Chesterfield County is the last place on the planet you’d expect to see commuter rail. Characterized by scattered, disconnected, low-density development and communities designed around the movement of automobiles, Richmond’s southern suburb epitomizes the autocentric society that destroyed mass transit in the 20th century.
Ironically, Chesterfield enjoyed a vibrant commuter rail scene at the turn of the 20th century — before local government mandated “suburban” style zoning and state government began subsidizing leapfrog development. Some 100 years after commuter rail’s hey-day, developers are trying to revive the idea. Two large planned communities, Roseland and Watkins Centre, would like to see commuter rail running along an underutilized Norfolk Southern railway track from downtown Richmond out to their projects near the Rt. 288 circumferential highway.
The Richmond Metropolitan Planning Organization sketched the outlines of Midlothian commuter rail project in a 2003 study, which should be updated this fall. But the study was none too optimistic: An up-front capital investment of $81 million plus ongoing operating deficit of $1 million annually would take only 170 passengers per workday off the roads. Not a very good return on investment. Judged by the study’s ridership metrics, Midlothian commuter rail is a poor candidate for state and federal funding.
But, as I outline in today’s column, “Midlothian Leviathan,” there may be a way to establish commuter rail as a profit-driven enterprise. Readers of this blog will find the key concepts familiar: (1) Set up Community Development Authorities around the rail stations, (2) pay for the capital improvements by issuing CDA bonds, (3) pay back the bonds through tax-increment financing on property owners in the CDA, (4) overlay the CDA districts with Transit Oriented Development districts, (5) incentivize property owners to re-develop their properties by increasing densities around the stations, and (6) require developers to set up Transportation Demand Management programs to mitigate the impact of localized congestion on nearby residential neighborhoods.
Under the Bacon schema, Midlothian commuter rail would require no government funding whatsoever. It would require no government coercion, no exercise of eminent domain to strong-arm anyone into participating. It would put into place measures to offset negative impacts on neighbors. And the rail line would fly, so to speak, only if it constituted a win-win-win for Chesterfield County, the City of Richmond, property owners, neighbors and commuters.
Sound like a tall order? You bet. I fully acknowledge that I may have set the bar so high that the project would never work. But I lay out a developer-driven strategy that has never been tried before, at least not in Virginia, and not in recent history. Please check it out and point out any flaws you might see — or any possibilities that I might have overlooked.