Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

More Evidence for Peak Car

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

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The number of cars, vans, SUVs and light trucks on the road in the United States peaked in 2008 at 236.4 million, dipping as low as 230 million in the aftermath of the recession. That number will likely be surpassed as the population continues to grow, says Michael Sivak, in “Has Motorization in the U.S. Peaked?“, a report published by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute. But the growth in the number of cars is likely to be far slower in the future.

Other key measures — growth in the number of vehicles per household, per licensed driver and per person — all peaked before the recession, suggesting that something other than macro-economic forces are at work. “The recent maxima in these rates have better chances of being long-term peaks,” Sivak writes.

What’s going on? Sivak points to the increase in telecommuting, from 3.3% of all workers to 4.3% between 2000 and 2010, as well as an increase in the use of public transportation, from 4.7% of workers to 5.0% over a similar period of time. Also, licensed drivers are waiting until they are older before buying a car. Meanwhile, Baby Boomers are retiring in large numbers. Retirees, who no longer drive to work, have less need to own multiple cars.

Bacon’s bottom line: National trends will play out differently around the country, depending on regional variations in the population growth rate. Thus, rural areas that are leaking population probably will see a marked decline in the number of cars on the road, while fast-growth metro areas will continue to experience rising traffic volumes — though less than commonly assumed as recently as the mid-2000s.

— JAB

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3 responses to “More Evidence for Peak Car”

  1. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    Let’s not read too much into these statistics. The average licensed driver still owns more than one car on average. So, the reduction is eating away at multi-car people. One would expect this during an economic downturn.

    The demographic bubble of echo boomers are coming of age. How many people who turn 16 go out and buy a car? 17? 18?

    I suspect improving economic conditions and echo boomers entering the workforce will push car ownership back up.

    Jim’s point on regional differences is a good one. Last year, for the first year ever (I believe), rural America lost population in total. Low birth rates and rapid out-migration will reduce the number of cars in rural America. These factors will also make any attempt to tie road maintenance to road usage more and more unaffordable in rural America.

  2. TMT Avatar
    TMT

    I would love to have fewer cars. We have four – one for each family member. My wife and I each drive. My daughter will take her car back to Raleigh when starts her final year at N.C. State. My son will not have his car in Norfolk when he starts his freshman year at ODU, but things will probably change when he goes back in the late summer of 2014. I suppose that once they leave the nest for good, they will continue to have an automobile — hopefully paid for by them. 😉

  3. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    I’m a skeptic ….and a contrarian….by nature…

    We spend a lot of time on the road in the summer – crisscrossing the country and what while I have to admit, I’ve seen LESS acceleration of travel – it is by no means on the decline in most places – neither for work/commuting or other reasons.

    We just travelled on I-40 in NC around Greensboro, Winston-Salem and Asheville as well as I-64 in Va and I can tell you with absolutely hesitation that these roads are empty or sparse but instead full of idiots who block the left lane and idiots who then pass on the right and cut back in front.

    I-95 between Fredericksburg and Washington on week-days is “peak” for sure also.

    what I notice – is more people in the cars… i.e. car-sharing… but just as many cars – to the point where passing on the interstate is still an interesting endeavor given the left-lane-blockers who then motivate the pass-on-right-and-cut-back-to-left-lane folks. We don’t need no more.. if there are “less” in the future… that would be marvelous.

    we, as a country, have NEVER been taught to SHARE the road but instead treat it as if our current location on it – belongs to us no matter what we wish to do with it -even if it results in a 20-30 car backup behind us.

    Perfectly intelligent people who either hold a job that requires good judgement or retired from one that did – cannot apparently do anything but the most ignorant and stupid of behaviors when they get on a road with others.

    “collaborative driving” is not a term they are familiar with – at all.

    It makes me feel that if they can’t drive in a simple way on a highway that yes… we have a huge problem with them making choices about governance.

    so …NO… there is NO SHORTAGE of MORONS .. disguised as drivers on our highways these days! they are apparently breeding – and at a high rate!

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