Rather than add this note to the ANATOMY OF A BAD COMMUTE post, EMR will put it here because it is important to understand these issueS. Why is it important?
Because NovaMiddleMan’s idea of economic reality is exactly why those who made bad location decisions are hurting now and will be hurting far more in five years. All those still alive will still be hurting in fifty years if there is not Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns and Fundamental Transformation of governance structure.
NovaMiddleMan said:
“Look dude the free market is at work.”
Was this the ‘free market’ that was declared “dead” in Davos last week?
The US of A is a democracy and a clear majority are inclined to think Behavioral Economics is now in control and that a “free market” – which according Adam Smith presumes informed buyers and sellers – has only rarely existed since 1870 outside the minds of those who perpetuated the myth to gain economic and political leverage.
Some think the “popular” backlash against the current stimulus packages is due to belief in “free markets.” Not so, the popular backlash is driven by revolution over what happened to the money that was doled out and wasted in the last stimulus package.
“People make decisions and face consequences.”
But “people” had no idea what the consequences would be.
Tell us how you feel when you are 75 and still have to work ten hours a day and have no health benefits because of the $75-Trillion in unfunded liabilities for those ahead of you in line.
Or do you plan to be one of the few lucky ones at the top of the ziggurat? Watch out for the pitchforks, machetes and pikepoles.
“Here is my perspective. Pardon me for not having as much context. I’m a bit younger than you folks :-p.”
What is that about those who do not understand history having to repeat it?
In this case there are not enough resources left support a second round of mass overconsumption with 6 billion humans all wanting and deserving a slice of the pie.
“Its 2003 and I am one of the young people powering the new economy of Northern Virginia.”
Lets say “overpowering” the resources upon which a market economy depends. It is not your fault NMM, it is all of our faults but some of us have been pointing out the cliff since 1973, many for longer. Nouriel Roubini has come lately to the Common.
“Some people want to get married and have kids. In 2003-2006 there were only a couple choices.”
Choices about getting married or choices about getting married and having children and living the American Dream as portrayed by MainStream Media advertising? (See “A Yard Where Johnny Can Run and Play,” 1 Dec 2003.)
Even for the later there were many choices unless they relied on Autonomobile and shelter advertising and stories in MainStream Media for guidance. Millions of couples made more intelligent choices than those in Bristow and Dale City.
Check out the story about Grace Church in Saturday’s WaPo Real Estate Section. Just for starters, if small groups of your friends got together they could have created real dooryards from the hundreds of similar buildings inside R=10.
Too busy playing video games to understand the real world? Not smart.
“Finding a place under 500k…”
See above.
“… in a good school district …”
As noted in the 3 February WaPo story if one bought when they got married, by the time their children were ready for school the schools were over crowded.
“… with low crime.”
Define “low crime.” Check out the “safest” places by Prof Lucy’s calculations.
“The only choices were the two places mentioned in the article and outer Loudoun.”
Not in “outer” Loudoun (R=30 to R=45) and not “inner” Loudoun (R=20 to R=30 – the same Radius Band and Prince William) either. Both inner and outer Loudoun have different conditions.
For example, dwellings in the same price range as those in Bristow and Dale City were Attached Dwellings in the eastern Loudoun Beta Communities because they were closer to Jobs and Services due to the existence or Reston and Dulles Airport. These places also did not make the Top 12 in commuting times among Census Designated Places.
The bigger issue is this:
In the profiled enclaves between the time they were married and the first child going to school they spent on average 3,375 hours pre Household commuting. If your cohort spent half that time creating functional Dooryards (see Grace Church for example) they could have also evolved safe Clusters and good Neighborhood schools.
OK, no agents make a profit from sweat equity and building safe Clusters and good Neighborhood schools from the inside and so there is no advertising and no MainStream Media stories… But you get the idea.
“This was insane.”
NOW YOU ARE TALKING
“There needed to be a housing correction.”
The question is: what kind of a “correction?”
“Now you can find a place for under 500k in many places.”
Not a place that meets your criteria because the schools are going down and the crime is going up faster than the price is changing.
“Problem solved all through market forces with no planning or nanny stateisims.”
The problem is not solved, it is only now coming into focus for most citizens.
“And I still say show me the demand for eoconoboxes right on top of each other with no cars.”
EMR dos not advocate “econoboxes” nor does he advocate depriving Households of vehicles. See performance measures in original post.
“Right…. Its not what the public wants”
If the full costs were fairly allocated, the public would in fact want (and need) different settlement patterns and the dwellings need not be “econoboxes” nor “on top of each other.”
“P.S. the people who live in the inner areas don’t want what your development plan is anyway. Unless you can provide adequate infrastructure first and show the quality of life for existing residents wont be negatively impacted.”
Here NMM is correct.
These NIMBY-like criteria can be (and should be) met.
The first step is for those in your generation to understand the reality of the existing conditions and the real future options.
EMR