Mass Transit and Flying Machines

Anderson Cooper in a personal flying machine.

Real rebound or just a dead cat bounce? After bottoming out at around 21,500 riders a year ago, the Virginia Railway Express commuter rail service in Northern Virginia is experiencing a recovery in ridership, reports The Free Lance-Star. In February, VRE reports, monthly rider trips totaled more than 52,900. That’s a far cry from the previous, pre-COVID February ridership of 355,000, but it’s something. The decision by a federal judge in Florida to throw out the national mask mandate for public transportation might help revive ridership a bit more.

Yet… the latest numbers suggest that former VRE riders are NOT taking about 300,000 trips monthly that they had been before the pandemic. Some are likely working at home, but some may be adding to congestion along I-95. Virginia has invested in the rail infrastructure, so, it’s a shame if people aren’t using it. On the other hand…

Self-driving cars and flying cars. The Virginia Mercury reminds us that Sheppard Miller, Virginia’s Secretary of Transportation, thinks flying cars could be a reality within the next 50 years — a reason that the Commonwealth should “reexamine transit.” People have been fantasizing about flying cars for a hundred years now, and we have yet to see anything remotely practical. But a wave of venture-funded innovation is giving rise to what might better be described as personal flying machines. They’re not cars with four wheels and wings; they’re battery-powered, drone-like craft that can lift off from parking lots and the tops of buildings. On Sunday, 60 Minutes broadcast a clip of Anderson Cooper flying (seen above) in one such device.

On a more prosaic note, the Mercury discusses the rise of autonomous vehicles of the earthbound variety, such as Fairfax County’s Relay electric shuttle, which seats up to six passengers and patrols a one-mile route between the Dunn Loring Metro Station and the Mosaic District at 10 miles per hour. Autonomous ground vehicles raise a vast array of issues — they have been known to run red lights, swerve toward concrete barriers and even kill pedestrians. The artificial intelligence still needs work, and legal liability issues need to be hammered out.

The Fairfax experiment with the Relay sees autonomous vehicles (AVs) as potential feeders into the Washington Metro — cheaper than taxis, Ubers, or shuttles because they require no drivers. In this vision, self-driving vehicles can be a transit savior.

But others see the AVs as a pipe dream. “Public money should go where it serves the public interest with equity and cost efficiency in mind, and I don’t think this shuttle meets that standard,” Peter Norton, author of “Autonorama: The Illusory Promise of High-Tech Driving,” told the Mercury. “The real future is in far more cost effective things like bike lanes and bus-only lanes. How many nice bus shelters could Fairfax County have got for $520,000?”

As a curmudgeon, I don’t find myself delighted by the prospect of “Flying Under the Influence” and propellered contraptions dropping out of the sky becoming a daily part of our lives.

On the other hand, if you watch the 60 Minutes clip, you will be awestruck by the creativity and innovation in engineering and design of the flying machines. With the tech sector throwing billions of dollars in autonomous vehicles of all stripes and varieties, I’m betting they’re going to become a reality. I’m with Miller: it makes sense to think just as creatively about Virginia’s transportation future. It may make sense to maintain investments in infrastructure we’ve already built. But we would be foolish not to consider how we might benefit from adopting outlandish new technology.

— JAB


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24 responses to “Mass Transit and Flying Machines”

  1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    So, let’s see if I have this right. On the one hand, you caution against investing in new transportation infrastructure because new technology is going to come along and make it obsolete. On the other hand, you caution against pushing for zero-carbon emissions by 2035 or 2050 because the battery technology is not yet available to provide sufficient storage. In the first instance, you are betting on “creativity and innovation in engineering ” and, in the second instance, you don’t have faith in “creativity and innovation in engineering.” In some places, that is called having your cake and eating it, too.

    1. Well played, sir.

    2. Here’s what I wrote: “We would be foolish not to consider how we might benefit from adopting outlandish new technology.”

      If you want to apply that to climate change and Virginia energy policy, I would say the same thing — “We would be foolish not to consider how we might benefit from adopting outlandish new technology — battery storage, hydrogen combustion, mini-nukes, and the like.

      Here’s the difference, we are re-engineering our electric grid on that expectation. We are not re-engineering our transportation system.

      It’s one thing to start thinking about the impact that new technology will have and quite another to charge ahead on the expectation that it will come to fruition in time to make everything work out.

    3. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      yep. It’s a “theme” depending on the pro-con of something… 😉

    4. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      I think it’s more like “picking your poison and making others drink it.” Just an observation.

  2. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    the innovators on 60 minutes made clear that there will not be personal flying machines. They are thinking “uber”.

    The whole idea given the way yahoos are on the roads today is a non-starter IMHO… oh and add guns and “air-rage” to boot!

    nope. nope. nope.

    electric cars if gas goes to $6 , yep.

    wind/solar if natural gas doubles in price. in a heartbeat – fricassee birds and all.. maybe even approach the number of birds already killed by cars, windows, and cats!

    all in favor of wind/solar/ storage, mini-nukes and hydrogen.

    an optimistic view of the way ahead…

  3. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Isn’t that “sweet dreams and flying machines”?

    Detroit builds first EV charging highway…

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      alt-fuel cars. Run on electric or gas, choose what you need depending on your need.

  4. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    Build more roads. Widen the existing roads. Build more overpasses that eliminate the need for stoplights.

    Dick is right, the same people who say that vastly improved battery technology needs to happen before zero carbon electricity becomes widespread also need to admit that autonomous and flying cars have to become widely accepted before we stop building roads and bridges.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      more roads open up more land for development. New roads that offer less congestion – draw more traffic.

      more roads does no solve the congestion problem it actually increases it.

      Not to mention the costs which no one wants to pay – either taxes or tolls.

      or the fact that no one wants a new road going through their neighborhood.

      the days of new urban freeways is largely over.

      Nova has it’s own MPO – transportation authority and they keep a list of planned projects for the next 25 years.

      Page 18 shows the major projects planned:

      this is the reality – what’s actually going to happen:

      https://www.mwcog.org/file.aspx?D=CKskRNgY7xXXfhY21wnjg5ZxD9pihXLti5JjrZdzRBA%3d&A=ytF6b9Aq8nMt5uR%2fG6fvTMGpfpEWfpLHlPSz2PgFEvg%3d

      1. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        Larry, there is no alternative to roads in Northern Virginia. Not today. Not for some time to come. The greenies have their failed theories of mass transit which works if there is enough density and enough subway stops to walk to a stop and then walk to your job / shopping. The conservatives talk about reducing taxes through multi-use development which works until you change your job.

        The days of new urban freeways are not largely over. Look at the widening of Rt 66 or the expansion of Rt 7.

        Until NoVa has the population density of, say, Chicago – roads will the the main answer to transportation problems.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          but you’ve reached the end of feasibility – fiscal and physical.

          When I say the end of “new’, I mean new location. We’ll continue to widen and maybe do some new connectors but you’re just not going to get significant new region-wide capacity – I don’t think.

          New York and Chicago came to be before interstates and beltways.

          I’m not sure current places like NoVa will reach density the same way.

          Right now, people like driving – a LOT.

          They will drive 20 miles to get a pizza or even further to shop or play golf, etc… it does not faze them at all even at $4 a gallon.

          What stops or slows them down is busy-times congestion but road widenings are not going to fix that – just move the choke points to different locations. When you get off the interstate, you’re back in it big time.

          The only thing that affects this is tolls that are keyed to congestion levels and those tolls keep the congestion levels to levels where those willing to pay can still get around and those who can’t or won’t – defer their trips to less busy times or carpool or take transit.

          Almost everyone hates tolls with a passion but they work and nothing else does.

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Pave the Bay?

  5. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    “You! You’ve ruined my planet! Take THAT!”
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=owJHc61NuFM

  6. It has been argued that we need autonomous ground vehicles because the driving skills of the average motorist are not very good, and computers can do it better.

    Why, then, would it be a good idea to put these same people in “personal flying machines”? If someone can’t even properly control a vehicle which moves in two-dimensional space (x and y), it would be illogical and dangerous to encourage them to switch to a vehicle which adds a ‘z’ coordinate to its directional capabilities…

    1. I shared your concern (as I noted in the column). Clearly, flying machines are not close to prime time. A huge amount of work needs to be done, and it could take decades. But it is prudent to think about what it would take to accommodate them safely.

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      For a fixed number of objects, adding the 3rd dimension should decrease the probability of impact… but does add that additional excitement of two bumps.

      1. But the number of objects is not fixed. Adding a third dimension increases the number of objects which might cause the first ‘bump’, including high tension wires, treetops, cell phone towers, and, of course, other “personal flying machines” operated by other people who can’t properly control a vehicle in two dimensions. Not to mention Amazon drones….

        🙂

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Subaru to the rescue…

    3. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      My Subarus have EyeSight, a level 2 autopilot. If I set the cruise control and lane hold, it just buzzes along all by it’s little lone. If it runs up on a slower car, it slows down and maintains distance. If the road curves, the car follows it. If a car cuts in front of me, it will apply brakes if necessary. If the car in front of me changes out of the lane, it speeds up to latch on to the next car.

      If I try to change lanes without signaling, it won’t let me.

      I hate it. I don’t think I’ve used it more than 1/2 dozen times, and only to “take a break”, or open a botlle or something like that.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        a whole new cottage industry is going to spring up as control of the car is wrestled away from the driver!

      2. I think such things take all the fun out of driving.

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          I keep what I can turned off. The automatic brakes did keep me from backing over some girl who decided standing in my blind spot was a good idea.

  7. You ask, “How many nice bus shelters could Fairfax County have got for $520,000?“. I believe the answer (in adjacent Arlington County at least) is: 1/2 a shelter. They cost $1 million apiece in Arlington.

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