Pencil Whipping Mass Transit

In my previous post, I objected to the Virginia state Senate voting to pump an additional $300 million into the Rail-to-Dulles heavy rail project without demanding more accountability from the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA), the entity in charge of overseeing design and construction. Now, let’s stop to think what happens when construction is complete and the Silver Line is handed over to the tender mercies of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) for day-to-day operation.

What do we know about WMATA? Well, as pointed out yesterday, the authority has racked up $13.3 billion in capital replacement and maintenance backlogs, including $6.5 billion for which it has not identified a funding source. That should come as no surprise now that we read in the Washington Times about WMATA’s “culture of complacence, incompetence and lack of diversity.”

WMATA is not only a union shop that resists efforts to increase productivity and efficiency, it has a clubby culture marked by rampant racial favoritism. People don’t talk about the favoritism because it doesn’t fit the dominant narrative of whites oppressing people of color. In WMATA’s case, blacks discriminate against whites and Hispanics, and men against women. As the Times leads its story:

Ninety-seven percent of the bus and train operators at [WMATA] are black, with only six white women out of more than 3,000 drivers, according to Metro documents — a lack of diversity at one of the region’s largest employers that has led to an acknowledgment of failure in affirmative-action documents and spawned a series of lawsuits.

With Metro’s budget chronically strained and reports of mismanagement coming more regularly than trains, interviews and internal records depict a likely root: an environment in which hardworking employees are actively excluded and those who rise are those willing to do the bare minimum — never causing a stir by flagging rampant safety violations, reporting malfeasance or proposing improvements.

Perhaps the most telling detail in the report is a description of the practice of “pencil whipping” — a practice so pervasive that there is a term for it. It refers to the fudging of inspections and other reports.

The state of Virginia and local governments served by WMATA help cover the organization’s operating deficit. When Rail-to-Dulles project is handed over to WMATA, the state will sink even deeper into the Metro morass. Unfortunately, if the recent past is prelude, Virginia will dish out funds to WMATA as passively as it has forked over money to MWAA.

Virginia will need more mass transit in the future as automobility becomes increasingly unaffordable. But the current model for mass transit in Virginia is badly broken, beyond hope of self-repair. Deficit-plagued bus and rail businesses will not survive a prolonged belt-tightening by state, local and federal government. What transportation options will Metro riders have if WMATA goes belly up?

Where are the supporters of mass transit? Why are they silent? Are they scared of stigmatizing their favored transportation mode? That’s happening already. They must join the clamor for reform or risk seeing mass transit swept away in a tide of red ink.

— JAB


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  1. Peter Galuszka Avatar
    Peter Galuszka

    Citing the Washington Times piece that you do is really not only bad for your argument, it is very bad taste. I can’t recall reading a more overtly racist, badly-reported piece of journalism.
    A “white PhD” is passed over for promotion by a “barely literate” black man, according to several unnamed sources. Who is the PHd? Who is the “barely literate” black guy? Who are the sources? All the report says that that lots of people at Metro are African-American. That’s hardly a surprise considering that DC was majority black for years.
    This is racial profiling on steroids. It is really disappointing that you would choose this to buttress your arguments.

  2. Overtly racist? Badly reported? I’ve seen a lot of journalism and commentary accusing whites of racism on the basis of a whole lot less — like “code words” and “dog whistles” of the accuser’s imagination.

  3. Alright.. here’s the problem.

    Dulles is not cost effective – compared to what?

    Is there a comparison of similar projects and a “sweet spot” number with a rank listing of projects by most cost-effective?

    It seems to me that everyone has their own opinion but there is a darth of real data … here.

    As far as the PLA “supplement” goes… let’s put some meat on the bones as to how much it adds to the costs and then some comparisons with other costs (like the proposed underground station at Dulles).

    Got DATA?

  4. re: paying for ones location costs

    re: METRO

    do these two “relate”?

  5. Larry, as I understand the federal laws and regulations, mass transit projects are funded based on the number of new transit trips and the associated costs. The more new trips, per dollar of cost, the better the project and the more likely it gets federal funding. Heavy rail, the most costly form of transit, works well in extremely dense areas, such as New York, Chicago, Downtown D.C., Boston.
    Frank Wolf originally proposed Bus Rapid Transit on a dedicated right-of-way (the DTR median) for the Dulles Corridor. with the possibility of converting to rail in the future if and when rail became cost effective. Wolf’s plan would have provided 90% federal funding, as BRT met all federal standards.
    But BRT could not justify urban densities in Tysons at 6.0 FARs and higher. Our local Fairfax County officials allowed the Tysons landowners to hijack the project and the plan was changed to rail through Tysons with three stations. But the rail project, even assuming higher densities in Tysons with rail, did not pass the fed’s cost/benefit test. I’ve talked to career Federal Transit Administration officials and Wolf’s and Moran’s staff members about this and received confirmation of what happened. In an honest moment, every elected official in NoVA will confirm this.
    Heavy rail is so costly that the federal share, $900 M, for Phase I paid less and less of the total cost. The local share of heavy rail is being paid by a special tax district in Tysons and part of Reston. That share, like the fed’s share, is capped. Here at $450 M. Under Warner and Kaine, the state kicked in $50 M in cash and had the CTB agree that MWAA could build the project, control the Toll Road and make DTR users pay the uncapped balance.
    MWAA, realizing it probably cannot directly require a PLA, has offered a 10% bidding advantage for any prime that will promise to use a PLA. The Phase II costs are estimated at $2.7 billion, so a $2.97 B bid beats a $2.7 billion and change bid.
    The higher the tolls, the more vehicles leave the Toll Road and the worse traffic on other streets get. Toss in the added traffic from normal growth and from the new construction in Tysons and the already terrible congestion in Falls Church, McLean and Vienna becomes worse. Drivers leaving the DTR also creates more risk MWAA cannot pay off the bonds to build Dulles Rail. MWAA admitted several years ago that it did not have much wiggle room on tolls. Adding costs to Dulles Rail by any means, including a PLA or a PLA bidding credit, puts more gasoline close to the fire.

  6. Peter Galuszka Avatar
    Peter Galuszka

    “I’ve seen a lot of journalism and commentary accusing whites of racism on the basis of a whole lot less — like “code words” and “dog whistles” of the accuser’s imagination.”

    Any examples?

  7. @tmt – where are the actual comparisons? One of the problems with this issue is the deluge of anecdotal info.

    like more than a few issues these days.. people align themselves not on the facts but on the politics.

  8. ” The higher the tolls, the more vehicles leave the Toll Road and the worse traffic on other streets get.”

    I’m a skeptic on this.

    I think a point is reached when the pain of congestion competes with the pain of tolls and reduced travel time.

    when it takes an hour to go 3 miles.. people will bail.

  9. I have been told by an FTA official that the agency will not release any agency analysis of any proposal project. What becomes public is a decision to fund or not to fund the project. A former client of mine, now deceased, attempted to FOIA the back-up papers, but the agency refused to provide them, claiming an exemption under the law. Much of what I learned came from discussion with Moran’s and Wolf’s staff members. I have no reason to doubt them, but fully understand your skepticism.
    I am extremely concerned about what MWAA and its consultants think are the price points where significant numbers of drivers abandon the DTR and the number of those that drive other streets. I understand the Auditor to the Fairfax County BoS is looking into those issues. A number of us are trying to get this information made public.
    A board member of the Reston Citizens Association has prepared a paper suggesting MWAA has over-estimated the revenue it will get from the tolls, which seems to confirm some of my fears. Assuming you have the same email address you did in October 2009, I have just sent you a copy of that study. I believe it is one of the motivators of the Fairfax County inquiry.

  10. I’m not surprised that data that could be used for comparison and ranking is suppressed.

    I’m also not surprised that MWAA will do the same thing that VDOT does in making traffic claims that support their pre-determined desired outcome.

    I’ve begun reviewing the paper and it’s a good one – for a citizen group – but it lacks the smoking gun analysis from a credible entity that does such analyses.

    It basically speculates that drivers will leave DTR at a particular price point and divert to local roads.

    this takes a full-blown investor-grade analysis to generate reliable data IMHO.

    Whether people divert or not and in what numbers depends a lot on factors like origins and destinations and the time the divert takes.

    Obviously if the divert added 90 minutes to a commute – it would not be used.

    People might decide to no longer live where a $20 one way toll is required but you’re talking about people who make 100-200K a year and a $20 toll is more an annoyance than a deal killer…again IMHO.

    at the end of the day – you can bet on this.. MWAA will ..one way or the other ..figure out what the toll sweet spot is and will adjust their financing accordingly. The real question is where are they getting their financing and are those folks themselves doing an investor-grade analysis to protect their own investment.

  11. thinking about this more…..

    whether or not a transit project is or is not cost-effective and the process for determining cost-effectiveness of transit – anywhere – is a separate issue from the adequacy or equity of how it is funded.

    the two are inevitably entwined but from a political perspective.

    People who are concerned/opposed to DTR because of the toll equity issue or the PLA issue would quite likely be opposed to DTR even if it was a cost-effective project.

    so the politics of it are that opposition to tolls and to PLAs focus on cost effectiveness without ever really dealing with it in a substantive fashion.

    Sure they mention the FTA judgement but beyond that they cannot show specifics much less characterize it comparatively with other projects.

    Is it grossly cost ineffective or is it almost?

    so… the opposition for the most part really does not care if the project is grossly cost ineffective or just a tiny bit so.

    the cost-effective argument is just one of several points that constitute what really boils down to – political opposition.

    I will leave a little daylight on my assessment.

    I think it could be legitimately claimed that no one has really proved that it is “almost” cost-effective either.

  12. If cost effective benchmarks were actually made available.. they could become a powerful tool for knowing when additional costs for infrastructure are “investments” or cost escalators.

    without them – the process essentially becomes political and about each persons particular like or dislike about it – rather than the overall utility of the project.

  13. […] take on  phase II, and beyond, from blogger Bacon’s Rebellion. Share this:FacebookTwitterLike this:LikeBe the first to like this […]

  14. constructionandlaborguy Avatar
    constructionandlaborguy

    TMT’s analysis is pretty accurate. The fed’s claim deliberative privilege to deny FOIA claims like the one cited above. Everyone I have talked to about this project says it was a miracle the feds gave money to Phase 1.

    If you believe in markets and supply and demand, there will be a price point where tolls generate the maximum amount of revenue before DTR traffic starts to leak and revenue decreases. The price point varies based on a number of factors like the economy, growth, population and condition/commute of other roads. The secret is to stay as close to possible to that price point. The studies attempt to predict the price point, but it is a rather inexact science, especially when the financing is structured over decades and variables are almost impossible to predict with accuracy.

    BTW, great video.

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