Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

More Immigrants, Less Crime?

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by

James A. Bacon
in

There’s a flip side to the commentary I posted yesterday, “Good Idea: Deporting Criminal Aliens,” in which I argued that it makes sense to deport illegal aliens convicted of crimes and sitting in Virginia jails — a position I still support, by the way. However, focusing on the criminality of a relatively few illegal aliens does tend to unfairly stigmatize the whole group.

There are many things that can legitimately be said about illegal immigration: It depresses wages for unskilled Americans, and it adds a burden to schools and hospitals. But it does not threaten to swamp Americans in a wave of crime.

Indeed, according to a study by the Immigration Policy Center, illegal immigrants have significantly lower incarceration rates than native-born Americans. Some interesting factoids from the study:

  • Even as the undocumented population has doubled to 12 million since 1994, the violent crime rate in the United States has declined 34.2 percent and the property crime rate has fallen 26.4 percent.
  • Among men age 18-39 (who comprise the vast majority of the prison population), the 3.5 percent incarceration rate of the native-born in 2000 was five times higher.
  • The foreign-born incarceration rate in 2000 was nearly two-and-a-half times less than the 1.7 percent rate for native born non-Hispanic white men and almost 17 times less than the 11.6 percent rate for native-born black men.
  • Native-born Hispanic men were nearly seven times more likely to be in prison than foreign-born Hispanic men in 2000, while the incarceration rate of native-born non-Hispanic white men was almost three times higher than that of foreign-born white men.

Bottom line: The shorter the time spent in the United States, the less likely an illegal immigrant is to run afoul of the law. The longer the time spent here, the more likely aliens are to become criminals. And we want them to acculturate to our culture? Maybe we have something to learn from them.

Caveat: You always have to be cautious dealing with data like this, which the Immigration Policy Center is spinning in the most pro-immigrant light. I would ask this question: Are the study authors comparing apples to apples? Is the incarceration rate the most valid unit of comparison? Why not the conviction rate? Presumably, people convicted of a first or second crime are less likely to be incarcerated for lengthy periods of time than career criminals. Illegal immigrants, being new to the country, have a lot of catching up to do. I don’t know the answers — I’m just asking questions, trying to reach the truth.

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10 responses to “More Immigrants, Less Crime?”

  1. Tim Vettel, American Immigration Law Foundation Avatar
    Tim Vettel, American Immigration Law Foundation

    The Immigration Policy Center (IPC) appreciates your blogging this important issue. Although we feel that our report stands well on its own, it is not the only report or study out there on this issue. The studies go back more than 100 years and all of them find the same thing — as you point out in your blog — immigrants are LESS likely to engage in criminal behavior than are the native born. [Check out the studies at this link: http://www.ailf.org/ipc/special_report/sr_feb07_resources.shtml ]

    The IPC recently released an Open Letter on Immigrants and Crime that was delivered to all members of Congress, the White House, and all state Governors. It was signed by more than 130 of the nation’s top experts on the issue of immigrants and crime. All of them agree: it is a myth that immigration leads to an increase in the crime rate. Here’s a link to that letter: http://www.ailf.org/ipc/ipc_openletter0507.shtml

    All that they, and all that IPC asks, is that the public hold legislators and government officials responsible for acting in the public interest based on facts, not on myths. Thanks again.

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I suppose if the threat of deportation hangs over your head, then you are less likely to get in trouble.

  3. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Jim:

    Congratulations to you for taking on this very important topic. The level of debate and shrillness of this argument (namely, are illegal immigrants really more prone to criminal behavior) is unbelievable.

    I have been lurking on the Black Velvet Bruce Li blog since the Manassass uproar – just trying to understand the perspective of the people from that site (very anti illegal immigrant).

    Most bloggers on that site seem totally convinced that illegal immigrants are causing what can only be described as a massive crime wave within the US.

    I have serious doubts about the legitimacy of the anti illegal immigrant crowd’s “facts and figures”. However, those “facts and figures” are presented as being quite clear.

    For example, from a recent blog posting:

    INS/FBI Statistical Report on Undocumented Immigrants
    2006 (First Quarter)
    95% of warrants for murder in Los Angeles are for illegal aliens.
    83% of warrants for murder in Phoenix are for illegal aliens.
    86% of warrants for murder in Albuquerque are for illegal aliens.
    75% of those on the most wanted list in Los Angeles, Phoenix and Albuquerque are illegal aliens.
    24.9% of all inmates in California detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally
    40.1% of all inmates in Arizona detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally
    48.2% of all inmates in New Mexico detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally
    29% (630,000) convicted illegal alien felons fill our state and federal prisons at a cost of $1.6 billion annually
    53% plus of all investigated burglaries reported in California, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona and Texas are perpetrated by illegal aliens.
    50% plus of all gang members in Los Angeles are illegal aliens from south of the border.
    71% plus of all apprehended cars stolen in 2005 in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California were stolen by Illegal aliens or “transport coyotes”.
    47% of cited/stopped drivers in California have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 47%, 92% are illegal aliens.
    63% of cited/stopped drivers in Arizona have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 63%, 97% are illegal aliens
    66% of cited/stopped drivers in New Mexico have no license, no insurance and no registration for the vehicle. Of that 66% 98% are illegal aliens.”.

  4. Ambivalent Richmonder Avatar
    Ambivalent Richmonder

    I’ve been trying to verify those very dubious numbers you quote, and the only places I can find who use them are conservative, anti-immigration blogs and websites.

    Then I realized, the INS ceased to exist in 2003. So I highly doubt any numbers that seem so unlikely, are not substantiated anywhere by links to actual gov’t reports, and cite a defunct organization as their source.

  5. NOVA Scout Avatar
    NOVA Scout

    The amount of nonsense that passes as gospel in this area is staggering. One doesn’t have to ascribe to illegal immigrants a higher moral fiber to understand that criminality will generally be lower in that group than in the general population. If we all snuck in to Guatemala City to feed our families, we’d probably lie fairly low. Whatever the legitimate issues with illegal immigration (and there are several) they are not related to crime. Local efforts to stigmatize immigrants could change that, however, as legal and illegal immigrants become mistrustful of local law enforcement authorities. One stat cited in Groveton’s exemplar of anti-illegal claims that may have some validity is that which deals with unlicensed drivers. It totally escapes me why it would be good policy to exclude immigrants (legal or illegal) from effective licensing programs, including requirements for insurance. The last thing I want in my neighborhood is a universe of underground drivers. Don’t tell me that someone has a workable acceptable policy for forcing all these people back to Tegucigalpa. While we’re waiting for that level of genius to emerge, I want these people passing tests, getting licenses and being part of the system.

  6. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Maybe I am insulated from all of this. I have live in Fairfax County most of my life. I’ve seen the influx of immigtants from Latin America. I assume that some of them are legal and some are not. However:

    1. The latinos and latinas seem no more prone to criminal behavior than anyone else.

    2. All the immigrants are working hard at jobs that most “born in thr USA” Americans don’t seem to want.

    However, I feel like I must be missing something. From Manassas to Herndon to Hazleton, PA there is a hue and cry by normal citizens about illegal immigration.

    This nationwide complaining has a list of “facts” and “horror stoies” about illegal immigrants and their behavior.

    So, I am presented with a tough question –

    Are the immigrants from Latin America really a lawless band of people who are ruining the US or are the citizens of many different communities just anti-Hispanic racists?

    There seems to be very little room for an unemotional disucssion here. And the anti-illegal rhetoric either points out a huge hidden problem or it points out broad based racism.

    I’d love to hear a viewpoint that explains the anti-illegal immigration rhetoric as something other than prejudice. But, when you hear and read the words, those words are pretty hard to swallow.

  7. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Are the immigrants from Latin America really a lawless band of people who are ruining the US or are the citizens of many different communities just anti-Hispanic racists?”

    People don’t experience “crime in PW County”. They experience crime in their very own neighborhoods. As I noted in a previous post, if illegal immigrants move into a neighborhood with an already high crime rate, the crime rate may very well go down, especially to the extent that they replace those in the neighborhood who are committing or contributing to the crime rate.

    On the other hand, if they move into a neighborhood with a low crime rate, like most middle/working class neighborhoods, the crime rate may go up, especially if they are renting rooms to transient, single young men. That the crime rate in an large entity (PW County) stayed the same or even went down overall doesn’t particularly impress these people, and why should it? They feel less safe WHERE THEY LIVE.

    As I pointed out, my apartment complex in Alexandria formerly rented to a lot of middle-aged people (largely women) and retirees, both of which tended to live there for years (I lived there 17 years myself). The crime rate was next to zero. When we experienced an influx of immigrants (some legal, some likely illegal) who brought “unofficial renters”, often young single men, into the complex, causing numerous problems, we had a huge bounce in crime FOR THAT NEIGHBORHOOD. My downstairs neighbor, a man in his 70’s, had an attempted home invasion. This in a neighborhood where I used to go to the basement to do laundry without even locking my front door. For a while it seemed that we had the crime of the month as the management (to their credit) posted crimes in the complex, asking us to give evidence if we had any to give.

    Think of it: a home invasion having gone on about 6 feet below you when you are coming home from work after dark a lot of the time.

    The people reacting to the CONDITIONS created in their community usually have been perfectly happy to have Hispanic families in their community, often for years. They are reacting not to the race of their new neighbors but to the conditions that these new neighbors have imposed on the neighborhood: deteriorating public spaces, over-crowded housing, schools that cost more and educate less as they struggle with large ESL classes, and, yes, rising NEIGHBORHOOD crime. These people aren’t racists, they are realists.

    I have also noted that people who don’t have to deal with this problem personally seem to have little patience with those who do. There’s nothing like having a de facto boarding house open in your single-family housing neighborhood or seeing the effects of a massive infusion of non-English speaking children on your child’s neighborhod school to “focus the mind greatly”. I’ve seen these sorts of things change minds totally.

    Deena Flinchum

  8. CG2 Avatar
    CG2

    One doesn’t need to go beyond Prince William’s own crime statistics to find that as the immigrant population has gone up in the county crime has gone down overall. Exceptions? Street robberies disproportionately focused on Latinos/Hispanics, one of which ended in the murder of a father of three on his way home from work by two teens, in their own words, “out to get a Mexican.”

    Where is the outcry against “hate violence” being perpetrated in Prince William County by resident teens?

    Would we say that the effects of having “massive intrusion” of African American children into “your child’s neighborhood school” when Prince William schools were finally desegregated 40 years ago more than a decade after Brown v. Board of Education “focus[ed] the mind greatly?”

    Have there been community meetings neighbor to neighbor or lead by county officials seeking to address the legitimate concerns about de facto boarding houses and deteriorating public spaces? Has anyone sought to enroll the new neighbors in alleviating some of these quality of life concerns?

    Has anyone thought to ask whether all children might be better served in this increasingly globally competitive world if everyone in the county schools learned a second language? Wouldn’t that engage children in a common experience where they could teach and learn from each other as they all seek to learn a second language?

    I’m sorry, but no matter how this issue is spun and despite the probability that some number among those who oppose illegal immigration are genuinely not influenced by the ethnicity of the current crop of immigrants, there is an ethnic and class issue here that we must confront and acknowledge.

    More on Prince William crime stats here.

  9. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “I’m sorry, but no matter how this issue is spun and despite the probability that some number among those who oppose illegal immigration are genuinely not influenced by the ethnicity of the current crop of immigrants, there is an ethnic and class issue here that we must confront and acknowledge.”

    Well, no, not really. People who try to defend the indefensible (people entering the US illegally) naturally like to play the race card because it tends to shut down debate. Nobody wants to be called a racist. The vast majority of the people whom I know who are dealing with the CONDITIONS that are being inflicted on their neighborhoods, their childrens’ schools, and, yes, their safety could not care less if the people causing the problems were Swedes or Mexicans. They just want the problems to stop. Are some people motivated by racism? Almost certainly, yes, but they are a minority.

    During the busing crisis, Thurgood Marshall was confronted by someone (a media type, I assume) who asked him if he wasn’t being just a tad insincere to the struggle because he put his own children in private schools. His response was something to the effect that he didn’t apologize for looking out for the best interests of his children, an A+ for a perfectly honest answer. I certainly don’t doubt that TM was more devoted to the civil rights struggle than most, but he obviously wasn’t about to sacrifice his own childrens’ futures to be what we’d now call politically correct. TM was fortunate enough to be able to afford private schools for his children. Not everybody is as financially solid and well connected as TM and those who aren’t should no more apologize for looking out for the best interests of their children than he did.

    If people feel unable to “look out for the best interests of their children” where the are, they will move elsewhere. Where will they go? Farther out. What will you end up with in the area they left? Lousy schools, high drop-out rates, a weak tax base, and a long-term tax-paying citizenry less and less engaged with and interested in the civic life, including schools. They don’t have children in the schools and so therefore have little need for what is likely the single most expensive local commodity – public education. Why should they care abut schools? For the most part, their kids are grown and have moved out to Loudoun, Stafford, etc; they are rich enough to either send their kids to private schools or they live in an exclusive school district; or the don’t have any kids. So why should they be willing to pay high taxes to support schools, especially as the quality keeps going down as the costs keep going up?

    Remember, for every person who got famous stoning school buses back in the 70’s busing demonstrations, thousands simply voted with their feet without saying a word.

    Deena Flinchum

  10. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I think the main issue here is accountability. These illegals have nothing tying them to the community. They are not as afraid to commit a crime because they can up an leave. The rest of us do not want to commit a crime because of the punishments that follow that we cannot get away from, the jail sentence, the family members condemning you, the neighbors knowing that you are a criminal. Illegals are not bound by this. They can up and move on a moment’s notice. There is no bond to the community. They did not come from this community, so they don’t care about it.

    As a law enforcement officer, it pains me to see the way certain areas of Fairfax and NOVA have changed due to illegal aliens.

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