Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

More Discouraging News for Virginia Student Test Scores

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James A. Bacon
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by James A. Bacon

As recently as 2015, the percentage of Virginia high school graduates qualifying for college credit on at least one Advanced Placement test ranked third in the nation. In the 2021-2022 school year, according to data released by the College Board, Virginia’s percentage had fallen to 11th in the country, slipping two notches from the previous year.

“Virginia’s 2021-2022 AP results are yet another sad reminder that when previous Administrations lowered expectations, Virginia’s children suffer,” said Secretary of Education Aimee Guidera in a press release. “The commonwealth must reverse the declines in the AP scores that have occurred over the last 10 years by restoring rigor and celebrating the achievements of our students.”

The College Board also reported that 25.2% of 2022 graduating Virginia seniors earned a score of three or higher on at least one AP test, down from 26.9% for 2021 graduates, and from 30% for 2014 grads.

The breakdown by racial/ethnic groups, according to the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) press release, was as follows:

  • Asian students: 53.7%.
  • American Indian students: 28.2%.
  • Black students: 8.5%.
  • Hispanic students: 20.0%.
  • White students: 27.1%.

VDOE did not indicate how much the pass rates declined for each group, so it is not clear if the racial achievement gap got better or worse since 2015.

A complicating factor in interpreting these numbers is the percentage of all high school seniors taking advanced placement exams. As a rule, when a larger percentage of students in a given state takes an AP exam, it means the state is digging deeper into its academic talent pool and the pass rate is likely to be lower. The VDOE press release did not indicate whether the percentage of Virginia test takers has increased or declined as a percentage of all seniors since 2015, or how that change compares to the percentage for other states.

Update: College Board data supplied to Bacon’s Rebellion by VDOE indicates that the percentage of Virginia high school students taking an AP exam declined from 43% in 2015 to 38.7% in 2021 to 38.0% in 2022. In other words, the decline in the pass rate coincided with a decline in the percentage of test takers. The fall-off in the pass rate cannot be attributed to a surge in lower-achieving students taking the exams.

Although Virginia’s relative standing compared to other states is declining, the AP pass rates for students in the Old Dominion still exceeds the national average. That’s of little consolation to the Youngkin administration, however, which has repeatedly emphasized that Virginia’s education system is heading in the wrong direction.

Guidera attributes the declining pass rates to declining educational standards and expectations in Virginia school districts. In the press release, she said she would work with the incoming superintendent of public instruction, Lisa Coons, to restore the performance of Virginia’s students in advanced courses. “We must raise the floor and the ceiling for Virginia’s students.”

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24 responses to “More Discouraging News for Virginia Student Test Scores”

  1. kls Avatar
    kls

    With the renaming of Fort Pickett and other USMIL bases in the state I feel confident the test scores and reading and math competencies of 4th and 8th graders of color will skyrocket within the next year!!!!!!!!! WOKEism at work will delivery our children.

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      Better to be named after a Medal of Honor winner than for a general best known for a disastrous military operation.

      1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
        James C. Sherlock

        Certainly the most important issue in U.S. public policy.

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          We can walk and chew gum simultaneously. Well, progressives can. It’s part of the definition.

        2. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          We can walk and chew gum simultaneously. Well, progressives can. It’s part of the definition.

      2. WayneS Avatar
        WayneS

        A fair point.

      3. oromae Avatar
        oromae

        You mean the military operation consisting of an entire division of Virginians synonymous with extraordinary valor and sacrifice.

      4. Matt Adams Avatar
        Matt Adams

        “Dick Hall-Sizemore kls 14 hours ago
        Better to be named after a Medal of Honor winner than for a general best known for a disastrous military operation.”

        You could believe that however, if you were to ever visit the installation. You’d find WWII barracks with free standing toilets (no stalls) and infestation of stink bugs and ticks. As it stands, it’s a rather dilapidated installation. This being is in line with a host of other ARNG Military installations that blot the map, consisting of forgotten hastily made WWII training facilities.

    2. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      I could care less about the name, the soldiers will always refer to them as they were. Considering Pickett is only used by the 19th Group for SFAS training and ARNG forces for all else, it doesn’t much matter.

      What should be considered is the fact that it’s already doubled the price tag to rename 9 installations. It stands at $39 million dollars to change those names.

      It’s not as simple as the placard outside the entrance to post, all the street names follow that naming convention. You have maps, you have mailing addresses, you have forms, letterheads, building placards and whole host of other items that people don’t generally think about.

      Will this renaming close the wounds or will it they just move onto the next target.

  2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    I am pleased that you pointed out the “complicating factor” of not knowing whether the percentage of all students taking the AP tests has increased. Apparently, that important nuance escaped our esteemed Secretary of Education or she chose to ignore it for political reasons.

    By the way, has the percentage qualifying for college credit on at least one test actually declined? That chart shows that the state has slipped in comparison to other states, but not whether there has been an absolute decline.

    1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      Not everything is relative. This is one of those things.

      The futures of students across the nation were damaged by public school shutdowns. Period.

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Nice attack on Dick. He beat me to his point but if you don’t know if a larger percentage of the student population took the test, you have only half the data you need to asses if there is a true decline. It is not just a “complicating factor”. And you did not answer Dick’s other question. Has there been an absolute decline or relative decline? Both solid questions. Dick deserved a better response than what he got.

  3. VaPragamtist Avatar
    VaPragamtist

    I have a feeling the Secretary may be cherry picking data.

    When we say things like “25.2% of 2022 graduating Virginia seniors earned a score of three or higher on at least one AP test, down from 26.9% for 2021 graduates, and from 30% for 2014 grads”, we also have to ask, what might be some other factors?

    One explanation might be that students are taking tests but not doing as well, or not even trying to take AP tests. . .which is what I think the Secretary is implying.

    But another explanation is that students are pursuing different options. . .Dual Enrollment, for example.

    According to a 2022 JLARC study, “State law requires school divisions to offer dual enrollment. Most dual enrollment courses are taught at high schools by high school teachers. Dual enroll participation increased 54 percent between the 2012–13 academic year and 2021–22. Dual enrollment students as a proportion of total community college enrollment has grown from 13 percent in 2012 to 28 percent in 2021.”

    Just glancing at the raw data the governor’s office used, it seems that there’s a gradual decline in AP enrollment as DE increases.

    So an alternative explanation: the percent of students earning a three or higher on an AP test is decreasing because the number of students taking AP tests is decreasing, as students are opting for DE courses instead.

    1. VaPragamtist Avatar
      VaPragamtist

      Just as interesting:

      In 2020-21 89,820 students took 1 or more AP course, with only 41% (52,590) attempting one or more AP exam.

      2021-22 saw 7.8% fewer students taking one or more AP courses (82,756), but 17% more attempting one or more exam (61,568).

      To put it another way, in 2020-21 only 58% of students in AP courses bothered to try the exam; but in 2021-22 74% have attempted.

    2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      The question is: can we explain the shift in scores. I don’t think Ffx County today is the same demographics as Year 2000. Now approaching 45% or more of households English is not the spoken language.

  4. M. Purdy Avatar
    M. Purdy

    Where did Tennessee rank, the state from which our new Ed. Supe. hails from?

  5. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Hey! Still in the top half, and by a goodly measure.

    Of course, it’s discouraging. But, maybe they were bummed out by the attempts of the Republicans to suppress their votes when they went off to college and the drop was just part of that whole “trickle down” effect.

    Fastest way to drop performance is to show people you don’t value them.

    Hey speaking of depressing information… Has anyone heard about the GPGP? Well, here it is.
    “Key facts about the Great Pacific Garbage Patch

    The GPGP is two collections of debris floating between Japan and the USA

    Most of the GPGP is made up of plastic

    Garbage patches around the world settle in calm sections at the centre of ocean gyres

    The GPGP is estimated to weigh 80,000 tonnes and contain 1.8 trillion pieces of plastic”

    Disproves the child’s observation about the ocean, “It just keeps flushing and flushing…”. An American Stardard it ain’t. Or is it?

    1. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      Remember, kids, that trash you throw into a ditch on a Virginia roadside because mommy and daddy never taught you what a trash can is for, eventually ends up in the ocean!

      Kids who litter grow up to become adults who litter.

    2. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      Remember, kids, that trash you throw into a ditch on a Virginia roadside because mommy and daddy never taught you what a trash can is for, eventually ends up in the ocean!

      Kids who litter grow up to become adults who litter.

  6. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    There is a lot of mythology around standardized tests. I believe that some of that mythology is intentionally put forth. Take the ACT / SAT standardized tests. Many colleges and universities have made those tests optional. Some colleges and universities (in California, in particular) will not consider those tests even if taken voluntarily and submitted with the application. One reason put forth is that the tests are inherently unfair since wealthier kids’ parents can afford tutoring and, therefore, get higher scores. here are two fallacies with this logic:

    1. The point about paid tutoring could be made with regard to high school classes rendering GPA unfair.
    2. The best test prep (for the SAT, at least) is provided by Khan Academy and it is completely free.

    I personally suspect that the optionality / elimination of these standardized tests is an attempt to allow college admissions personnel to pick and choose students without a clear measure of merit. GPAs provide limited differentiation as they seem to have been inflated no end by our education bureaucracy. At the University of Virginia, for example, the average GPA is a 4.32. In other words, the AVERAGE entering student essentially got straight As throughout high school. Given that UVa is only tied for #25 best college and university in America, a whole lot of students are not differentiated by their GPAs.

    https://www.prepscholar.com/sat/s/colleges/UVA-admission-requirements#:~:text=Average%20GPA%3A%204.32&text=With%20a%20GPA%20of%204.32,to%20compete%20with%20other%20applicants.

    1. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      My Honors Problems on Democracy (POD) teacher famously would say, “it’s time to show what you don’t know”. Which is exactly what multiple choice tests show, not what you do know.

  7. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    I’ve added this update to the post. — JAB

    Update: College Board data supplied to Bacon’s Rebellion by VDOE indicates that the percentage of Virginia high school students taking an AP exam declined from 43% in 2015 to 38.7% in 2021 to 38.0% in 2022. In other words, the decline in the pass rate coincided with a decline in the percentage of test takers. The fall-off in the pass rate cannot be attributed to a surge in lower-achieving students taking the exams.

    Here’s the comprehensive data that College Board supplied to the Virginia Department of Education: https://www.baconsrebellion.com/app/uploads/2023/04/AP-Cohort-State-Report_VA.pdf

    1. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      The reverse argument seems likely to apply.

      As the percentage of students taking an AP exam falls, it is likely that comes from lower achieving students not taking the exam. That would increase the percentage of successful exam takers.

      With a constant percentage of test takers the Virginia average would likely have fallen even more than it has.

  8. Bubba1855 Avatar
    Bubba1855

    I’m sorry folks but these AP numbers are so subject to various changes in the environment that I can’t really rely on them as any indicator of VA’s high school achievements. Let me list, in no particular order/priority. Covid, colleges not requiring SAT/ACT test scores, students not getting class credit for AP scores 3 or better for the colleges they want to apply to and others. My daughter (who went to a rural South Carolina high school) 20 years ago took the English AP tests and scored 3 and 4. But…yes, but…she wanted to get a BS degree (I, her dad, has a BS STEM degree). So she got credit towards graduation for several liberal arts requirements at the C of C.
    So much has changed regarding the metrics of SAT/ACT testing and scores that I think we need to ‘relax’ and back off…the world has changed…lets get on with it.
    Bubba

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