Bacon's Rebellion

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New Ways to Visualize COVID-19 Data

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James A. Bacon
in

John Butcher has created two new graphs that allow us to visualize the capacity of Virginia hospitals to handle the COVID-19 epidemic. The graph above compares the number of COVID-19 hospitalized patients to the total number of occupied beds and the total number of hospital beds in Virginia. Clearly, there s abundant excess capacity in the system — more than enough to accommodate a jump COVID-19 patients if the virus spreads more rapidly as Governor Northam relaxes emergency shutdown measures..

The chart below provides a breakdown of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, comparing the total number to the number in ICUs and on ventilators.

Once again, there’s plenty of capacity to spare.

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29 responses to “New Ways to Visualize COVID-19 Data”

  1. S. E. Warwick Avatar
    S. E. Warwick

    Would someone please explain the 3,695 beds added under “Executive order 52” on the VHHA daily report.

  2. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Always package your data in the manner most supportive of the position you are seeking to sell. 🙂 And the Butcher chart is out of date. If current, it would show us back up to or near a new peak of hospitalization (1,594 on today’s update.) We’re stuck here for a while. This isn’t going down but with luck will hold stable.

  3. John Butcher Avatar
    John Butcher

    Steve,
    Those are VDH data as of yesterday (Their post for today is not up as of now, 11:55).

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      VHHA website ten seconds ago shows 1594 patients in hospital for COVID, May 6 report. The VDH number is way higher (2,773). If we can’t even settle on what we’re measuring…

  4. DeptOfTyranny Avatar
    DeptOfTyranny

    Noticed in a local tv snewz report about a nearby locality wanting to reopen, report concluded with a “the science is clear” mantra. I guess it depends on what science fits your vision.

  5. S. E. Warwick Avatar
    S. E. Warwick

    Yesterday’s data is that which was reported by 5 p.m. the day before.

  6. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    What some of the skepticism seems to be rooted in , is disbelief of the science.

    And no, the science is not and never was 100% dead on accurate but now days that is the standard for some to believe it or to put it in context – “do not believe science because it’s not the truth”.

    So the funny thing is that a lot of this “data” is premised on models that, in turn, are premised on some estimate of how effective social distancing is in mitigation of infection levels.

    So, NOW, that restrictions are being loosened, the models are updated to reflect what is almost surely going to be a higher rate of infection.

    So.. what to do?

    Well.. just dismiss the models and look at only the “hard” data as the “truth”. Nevermind, it’s probably 2-3 weeks behind the actual infection level – it’s better than model predictions and it takes science itself out of the equation… just look at the actual data!

    1. Steve Haner Avatar
      Steve Haner

      At this point everybody on both sides is cherry picking or fudging data to seek to prove their case. The “Trump Is Going To Kill Us All” meme or “The Commies Want To Run Our Lives” meme. Middle ground hard to find. As to “science” what we’re seeing is the process underway with all its warts and the result is still far away…..

      1. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead V

        Mr. Haner really nails it. Hard to say which way this is going to roll. The middle ground is a minefield. But what else can be done? Lately it occurs to me what a long strange trip this has been…

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Jim – got a view as to which way the k-12 education workforce is going to “roll” on this?

          Most of the folks I know in education don’t sound at all like the folks pontificating on the right. Most of the ones I know actually do believe in science.

  7. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    The UPenn CHIME model, with a much broader/steady climb is starting look closer to the USA. The IHME model with quick peak and rapid fall-off was more based on total lock down approach (China). The implication as stated by Gov Northam is seniors “safer at home” for a long time. The other implication is summer activities such as July 4 parades etc will probably look different.

    On the positive side, MD is seeing 4 days of decline.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      The idea of separating seniors and those with health conditions is loony IMHO.

      Look at the current workforce right now. How many people who are actually continuing to work right now fall into these risk categories?

      Are you going to fire them and send them home for fear that they’d get infected by mixing with younger and healthier folks?

      Does anyone think that Medical workers or first responders, teachers, grocery workers, etc. don’t have folks in their ranks that have gotten older and have health conditions?

      I know this comes as a shock but there are people who work right now in the economy – at jobs that are still being performed – that are not young and healthy… it’s a mix – and reflective of society demographics.

  8. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Science is NEVER without warts… it’s the nature of the beast but Science is,in fact, a real thing, a real discipline that does requires years of schooling to be able to practice it.

    But I’m glad that Steve actually sees the problem….

    Here’s the bottom line. Do we believe that infections are going to go up if we relax the restrictions – as Science says it will?

    nothing else.. do you believe that or not?

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      Larry – I choose as my “science” the “science” of the Chinese epidemiologists who, at the outset of the outbreak in Wuhan, said that human to human transfer does not occur with the novel coronavirus. Now take off that mask and get back to work. Just don’t eat any bats. What? That “science” was wrong? Or, those “scientists” had an agenda and were lying? Wow. You don’t say.

      Of course infections will go up if we relax restrictions. Please find me one reputable source who has ever claimed otherwise. I may have to get a second opinion from CrazyJD but that seems like a classic strawman argument to me.

      Larry – if we lower the statewide speed limit on all roads to 15 mph will there be fewer traffic fatalities? Nothing else. Do you believe that or not? If so, you must be a selfish, self-absorbed person for not demanding a lowering of the maximum state speed limit to 15 mph. Or maybe even lower. Or ban driving altogether.

      Larry – if we impose the COVID19 restrictions during a “normal” flu season will there be fewer infections and flu-related deaths? Nothing else. Do you believe that or not. Well, you’ve been commenting on this blog for over a decade and I never heard you insist on flu season restrictions. How selfish!

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        DJ – “science” is not one guys opinion – even a scientist. That’s why we have peer review and consensus and something called the Scientific Method.

        15 mph is willing ignorance and idiocy in my view. The choice is not 15 mph and something else. 45 mph works fine in some situations just as 75 does in others. It’s never about all or nothing except in the minds of numnuts.

        You off into the wild blue DJ.

        we have “restrictions” all the time – but it does depend on the circumstances where we match the restrictions to the risk.

        And if you think not, then pay attention to things like flu shots and hospital and nursing home rules for infections.

        It’s the all or nothing perspective that really is stunted thinking.

        got it?

  9. Nancy_Naive Avatar
    Nancy_Naive

    Here’s another visualization tool https://www.insider.com/the-mass-graves-part-of-pandemic-new-york-was-prepared-2020-4

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      the mind-boggling thing about that place is that I think they already have a million people buried there… lord!

    2. MAdams Avatar
      MAdams

      That’s in fact New York’s Potter’s Field Hart Island, where all unclaimed are buried.

      1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
        Nancy_Naive

        And what are those guys burying?

        1. MAdams Avatar
          MAdams

          The unclaimed, indigent or those unable to afford burial of their dead in NYC as has been the case for a very long time. The notion that they are all COVID-19 is not a reality.

          The DOC ferries workers once a week to bury the dead.

      2. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        https://opacity.us/images/db/serve/155/274/xlarge/0000009838/pine_caskets_hart_island.jpg

  10. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    yup: ” The remains of more than one million people are buried on Hart Island, though since the first decade of the 21st century, there are fewer than 1,500 burials a year. Burials on Hart Island include individuals who were not claimed by their families or did not have private funerals; the homeless and the indigent; and mass burials of disease victims.”

    “Hart Island, sometimes referred to as Hart’s Island,[a] is located at the western end of Long Island Sound, in the northeastern Bronx in New York City. Measuring approximately 1 mile (1.6 km) long by 0.33 miles (0.53 km) wide”

    hard to believe than more than a million are buried in a one mile long island.

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead V

      Hart’s Island might be the largest paupers row in America.

  11. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The daily report on the DOC COVID-19 microcosm reveals that yesterday’s hopeful report was maybe too early. The latest report shows an increase of 13 from the previous report, led by a surge of 16 new positive cases in Sussex II, a maximum security in Sussex Co., below Petersburg. Maybe that’s jus a blip on the downward slope, however. Here is the summary:

    Summary of COVID-19 Cases in Va. Dept. of Corrections
    As of 5:00 p.m., May 5

    Cumulative testing positive 571
    Total Deaths 3
    Active positive cases in facilities 464
    Number in hospital 11
    Recovered 93
    Staff currently tested positive 67

  12. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    had a Doctor appointment today and as I left, two correction officers with a guy in a wheelchair appeared in the hallway. I made room for them to get by but then had different thoughts on the elevator down.

    So…. prisoners have health issues also… and have to also visit the doctor just like I did… I don’t know how it all works… I doubt the doctor is left alone in the room with the prisoner… not sure if I was a doctor, I’d be comfortable doing that… still ruminating…

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      As you related, there were two corrections officers with the offender. DOC policy requires that any inmate taken offsite to a medical appointment be accompanied at all times by two correctional officers. Before leaving the facility for a medical appointment and upon returning, the inmate is strip searched.

      They are taken offsite to visit specialists. “Regular” medical problems are attended to onsite by DOC-employed doctors or private doctors under contract to DOC. I am a little surprised that they are allowing offsite medical runs, except for emergencies to hospitals. That would be one way of introducing COVID-19 into a prison. Assuming your appointment was in the Fredericksburg area, the offender was probably from either Caroline Correctional Unit, a minimum security facility, or Coffeewood, in Culpeper County, a low-medium security, dormitory facility. Neither of those facilities have reported positive cases.

      Now that I have thought about it some more, they could have been from the regional jail. That is a more likely scenario.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I think there is a correctional unit in Stafford… near where I had my doc appointment. Several specialties including urology where I saw them.

        Maybe Rappahannock Regional or Stafford Diversion?

        1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
          Dick Hall-Sizemore

          Most likely either of those.

  13. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    also interesting… the wheelchair looked like this and the inmate did not look disabled:

    https://americanqualityhealthproducts.com/22215-big_default/gendron-regency-xl2000-bariatric-wheelchair-700-lbs-series-67.jpg

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