I’m always on the look-out for niche economic development strategies, and I think I’ve spotted one in New Kent County. In “New Kent Ferment,” I write about a huge project underway, New Kent Vineyards, that could generate $1.5 billion in development over 15 to 20 years. The secret: Tapping the 55-and-older retirement/pre-retirement market.
Retirees are souring on Florida. Blame hurricanes, the threat of global warming, Al Gore’s scary video showing half the Florida peninsula swallowed by rising sea levels, and soaring insurance premiums. Plus, baby boomers tend to want to settle in a retirement community within a day’s drive of their own home, so they can stay in touch with family and friends. North Carolina is the new East Coast retirement hot spot, but Virginia is looking pretty good, too.
Affluent retirees are a gold mine. They pay lots of taxes but demand little in the way of services. Their kids have grown up, so they don’t burden local schools. They don’t commit crimes. And they’re well off enough that they don’t qualify for Medicaid. In New Kent County, of $250,000 is the break-even point for housing prices. The vast majority of houses in New Kent Vineyards will sell for more than $350,000, meaning that most households will pay more in property taxes than they demand in local government services.
Pete Johns, managing partner of New Kent Vineyards, has structured the project so that it is a net contributor to the county tax base from Day One. An $86 million Community Development Authority pays for water, sewer and roadway infrastructure improvements up front. Another $7,500 per house in proffers will underwrite the cost of a police/fire/rescue sub-station. Schools are not an issue.
There’s nothing remarkably scenic about New Kent County. The land is mostly flat, with a few gentle hills and not much waterfront. But New Kent Vineyards is creating a number of distinguishing features: a winery, a Rees Jones golf course, a polo field and a neotraditional town center with farmer’s market and two-block pedestrian mall. New Kent County also benefits from proximity to other assets within easy reach: Colonial Williamsburg, the beach and the Chesapeake Bay. Oh, yeah, and access to an Interstate highway, and two commercial airports within easy driving distance.
Not every woebegone rural location in Virginia can muster such a mix of assets, but a number of them can. A good number can do even better, offering mountain vistas or recreational boating. North Carolina has figured it out already. Virginia, it seems, is learning.
There are three caveats, two of which I explore in my column: traffic congestion, affordable housing and environmental impact. While a development like New Kent Vineyards is tax-positive for New Kent County, it is less clear whether it is tax-positive overall when traffic, housing and run-off are taken into consideration. But, then, the Vineyards project is clearly preferable to the alternative — by-right development leading to scattered, disconnected, low-density development — which is what New Kent would get in its absence.