Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

More Fun with Demographics

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by

sherlockj
in

by James C. Sherlock

We had so much fun with the Texas-Virginia comparison, I offer additional demographic estimates of jurisdictional growth and decline in the one year from July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022, courtesy of the Census Bureau.

Virginia Top 5 Jurisdictions in Numeric Growth July 1, 2021 – July 1, 2022

  • Chesterfield County 7,132
  • Loudoun County 3,650
  • Spotsylvania County 2,731
  • Suffolk City 2,209
  • Stafford County 1,796

Virginia Top 3 Jurisdictions in Percentage Growth July 1, 2021 – July 1, 2022

  • New Kent County 4%
  • Louisa County 3%
  • Highland County 3%

Virginia Top 5 Jurisdictions in Numeric Decline July 1, 2021 – July 1, 2022

  • Fairfax County -3,314
  • Virginia Beach -3,062
  • Norfolk -2,030
  • Roanoke -897
  • Portsmouth -609

Virginia Top Three Jurisdictions in Percentage Decline July 1, 2021 – July 1, 2022

  • Buchanan County -3%
  • Emporia City -3%
  • Manassas Park City -2%
  • Greensville County – 2% (tie)

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97 responses to “More Fun with Demographics”

  1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    The three new people who moved to Highland County explains the 3% jump. One of four frontier counties in Virginia.

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      I drove through Highland County years ago. It’s almost almost Heaven.

      1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
        James C. Sherlock

        You have to love the latest news from The Recorder, “hometown newspaper for Bath, Highland, and Allegheny Counties, Virginia, since 1877”.

        Front page headlines fro Yesterday’s paper:
        “Vietnam Veterans Honored by VFW”; and
        “Registered or not, farm-use vehicles are taxable”

        On Facebook:

        “This week, Curtie Gutshall and Mike Herold continued scraping paint on the front of the new Recorder building in Monterey. Mike noticed letters emerging from the wood. On closer inspection, we determined it clearly said, “J. LUNSFORD & SONS.” Jacob Lunsford built the store in 1900. He operated as “Trimble & Lunsford” until 1903, and then became “Lunsford & Sons.” The store sold all manner of general merchandise — everything from medicines and furniture to dry goods and fur pelts. If you’re walking by on Main Street in Monterey this week, have a look! No doubt Mr. Lunsford would be so pleased that his name is still embedded on his store.”

        Reporting is alive and well in the mountains. And the local people love it. I wish I had a getaway house up there.

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          So, buy one. Or buy a patch of land and have a mobile home put on it. Dad’s best investment was buying a 1/2 acre on Brunswick Lake in 1970 with a dilapidated 1950s trailer on it for $2,500. He and Mom spent 10 years rebuilding the trailer, adding a 16×40 screened-in porch on it and a dock on the shore (not in that order) and sold it for $27,000.

          1. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I guess most Virginia counties don’t prohibit mobile homes, but Prince William County does. Cannot have one even if you own the land. Any that exist are grandfathered.

        2. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Best kind of reporting too. Short, sweet, and to the point. Picked up the Stowe VT weekly once. Loved it. “Sheriff Smith reports that Billy Donavan spent the night in jail after being found with two of his neighbor’s chickens and an as-of-yet identified pig in his pickup. The chickens have been returned.”

        3. Lefty665 Avatar
          Lefty665

          The Central Virginian newspaper in Louisa used to run stories like that. It may still.

          We used to go to the Maple Sugar Festival in Highland County. Expect that’s still going strong too. Purty county.

          1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
            James C. Sherlock

            Maple Sugar Festival just ended. Next year in late March again.

        4. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Best kind of reporting too. Short, sweet, and to the point. Picked up the Stowe VT weekly once. Loved it. “Sheriff Smith reports that Billy Donavan spent the night in jail after being found with two of his neighbor’s chickens and an as-of-yet identified pig in his pickup. The chickens have been returned.”

        5. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
          energyNOW_Fan

          You spelled Allegheny wrong, for a Pittsburgh native. Wonder why Pittsburgh and Philly are dropping? They have lower tax bite. Pittsburgh could be senior population reaching end of life.

    2. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      If you have been there, you will wonder where the 60 new people (estimated number) actually live. Nice to see, though, that one of Virginia’s prettiest and most unique counties is not withering away.

      1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead

        There is nothing like it anywhere. Some of the nicest people I have ever met. Highland is home to one of the best preserved Civil War battlefields in McDowell. Jackson’s victory launched the dazzling display of outmarching and fighting the Yankees during the 1862 Valley Campaign. Blue and Gray Virginians faced off in one of the bloodiest close range musket fights of the war. Those West Virginians nearly won the day. Tough hike though. Sitlington’s Hill is not for whimps.
        https://www.battlefields.org/learn/maps/mcdowell-may-8-1862

  2. how_it_works Avatar
    how_it_works

    That may or may not have anything to do with Manassas Park’s ridiculous real estate taxes.

    As an aside, I once met one of the former mayors of Manassas Park. I think his name is Frank Murphy. This was sometime in 2010, I think.

    He told me that all of Manassas Park’s problems were because Prince William County wouldn’t let them do this, wouldn’t let them do that, wouldn’t let them have a grocery store, etc. etc.

    Keeping in mind that Manassas Park had become an independent city nearly 35 years prior…it became very clear to me, at that moment, one major cause of Manassas Park’s problems…and Prince William County was a very small part of it, if any.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      just curious. what do you think of Stafford just south of Prince William? Better? Worse? why?

      1. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        No idea, never lived there. Don’t really pay much attention to the goings-on in Stafford. On the other hand….I lived in Manassas Park for way too long…..

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Was sorta wondering if Stafford is destined for the same fate as Prince William as folks
          move further out for affordable housing.

          We are seeing a very significant number of apartments being built in Stafford, Fredericksburg,
          and Spotsylvania these days – all very near to the I-95 interchanges.

  3. Teddy007 Avatar
    Teddy007

    The issue with Arizona is where are they going to find the water and the energy to keep the population growing. When the high temp in Phoenix starts hitting 120 degrees, there is a limit how many people can live there.

    1. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      But that’s dry heat…

      1. Teddy007 Avatar
        Teddy007

        How many in PHoenix still have a swamp cooler?

        1. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          They still make them, so someone’s buying them…

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            off-grid solar-powered

          2. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Swamp coolers don’t use much power, it’s just a fan. Much less power than needed for an AC compressor.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            and works pretty good in low humidity regions.

          4. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            They don’t work very well, if at all, in places like Virginia. I am not a fan of the hot humid summers here.

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            No they don’t work much at all in humid places. Won’t see them in Florida.

          6. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            VW used to sell a mini swamp-cooler back in the 60s for their campers.

            Once while on a camping trip, I made the decision to sleep in the car (the second bear showing up at my campsite did it). I hung two soaked towels over the front window openings, and it got downright cold in the car.

    2. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      High temperature hasn’t seemed to be a barrier to population density in India.

      1. Teddy007 Avatar
        Teddy007

        The highest temp in mumbai is 108 degrees F. The highest temp in Delhi is 111. Also, either place is running out of water unlike Phoenix.

        1. Lefty665 Avatar
          Lefty665

          Had an Indian accountant who worked for me. Richmond would be up close to 100 and she’d have her office windows open. As far as she was concerned it was a nice spring day.

    3. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Coober Pedy…
      “ The harsh summer desert temperatures mean that many residents prefer to live in caves bored into the hillsides (“dugouts”). A standard three-bedroom cave home with lounge, kitchen, and bathroom can be excavated out of the rock in the hillside for a similar price to building a house on the surface. However, dugouts remain at a constant temperature, while surface buildings need air conditioning, especially during the summer months, when temperatures often exceed 40 °C (104 °F). The relative humidity rarely gets over 20% on these hot days, and the skies are usually cloud-free. The average maximum temperature is 30–32 °C (86–90 °F), but it can get quite cool in the winter.”

      1. Teddy007 Avatar
        Teddy007

        The issue is that the indoor air quality of living in a cave is horrible since there are no air exchanges with the outside. higher radon levels and more odors. And every exchange with the outside takes energy.

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          And living outside in Phoenix is better? I dunno, I suspect the folks in Coober Pedy have figured out some sort of snorkeling.

          While living in Texas, we went to a couple of the commercial caves. Natural Caverns was one, and it was only discovered when UT students found cool air coming from a small opening. Apparently it doesn’t take much of an opening for the air in caves to turn over. When they “opened” the cave to the public, they installed a double door arrangement to keep the turnover close to the natural level.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d6323914264ec9a148aa16fe034cf24cdba4176021f42761ec7d46214a41b854.jpg

            https://www.onlyinyourstate.com/idaho/ice-cave-id/

        2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          One could just build a well insulated standard house and exchange the heat and cold from the earth… easier than building the house in the earth… without the drawbacks you cite.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Back before electricity and refrigeration… people built ice houses in the ground … got river ice or froze water and put it in the hole with straw and had ice year round!

          2. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            A geoheatpump costs more than $50k. How many homes are worth enough to rate a $50k hvac system?

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            is it cheaper in the longer run?

            is it the up-front cost that is the problem – not the long term savings?

          4. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            I’d say more like $25-30k a then you get like a 25% tax credit. Less than the cost of most new cars.

      2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Or if your power goes out in the summer, sleep in your basement… built-in geothermal…

  4. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Watching the demographics on a 1-year basis is like buying 2 shares of BRK-A and watching it in the realtime quotes. Kinda fun, I suppose, but meaningless in the grand scheme.

    1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      Fun it is. Meaningless? – we’ll see. Virginia Beach’s loss of 4,000 residents in two years is not insignificant.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Well, affordable housing could be defined by number of houses per family.

      2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        <1% of the population – pretty insignificant

  5. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    So happy the days of double digit growth rates are behind us here in Loudoun.

    1. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      May Loudoun be blessed by the 1/4 million escapees from California and New York. I’m sure you will find the “population change rates are pretty flat”.

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Doesn’t look like they are heading this way. Still probably too pricey here. I wouldn’t care if Loudoun turned even more blue though…

        1. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          Even Loudoun is still a bargain compared to some places in California. At least until 1950s-era shacks on 1/4 acre lots good for nothing more than a date with a wrecking ball start going for over a million.

          1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            True that…. same goes for some NY locales… although not too many 1950s-era things out here at all…

          2. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Much of NoVA was still forest or fields in 1950.

            Much of NoVA also looks like it was haphazardly slapped together as quickly as possible, too…

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            well, and that’s how they drive also when they migrate to Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania!

            Especially the offspring of NoVa refugees… ugh!

          4. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I heartily support anyone moving out of Virginia. Someday I will do so myself.

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            just be careful what you wish for – “grass is greener” guy!

          6. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            As I posted elsewhere, I do not view Virginia with rose-colored glasses.

            Neither do I complain about the people in NoVA tainting it’s pristine heritage, or whatever .

            I view those people who complain about that as I do those people in Manassas who say how great it used to be till all those Hispanics moved in.

            Manassas was never “great”. It was always trash central.

          7. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Never knew. I’ve been all over the East Coast, more in the south than north but my
            impression of Raleigh Durham and Charlotte is not much different than Nova in terms of
            traffic and “culture”. Asheville and environs much more to my liking. Western NC is great
            scenery and rivers but similar to Western Va in “culture”, they trash some of their rivers with
            junk cars and other offal.

          8. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            True that…. same goes for some NY locales… although not too many 1950s-era things out here at all…

  6. Lefty665 Avatar
    Lefty665

    Keep an eye out, some of the Californians and New Yorkers abandoning those states may decide to infect Virginia. There is evidence that at least a few of them already have.

    1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      Both CA and NY population change rates are pretty flat.

      1. Lefty665 Avatar
        Lefty665

        California and New York hold 4 of the top 5 population loss spots and 6 of the top 10 on the list of Top 10 Counties in population decline in this post. That is about a quarter million people moving out in the last year.

        Try again troll your misrepresentation once again fails.

        1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          Didn’t figure that I would have to explain the difference between total population change and rate of change. LA County’s reduction of 90,000 is still less than 1% of its population. Sorry, that is a blip.

          Here is NY’s last 3 years: 2022 -0.91%, 2021 -1.25%, 2020 3.31%.

          CA: 2022 -0.29%, 2021 -0.91%, 2020 0.16%, 2019 0.00%

          Really pretty flat… nobody is abandoning anything.

          1. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            It ain’t flat. It is the largest loss reported. #1 on the list.

          2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Actually, many other counties exceed it. Buchanan County, Virginia has experienced a decline of more than 3 times that if LA County.

          3. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            “Actually, many other counties exceed it. Buchanan County, Virginia has experienced a decline of more than 3 times that if LA County.”

            Pull the other one, it’s got bells on.

            Buchanan has not lost more than 270,000 people, 3x LA’s 90k.

            Population of Buchanan is less than 20k total. They’d have had to import a quarter of a million people to have lost 270,000 and there would still be nobody in the entire county.

            Buchanan’s 3% decrease would be about 600 people. LA’s 1% decrease was more than 90,000 more than that, more than 4X Buchanan’s entire population.

            Liars, damn liars, statisticians and trolls.

          4. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            California has lost more than 1.2M people since 2019. Even in California that is not “pretty flat”.

          5. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Ummm… I gave you the CA % and over three years it nets out at about 1% total of the total population over 3 years – with most of that happening in one year – i.e. pretty flat. Not seeing your 1.2 million anywhere. See attached.

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bf6b46d61e792d4ddcdee7128a3575b6cbf3b6796d4e6c2e11dfd1977a798e8d.jpg

  7. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Texas got California, Virginia and New York beat on this:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bfffb55867f4488d755084a82bd29b71256136a79b679c1cc8cb9bfee2982205.jpg

    1. Teddy007 Avatar
      Teddy007

      Goes along with the demographic changes in Texas. Amazing that the state with the lowest out of wedlock birth rate and the highest out of wedlock birth rate both vote for Republicans.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Perhaps. But they can’t gerrymander forever…as those younguns grow up to vote.

        And look at those other high percent states…. across the south and up through the midwest to Ohio.

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          They’ll try.

        2. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          They’ll try.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            and apparently SCOTUS is willing to help…

        3. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          Must be a “cultural” thing…

        4. Teddy007 Avatar
          Teddy007

          Seems like it is a function of black and Hispanic population.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Yes. Well, any area where younger and more diverse populations expand and overtake the
            older white population.

          2. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            Not only overtake but usual manage to push out. White flight has been with us since the 1960’s.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Gentrify? Takes bucks from older folk who have paid off their college loans ? 😉

          4. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            gentrification occurs on a small scale. White flight takes on a large scale. The first sign of white flight is the ratio of white 4 y/o to 7 y/o children. When the white families the local public schools are bad, it is either flee or pay for private schools.

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            I agree. Do you think it is “white flight” when folks move from NoVa to Spotsylvania?

          6. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            Mountain View High School in Stafford County is 60% white. Oakton High school is Fairfax county is 45% white. If whites are leaving Fairfax, it is to get away from Asian students and the associated tiger moms.

          7. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            ah…. looks like some Fairfax schools are very white and others much more “color”. All about
            the neighborhood…

          8. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            Even Langley High school with 2% free lunch is only 59% white. That is probably the whitest high school in Fairfax County. There is no such thing as a very white high school in Fairfax, Arlington, or Alexandria. Look it up.

          9. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Yep. But there are VERY not-white schools and I suspect neighborhood income and home value demographics play some role in staying or leaving, etc. If you do an extract for all schools
            in Fairfax for SOLs for build-a-table , you’ll see some shocking differences.

          10. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            If one goes back to no child left behind data, one will see is that Fairfax does not have good schools but has good students. Why? Because even in schools with great test scores over all, some subgroups performed poorly such as Hispanic students or blacks.

          11. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            yeah but….. some schools in Fairfax have very good overall SOL scores and some have overall terrible scores…. Same school system, same administrators, etc…

            And we’d know none of this without the law that requires it be disclosed.

          12. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            You are going to have to be more specific. Lake Braddock Secondary School did well overall but the black students and Hispanic students underperformed according to the state. One has to get by the magic dirt fallacy.

          13. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            looking at overall school scores in build-a-table, not broken down by subgroups.

            so some schools in Fairfax – at the overall level do very well and some schools in
            Fairfax – at the school level do not good.

            You could break it down further – the data is there.

            but my point was that some schools score well overall and some not.

            I’m of the view that if you look at sub-groups that economically disadvantaged scores are going to track the black/hispanic scores…. i.e. many are low income from familes is lower education levels.

          14. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Here’s what I mean (Grade 3 reading SOLS):

            Lynbrook Elementary 30.38
            Dogwood Elementary 32.1
            Hutchison Elementary 32.65
            Hybla Valley Elementary 34.96
            Glen Forest Elementary 35.77
            Bailey’s Upper Elementary School for the Arts and Sciences 37.36
            Braddock Elementary 37.7
            Herndon Elementary 38.18
            Woodlawn Elementary 39.34
            Weyanoke Elementary 40.54
            Brookfield Elementary 41.58
            Graham Road Elementary 43.55
            North Springfield Elementary 43.86
            Forestdale Elementary 44.07
            Mount Eagle Elementary 44.23
            Groveton Elementary 45.05
            Crestwood Elementary 45.83
            Westlawn Elementary 46.43
            Washington Mill Elementary 47.62
            Pine Spring Elementary 47.95
            Annandale Terrace Elementary 48.19
            Timber Lane Elementary 48.21
            Sleepy Hollow Elementary 48.48
            Bucknell Elementary 50
            Lorton Station Elementary 50
            Centre Ridge Elementary 50.54
            Riverside Elementary 51
            Dranesville Elementary 51.47
            Woodley Hills Elementary 51.56
            Parklawn Elementary 51.92
            Cameron Elementary 53.7
            Mason Crest Elementary 54.02
            Woodburn Elementary 55.38
            Mount Vernon Woods Elementary 55.68
            Hollin Meadows Elementary 57.47
            London Towne Elementary 57.89
            Olde Creek Elementary 58.14
            Lake Anne Elementary 59.34
            Cunningham Park Elementary 59.65
            Daniels Run Elementary 60.61
            Bren Mar Park Elementary 61.02
            Providence Elementary 61.11
            Virginia Run Elementary 61.11
            Saratoga Elementary 63.01
            Clearview Elementary 63.41
            Deer Park Elementary 63.49
            Halley Elementary 63.53
            Rose Hill Elementary 64
            Belle View Elementary 64.29
            Coates Elementary 65.05
            Fort Belvoir Upper Elementary 65.07
            Bull Run Elementary 65.52
            Gunston Elementary 65.52
            Garfield Elementary 65.85
            Shrevewood Elementary 65.96
            Rolling Valley Elementary 67.16
            Camelot Elementary 67.57
            Forest Edge Elementary 68.52
            Marshall Road Elementary 69.44
            Cub Run Elementary 69.77
            Beech Tree Elementary 70.77
            Lane Elementary 71.29
            Ravensworth Elementary 71.43
            Terraset Elementary 72.73
            Freedom Hill Elementary 72.88
            Little Run Elementary 73.08
            Fort Hunt Elementary 74.07
            Kings Park Elementary 74.31
            Greenbriar East Elementary 74.58
            Eagle View Elementary 75.36
            McNair Upper Elementary 75.47
            Westgate Elementary 76
            Laurel Hill Elementary 76.47
            West Springfield Elementary 77.11
            Hunters Woods Elementary School for the Arts and Sciences 77.55
            Franconia Elementary 78.31
            Hayfield Elementary 78.43
            Oakton Elementary 78.95
            Cardinal Forest Elementary 79.41
            White Oaks Elementary 79.61
            Stratford Landing Elementary 79.8
            Armstrong Elementary 80
            Centreville Elementary 80
            Bonnie Brae Elementary 81.25
            Sunrise Valley Elementary 81.61
            Greenbriar West Elementary 82.14
            Newington Forest Elementary 82.14
            Crossfield Elementary 82.43
            Laurel Ridge Elementary 82.95
            Mosaic Elementary 83.19
            Orange Hunt Elementary 83.22
            Columbia Elementary 83.33
            Union Mill Elementary 83.46
            Oak View Elementary 83.67
            Clermont Elementary 83.95
            Bush Hill Elementary 84
            Canterbury Woods Elementary 84.21
            Belvedere Elementary 84.4
            Fox Mill Elementary 84.52
            Powell Elementary 85.25
            Hunt Valley Elementary 86
            Island Creek Elementary 86.21
            Fairhill Elementary 86.3
            Mantua Elementary 86.33
            Wakefield Forest Elementary 86.41
            Stenwood Elementary 86.42
            Floris Elementary 86.54
            Springfield Estates Elementary 87.23
            Silverbrook Elementary 87.39
            Fairfax Villa Elementary 87.67
            Lees Corner Elementary 87.78
            Cherry Run Elementary 88.46
            Sherman Elementary 88.46
            Great Falls Elementary 88.71
            Forestville Elementary 89.29
            Willow Springs Elementary 89.33
            Terra Centre Elementary 89.41
            Waples Mill Elementary 89.74
            Flint Hill Elementary 89.77
            Keene Mill Elementary 89.84
            Oak Hill Elementary 90.43
            Aldrin Elementary 90.48
            Waynewood Elementary 90.63
            Lemon Road Elementary 90.79
            Fairview Elementary 91.82
            Kent Gardens Elementary 92.21
            Churchill Road Elementary 92.41
            Archer Elementary 92.47
            Spring Hill Elementary 92.52
            Chesterbrook Elementary 93.55
            Navy Elementary 93.8
            Colvin Run Elementary 94.07
            Vienna Elementary 94.44
            Westbriar Elementary 94.44
            Poplar Tree Elementary 94.51
            Haycock Elementary 94.55
            Wolftrap Elementary 96.2
            Sangster Elementary 98.61

          15. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            this is not unusual, here is Loudoun for Grade 3 Reading SOLs by school:

            Sully Elementary 37.93
            Guilford Elementary 44.05
            Meadowland Elementary 44.93
            Frances Hazel Reid Elementary 46.81
            Sugarland Elementary 47.83
            Rolling Ridge Elementary 50
            Frederick Douglass Elementary 51.61
            Forest Grove Elementary 53.13
            Banneker Elementary 57.14
            Potowmack Elementary 59.26
            Cool Spring Elementary 60.2
            Sterling Elementary 60.56
            Middleburg Community Charter 61.9
            Catoctin Elementary 66.67
            Arcola Elementary 66.9
            Round Hill Elementary 68.24
            Ball’s Bluff Elementary 69.86
            Countryside Elementary 69.91
            Discovery Elementary 71.19
            Mountain View Elementary 72.16
            Ashburn Elementary 72.73
            Steuart W. Weller Elementary 72.9
            Leesburg Elementary 73.33
            Dominion Trail Elementary 73.79
            Hutchison Farm Elementary 74.19
            Lovettsville Elementary 75
            Sycolin Creek Elementary 75.82
            Cardinal Ridge Elementary 76.64
            Waterford Elementary 76.67
            Algonkian Elementary 77.61
            Evergreen Mill Elementary 78.43
            Moorefield Station Elementary 78.68
            Seldens Landing Elementary 79.07
            Pinebrook Elementary 80.83
            Liberty Elementary 80.92
            Kenneth W.Culbert Elementary 81.18
            Cedar Lane Elementary 81.37
            Horizon Elementary 81.93
            Creighton’s Corner Elementary 82.11
            Belmont Station Elementary 82.61
            Hamilton Elementary 82.76
            Emerick Elementary 82.81
            Sanders Corner Elementary 83.08
            Lincoln Elementary 83.33
            Hovatter Elementary 83.42
            Newton-Lee Elementary 83.53
            John W. Tolbert Jr. Elementary 84.69
            Goshen Post Elementary 84.8
            Madison’s Trust Elementary 84.85
            Little River Elementary 84.95
            Buffalo Trail Elementary 86.33
            Waxpool Elementary 86.61
            Lucketts Elementary 86.67
            Lowes Island Elementary 87.34
            Legacy Elementary 90.77
            Hillside Elementary 91.3
            Mill Run Elementary 92.98
            Rosa Lee Carter Elementary 93.79
            Aldie Elementary 94.12
            Hillsboro Charter Academy 95.83

    2. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      I recall reading in the Free Lance Star that Fredericksburg had a significantly higher teen pregnancy rate than the surrounding counties.

      This was back in the 2000s.

  8. M. Purdy Avatar
    M. Purdy

    Obviously an unspoken subtext here is that Republican states are more welcoming and that people are “voting with their feet” to Republican states. Possible, esp. w/r/t to CA. But it may have very little to do with people acting out of changing political views, rather than a host of other economic factors. Remember, Republicans have lost the national vote in five of the six last presidential elections. The US population isn’t becoming more Republican, it’s just moving to states where the electoral college is more likely to skew a political outcomes. And the electoral colleges is a major reason that these shifts are important nationally. But if the Republican party’s hope or strategy is just to rely on the electoral college to eek popular vote-losing national wins, good luck with that over the long term.

    1. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      The Red states are getting more Blue due to Dems moving in to take over, and also the Red states are getting jobs from Dem’s electric vehicle mandates, so they are starting to appreciate and benefit from liberal logic.

    2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      The Red states are getting more Blue due to Dems moving in to take over, and also the Red states are getting jobs from Dem’s electric vehicle mandates, so they are starting to appreciate and benefit from liberal logic.

    3. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      The Red states are getting more Blue due to Dems moving in to take over, and also the Red states are getting jobs from Dem’s electric vehicle mandates, so they are starting to appreciate and benefit from liberal logic.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        right you are and I’m surprised that conservatives don’t see this as a nefarious plot.

      2. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        right you are and I’m surprised that conservatives don’t see this as a nefarious plot.

  9. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Here’s another way to look at population data in Virginia:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0b52ba5fcf0edc848019592ebcb67e30d506bdac4932c65c070551b2aefa817f.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea241543bc18f27335d2bcda3fc305cbeb9de426c0c3b47e65cf6fcdf65a4929.jpg

  10. Cranky Avatar
    Cranky

    Interesting piece. For the record, here is the entire Virginia list, sorted by decreasing 2021-22 percentage increase: https://crankytaxpayer.wordpress.com

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      A lot of these counties are in this band:

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7a9232dcb569c0d7cae6392a6c3527fdc4c7dbdab4bc3c67009517bdf3f0e33c.jpg

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/277ced23ff9695fde2550282ba5dd5e73f9edac93af4850083dff24bd99b63ef.jpg

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