Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

  • More Bad News on Coronavirus

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    All I need is the air that I breathe. Recent research indicates that the coronavirus can live in air for 3 hours post aerosolization. The Hill reports that, “A study awaiting peer review from scientists at Princeton University, the University of California-Los Angeles and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) posted online Wednesday indicated that the COVID-19 virus could remain viable in the air up to 3 hours post aerosolization, while remaining alive on plastic and other surfaces for up to three days.” Previous media reports maintained that the Coronavirus required direct human contact in order to be transmitted. To be clear, this research has not been peer reviewed. However, public policy decisions would seem to be impacted if the Coronavirus can survive for hours suspended in air.

    Overstaying your welcome. Researchers have evidence that people infected with the Coronavirus will remain infectious longer than previously believed. The Hill reports on a study by The Lancet, a British medical journal, indicating that people suffering from COVID-19 may be able to spread the disease for up to 37 days. If true, this finding calls into question the previously held expert opinion that recommended an isolation period of 14 days after infection.

    Cancel culture. Cancellations of anything and almost everything continue to pile up. Examples include Ireland closing its schools and colleges, the NCAA Men’s National Basketball Tournament being held without fans in the audience, Italy closing almost all shops (other than grocery stores and pharmacies) and the NBA suspending its season starting today.

    Implications for Virginia. Virginia’s response to the COVID-19 breakout remains sporadic at best. (more…)

  • Does Virginia Have Enough Hospital Beds?

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    Sources: Virginia Health Information, and Google for HCA hospitals.

    by James A. Bacon

    Now that the COVID-19 virus has arrived in Virginia, key institutions are reacting. Several universities are extending their spring breaks; others are shifting to online classes. Event organizers are cancelling their events, from book fairs to health fairs. Major employers are telling employees to work remotely. Jails are suspending visitations to inmates. Hospitals and nursing homes are restricting the number of visitors.

    That’s exactly what it takes to slow the spread of the coronavirus. There is no stopping the virus, as highly contagious as it is, from reaching epidemic proportions in the state, The strategy is to delay, delay, delay, thus avoiding a surge of severely ill patients to hospitals that lack the capacity to handle them. Realistically, the best case scenario is to spread out the epidemic temporally to minimize the number of COVID-19 patients treated in hospitals at any given time. (See the graph in Don Rippert’s most recent post here to get a visual sense of how this works.)

    By my count, there are 4,662 acute-care hospital beds in the Richmond region within 20 miles of downtown. According to national figures, the bed occupancy rate runs slightly above 70%. That’s better than in the 1990s when national healthcare policy deemed high bed utilization rates a key to controlling health care costs and occupancy rates ran above 90%.

    Correction: The table above includes double-counted beds for HCA hospitals. Chippenham and Johnston-Willis are part of CJW Medical center, while Henrico Doctor’s-Retreat is part of Henrico Doctor’s. A more accurate account of licensed acute care hospital beds in the Richmond region is 3,333. I have not amended the text below to reflect these numbers.

    If we assume that 30% of the Richmond region’s hospital beds are empty on average, that implies that local hospitals have about 1,400 beds to spare. Is that enough? (more…)

  • Sweet 16 (Tax Bills) Will Cost Virginians Billions

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    By Steve Haner

    What will this year’s General Assembly cost you in taxes? Here are at least 16 bills approved by the 2020 General Assembly that create or raise taxes on Virginians or authorize a local government to do so. No one told Virginians at the start of session that major tax increases were coming, and there is little recognition of what has now happened. It is time to tally the bill.

    If anybody would or could run the fiscal projections on these 16 tax bills, they might combine into a major tax hike comparable to those in 2004 and 2013. Over several years this will cost families or businesses billions of dollars, but most will be collected by wholesalers (cigarettes and fuel) or too deeply buried on receipts to see.  Assessments on business eventually get passed down to the customer: you.  (more…)

  • Another Critical Coronavirus Graph

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    By DJ Rippert

    Timing. As Jim Bacon wrote, “Now comes COVID-19. Everyone is in a blind panic. The concern may be overwrought, whipped up by the media. Or maybe things could get worse than anyone could imagine. Nobody knows. Uncertainty reigns.” Jim is right. Uncertainty does reign. But what are the costs of indecision if things do get worse than anybody can imagine? The graph at the left qualitatively describes how early action can change the shape of the infection curve and avoid a peak that overwhelms our health care system. Do Virginia’s leaders understand this?

    (more…)

  • Amazon to Create 1,500 Jobs in Hampton Roads

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    by James A. Bacon

    Amazon has announced the launch of two state-of-the-art operations facilities in Hampton Roads that will create 1,500 jobs. One is a multi-story robotics fulfillment center in Suffolk, creating 1,000 jobs, and the other a 650,000-square-foot processing center in Chesapeake, creating 500 jobs. Both operations are scheduled to open in 2021.

    Since 2010, Amazon invested more than $34 billion in Virginia through its local fulfillment centers, cloud infrastructure, and research facilities. The company operations network in Virginia encompasses more than 10 fulfillment centers, sortation centers, and delivery stations across the state, plus 13 Whole Foods Markets and three Prime Now Hubs.

    “We celebrate the addition of two new, high-tech facilities in Suffolk and Chesapeake that will positively benefit the entire Hampton Roads region,” said Governor Ralph Northam in a prepared statement.

    It’s not clear from the press release if the Amazon facilities will be serving the local market, as many other Virginia facilities are doing, or if they will deliver goods to a broader geographic area. The statement also did not say how much Amazon will be investing in the distribution centers. Typically, state-of-the-art facilities require investments in the multiple tens of millions of dollars, sometimes more. Regardless, any time a company announces the creation of 1,500 jobs, that’s good news for Virginia. (more…)

  • COVID-19 as Boost to Telework, Distance Learning

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    by James A. Bacon

    The COVID-19 virus may change our lives in ways we can only begin to imagine. Believe it or not, some of them might even be positive. Consider the impact of today’s stories upon Virginia’s higher-ed and transportation systems.

    A  boost to distance learning. The University of Virginia, Virginia Tech, and James Madison University may follow the lead of Harvard and other Ivy League institutions in moving classes online.

    Virginia Tech sent a letter to faculty members Monday urging them to prepare options for delivering coursework outside the classroom, reports Virginia Business. “We must accelerate planning necessary to sustain our academic mission, including the use of online platforms to deliver instruction,” said Provost Cyril Clark. “Please use this spring break when most classes are not in session to become familiar with strategies to continue teaching through disruptions and to plan for the possibility that students and faculty may not be able to meet for course sessions in person.”

    “We are looking at how do we move our courses online,” said JMU spokeperson Caitlyn Read. “Our libraries and our online learning centers have ratcheted up support services for faculty who are looking … to get classes online.

    Update: UVa has made the decision to move all classes online. So has Virginia Tech.

    Schools out for summer. Schools out forever! OK, that quote from rocker Alice Cooper might be a slight exaggeration. But Fairfax County Public Schools, which serves 188,000 students, will close all of its nearly 200 schools for “staff development day/student holiday” next Monday, the Washington Post reports. The purpose: “to provide an opportunity for staff to prepare for the possibility of distance learning in the event of a school(s) closure.” (more…)

  • Virginia’s Vengeful Politicians

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    LaBravia Jenkins

    by Kerry Dougherty

    Terry McAuliffe is a terrific politician. If you’ve met the former Virginia governor you know what I mean. He’s smooth. He oozes charm.

    Like many skilled politicians, underneath that affable exterior lurks a ruthless operator with an elephantine memory.

    Just ask LaBravia Jenkins, the well-respected commonwealth’s attorney for the City of Fredericksburg. It appears that she may have lost a bid to become a general district court judge last week over a four-year-old grudge harbored by McAuliffe and his disciples.

    Another commonwealth’s attorney, Chuck Slemp, of Wise County was also bumped, apparently for the same reason.

    In 2016, Jenkins was one of 43 prosecutors who signed a friend-of-the-court brief opposing McAuliffe’s blanket restoration of voting rights to more than 200,000 felons.

    The Virginia Supreme Court agreed and found McAuliffe’s sweeping move unconstitutional. Governors are required to restore rights on a case-by-case basis. (more…)

  • Bring the World’s Best Hospitals to Virginia

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    Mayo Clinic — why not aim for the best?

    by James C. Sherlock

    Virginia does not host a single one of the world’s best hospitals.[1] But America does. Mayo Clinic and Cleveland Clinic have been ranked at the top of such ratings for as long as I can remember. Neither of them are here in the Commonwealth, I believe Virginia could change that.

    Mayo Clinic is top-ranked for quality more often than any other health care organization.It has medical centers in Rochester, Minn., Jacksonville, Fla., and Phoenix, Ariz. In addition, Mayo Clinic partially owns and operates the Mayo Clinic Health System in Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

    Cleveland Clinic has countless facilities all over Ohio and locations in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, London, in Charleston WV, Toronto,  Las Vegas and Elko, NV and dozens of locations in Florida.

    With the exception of Cleveland Clinic’s Charleston, W.Va., outpost on the periphery of its Ohio core, neither system has a mid-Atlantic presence.

    The business case for attracting Mayo Clinic and Cleveland Clinic to locate here must include: (more…)

  • A Critical Coronavirus Graph

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    By DJ Rippert

    OK, Boomer. A study conducted last month from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention provides statistics about the lethality of COVID-19.  Those statistics were analyzed by Business Insider.  You can see those statistics in the graph on the left. Younger people have a one in 10,000 (0.01%) chance of dying from the flu and a one in 500 (0.2%) chance of dying from COVID-19. So, COVID-19 is 20 times more lethal for a 15 year old than the flu. That mortality rate rises quickly as the victims get older. Between one and two 55 year olds out of 100 who contract COVID-19 will die of the disease. That’s 22 times the mortality rate of the flu. However, the real jump occurs in those who are 60 and above. Almost 15% of those aged 80+ will die if they contract the coronavirus.

    Old Dominion. The average age of a Virginia resident is 38.1 years. There are 142,300 Virginians over the age of 80, 518,900 between 70 and 79 and 934,400 between 60 and 69. That’s 1,595,600 Virginians (19% of the population) with more than a 3.5% chance of dying if they develop COVID-19.

    Hysteria? There is no vaccine against COVID-19. There is no cure. The only way for a 60+ year old Virginian to avoid a 3.6% – 14.8% chance of dying is to avoid the disease. The real odds of dying are the infection rate multiplied by the mortality rate. But once you contract the disease you are far more likely to die than if you contracted the flu. Is there any activity on Earth that a rational person would undertake with a 3.6% – 14.8% chance of dying? For comparison purposes an American sent to fight in Vietnam had about a 0.5% chance of dying. Given those odds, is it really “hysteria” to cancel fan participation at sporting events or to insist that people in contact with the public wear gloves? Our only defense is containment and containment comes with a fair amount of inconvenience. What is the alternative? Hope, as they say, is not a strategy.

  • National, State and Local COVID-19 Response Readiness

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    by James C. Sherlock

    I spent a lot of time at the national level working in the National Incident Management System (NIMS) on policy, training, exercises, communications and after-action analysis of operations including Katrina. I offer this essay as a primer with a goal to bolster citizens’ faith in that system as it relates to COVID-19. The foundations are in place.

    The first principle to remember is that the city or county manager, mayor or county executive does not work for the Governor, and the Governor does not work for the President, so emergency response is based on cooperation, coordination, and common frameworks for action, not formal command and control.

    The National Response Plan (NRP) is an application of the National Incident Management System (NIMS). The NIMS provides the doctrine, concepts, principles, terminology, and organizational processes needed for incident management and coordination at all levels. The NRP, using the framework of the NIMS, provides the coordinating structure and mechanisms for national-level policy and operational direction for Federal support to State, local, and tribal incident managers, federal-to-federal support and for exercising direct federal authorities and responsibilities as appropriate under the law.

    The National Pandemic Flu Strategy[1], the National Strategy Implementation Plan[2]  and the CMS Pandemic Influenza Operations and Response Plan[3] are active documents actively pursued. (more…)

  • Spy V. Spy in Virginia Politics?

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    Erik Prince

    By Peter Galuszka

    Erik Prince, the highly controversial former Navy SEAL and founder of the security firm Blackwater, recruited spies to infiltrate liberal groups and the 2018 political campaign of U.S. Rep Abigail Spanberger, according to media reports.

    His role was disclosed in a lawsuit deposition involving the right-wing group Project Veritas that has tried to work covertly to embarrass journalists and others, according to the Washington Examiner.

    Spanberger, a Democrat, knocked off U.S. Rep. Dave Brat, a conservative favorite, in the 7th District, which includes parts of the Richmond suburbs. Her victory stunned political watchers since the district historically has voted  for Republicans. She had worked previously as an undercover operative for the CIA on issues including terrorism and nuclear proliferation.

    Prince is alleged to have hired Richard Seddon, a former intelligence officer with MI-6, for various covert political missions. In one case, Seddon allegedly recruited Marisa Jorge, a Liberty University graduate to work in Spanberger’s campaign. (more…)

  • Yanking Drivers’ License Over Unpaid Court Costs Is Inhumane

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    by Kerry Daugherty

    Many years ago, OK, 11 to be exact, I foolishly zipped along Rt. 58 through Emporia.

    Yep, the speeding capital of the Old Dominion.

    I saw the flashing lights in my rearview, heard the screaming sirens and prayed that the cop was chasing one of the cars ahead of me.

    He wasn’t.

    It’s one thing for out-of-staters to get nabbed along that rural ribbon of alternating 45, 55 and 60 mph speed limits with a cop car lurking behind every bush, but those of us who live in Virginia should know better.

    Despite begging the officer for just a warning, and explaining that I had a good excuse: I’d been listening to a football game on the radio and Ole Miss just scored a touchdown on LSU. I’d accidentally mashed the accelerator in celebration. (more…)

  • To Fight COVID-19 in Virginia, Give Public More Data

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    by James A. Bacon

    The COVID-19 virus has escaped containment, and it has reached Virginia. Authorities have identified two documented cases of the COVID-19 virus: one a U.S. Marine stationed at Ft. Belvoir who apparently was infected during an overseas business trip, and the other a Fairfax County man in his 80s who picked up the illness on a cruise ship in Egypt.

    Most likely, the two cases represent the tip of the epidemiological iceberg. People can carry the virus for two weeks without showing symptoms, and the ability of state public health authorities has been hampered by a shortage of testing capabilities. According to the Virginia Department of Health coronavirus website, the state has tested only 44 people to date. The shortage of testing kits, which should be alleviated in the near future, has meant that public health officials have utilized their limited supply sparingly.

    In other words, there could be dozens if not hundreds of people infected with COVID-19 today in the Old Dominion, and we just don’t know it. And we likely won’t know until they start showing up in hospital emergency rooms a week or two from now.

    In theory, there are other ways to track the spread of the virus, if only indirectly: such as monitoring the number of patients admitted to doctors’ offices and hospital emergency rooms with respiratory ailments consistent with COVID-19 symptoms.  If the number of patients reporting respiratory issues is surging above and beyond what is normal for this time of year, we can surmise that COVID-19 is largely responsible. And we can tell where the virus appears to be spreading the most rapidly. Such information can inform local authorities and citizens on the need to take measures such as closing schools, canceling events, and working from home. (more…)

  • Virginia Has No Campaign Contribution Limits — And It Shows

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    by James C. Sherlock

    Did anyone notice the reporting last year that Virginia’s 2019 state election drew unprecedented amounts of special interest money from out of state, most of it targeted to turn the state blue? It worked.

    Federal laws regulate the use of money in federal elections. The states implement and enforce campaign finance laws for state-level candidates. Virginia is one of only nine states[1] with no limits on any of the five major categories (see below) of political contributions. Virginia’s combination of state elections in years in which there are no federal elections, lack of limits on campaign contributions and our status as a purple state make us the biggest target of all for out-of-state campaign money, before and after elections.

    The most widely cited[2] categories of influence-related giving are:

    1. Individual to candidate contributions
    2. State Party to candidate contributions
    3. PAC to candidate contributions
    4. Corporate to candidate contributions
    5. Union to candidate contributions

    Money Laundering. Numbers 2 and 3 in the list above represent legalized money laundering. Give a ton of money to a state party or a PAC and those organizations give it to the candidates. To that list I would add candidate-to-candidate contributions rampant in Virginia. Give a ton of money to a candidate who doesn’t need it and he or she will give it to others who do, increasing the donor politician’s influence over the votes of the recipients. I called that “Speaker’s money” in my last essay[3]. (more…)

  • Electric Yellow School Buses? Pure Green Grease

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    By Steve Haner

    Having voted to give Dominion Energy Virginia a blank check to spend billions of your money on offshore wind turbines, the Virginia House of Delegates will vote today to provide hundreds of millions more from your pockets for electric school buses.

    Last week the House defeated a similar bill, twice. It received only 35 votes the first time and 44 votes the second. The response from the utility and the Senate patron was to introduce a new bill “Thursday,” after she received unanimous consent from her fellow senators.  (more…)