It may be the biggest story of Election 2007 in Virginia — certainly as significant as the Democratic Party seizing control of the state Senate by one seat — and it’s three weeks old now, but the Mainstream Media hasn’t gotten around to reporting it yet. On Nov. 6, Virginia voters across Virginia repudiated Business As Usual politics at the local level.
Oh, sure, individual newspapers took note on a case-by-case basis of how the voters threw the bums out, and in a handful of counties, such as Loudoun where the connection was so glaring that even Helen Keller could have seen it, reporters even noted the discontent with the pro-growth incumbents. But no one, to my knowledge, saw the big picture. No one explored the implicatioins of voters installing anti-growth supervisors in power in a dozen localities.
As Peter Galuszka reports in “Growth Backlash,” smart growth advocates are jubilant. But Peter peers beyond the election results to discern what challenges the new supervisors face.
Ironically, the smart growth movement has come to power just as growth is running out of steam. The sub-prime mortgage fiasco and the collapse of housing prices is leading to project cancellations around the state. Suddenly, there is a huge backlog of houses — in Loudoun County, supposedly enough to last eight years. The downturn could be aggravated by any one of a host of factors, from rising gasoline prices to the devaluing dollar. Northern Virginia faces unique challenges of its own: the defense/homeland security gravy train may run off the tracks. After years of double-digit growth, spending could well plateau or, if the Democrats win the presidency next year, decline.
Indeed, the economic situation looks so dire that the home builder associations may start pleading poverty and lobby for clawbacks, such as a rollback of proffers.
Peter explores one other issue. It’s not clear to what extent many of the new supervisors should be described as “smart growth” or just “anti growth.” How many of them truly embrace smart-growth principles such as compact development, higher densities, bicycle lanes, pedestrian-friendly streetscapes, and mass transit? Board chairman Corey Stewart in Prince William County seems devoted to preserving the autocentric society, slapping moratoriums on new housing starts while catching up on road building. Transit Oriented Development is not part of the plan.
However the local politics shake out, the growth debate will look very different in the next two years.