Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

The “Other” Poll

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James A. Bacon
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Given the Democratic blogger triumphalism manifested after the Mason-Dixon poll, which showed Tim Kaine running neck-and-neck with Jerry Kilgore, I’m surprised that GOP denizens of the Bacon’s Rebellion blog haven’t brought attention to the latest Rasmussen poll, which shows Kilgore maintaining a six percent lead.

Other Virginia bloggers have taken note of the poll, however:

Commonwealth Conservative: Noting that nine out of 10 polls have shown Kilgore ahead, John Behan is more convinced than ever that Mason-Dixon is an outlier.

One Man’s Trash: Norm Leahy doesn’t critique the poll, but he does predict that the MSM won’t give it the same attention that it gave to the Mason-Dixon poll.

Given the margin for error and possibly different methodologies, the differences between the two polls may not be as significant as they seem at first blush. But if I had to go with one based on its past track record, I’d go with Mason-Dixon. In my recollection, Mason-Dixon has consistently outperformed the national polls in picking the margins for presidential races here in Virginia.

(This blog entry has been edited since the original post.)

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  1. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    Jim, you need to get out more. My fellow Asses of Evil, John Behan and Norm Leahy, had posts about it yesterday.

    Even the loyal opposition, Waldo Jaquith, noted Rasmussen.

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Any poll that doesn’t ask voters about Potts by name is absolutely bogus. Their justification for not doing so is laughable. I agree that both polls are within each other’s margin of error, but Mason Dixon has a far superior track record and methodology. It doesn’t matter really — both polls show the potential is there for a real horse race after Labor Day.

  3. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    Wow, Jim, you got out and about quick! Your point stands, though. Republican-leaning bloggers haven’t been as “triumphant” about polls as Democratic-leaners were when Mason-Dixon resusicated them. There might be a message there.

    Nobody should take anything for granted right now.

  4. Waldo Jaquith Avatar
    Waldo Jaquith

    The major difference between the Rasmussen poll and the Mason Dixon poll, as others have noted, is that Mason Dixon asked about Potts. And, as we saw, when Mason Dixon drilled down to those voters, they found some compelling information about who is voting for Potts and why — that is, largely Republicans, indicating that Potts is draining Kilgore’s votes.

    For Rasmussen not to ask about Potts is not only a bit silly — he’ll be appearing on the ballot and, thus, people will have him as an option — but seems like the primary source of error. Sure, there are differences between the Mason Dixon and Rasmussen polls in other regards — MoE (4% vs 4.5%), sample size (650 vs 500), methodology (administered by humans vs automated, or so it’s been said) and confidence level (unknown vs. 95%), but I’m not sure that any of those are likely to make up the difference.

    That Mason Dixon poll was the only one thus far to ask about Potts. It’s also the only poll to put Kaine ahead (though, realistically-speaking, it’s a statistical tie). That could be because Mason Dixon is wrong. But given what we know about Potts’ supporters, and given that the options they presented to voters are the same as those with which they’ll be presented in the voting booth, isn’t it more likely that it’s the most right?

  5. John K. Avatar
    John K.

    Russ Potts may prove to be the Old Dominion’s own Ross Perot. Well…I certainly hope not, but I’m concerned. I hear a giant sucking sound out Winchester way.

  6. Norman Avatar
    Norman

    “Normy”?

    Jim, I think you’ve been watching too many “Cheers” reruns. But thanks for noticing.

  7. russpottsgymnasium Avatar
    russpottsgymnasium

    Pottsie likes Normy!

  8. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Wasn’t Rasmussen the one who found John Kerry leading in Virginia last fall?

    Weren’t political bloggers the ones predicting Bush’s imminent demise last fall?

    Did anyone learn anything from the echo chamber created by the blogosphere last fall?

    For people like me, this race hasn’t even started yet.

    An Undecided Voter

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