by James A. Bacon
Want to know why Virginians are so suspicious of big-ticket transportation projects? Voters feel like public officials are masters of the ol’ bait-and-switch: The governing class sucks the public into supporting an infrastructure project with a low-ball estimate, builds political support and institutional momentum, and then reveals massively higher cost estimates late in the game when it’s too late to back out.
That approach may be backfiring in Arlington County where, according to the Washington Post, county government has just conceded that the Columbia Pike streetcar project likely will cost $358 million, about $100 million more than previous estimated.
The streetcar project, billed as a necessity for increasing transportation capacity in a corridor expected to experience big traffic increases in the years ahead, had already inspired a political backlash before the new, higher number was announced. Last month, Arlington voters had elected a non-Democrat to the County Board for the first time in 15 years. John Vihstadt, a Republican who ran as an independent, made criticism of the streetcar project a centerpiece of his campaign. Opponents argue that a Bus Rapid Transit system would serve the need just as well for a much lower cost.
Dennis Leach, deputy director of transportation and environmental services, revealed the new estimate in a presentation to the Arlington Board yesterday.
In explaining the cost increases, Leach said he started with the U.S. Department of Transportation’s “extremely conservative” estimate from last year, which said the streetcar would cost $310 million — $60 million more than the county’s original projection. He added extra money to cover a larger contingency fund, a higher rate of inflation, higher engineering and start-up costs, and a proposed change in the size of the streetcars.
County Manager Barbara Donnellan characterized the streetcars as a “generational investment,” most likely an analogy to the investment in Metro in the 1970s that transformed the county from a bedroom community into a vital part of the Washington metro region’s urban core. “We have not shied away from major investments in the past,” she said. “Every generation is asked to make decisions that benefit generations to follow. Building high-capacity rail in south Arlington . . . will allow us to grow fiscally and developmentally for years to come.”
But the same grass roots that elected Vihstadt is not likely to respond well to the revelation of higher cost. Populists are still agitated over the county’s infamous million-dollar bus stops. After taking a public relations beating, the county government redesigned the bus stops and announced that it had cut the price of the project almost in half — from $20.9 million to $12.4 million for 23 stops. However, while $500,000 per stop is considerably cheaper than the original design, it still is a far cry from $30,000 for a no-frills bus stop.
The big question at this point is whether the County Board will pause to re-evaluate the streetcar project based on the new estimate. Does the extra $100 million change the projected Return on Investment to the county in the form of higher property values along the streetcar line or avoided costs for roadway construction? Or has the governing majority expended so much political capital on the project that it is willing to surge forward under the airy pretext that a “generational investment” justifies any price?
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