Bacon's Rebellion

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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Latest

COVID-19 Waivers Update

Posted on

March 24, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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4

comments

by James C. Sherlock

I provide here an update on the status of waivers of federal health care laws in response to the COVID-19 crisis. All of the source materials are official government websites.

On March 13, the President declared a public health emergency under the authority vested in him by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the National Emergencies Act and consistent with section 1135 of the Social Security Act (SSA).

Under that proclamation, the Secretary of HHS has exercised the authority under section 1135 of the SSA to temporarily waive or modify certain requirements of the Medicare, Medicaid, and State Children’s Health Insurance programs and of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act Privacy Rule throughout the duration of the public health emergency declared in response to the COVID‑19 outbreak. (more…)
COVID-19 and the Fear Factor

Posted on

March 24, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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17

comments

by James A. Bacon

The COVID-19 virus poses a real threat to the public health. I’m not minimizing that. According to the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus map, more than 17,000 people around the world have died from the disease. But is the magnitude of the health threat so great that it warrants shutting down half the U.S. economy?

I don’t know the answer. But, then, I don’t think anyone else does either. What I do know is that humans are subject to a herd mentality. We are not so different from the wildebeests in the photo above. You may not see the lion stalking the herd, but if all around you are stampeding in panic, you’d be a damned fool not to join the stampede. And it strikes me that Governor Ralph Northam, who had been relatively restrained in his approach to the virus, panicked yesterday when he put into place some of the most restrictive measures anywhere in the country to slow the spread of the virus. (The only saving grace: State-owned liquor stores are classified as essential businesses to keep open!)

As the Governor’s epidemiologist acknowledged yesterday, Virginia does not yet have an epidemiological model to forecast the spread of COVID-19. Northam is making critical decisions on the basis of incomplete data. What he does know is what’s in the headlines. Is it a coincidence that he acted so forcefully the day after the Washington Post characterized him as under-performing Maryland’s Governor Larry Hogan and Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser in dealing with the epidemic? The article — commentary disguised as news — equated effectiveness with aggressive action.

Perhaps history will prove Northam acted correctly. But it’s critical at a time like this, with lives and the economy hanging in the balance, for someone to push back — to offer an alternative to herd thinking and media hysteria. So, let’s take a look at the limited data we have to see whether the hysteria is justified. (more…)
A Look at Richmond and COVID-19

Posted on

March 24, 2020

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Peter Galuszka

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13

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By Peter Galuszka

Here is a roundup story I wrote for Style Weekly that was published today that explains the effects of COVID-19 on the Richmond area. Hopefully, BR readers will find it of interest.

It was a tough piece to report. The impacts of the deadly virus are very complicated and multi-faceted. An especially hard part was trying to keep with the fast-changing news, notably the number of new cases and deaths. We were updating right up until the story closed Monday afternoon. It was hard to talk to people with social-distancing and closings.

The experience shows the delicate balancing act between taking tough measures to stem the contagion and keeping the economy going. My view is that tough measures are needed because without them, it will all be much worse, particularly more illness and death as the experience in Italy has shown.

Incredibly, our utterly incompetent president, Donald Trump, now wants to focus on the economy more than taking necessary containment steps. It’s far too soon for that. Regrettably, a number of Bacon’s Rebellion commenters are sounding the same irresponsible tune in keeping with their big business and anti-regulation laud of free market capitalism. (more…)
Ralph Northam’s Power Play

Posted on

March 24, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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52

comments

by Kerry Dougherty

Has the governor of Virginia gone mad?

After several weeks of acting with remarkable restraint, Ralph Northam on Monday suddenly gave in to his tyrannical impulses.

He sternly ordered all schools closed for the rest of the academic year.

Someone give this man a calendar. It’s MARCH. On the 13th of this month he ordered the schools closed for two weeks.

“I recognize this will pose a hardship on many families, but closing our schools for two weeks will not only give our staff time to clean and disinfect school facilities, it will help slow the spread of this virus,” he said at the time.

He jumped from that to this?

With one wave of his imperious little hand, The Richmond Times-Dispatch reports, Northam became only the second governor in the nation – after Kansas’ – to close schools through the end of the school year.

What’s the hurry, Governor? It’s not a race. (more…)
Options Available for Waiving Federal Healthcare Laws

Posted on

March 24, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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9

comments

James C. Sherlock

I provide here an update on the status of waivers of federal health care laws in response to the COVID-19 crisis. All of the source materials are official government websites.

On March 13, President Trump declared a public health emergency under the authority vested in him by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the National Emergencies Act.

Under that proclamation, the Secretary of HHS has exercised the authority under section 1135 of the SSA to temporarily waive or modify certain requirements of the Medicare, Medicaid, and State Children’s Health Insurance programs and of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act Privacy Rule throughout the duration of the public health emergency declared in response to the COVID‑19 outbreak. (more…)
Yes, the COVID-19 Trendline Looks Exponential

Posted on

March 23, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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28

comments

John Butcher, publisher of Cranky’s Blog, has turned his attention from K-12 education to the COVID-19 virus. In scrutinizing yesterday’s data in the previous post, I asked if the spread of the WuFlu was decelerating. He has answered the call, submitting the graph above, which I shall interpret for you in a moment.

We’re not getting any such analysis from the Northam administration. Indeed, in a press conference today, Dr. Lilian Peake, chief epidemiologist on Governor Ralph Northam’s COVID-19 leadership team, acknowledged, “We don’t have a specific projection now. But we are working on a model, and so we hope to have more information about that later in the week.” (See the video, 28:30 minute mark.)

That’s an extraordinary admission — after all this time the administration has no model for forecasting the spread of the coronavirus! In other words, Northam is making decisions to close schools, shutter non-essential businesses, and otherwise throttle the life and economy of the state of Virginia based on … what? His gut instinct?

The Governor may not have an epidemiological model, but he does have access to the same data that we do (if not more), and, in Cranky’s reckoning, the epidemic is spreading at an exponential rate, which, one can argue, might justify his latest draconian decisions. And any blip, like the one I highlighted in my post earlier today, does not seem terribly significant. The chart above shows the increase on a logarithmic scale in the total number of WuFlu cases in Virginia. The next chart shows the increase in the number of new cases. (more…)
COVID-19 Update: Whoah! Is the Spread Decelerating?

Posted on

March 23, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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69

comments

Media headlines are focusing on the fact that three more patients died of the COVID-19 virus in Virginia yesterday. But Virginia Department of Health data reported only 38 new cases and six new hospitalizations. The numbers represent a reversal of what had been an exponential rate of increase in confirmed cases. I don’t want to make too much of one day’s data, but this actually looks like good news. Perhaps Virginia’s social-distancing measures are working.

Here’s another potential sign of improvement. Testing kits for COVID-19 in Virginia became far more readily available beginning March 17 when the number of tests jumped to 539 from 81 the previous day. By March 19, 645 Virginians were tested. But since then, the number of tests has slid — to only 360 yesterday.

Why the diminishing number of tests? Is there a shortage of testing kits? That would seem to fly against evidence of increasing availability, especially among private labs and hospitals like the University of Virginia, which have developed their own tests. Are fewer people meeting the criteria for tests? If so, could that be a sign that the virus is not spreading as rapidly?

— JAB
Act Now to Bring State Budget in Line with Reality

Posted on

March 23, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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20

comments

by James A. Bacon

About 18 months ago Secretary of Finance Aubrey Layne conducted an analysis of state government finances to see how they would hold up under the stress of another recession of the magnitude of the Great Recession. Hardly anyone thought that a downturn was in the cards; the economy was chugging along just fine. But you never know, and Layne wanted to know how vulnerable the commonwealth was in case the unexpected occurred.

Virginia’s General Fund budget, he concluded, would experience three years of “fairly significant” declines in revenues:

Year 1 — $2.6 billion
Year 2 — $3.7 billion
Year 3 — $3 billion

A cumulative decline of $9.3 billion over three years would be devastating. That’s why Layne became the most forceful advocate in the Northam administration of building up the state’s Revenue Stabilization Fund and financial reserves. Last fall, when the administration began working on its biennial budgets for the 2020 and 2021 budgets, Governor Ralph Northam was forecasting that the commonwealth would build up its reserves to $1.6 billion. “We start out this budget cycle in a good place,” he told the General Assembly money committees last August.

Then came an event that no one predicted, a true black swan: the COVID-19 epidemic. (more…)
Northam Last in COVID Crisis Management? Based on What Evidence?

Posted on

March 23, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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16

comments

by James A. Bacon

This morning I was intending to compose a post critical of Governor Ralph Northam’s approach to the COVID-19 crisis. But then I read this article in the Washington Post: “Grading the region’s coronavirus response: Hogan 1st, Northam last, and Bowser in the middle.” Much against my nature, I feel compelled to defend the governor.

It is the unstated thesis of WaPo columnist Robert McCarthy that an activist approach to combating the COVID-19 virus is called for. He finds Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R) the most praise-worthy, followed by Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D), for being quick and aggressive in ordering measures to compel social distancing.

“One might assume that a governor who spent most of his career as a physician would be among the first to press for quick, decisive action to combat a deadly, fast-spreading infectious disease,” McCartney writes. Yet “Northam was the last of the three to close the state’s schools, order a state of emergency and seek activation of the National Guard. He still hasn’t joined Maryland and the District to order a full shutdown of on-site eating and drinking in restaurants and bars.”

And to that, I say, good for Northam. (more…)
Freeman Dyson, Scientific Consensus and Virginia Politics

Posted on

March 23, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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12

comments

Freeman Dyson. What’s a “scientific consensus” without him?

by Irfan K. Ali

One of the most brilliant scientists of the 20^th century, Freeman Dyson, recently passed away. This most unassuming man hobnobbed with the likes of Albert Einstein, Richard Feynman, John von Neumann, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and other giants of science and technology. He was a true giant in the world of science.

The excerpt below from The Institute for Advanced Study (IAS), where he worked until his death at age 96, describes his greatest contribution to science:

In the spring of 1948, Dyson accompanied [Richard] Feynman on a fabled cross-country road trip that culminated in one of the most remarkable breakthroughs of 20^th century physics. After being steeped in the work of Feynman for months and spending six weeks listening to Julian Schwinger’s ideas in Ann Arbor, Dyson was able to prove the equivalency of their two competing theories of quantum electrodynamics (QED), which describes how light and matter interact. Dyson recalled the moment of discovery as a “flash of illumination on the Greyhound bus.” He had been traveling alone for more than 48 hours, making his way to Princeton, NJ to begin his first Membership at the Institute for Advanced Study.

Dyson wanted to have nothing to do with the so called “scientific consensus”. Had he lived in the times of Giordano Bruno, a brilliant 17^th century scientist, he may have met a similar fate of being burned at the stake for his unapologetic skepticism about the notion of man-made climate change. (more…)
Is Northam Up to the COVID-19 Challenge?

Posted on

March 23, 2020

by

Peter Galuszka

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12

comments

By Peter Galuszka

Governor Ralph Northam has approached the COVID-19 pandemic with a light touch that has drawn criticism for doing too little too late.

He has declared a state of emergency, banned gatherings of more than 100 people and closed schools until well into April. But he’s also not closed restaurants and businesses or done much to make sure that Virginian’s health workers have enough testing kits and respirators and personal protective equipment, such as masks and hazardous material suits.

Consequently, health workers have been slicing up bandanas or reusing face masks against manufacturers’ warnings to protect themselves from the deadly virus.

The Washington Post has compared the responses of regional leaders in an article this morning. Larry Hogan, Maryland’s Republican governor, got high marks for his pro-active, can-do attitude that saw him taking tougher policies earlier on. The Post gave Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser a little below Hogan in her response.

But, the Post reported, “If you’ve got Maryland and D.C. shutting down, but we aren’t, that cuts down tremendously on what Mayor Bowser and Governor Hogan are trying to do,” said Libby Garvey, a Democrat and board chair of Arlington County.

A Northam spokesman said that the lighter approach is appropriate because it doesn’t strangle Virginia’s economy and the state is more rural and spread out than Maryland or Washington. (more…)
The Kind of Behavior that Spawned the French Revolution

Posted on

March 23, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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18

comments

by Kerry Dougherty

Some well-meaning person tagged me and about 100 others on Facebook last weekend urging us to pray to Saint Rocco. The patron saint of pandemics.

I appreciate the sentiment. But I have a better idea. Find me the patron saint of lost life savings. I want to pray to THAT guy.

I want to send up petitions for all of us who worked hard, lived within our means, paid our bills, saved our money, invested in American companies and who – in a few horrible weeks – watched our life savings shrink to alarming levels while several morally reprehensible members of Congress dumped their investments just before the stock market crashed.

Yes, I’m talking about a quartet of alleged profiteers in the U.S. Senate: Richard Burr, Kelly Loeffler, James Inhofe and Dianne Feinstein. Inhofe may have a plausible excuse for his actions. The others? Not so much.

Their wealth was protected. The little people? Meh, who cares. (more…)
COVID-19 Update: Exponential Rate of Increase Getting More Exponential

Posted on

March 22, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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28

comments

Forgive me for the mathematically nonsensical headline, but it drives home the point: Not only is COVID-19 spreading more rapidly, the rate of increase in infected patients is increasing. The Virginia Department of Health dashboard shows that 67 new cases were confirmed, and seven more coronavirus patients were admitted to hospitals. The number of fatalities rose to three.

If you’re inclined to panic, the latest data provides new fodder for your hysteria. Instead of the number of identified infections doubling every three days, as had been the case as recently as two days ago, the number has nearly doubled in just two days. The difference between doubling every three days and every two days is dramatic. If this rate of spread continues, hospitals and health care practitioners could find themselves running short of beds and staff within two to three weeks.

Governor Ralph Northam assured Virginians early in this crisis not to worry, the state had a plan. As the old military adage goes, no plan survives first contact with the enemy. In this case, no epidemic plan survives first contact with the virus. Specifically, what is being done (a) to increase the number of hospital beds, (b) increase the number of front-line health practitioners, (c) provide health practitioners the protective gear they need to avoid getting the virus themselves, and (d) create emergency capacity to hold coronavirus patients should hospitals run out of rooms? (more…)
Which Will Kill More People: COVID-19 or a Sharp Recession?

Posted on

March 22, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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38

comments

by James A. Bacon

Having done everything I can to raise the alarm about COVID-19 in Virginia, I’m having second thoughts. Clearly, forceful government action is needed to cope with the most dire public health challenge of recent years. But it’s possible to do too much. We need to think about the trade-offs.

At least two critical perspectives have gone missing here in Virginia. One is the fiscal impact of a sharp recession on state/local government finances. I will address that in a separate post. The other is the impact of an economic downturn on public health. Shutting down society to limit the spread of the disease and save lives also shuts down economic activity. Shutting down economic activity leads to massive wealth destruction and the loss of jobs. And the loss of wealth and jobs potentially could result in… the loss of lives.

As of yesterday, two COVID-19 patients had died. But thousands of Virginians have lost their jobs already as government-imposed social-distancing measures have prompted the shutdown of restaurants, hotels, tourist destinations, hair cutteries, gymnasiums, yoga studios, and more. Lacking financial reserves, many small businesses will never reopen. The Richmond Times-Dispatch suggests today that between 115,000 to 170,000 of the state’s 290,000 restaurant workers could become unemployed. That’s just the first wave. (more…)
Politicians and COVID-19: First, Do No Harm. Second, Do No Harm

Posted on

March 22, 2020

by

James A. Bacon

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21

comments

by James C. Sherlock

Do Not Regulate Surgical Decisions

There are things the state should not do during an emergency. Regulating elective procedures is one of them. I agree with the statement of the hospitals^[1]. If we had more hospitals and far more physician-owned ambulatory surgical centers, the problem would have an alternative solution. But we don’t because of 47 years of Certificate of Public Need regulation. The decisions of Virginia’s Health Commissioners artificially limiting supply are available in state records for all to see.

A key reason I agree with the hospitals position that decisions on surgery should remain at the local level is that even if some might think such things should be regulated by the state, and I don’t, it is far too late for intervention in a matter that the state is not set up to oversee. Blind regulation is a terrible thing to contemplate.

Deal with the Connected Issues of COPN and State Oversight of the Business of Healthcare

The Governor just waved Certificate of Public Need (COPN) restrictions, but effectively only for certificate holders. The Governor and the General Assembly can heavily reduce the restrictions in COPN or repeal it next year, but there are legislative solutions immediately available that can help. In the upcoming special session, the General Assembly should pass two bills that were laid on the table in the House of Delegates earlier this year: (more…)

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