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7 responses to “On Budget and On Time”

1. 

   Larry Gross

   November 18, 2006

   This is very misleading…and I fear.. representative

   Let me give an example. A local project for 2 miles of adding one lane on either side of an existing 4 lane was estimated to cost less than 10 million 5 years ago. Today, that same project is now listed as costing 18.7 million 4 but yet it is listed on the Dashboard as “GREEN” in terms of on-time and on-budget.

   RTE 3 – ADD THROUGH & RIGHT TURN LANES EBL & WBL (FREDERICKSBURG, SPOTSYLVANIA) Project code= 13564

   http://dashboard.virginiadot.org/Plan/Studies.aspx?gridStudiesDir=Asc&s_DSTRCT_CD=&s_DATE_RANGE=0&s_ROAD_SYS_TYP_CD=&s_CNTY_CD=88&radLocality=C&s_PRJ_NBR=13564

   Now on the 6yr plan it looks like this:

   UPC NO.: 13564 RTE 3 – ADD THROUGH & RIGHT TURN LANES EBL & WBL
   PROJECT LENGTH: 4.0000 KM
   SCOPE OF WORK: RECONSTRUCTION Est. TOTAL COST= $18,701
   After
   Prevfunds FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 2012
   1,622 0 0 236 1,019 1,888 1,735 12,201

   Notice that even by 2012 they will need 12 million dollars more.

   Now – can anyone imagine what will happen to this projected cost over the next 6 years?

   Now they warn folks not to “confuse” the 6yrplan with the DASHBOARD – fair enough.

   BUT, WHY is this project reported as GREEN on DASHBOARD … AND being ON TIME and ON BUDGET when it does not have a target construction date and a cost that likely will be far more that the current estimate?

   There are over 1000 projects in this category.

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2. 

   Larry Gross

   November 18, 2006

   The other thing to note on my previous post is that:

   1. – By spreading the money wafer thin over dozens (hundreds?) of projects – they assure that few if any of them will ever receive enough money in 6 years to actually be constructed.

   2. – Further, because of the lengthy “windows” (awaiting more funds), what little funds that are allocated are ravaged by inflation.

   Now – there are LOTS of different ways to look at this.. so I won’t continue to beat the over the head though they richly deserve it and I’m totally amazed that others in VA don’t see what I’m seeing…

   But more to the point for transportation planning in Va in general. As far as I know, VDOT is not the only miscreant in their dysfunctional planning. Many MPOs do very similiar.

   If you check out the various project lists for say.. for example, the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority – they don’t adjust the costs of those projects – annually for inflation and for increased right of way costs. In fact, most of the estimates DO NOT include ROW costs.

   So – when these guys talk about needing more money.. and they put a number on it – it’s just that – a number – plucked out of thin air…

   In Spotsylvania – voters passed Bond Referenda. The BOS actually prioritized the projects and presented that list to the voters as projects that would be improved if the bonds passed.

   But they made a HUGE mistake. They actually believed the numbers that VDOT was using in their estimates for these projects.

   After the dust cleared – guess what – the approved bond money .. will buy maybe 1/2 of what they thought.

   Does this bother anyone else or is it just me?

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3. 

   Larry Gross

   November 19, 2006

   In the RTD this morning:

   Road financing focus of summit
   Chesterfield seeks ways to keep up with the county’s needs
   (exerpts):

   How do you pay for needed roads in Chesterfield County when it costs $7 million to fix a one-mile section of a two-lane road?

   Chesterfield expects to receive about $5.8 million from VDOT for secondary-road projects this year.

   A six-year budget created by VDOT in fiscal 2006 projected that Chesterfield would get $41.7 million from the state. When that six-year budget was revised for this fiscal year, the projected state allocation was significantly lower: $26.6 million.

   Based on the current VDOT projections, Chesterfield would receive about $3.4 million from the state in fiscal 2012.

   For the current fiscal year, the gas tax generated $746.4 million for road projects around the state.

   http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD%2FMGArticle%2FRTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1149191774072&path=%21news&s=1045855934842

   Here’s some numbers to chew on.

   Total Annual VDOT Budget = 3.8 Billion
   Amount derived from Va fuels tax = 746.4 (from article)
   Amount derived from Fed fues tax = 900.0 (estimate)
   Amount derived from auto taxes = 900.0 (estimate)
   Amount derived from 1/2% sales tax = 1 Billion (estimate)

   Not likely: raising the Fed or State Fuels tax
   that leaves raising auto taxes and/or insurance premium taxes, bad driver fines, etc and/or increasing the state-wide sales tax.

   comment: How may folks realize that 1/3 of the VDOT budget comes from sale taxes paid for by even folks who don’t drive much or people who take mass transit to work every day?

   Question: What would happen if the state would allocate 1/2 of the sales tax towards METRO transit?

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4. 

   Toomanytaxes

   November 20, 2006

   What would the situation be like had Virginia imposed cost-based impact fees on all development for the last ten years? (Many other states do this.) How much more cash would VDOT have had? How many new road improvements would have been constructed? How many developments might not have been built or been built differently had the fees been mandatory?

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5. 

   Larry Gross

   November 20, 2006

   Having the state collect money from all taxpayers and then

   1. – conduct an allocation process that is not known and/or understood by most people including local BOS
   2. – maintain an allocation process that is inequitable in terms of geography and modality
   3. – allocate on a 6yr plan schedule where there are far more projects in that plan than there is money for
   4. – fail to account for annual inflation and right-of-way increases

   leads to a broken system

   If they did a simple thing like account for annual inflation and increased right-of-way costs – each project would clearly show that money allocated was NOT ENOUGH to keep up with inflation and r/w costs.

   The Feds tried to have MPOs Maintain Financially CONSTRAINED lists – which means you cannot have any more projects than you have identified funding for – BOTH for the TIP (6yr window) and CLRP (25 year window) and some of them do that… “sort of” but even less of them account for annual inflation – because if they did – every year – they’d have to remove some projects from the CLRP. Doing so – would have the affect of prioritizing without ranking (whereas if you do it from the “top”.. ranking becomes part of the prioritization process).

   This stuff .. pointed out.. in JLARC and Va APC and I’m amazed… shocked.. disheartened that neither the HD nor the Senate in their reform legislation address these fundamental flaws even when they’re lying like a 3-day old carp at their feet.

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6. 

   Ray Hyde

   November 21, 2006

   1/3 of the VDOT budget comes from sale taxes paid for by even folks who don’t drive much or people who take mass transit to work every day?

   And where does the money come from that supports Metro? Doesn’t it come from sales taxes, too?

   Don’t you suppose that a lot more people pay sales taxes that don’t ride metro than there are people who pay sales taxes and “don’t drive much”? Even if they don’t drive, don’t they have products delivered that come by road?

   How do the people who take mass transit to work every day get around the rest of the time?

   I am perfectly willing to pay 100% of my fair share of costs for the amount I use the roads, if metro riders pay 100% of their share of riding Metro.

   However, I suspect if that actually happened, Metro ridership would drop substantially. Face it, there are some cities that offer free, or nearly free transit, and even then they are driving around a lot of empty seats.

   I really don’t understand your point. Sure roads are tremendously expensive, and they aren’t getting any cheaper. Metro is expensive, too, and it’s costs are going up even faster than roads are.

   Who doesn’t have a wish list that is larger than their budget? Are we really any different from VDOT? Isn’t VDOT a reflection of ourselves?

   Yep, GAs tax generated $746 million dollars, but tell me, if it had been levied per dolar in 1986 instead of per gallon, how much would it be bringing in today? On the one hand, you say it doesn’t bring in enough, and on the other you say it shoudn’t be raised, or that you are not willing to support the idea because you know it won’t happen.

   OK, So what? We pay for the roads some other way, but you don’t think that way is fair either. Instead, you want a whole new technology and an new bureacracy to collect tolls. (Notice, there was a multiple car pile up on the toll road today, at one of the toll booths.)

   It’s the same with housing. We “know” housing doesn’t pay its own costs, but I don’t hear anyone suggesting that we fix that problem. Instead, we’ll pass all the costs off on the “new” guys.

   I don’t have any idea that your arguments are not at least partly correct, but they still sound cheap and self-serving.

   You want to have a pay as you go philosophy? Fine, but let it apply to everybody, not just those you agree with. Set fair and reasonable prices for government services and then let people buy as much of them as they are willing to pay for, we could call it a free market.

   Norway has tax rates that average 50%, but the citizens love it because Norway provides excellent services. It’s not my cup of tea, but it shows what one alternative to a true pay as you go market would look like.

   Except, they have no homeless people, and under a pay as you go philosophy we would have plenty of them.

   Look, we only collect so much money every year. Put the government budget on the back of your tax form, and have each person allocate their own dollars to the part of the budget they want them to go. You can allocate yours 100% to Metro, if you like. Someone else will allocate theirs to the State police, and someone else to VDOT.

   When it was all done, and averaged over 7 million people, the budget would wind up looking pretty much like it does now.

   This doesn’t have to be as hard as we make it, except we are absolutely paranoid that someone else might get a break.

   There is only so much money to go around. Collect the money and try to spend it those projects that give the best ROI, so that it will generate more wealth and more capital and more income which we can tax and spend for the next round of projects.

   Or, don’t tax and spend anything, make everything pay as you go. But what wil happen is that major projects won’t get done, because no individual can afford the risk. In the short term we will be better off from lower taxes, but we won’t get the income multiplying power that they provide over time, either.

   I just don’t get it, guys. There is no free lunch. Whatever gets done we are going to pay for, one way or another.

   I don’t see any point in arguing over who is paying for what, or who should pay for what, when we can’t even make an accurate list of what it si we want.

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7. 

   Larry Gross

   November 21, 2006

   we seem to have a problem going from micro to macro.

   The thread title was about on time/on budget .. right?

   or .. is this another issue where everything is “so connected” that we can’t discuss discrete things?

   The point I was making is that it’s disingenuous for VDOT to claim that a project that is not funded, it’s costs not adjusted for annual inflation, and even though it’s been on the list for a decade there is no projected construction date and yet it gets a GREEN “on time and on budget” rating from VDOT.

   … and I’m noting that there are over 1000 projects in that category and I’m wondering how many others might be similiar in their actual status verses what VDOT terms “on time and on budget”.

   Why is this important? Because it’s not about how much money or who pays or any of the other tangential issues that you brought up. It’s simple about operating on a business basis in terms of planning and execution and if any entity cannot do that – what is the justification for giving them more money?

   I don’t think that ANY of this has ANYTHING to do with Norway or Homeless people unless you continue to assert that “everything is connected” and “nothing can be fixed unless everything is fixed”.

   I suspect you really don’t subscribe to that approach in your own personal life so why advocate it as public policy?

   Is that how you sail your boat?

   Can you image ANYTHING at all happening in the VA GA or Congress is that was the criteria for legislation.

   I TRY to read your posts.. but they get so out of hand.. it’s almost impossible to make sense of them.. unless .. like I said.. your view is that nothing changes unless everything changes… Blather Bandwidth.. Ray…

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