New VPAP Modelling Shows Why Virginia Republicans Are Losing Elections

by Shaun Kenney

There’s a common theme among Virginia Republican number crunchers that Fairfax County is the snake that swallowed the bowling ball.

More accurately, that no matter how well Republicans might seem to do across the Commonwealth, when 1.3 million Fairfax County residents make their voices heard, that’s a massive fraction of the nearly 9 million Virginians who live here.

Which leads us to point #2 that Republican number crunchers make all the time, namely that the western part of Virginia from Roanoke to Lee County is our Fairfax County.

So how do we do in a place which the locals affectionately call “real Virginia” (in response to the feeling in Southwest Virginia that many in Richmond believe Virginia stops at Roanoke)?

It looks like this:

Former Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Pat Mullins made it his life’s mission to make sure Southwest Virginia was the focal point of all our efforts. There was a good reason for it.

Not only was Mullins a native of Southwest Virginia, but he lived in Northern Virginia most of his career and knew firsthand that the only way to counterbalance the “come-heres” from points north was to encourage the “been-heres” in Southwest Virginia who share Republican values yet receive none of the love showered upon places such as Loudoun or Prince William.

It is often joked that West Virginia — were it ever to be reincorporated into the loving arms of the Old Dominion — would ensure that Virginia would remain a Republican stronghold for the next 50 years. Yet western Virginia remains an untapped resource for consistent Republican (or conservative) grassroots mobilizing.

In 2014, Republicans came within a smidge of winning statewide before enduring a seven-year drought. With US Senate elections coming up in a battleground year for Virginia in 2024, Republicans would be well-advised to start focusing and building where there is much to gain.

Shaun Kenney is the editor of The Republican Standard, former chairman of the Board of Supervisors for Fluvanna County, and a former executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia. This column has been republished with permission from The Republican Standard.


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Comments

24 responses to “New VPAP Modelling Shows Why Virginia Republicans Are Losing Elections”

  1. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    On reason Republicans are losing in this state is because they refuse to fully exploit the new early voting and mail voting rules the Democrats installed under cover of the pandemic. The rules aren’t changing so start your own vote harvesting and beat them at their own game. Certainly start in SW Virginia and other areas of GOP strength.

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Well, that and they’re a bunch of unreasonable jerks perhaps?

    2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      Amen. Bonanza ballot harvest the Virginia Ponderosa like a Cartright. The big question is can the Republican Party of Virginia pull in the same direction at the same time?
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/be1494c2f4f5a2167435bfede3262b74f4f99883012fa0d9619b0a2925f64d4b.jpg

      1. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        Bonanza and Ponderosa, both steakhouses owned by the same company and which used to once be quite common but are now practically non-existent.

        I wonder if there’s a parallel here…

        1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
          James Wyatt Whitehead

          I always thought Rustler or York were a little better.

          1. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            There was once a York in Manassas Mall. I don’t remember it, I just know it was there. By the time I moved to Manassas, it had been replaced with King’s Court, which from what I know of York seemed to be about the same concept and layout.

          2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            I was in the old mall a few weeks back. Totally different now. York had this steak tips with mushrooms onions and gravy. Sooo gooood! Plus you could go to the arcade after dinner and drain mom and dad’s supply of quarters.

          3. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I wonder how long the Sears space (which was originally Montgomery Wards) will remain empty.

          4. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            It would make a nice data center.

          5. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            That’s what’s going next door, on that undeveloped parcel with the farmhouse.

          6. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            No kidding? The ultimate holdouts have given up the ghost. Prince William truly has no soul now. Pave the Rural Crescent too. The trees are blocking my view.

          7. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Yep.. Datacenters on the commercial strip.

            I don’t know if I’ll be able to put up with this area long enough to make out big by selling my house and lot to a developer who wants to put a Taco Bell and a used-car lot on it.

  2. how_it_works Avatar
    how_it_works

    “who share Republican values yet receive none of the love showered upon places such as Loudoun or Prince William”

    What kind of love is he talking about? Love like losing a general-purpose lane on I66 so they could have HOT lanes instead? That kind of love?

    1. DJRippert Avatar

      Exactly. Another comment from a self-proclaimed self-sufficient resident of “real Virginia” who happily accepts socialist-like money transfers from “fake Virginia” to pay for his schools, Medicaid, police, jails, etc.

      You want to fix Virginia? Divide the state into seven autonomous regions which have to raise all the taxes necessary for all the government functions they consume. The “real Virginia” would quickly depopulate as people moved to places with economic opportunity.

      1. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        Shaun Kenney has no problem running his mouth about things he has no clue about.

        I recall him criticizing Prince William County’s actions regarding illegal immigration while he was on the BOS of Fluvanna County.

  3. how_it_works Avatar
    how_it_works

    Hmm, I thought it had something to do with running campaigns that are so disorganized that election literature is arriving in mailboxes 2 days after the election?

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      They’ll tell ya that it was a USPS conspiracy.

      1. Stephen Haner Avatar
        Stephen Haner

        No, it is a postal union conspiracy…But can often be an incompetent mail vendor, too. 🙂 Campaign mail gets first class treatment, but that ain’t what it used to be across the board. And October mailings are proof they are ignoring the early vote window…

        1. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          If it was that the mail wouldn’t arrive at all, instead of just being late.

          1. DJRippert Avatar

            And the Democrat mailings would be late too.

        2. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Anything… but the candidate.

  4. Turbocohen Avatar
    Turbocohen

    Censorship, BR?

  5. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    Ich bin ein Transplant.

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