We have read posts filed periodically on this blog by a co-blogger (I won’t mention any names but his initials are PG) about the “xenophobic” motives behind the “wicked brew of discriminatory laws” enacted by the “Know Nothings” of Prince William County. Chief among the ordinances passed back in 2007 and 2008 was a provision that required county police to inquire into the immigration status of people detained for a violation of state or local law.
The question of how to deal with undocumented workers in Prince William County flared into a heated controversy that not only outraged PG but attracted national attention. With the passage of three years, emotions have settled down. It is now appropriate to ask, how did things work out?
As it happens, the Center for Survey Research, a unit of the Weldon Cooper Center for the University of Virginia, has just published an exhaustive analysis at the request of the Prince William County Police Department, which funded the study. The report, “Evaluation Study of Prince William County Police Illegal Immigration Enforcement Policy,” provides a nuanced picture that will provide ammunition for both sides of the debate. But proponents of the policy are most likely to feel vindicated. (See the PowerPoint summary here.)
The seven authors concluded that the policy was “smoothly implemented” and the county experienced few of the dire consequences — overzealous enforcement by police, a flood of litigation — of which opponents warned. Hispanics were not subjected to a wave of invidious racial profiling. Of the roughly 3,000 suspected illegals checked by police between March 2008 and June 2010, 99% were confirmed to be illegal.
Moreover, the policy had a modestly beneficial effect on the crime rate. In 2009 illegals accounted for for 8% of the arrests for rape, 3% for robbery, 9% for aggravated assault, and 6% for larceny. The biggest impact was on arrests for public drunkenness, 22.4% of which involved illegals. Overall, crime rates trended down slightly in 2008 as compared to 2007. A modest decline in violent crimes departed from the experience of other municipalities in the Washington, D.C. region.
The numbers do not bear out the prejudices of those who painted illegals as especially inclined toward criminality. But neither do they support claims that undocumented workers are more likely to be law-abiding than native-born citizens.
The study could document no financial savings to Prince William taxpayers, undermining one of the claims that agitated the send-the-illegals-home movement. The number of English-as-Second-Language students leveled off but did not decline. Most other services are federally regulated or funded, and most are denied to illegal immigrants by federal law or county ordinance.
As for public nuisances, the experience was a mixed bag. Prince William experienced a dramatic decline in the number of complaints about parking in overcrowded properties — down 38% — and less loitering at day labor sites. Yet weed/tall grass violations doubled between 2006 and 2008.
To me, the most interesting finding came from polling data that tracked Hispanics’ attitudes toward the county police and the county generally. The percentage of Hispanic respondants who had a favorable view of Prince William’s quality of life and expressed trust in county government took a nose dive between 2007 and 2008, clearly reflecting the fears engendered by the controversy and the wave of accusations that the new policies were motivated by xenophobia, dislike of “brown people,” hostility to Hispanics and so on.
What is remarkable is how strongly the opinions of Hispanics have bounced back. In 2010, Hispanics were more likely than blacks and others (presumably whites and Asians) to “want to live in PWC 5 years from now.” Admittedly, Hispanics don’t feel as favorably about the county as they did before the controversy erupted, when their views were more positive than those of whites or blacks by an ever higher margin.
The UVa researchers concluded that “it IS possible for a local government to have an impact on its illegal immigration experience.” Hispanics, for the most part, have gotten over the controversy. Maybe the rest of us should, too.