Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Politics, Virginia Style

—

by

Robin Beres
in , , , , , , ,

by Bill Bolling

It has been said that if you love politics, Virgina is a great place to be because there is an election every year! This year, 2023, will be no exception with all 140 seats in the Virginia General Assembly up for grabs.

But 2023 will not be your typical General Assembly election year.

Thanks to the complete failure of the new Virginia Redistricting Commission to successfully complete its work, new legislative districts were drawn by the Supreme Court of Virginia, and to say that the Supreme Court shook things up would be a gross understatement.

For example, consider the Virginia State Senate.

Under the new redistricting plan approved by the Supreme Court, no less than 14 of the Senate’s incumbent legislators find themselves paired in districts with another incumbent Senator, often a Senator of the same political party.

Some of the notable pairings include:

SD 2 – Senator Emmett Hanger (R) and Senator Mark Obenshain (R) are paired in the same district.
SD 4 – Senator John Edwards (D) and Senator David Sutterlein (R) are paired in the same district.
SD 8 – Senator Steve Newman (R) and Senator Mark Peake (R) are paired in the same district.
SD 18 – Senator Louise Lucas (D) and Senator Lionel Spruill (D) are paired in the same district.
SD 20 – Senator Bill DeSteph (R) and Senator Linwood Lewis (D) are paired in the same district.
SD 26 – Senator Tommy Norment (R) and Senator Ryan McDougle (R) are paired in the same district.
SD 35 – Senator Dick Saslaw (D) and Senator David Marsden (D) are paired in the same district.
SD 39 – Senator Janet Howell (D) and Senator Barbara Boysko (D) are paired in the same district.

If this did not complicate matters enough, there are nine newly-created Senate districts that have no incumbent senator!

Obviously, these pairings are going to result in some Senators having to:
— Compete with other incumbent Senators, often of the same political party, in order to retain their seat;
— Move into new Senate districts; or
— Retire to avoid these conflicts.

And the same complexities that exist in the State Senate also exist in the House of Delegates.

All this means that the nomination contests this spring may be more interesting to watch than the general election that occurs in November.

It also means that the General Assembly will look very different in 2024 than it looks today.

Bill Bolling spent 22 years in elected office including eight years as Virginia’s 39th Lieutenant Governor. This column originally appeared in Bearing Drift and has been republished here with permission.

Share this article

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

Comments

21 responses to “Politics, Virginia Style”

  1. David Wojick Avatar
    David Wojick

    Fascinating disruption.

  2. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    God bless the Virginia Supreme Court! They visited karma upon the very politicians who spent years finagling boundaries and gerrymandering districts in a too-often successful effort to achieve permanent incumbency. Now, many of those politicians will be gone with the wind.

  3. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    This is not unlike imposition of term limits! Dominion is
    going to have to work their butt off with these newbies!

    And I have no doubt what-so-ever that Youngkin and crew are working fervently to “mine” the opportunities to get a GOP Senate!

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      I agree with Lt Gov Bolling … the Virginia Supreme Court implemented redistricting without any obvious partisan tilt. The new districts give both parties the opportunity to “mine” the new districts for political advantage.

  4. LesGabriel Avatar
    LesGabriel

    I object to the term “retire” when applied to elected officials. They either decide not to run again or they are defeated at the polls. Elected positions are not careers, but rather 2 or 4 year temporary positions and should be treated that way. Incumbency should not be taken into consideration when redistricting. I am in favor of it being done by computer using a random seed. Politicians can fight over and vote on the computer code, but no one will know the results at the time of the vote.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      I guess one thing to ask is – for any “career” or for any endeavor for some period of time, do folks get better at what they do? Setting aside the view that some see longevity in politics as corrupting and corruptive, is there such a thing as a more experience legislator writing “better” laws and perhaps less “bad” laws?

      Because legislation is what they do. It don’t matter if we “retire” them and put new ones in – they’re still gonna write laws… right?

    2. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      I agree on the importance of non-partisan redistricting. There are examples of computer software that will accomplish this quite well. However, my hat is off to the Virginia Supreme Court, which has managed to accomplish essentially the same result (presumably) without the need for any redistricting software.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        You gotta have the software DJ. You’re a data guy, you know this.

        You need the software to slice and dice the districts with the requisite population numbers.

        It would be an almost impossible job done manually.

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          But, as I understand it, there is special software that generates fair districts with no adjustments. The software itself is the arbiter of fair. I have no idea if the Va Supreme Court used that software or just assisting software.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I don’t know. I just assume there is a computer model and you can give it inputs to do certain things – like the number of districts you need, the precinct boundaries, etc.

          2. Stephen Haner Avatar
            Stephen Haner

            I suspect the special masters did it by hand, assisted by census data laid over the jurisdiction maps. In 1991 we GOP staffers were denied access to the state’s mapping software (which the D’s staff used) and drew a map with precinct lists and Excel.

    3. Charles D'Aulnais Avatar
      Charles D’Aulnais

      And yet, there are those who served just 6 years as a US Senator and draw 50% as retirement for life. Nice gig if you can get it.

      1. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        But that’s common in corporate America. Oh wait, no it’s not. But the military works that way. Oh, no it doesn’t. Teachers? Ha ha.

        Only America’s porcine political class gets deals like that.

        1. Charles D'Aulnais Avatar
          Charles D’Aulnais

          There is one publicly traded corporation I know that does pay 50% to its CEOs after just 5 years. It’s paid from a separate plan just for the CEO. I would bet they’re not alone.

  5. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    What this demonstrates is that when the politicians draw their own districts, self-preservation is the only goal. Compactness, contiguity and community of interest are out the window and the ugly results become the butt of jokes. Squiggly boundaries, strange combinations, precincts split right on the street of some target of the gerrymander….

    It seems the special masters really did ignore the home addresses of the incumbents. They screwed enough on both sides that it might not have been partisanship.

    Yes, huge shake up and the 2024 bodies will both contain another major wave of newbies. I also think fewer of the new districts will be hospitable to the MAGAaniacs now busily destroying what’s left of the GOP brand. They will win plenty of primaries, of course, and hand the districts to Ds. Just like last year with Congress.

    1. David Wojick Avatar
      David Wojick

      Anti-MAGA name calling is part of the breakup of the party. But I think the lack of Dem failure in Congress has more to do with successfully blaming inflation on Russia. If Carter had had a war to lean on he might have served a second term.

  6. James McCarthy Avatar
    James McCarthy

    The next step in enhancing “one person, one vote” is to eliminate the state Senate as redundant. The 100 delegate districts pose a competitive set of jurisdictions to test both political parties. One voter, one legislator.

  7. Charles D'Aulnais Avatar
    Charles D’Aulnais

    Michigan took redistricting away from their legislature last year and had it done by a nonpartisan committee.

    They just swore in a legislature that for the first time in a long while has representation that reflects the party membership of the population and the state wide vote.

    Some of you wouldn’t like that.

  8. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    I am not looking to the General Assembly elections in 2023. I believe the real disruption will occur at the Board of Supervisors and Board of Education elections. Nearly all of the seats in the commonwealth are up for election. 95 counties! A real conservative grassroots effort should be made by citizens to claim as many seats as possible. Don’t count on the Rep Party of VA. They might pull a Lucy on Citizen Charlie Brown.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/131f36437f49182cf48d8f9de72247d5f3aea54bae45ecab826e0bb045e8b305.jpg

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      Yes. Focus and build the talent pool at that level along with the GA elections. Redistricting always creates opportunities there, as well.

      1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead

        I know that here in Fauquier and also down in Halifax County, groups of everyday citizens have been quietly waiting for 2023 to come around. In both districts it looks like a good slate of fresh candidates. I hope it can bear fruit at the local level in the years to come.

Leave a Reply

Read More