ON THE FOURTH

The Risse Household has celebrated the 4th of July for as long as EMR can recall.

During WWII there were pot luck barbeques in the live-oak-shaded picnic grove next to the orchard. Households with members serving in the military from that part of the Santa Inez Valley – some years one or more were home on leave – and Households stationed at Camp Cook who were living off-post on nearby farms were guests of honor. The first 4th of July after The War ended, there was fireworks at the Lompoc Airport and a lug of cherries – no cherry bombs.

In the Northern Rocky Mountain Urban Support Region the 4th was often celebrated with fellow trail crew members – college students who were working for the Park Service for the summer. Home made ice cream and newly ripe Flathead Lake cherries were on the menu. No fireworks, roman candles start forest fires, even in July.

It was only after THE ESTATES MATRIX was completed that EMR fully realized how profoundly different the world was after 4 July 1776. It was not JUST that date but 4 July 1776 was the most important landmark in the fifty years from 1770 to 1820. This era included the American Revolution, the French Revolution, the Haitian Revolution the Louisiana Purchase and the War of 1812. As documented by THE ESTATES MATRIX, that period witnessed Fundamental Transformations of the Estates that manage human society.

Now it is time to embrace new set of Fundamental Transformations. These Transformations are required to accommodate what has happened since 1800 with respect to the economic, social and physical context of human existence.

These Transformations must evolve in a way that preserves the rights of all citizens and not just the privileges of individuals, Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions who have taken control at the top of the Ziggurat.

Which brings us to 2010 and Bacon’s Rebellion.

Jim, Larry, Groveton and Peter continue to throw rocks at empty pigeon holes.

Citizen need those rocks – and all those that are tossing rocks – to work together to rebuild a foundation that will support a sustainable society now that there are 6.9-Billion humans who are dependent on the remaining Natural Capital.

Enough of having fun with red meat. It is time to get to work.

Things are not looking good.

Groveton may be right that, in light of recent events, the traditional Donkey Clan will not be able to win an election for 20 years, if ever.

Based on that criteria, it will 40 years, if ever, for the traditional Elephant Clan to win an election. The friends of Big Enterprise are not riding a wave of popularity.

A recent CNN poll: (“Who is to blame for the current economic conditions?”) Donkey Clan 24 percent, Elephant Clan 48 percent, Both 24 percent, Undecided 4 percent.

On the current trajectory neither Clan will ‘win.’ The way the cards are being played, there will again be a 49.9 percent to 51.1 percent split between two coalitions beholden to least-common-denominator platitudes and fueled by The Anger of Ignorance.

Groveton says the stock market is a ‘leading indicator’ of the economy.

EMR suggests a better indicator is the US NET National Savings as a percentage of GNP. (See CNNMoney’s 30 June reprint of a Fortune article “Personal savings rate: worse than we thought.”)

The stock market is a gambling venue.

Personal savings rates, and more important the “US NET National Savings as a percentage of GNP,” is an indication of individual and Organizational commitment to preparing for the future.

Recall Jared Diamond’s the two criteria for avoiding Collapse…

See “Collapse, An Appreciation” Column # 64, 8 Aug 2005.

Fundamental Transformations OR count on your fingers the number of times that you will be able to celebrate the 4th of July in public and without guilt.

Happy Fourth!

EMR


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Comments

67 responses to “ON THE FOURTH”

  1. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    I'd like to recommend CNN's GPS hosted by a fellow named Fareed Zakaria.

    This past Sunday (viewable on this link):

    http://www.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/fareed.zakaria.gps/

    " How do you save the world's major economies?

    It is perhaps the most important policy debate of our time.

    On one side, Nobel Laureate and NY Times columnist Paul Krugman who says governments must spend, spend, spend.

    On the other, Harvard historian Niall Ferguson who says nations must bring on austerity measures and STOP spending. "

    well worth watching and each guy lays out a clear explanation of their view.

  2. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    The same show made note of the fact that the CIA recently stated that there are probably, at most, about 100 Al-Qaeda in all of Afghanistan and that last month 100 allied soldiers lost their lives in Afghanistan.

    So… in an effort to drive out those 100 and/or keep them from regenerating – we are nation-building a country slightly smaller than Texas that has not had a functional unitary governance in hundreds of years and a literacy rate of 24% at a dollar cost of about a billion dollars per Al-Qaeda terrorist.

    Oh.. and the best part is that since we all refuse to pay higher taxes to pay for the war – we will give the debt to our kids and Moms and Dads who are currently on the wild goose chase in Afghanistan.

    so.. we can "stimulus" the war but we cannot "stimulus" teachers to help the kids who will inherit this debt have the kind of education that they'll need to compete for world-class jobs so they can pay that debt.

    eh?

  3. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Emr's point about the savings rate is interesting. However, there are two economies with high savings rates and very different meta results. The first is Germany. A major saver Germany stands today on top of one of the world's few serious recoveries. The second is Japan. Another country famous for savings, Japan has been mired in economic malaise for what seems like 20 years.

    Why the difference and what do the two countries tell us about economic policy in the United States?

  4. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    re: savings rate

    If people who "saved" put their money in a safe deposit box or bought a durable commodity and stored it – what would happen?

    Wouldn't this essentially be the opposite of the govt printing more money?

    How would the govt accomplish this as a policy?

    Wouldn't they have to essentially take you taxes and then "retire" the money you sent them rather than spend it?

    What would happen if the govt did that.

    What if the govt just took the money that you sent them for taxes and bought gold or silver or oil with it and just held it?

    Bonus Question:

    If your money is worth more right now that it will be 5 or 10 years from now – should you convert it to something that, at the least, will not depreciate in value?

    How would the government do that?

  5. hydra Avatar

    Things are not looking good,except we pay a smaller proportion of our income than ever for food,clothing,and transportation. Housing is about the same but we have larger houses,with more ammenities.

  6. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    My understanding is that if we go to an austerity budget framework that it will likely result in 20% unemployment and that if that happens even less revenues will accrue and the deficit will remain untouched and perhaps worse if the cost of unemployment and other entitlements goes up as more and more folks lose their incomes and health care.

    So my question to the "fix the deficit now" hawks here is do you believe that we would end up with a 20%+ unemployment rate if we stop the stimulus and cut taxes even more?

  7. hydra Avatar

    You Don,t save money by putting it in a safe deposit box. That is an investment (gambling) venue with a guaranteed negative return.

  8. hydra Avatar

    How would the government do that?

    Build roads.

    Buy Afghanistan or Haiti.

    Build a permanent moon base.

    Solvethe nuclear disposal problem.

  9. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Groveton and Larry:

    To be clear:

    The savings rate is as an indicator of what citizens and their Organizations (Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions) are doing to prepare for the future, not what nation-state policies are or should be.

    The nation-state policy?

    Help citizens evolve new settlement patterns, a rational governance structure and durable economic systems.

    Humans now exist in a ‘flat’ world:

    • Where citizens already possess wide-spread literacy, and

    • The tools are in hand to create universal enlightenment OR debilitating disinformation, and

    • With ubiquitous technology that facilitates instant communication and information OR confounding disinformation, and

    • Worldwide distribution of weapons of mass destruction,

    Massive stockpiles of weapons of conventional destruction

    ALONG WITH ubiquitous access to weapons of inter-personal destruction:

    There is no alternative but to make Fundamental Transformations of

    Humans settlement patterns,

    Governance structure and

    Economic systems

    If citizens are to achieve a sustainable trajectory for their civilization.

    Platitudes like strict interpertation of the Constitution and “States rights”?

    Virginia now has three times as many residents and 10 times as many citizens as the US had in 1790

    Fairfax County is 40% as populous the US was in 1790.

    The world has fundamentally Transformed and the Estates must Transform to reflect reality.

    One quick thought then back to work:

    Raise the interest rates so those who have saved can invest in Neighborhood, Village and Community scale REAL investments, not ‘global’ Ponzi schemes and gambling venues. It is not ‘investers’ who need to invest, it is citizens who need to invest AND save.

    Shrink to survive, then Prosper.

    Happy Fifth!!

    EMR

  10. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    " Raise the interest rates …."

    even I ..have some serious questions about who would determine what the rates would be, and who would pay the interest….

    Are we advocating the the govt get into the banking business here?

    Sort of like a REAL FEDERAL CREDIT UNION?

    You go to the Post Office to deposit your money and they pay you 10% instead of the local banks paltry 2%?

    So.. you and I would go pull out our 401 money and put it in the Uncle Sam Credit Union?

    concepts. concepts. Oh the possibilities?

  11. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    anyone interested in a 20% unemployment rate and how to achieve it?

  12. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Where does immigration reform (and please explain what you mean by immigration reform) fit with your your view of reviving the U.S economy in a manner where the middle class benefits? Where blue collar workers benefit?

    TMT

  13. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    it's related – no question but you did use the word middle class so did you mean to exclude those who occupy the lower tiers?

  14. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    it's related – no question but you did use the word middle class so did you mean to exclude those who occupy the lower tiers?

  15. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Larry:

    I believe that ‘what the Fed does’ is adjust the interest rate by controlling the interbank funds rate or what ever it is called.

    They are keeping it low so Enterprises can “invest.” As Jim’s data in the next post makes clear what Enterprises are doing is hoarding money, not investing it. And especially not investing it in Neighborhood, Village and Community projects were that spending will get bounce and do some good for the folks down the block.

    20 million citizens with 100K each stuck in low interest CDs or in no interest ‘savings’ have 2 Trillion they would love to invest in something they understand and believe in.

    EMR

  16. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    good job on pulling the data together…

    but as usual .. it's ALL in the interpretation of the data!

    Obama reminded the other countries that they should not expect to recover their economies by selling goods to the US.

    But I think one more chart is needed here also and that would be a ranked list of countries by external debt – per capita and as a percent of GDP…like this one:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

    and then.. perhaps FUSE this with the savings rate, eh?

    so then we'd know if there is a real connection between the rate of savings and the rate of borrowing, right?

  17. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    well the Fed does control the interest rate that it charges the banks but isn't that the opposite of what the banks would pay in interest to depositors?

  18. Gooze Views Avatar
    Gooze Views

    Forgive my denseness, but what does it mean to "throw rocks at pigeon holes?"

    PG

  19. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Not ‘tossing rocks at pigeon holes’ but ‘tossing rocks at EMPTY pigeon holes.’

    As I recall that means accusing folks of being liberals or conservatives or … and then ascribing characteristics to that category that are false, misleading or mean spirited.

    In other words, describing the attributes of a specific category (pigeon hole) and then tossing rocks at it when in fact no one meets those criteria or holds that set of beliefs.

    For example “all liberals love taxes and big government.”

    No one ‘loves’ taxes, they may appreciate what tax revenue can buy.

    No one ‘loves’ big government, they may appreciate what effective government can accomplish if well managed and believe that without effective government action citizens will suffer.

    CJC

  20. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "No one ‘loves’ big government" CJC. Either you do "love big government" or you have never lived in the D.C. metro area. There are a helluva lot of people here who love big government because of what they get from it — jobs, profits, etc. This is one nasty town.

    Larry, I used the term "blue collar workers" to refer to those people below the middle class, but on second thought, my term was too narrow. I revise my question to read as follows:

    "Where does immigration reform (and please explain what you mean by immigration reform) fit with your your view of reviving the U.S economy in a manner where the middle and lower economic classes benefits?"

    TMT

  21. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    okay, good nuff. So many jobs on the lower tier are not going to provide sufficient income to live close to where they work in NoVa?

    So those jobs would be done by students, part-time spouses, etc ?

    or do you think students/part-time folks are being displaced by illegals who will find a way to live much cheaper than Americans would?

    I'm just trying to figure out who is being displaced by the illegals or, if, in fact, the illegals are doing work that others would not do as is a common claim.

  22. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry, your assumption may well be false — that low-skill jobs without access to illegal immigration would remain low-wage jobs. Also, after a substantial reduction in illegal immigration through attrition, if there are still low-skill jobs that need filling, we could have a real guest worker program (versus an illegal immigration toleration) that brought in non-U.S. workers and gave them protections of American labor laws.

    TMT

  23. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    TMT – in the context of the current fiscal crisis – even though I acknowledge that illegal immigration is probably involved, I doubt seriously that fixing it will have a material effect on the bigger issue of fiscal sustainability although I'll admit I don't know.

    I just sense that the issues are considered not joined inexorably …. no?

  24. Hydra Avatar

    "Fairfax County is 40% as populous the US was in 1790."

    Logical fallacy of innumeracy.

    RH

  25. Hydra Avatar

    "20 million citizens with 100K each stuck in low interest CDs or in no interest ‘savings’ have 2 Trillion they would love to invest in something they understand and believe in."

    Not even close. There are around $700 billion in CD's, incluing Euro denominated CD's.

    Bank deposits and CD's combined only account for about 25% of the invested liquid assets of American households with over half being invested in stocks snd bonds and andother 20+ percent in mutual funds.

    At this web site you can see what people of various levels of wealth are really invested in.

    http://www.irs.gov/taxstats/article/0,,id=185880,00.html

  26. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry, I respectfully disagree on the likely impact of a substantial reduction in illegal immigration on the nation's fiscal problems. Since many of these people are poorly educated and low-skilled (note I am not challenging how hard many of them work), they or their families tend to consume much more in services than they pay in taxes. A huge portion of public school expenditures go to low-income and non-English speaking children.

    Those who hire illegal workers are effectively shifting the social costs to taxpayers in general, while pocketing the wage savings.

    TMT

  27. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    Maybe TMT – but how about the idea that the US is better off (marginally perhaps) than many other debtor countries that, in theory, do not have the immigration problem.

    To be honest, I'd not heard from many besides the typical tea pot folks that our fiscal problems are due to immigration and we'd be not in a crisis if we did not have the problem.

    not disagreeing.. just that most commentators don't tie the two together.. do they?

  28. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry, admittedly, the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR)has a horse in the race, but it recently released a study indicating illegal immigrants cost the U.S. $113 M per year. There are studies by other groups with other results. http://beforeitsnews.com/news/94/396/Did_you_hear_Illegal_Immigration_Costs_U.S._113_Billion_A_Year,_Study_Finds.html

    I'm not vouching for any study, but I suspect: 1) solving illegal immigration would NOT fix all of our problems; but 2) reducing the problem to a trickle would make measurable improvements, especially at the state and local levels.

    TMT

  29. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    looks like the Feds are suing to overturn the Arizona law, eh?

  30. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    oops… I stand corrected TMT:

    Manning the Gates: Migration Policy in the Great Recession

    http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2010/el1005.html

  31. Hydra Avatar

    "A huge portion of public school expenditures go to low-income and non-English speaking children.

    Those who hire illegal workers are effectively shifting the social costs to taxpayers in general, while pocketing the wage savings."

    A commonly held idea but not entirely correct. In the District General education and overhead costs are around $9000 per studentt and ADDITIONAL COST for ESL students is $3000 PER ESL STUDENT. Therefore it would be incorrect to say that ESL students increase overall costs by 1/3 bot it would be correct (and misleading) to say that ESL students cost 1/3 more to educate.

    Special needs students add $10,000 per student. If money is the issue then you would prefer to have a healthy ESL student over a special needs American student.

    Illegal foreign workers evade (or are not allowed to pay) some taxes but they also pay others for which they will collect nothing in returen.

    Illegal foreign workers displace some Americnas from their jobs, but they also produce a lot of goods and services that would simply not exist if they had to be produced at full american costs. The work would not get done because it would cost too much.

    Overall, studies have concluded that illegals add more to the situation than they take, even considering remittances back home. And we could improve that situation if we would simply let them pay the taxes we claim they are avoiding.

    RH

  32. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Ray, I won't argue that Special Ed costs are not larger than program costs for non-English speakers, but for the school year that just ended, Fairfax County spent more than $60 M on ESL alone (649 employees). And that does not count all of the special programs that are run for these same children, many of whom are either here illegally or are anchor children. The schools serving many of these children have all day kindergarten (not available in many other schools. The County had modified schedule (open all year round) schools, extra teachers, etc. We have some classes of 15 students or so in some of these schools, while other County schools are seeing elementary school classes in the mid and upper 30s.

    I would never argue that illegal workers add nothing to the economy, but they sure as all are not adding to Fairfax County Public Schools tax revenues equal to what they are consuming in extra resources or taking from the average student, irrespective of where they were born. And a growing number of parents, many of whom are not white, are getting angrier and angrier.

    Importing poverty is stupid.

    TMT

  33. hydta Avatar

    How many ESL people are LEGAL? Let's not ascribe all ESL costs to illegals.

    Anyway how is it any different from teaching Spanish or French as a second language to American kids? Still need special teachers,still
    additional cost.

    I'm not arguing one way or another about illegals, I'm arguing for good arguments.

  34. hydra Avatar

    By your argument no residence pays what it costs, legal residents or not.

    Are you arguing for a tax increase?

    A tax increase for illegals?

    Or do you just want them to go away?

    Exporting poverty has got to be as dumb as importing it. Besides,we've been pretty successful importing poverty in the past: that's how the railroads were built.

  35. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    yes… this is where the argument starts to get "tainted" in my view with tones of racism and I'm emphatically not accusing TMT of such but just noting that bringing up the issue in that way – leads to the recognition that ESL is ESL first – irrespective of immigration status and includes other immigrants besides Hispanics.

    To be fair. If you went to another country – would their citizens pay to tutor your kid in their language or would you have to pay out of your own pocket to get him schooled in a new language?

    Why is it Fairfax County taxpayers job to pay for ESL regardless of immigration status ?

  36. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    importing and exporting jobs and poverty….

    isn't it interesting that we rail about outsourcing jobs ..then we rail about those who would take those jobs and keep them here..

    it has a certain ugly feel to it.

    eh?

  37. hydra Avatar

    By your argument no residence pays what it costs, legal residents or not.

    Are you arguing for a tax increase?

    A tax increase for illegals?

    Or do you just want them to go away?

    Exporting poverty has got to be as dumb as importing it. Besides,we've been pretty successful importing poverty in the past: that's how the railroads were built.

  38. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Ray, of course, 100% of ESL costs are not associated with illegal immigration, but School officials have told me (off the record) that the bulk of the costs and those associated with other special programs do come from illegal immigration. The children from Korea, Ghana, Russia are generally coming from literate families. But, like it or not, many of the families not authorized to work are barely literate in Spanish. Their children need many years of special services not a year or two.

    I'm not arguing to round up anyone, but it is absolutely stupid for the United States to import poverty, just so the "I ain't paying minimum wage" and "Gee, these folks will be dependent on government and vote for Democrats" people can be happy. Screw them both!

    We need to enforce the immigration laws. Make employers use E-Verify. Fine the hell out of those who are caught hiring illegal workers. Either that or make compliance with Internal Revenue Code voluntary too.

    In fact, it would be ironic for the judge who hears Obama's suit against Arizona to direct the Justice Department to show cause why the court should not impose a requirement on the feds to enforce the federal laws on the books.

    Enforcement and attrition will work. When the borders are secure and wages are rising for the lower and middle economic classes, then let's talk about other changes in the immigration laws.

    TMT

  39. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    I have a theory about the Fed lawsuit.

    They're assuming they're going to win on the Constitution reserving immigration issues to the Fed and that Arizona will then appeal it to the Supreme Court.

    .. where "activist" Conservative judges will then try to overrule the Constitution – in effect doing the very thing they accuse Liberal "activist" judges of doing.

    So Obama is going to use this to demonstrate that Conservative judges are also "activists".

    With regard to E-Verify.

    Why didn't Arizona do that?

    That actually looks like something the state could pass a law on – to fine employers for hiring undocumented workers and not paying the payroll taxes.

    My view of what Arizona did was not to solve the problem but to fire off a political volley.

  40. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry, Arizona passed a law that has required the use of E-Verify. http://www.morganlewis.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/publication.detail/publicationID/8b9b3671-1993-4e07-b9d3-211200f1e809 However, neither Bush nor Obama has satisfied their constitutional requirements to enforce the federal law on immigration.

    TMT

  41. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    well TMT – if illegals can't get jobs in Arizona then why are they coming and staying?

  42. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Enforcement and attrition. The problem was not created overnight and will not be solved immediately. But patrol the boarder, crack down on employers, and enforce existing laws, and, over time, the problem will get smaller. The nation's problem is that our elected officials from both parties would rather kiss the butts of lobbyists than enforce the law.

    TMT

  43. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    TMT – but the illegals who are there right now.. they would leave if they could not find employment – right?

    there would be a reverse migration if the employer law really was working.

    I have to believe that most of the illegals who are STAYING in Arizona are making money to support themselves as they are not eligible for entitlements, right?

    how do we explain that illegals are still working in Arizona?

  44. Hydra Avatar

    "Minimum wage."

    seems to me there are two things goin on here. One is the case when an actual employer hires the same people for continuing work and he avoids paying his share of payroll and social security taxes, same as the illegals he hires. He may or may not exploit them, in addition by paying minimum wage or below.

    Some industries are notorious for low wages and lousy conditions. One illegal told me that even he would not pick tomatoes in South Carolina for $4.50 an hour. he said it isn't a living if you are breaking your back and don't have enough to live on.

    But I know other companies that pay their illegals good wages, same as they offer to anyone else, only no one else ever shows up. They don't look too hard at the papers provided. One of them told me flat out that without the illegals, he would just shut down.

    Then there is the situation with true day laborers. If someone shows up and offers to paint your porch, is he an employee or a contractor? Are you really expected to e-verify this guy? You pick up a guy carrying a sign "Will work for Food", or some other loiterer, and let him split wood for a day, are you really going to fill out a w-4, do withholding and all that?

    Some of these day laborers make pretty good money, just not for the same persone eveery day, and some specialize in various work, drywall, stonework, painting, groundskeeping.

    I knew of one guy who worked for ten people, one day a week every two weeks. Once he had enough money, he went back to El Salvador and started his own business there. The people he worked for were sad to see him go, and they paid him well above minimum wage.

    Then there is the live-in help. Grooms that live in apartments in the hay lofts. I've seen some that are nice apartments and even knew people that rented them. Living above the horses wouldn't be my cup of tea, but….

    The people who hire these guys, or even families, don't report the apartment, let alone the wages, so what good is E-verify?

    RH

    (My part-time employee is legal and has worked for the family for over 30 years. I have used the local drunks for casual labor in a pinch, but they are pretty scary to have around. Now I have a team of legal immigrants that I can get on short notice and my wife is far more comfortable with them.)

  45. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    " Now I have a team of legal immigrants that I can get on short notice and my wife is far more comfortable with them.)"

    except in Arizona the police would be stopping them every other day on their way to work?

  46. Hydra Avatar

    I think there are different issues involved. It is not as easy as illegals working below minimum wage and taking actual jobs that other workers might do. Some jobs just would not happen without illegals.

    One case is the employer that hires illegals as full time employees on a regular basis. they either accept false papers and don't look too close, or else they do not file and pay their share of withholding.

    Some of these companies or industries are notorious for low pay and bad conditions, and they really do exploit foreigners. Others pay their illegals same as they would pay anyone else: I know one contractor who says flat out that without his illegals, he would shut down, not because he would have to pay more, but because he would get less work done.

    Not even the illegals will work for some of these places. One Salvadorean told me he could not make a living doing back breaking labor (picking tomatoes in SC) for $4.50 an hour.

    Then there are companies that do not have any employees but routinely pick up day labor. Prices are negociated on the spot and again, exploitation is likely.

    Then there is the one time user of day labor. Whether you pick up someone with a sign that says "Will Work for Food" or an obvious loiterer for a one time job, is that guy really an employee that you are supposed to check with E-verify and file all the papers and withholding for?

    Finally there is the live in help, grooms that live in apartments over the stables. some of these are pretty nice, I know people who have rented them. Not my cup of tea to live over the horses, but…..

    Anyway, these "employers" don't declare the apartment let alone the workers wages. Such employees just drop off the radar, and since there is no business involved there is no tax writeoff, and no reason to report.

    I called the local handyman company a few times for small jobs that I just could not get around to. After I saw his estimates, casual labor makes a lot more sense. When the local business wants $600 for a job I could do in two days, if I had the two days, and when you can get a laboror for a week for that kind of money….
    Even considering he comes with his own ladder and paintrbush, his overhead can't be that high.

    Then there is the case where the guy you hire is legal, but he shows up with illegals to do the work.

    (My one part-time employee has worked for the family for thirty years and he has withholding, workmens comp, etc. For casual labor I have some legal salvadoreans I can get on short notice. I used to use the local drunks and anyone else I could scrape up, but they were too scary to have around. My wife is much more comfortable with the Salvadoreans, anyway.)

  47. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    so.. if we have illegals… how come the lower-paying manufacturing jobs are STILL being outsourced overseas?

    What if we allowed companies that were vulnerable to being sent overseas use illegals since the company would not be leaving if they could get regular low-paid labor?

  48. Hydra Avatar

    "how come the lower-paying manufacturing jobs are STILL being outsourced overseas?"

    Well, jeez, why do you think the illegals come HERE?

    Even if they are exploited here, they are still better off than being exploited at home.

    "I make as much here in a day as I make in a week at home, but when I go home the price of meat is the same.

    This is currency trading 101 as seen by a Mexican laborer. We could have a universal global Euro. That might level things off a bit.

    RH

  49. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    sorry for the double post.

    RH

  50. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    yeah but why can't we have illegals make cheap underwear here instead of outsourcing the plants to Mexico?

  51. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    why can't we have WalMart sell cheap illegal-made "crap" than that cheap Chinese-made crap?

  52. hydra Avatar

    yeah but why can't we have illegals make cheap underwear here instead of outsourcing the plants to Mexico?

    =================================

    First we have to deport all the enviros and greenies to Mexico or someplace.

    Then we could get some manufacturing past the permitting process.

    RH

  53. Hydra Avatar

    I guess I'm wrong for the seventh time. Sock market is back up over 10,000 today.

    Again.

    RH

  54. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    I'm not going to be happy til it hits 14,000 and stays there.

  55. hydra Avatar

    Seven to ten mote years.

  56. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Did you see where Obama's press secretary Robert Gibbs was unable to answer a reporter's question to reconcile the administration's lawsuit against Arizona for usurping the federal role on immigration with its failure to sue so-called sanctuary cities that are doing the very same thing as Arizona?

    Usurpation is usurpation. Or it's not. Sounds like a politically driven Department of Justice to me.

    We need one set of rules for both Republicans and Democrats.

    TMT

  57. Hydra Avatar

    "All this propaganda in favor of collective, public or community ownership is, in fact, mostly a ruse by various private individuals who want to confiscate the property of other private individuals under some kind of guise that they represent the public or the general will or some fathom thing like that. No, those groups are no more than a gang of other people who want what doesn’t belong to them and wish to sell the idea through the myth of the superior importance of the greater numbers. But there’s no substance to it — millions of people can all be plain thieves, lead by hoodlums who just want to come by stuff by violent means."

    Tibor Machan, professor of Business Ethics, Chapman University.

  58. Hydra Avatar

    "We need one set of rules for both Republicans and Democrats."

    =================================

    Yeah, the set of rules Republicans make.

    How about "Don't ask for something you are not willing to pay for." and "Don't pretend you own something you never paid for."

    Those two rules, strictly enforced, would solve a lot of problems.

    RH

  59. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Who makes the rules is immaterial. Sometimes, the Democrats make the rules (like now); other times it's the Republicans or, like in Virginia, both parties. If Arizona cannot have its own immigration laws than neither can San Francisco. Either that or we invite tyranny by whichever party is in office.

    Gibbs could not answer what seems to me to be a reasonable question. The media should poke him until he does.

    "How about 'Don't ask for something you are not willing to pay for.' and 'Don't pretend you own something you never paid for.'"

    Not bad. I do, however, think those can be complicated questions.

    TMT

  60. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    The sanctuary cities have said that they WON'T do the Federal Laws on Immigration.

    that's not a conflict.

    that's an agreement that the Feds should do it.

    If someone breaks a Federal Law in "helping" an illegal then they ought to be prosecuted.

    Tell me this.

    What LAW says that WE MUST give an education to a child who belongs to illegals?

  61. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    No one has responded to why there are still illegals working illegally in Arizona.

    If they want to stop the influx of illegals and/or get them to leave and go to other states or back to Mexico… then making it impossible to work there would be the way – right?

    so why are illegals still working at illegal jobs in Arizona?

    Is it possible that Arizona is not really serious about it?

  62. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry, not complying with federal law is substituting local law. It's John C. Calhoun and Nullification all over again. It's Southern Governors standing in front of the schools and staying, we don't care what federal law says, we aren't applying it.

    It's my understanding that the federal immigration law includes provisions prohibiting the harboring, transporting, smuggling, etc. of illegal aliens. Here's a link to what DOJ says "http://www.justice.gov/usao/eousa/foia_reading_room/usam/title9/crm01907.htm

    Sanctuary cities are taking the position that federal law does not apply in their community.

    The U.S. Supreme Court ruled some time ago that public schools must provide an education to any qualified child in the district, including illegal aliens. The law must be followed.

    What would happen to unlawful employment in Arizona if the feds announced an inspection and auditing program? If there is a problem (and there appears to be one) and the feds believe they and not the states should be handling the problem, why isn't the federal government cracking down in Arizona? The cynical side of my thinks that the Obama administration, just like the Bush administration, does not want to solve the problem, but only to sit in the middle of the road.

    Enforcement and attrition will help.

    TMT

  63. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    What laws are being broken by the sanctuary cities?

    I thought that their primary action was to not turn in illegals to the Feds.

    Are you saying that these cities are actively violating Federal law by hiding illegals from the ENS?

    re: Arizona

    the truth is – if Arizona passed serious sanctions on employing illegals.. they would not have to be stopping them and checking their IDs because they could not afford a car or a house or food and would leave.

    Isn't Arizona a HYPOCRITE by blaming the Feds for what it won't do that would really solve the problem?

  64. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    DOJ says: "Harboring — Subsection 1324(a)(1)(A)(iii) makes it an offense for any person who — knowing or in reckless disregard of the fact that an alien has come to, entered, or remains in the United States in violation of law, conceals harbors, or shields from detection, or attempts to conceal, harbor, or shield from detection, such alien in any place, including any building or any means of transportation."

    Sanctuary cities, perhaps. Why no prosecutions of the mayors, city council members, police chiefs, etc.? What does this law contemplate when a city determines that X is an illegal alien?

    TMT

  65. Larry G Avatar
    Larry G

    that implies active participation… and I think it's plausible to say that they are not doing that – just not reporting.

    Are we saying that "not reporting" is harboring?

    Besides, If Arizona was truly going to do what it says it wants to do – it would make it impossible for illegals to stay there and they'd all go to those sanctuary places and everyone would be happy.

    Arizona is not dealing with the issue but instead evading it.

  66. Larry G Avatar

    Illegal Workers Swept From Jobs in ‘Silent Raids’

    The Obama administration has replaced immigration raids at factories and farms with a quieter enforcement strategy: sending federal agents to scour companies’ records for illegal immigrant workers.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/10/us/10enforce.html?src=me&ref=homepage

  67. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    "The Obama administration has replaced immigration raids at factories and farms with a quieter enforcement strategy: sending federal agents to scour companies’ records for illegal immigrant workers."

    Sounds like enforcement and attrition. If it dries up the jobs, the workers will eventually leave. Looks reasonable to me.

    TMT

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