North of the James: Fastest Growing Housing Prices on the East Coast

Growth in Home Values 2000 to 2019. Source: StatChatva.org

by James A. Bacon

Ever since the late 1930s Virginia’s population has grown faster than that of the nation — until the past few years, that is. Recently, Virginia has experienced a slight net out-migration of domestic residents, and population growth has slowed to match that of the U.S. as a whole.

Writing in the StatChat blog, Hamilton Lombard at the University of Virginia’s Demographics Research Group suggests that a contributing factor is the relative rising cost of housing. He writes:

As recently as the 1990s, Virginia was, like its southern neighbors, a significantly more affordable place to live than most northeastern states. The median home price in Virginia in 1990 was half that of Connecticut but close to a third more than in North Carolina. However, over the past couple of decades, home prices in most places in Virginia rose faster than the rest of country.

As a result, by 2019, Virginia’s median home price was slightly higher than the median home price in Connecticut and 50 percent higher than in North Carolina. Home prices in every Virginia county north of the James River, except Amherst, have risen faster than the rest of country.

Today, says Lombard, Arlington and Fairfax have the most expensive housing among all East Coast counties — exceeded only by Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

Bacon’s bottom line: Governor Youngkin, do you want to address the cost of living in Virginia? You need to start with the cost of housing!


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Comments

11 responses to “North of the James: Fastest Growing Housing Prices on the East Coast”

  1. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Yep, good work on his part and it makes eminent sense. The illustration is powerful. Also note how fear of sea level rise and worsening hurricanes is destroying ocean front property values in the southeast. No. Wait….

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Get insurance for one of those houses.

  2. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    What went up has some probability of coming down…
    https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-nearly-200-housing-markets-that-could-see-20-percent-price-drop-1737430

    Similar interactive maps available in Forbes and Fortune mags.

    1. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      It did back in 2008. I could’ve sold my crappy Manassas townhouse for $500k a couple years prior. At that point I’d have been lucky to get $175K for it.

      It then took another 10 years for the value to finally rise to $275k.

      Of course, that’s just Manassas. The place really is a stinkhole. Always has been, always will be.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        That’s how we keep our mobile workforce stationary. Geez, if you weren’t underwater in your house you could quit your crappy job and get better pay elsewhere. Inflation would be through the roof constantly.

        “A man gets tied up to the ground/ he gives the world its saddest sound”

        1. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          You move to a place like Manassas for a job, and then spend the rest of your life trying to find a way out.

  3. DJRippert Avatar

    Not sure if these figures are in real or nominal dollars. I suspect nominal. Inflation from 2000 to 2019 was a cumulative 48.47%. So, much of the appreciation is just keeping up with inflation.

    While the comparatives are troubling, Connecticut is something of a basket case. It has been losing employers, jobs and population for some time. One study shows that state losing 1.4% of its population between 2020 and 2040 (the same study shows Virginia growing by 14.1%) The North Carolina comparison is more troubling. From 1/3 higher to 1/2 higher is the wrong direction, especially given the urban successes of Charlotte and Raleigh.

    https://www.thecentersquare.com/connecticut/how-connecticut-s-population-will-change-in-the-next-20-years/article_ef473146-96ff-54b3-93ce-4dd87afe21df.html

    1. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      Do they subscribe to the BANANA theory in Charlotte and Raleigh? Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything.

  4. New housing going up in Blacksburg, starting in $750,000s……guess VT pays pretty well for gender studies profs…. and equity enforcers.

  5. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    I am anxious to see how our Governor manages to pull this off. First, he either has to either neutralize or reverse the effects of inflation. As Don points out, inflation accounts for almost half the increase in the cost of housing. Next, he will have to overcome two major “laws”, one near and dear to conservatives’ hearts. The first is the law of supply and demand. If more existing houses were on the market and buyers were not so willing to pay the high prices their owners were asking, the prices would inevitably come down. Next, there is the first “law” of real estate: location, location, location. The high cost of houses north of I-95 obviously reflects their location. Lots of people, for various reasons want to live there.

    By the way, a couple that my wife and I knew in high school have moved back to Virginia from Florida, saying the cost of living, including housing, was too expensive there. Of course, they are building a house in Halifax County, where housing costs are considerably lower than in Richmond. Location, location, location.

    1. john harvie Avatar
      john harvie

      Florida housing/living cos is just like anywhere else. Here in the greater Miami to Palm Beach area it’s crazy.

      Panhandle, central FL peninsula not so much.

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