Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Marriage, Children and the Millennials’ Preference for City Life

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

Sex and the single girl syndrome?
Sex and the single girl syndrome?

by James A. Bacon

How long will the return-to-the-cities movement of the Millennial generation last?

Smart Growthers think that a fundamental lifestyle shift is occurring. Millennials are different: They are the smart-phone generation, the shared-ownership generation. As long as they can readily access a car when they need one through Zipcar or a peer-sharing service, they’re happy to walk, bike or ride mass transit most of the time. Skeptics contend that Millennials are the same as previous generations. As soon as they marry and have kids, they’ll start moving to single-family houses in the ‘burbs and buy cars just like everybody else.

Cheryl Russell, editor of the American Consumers Newsletter, adds a perspective I haven’t seen before. She argues that the hardships created by Great Recession and its aftermath have delayed marriage and reduced childbearing among Millennials. As a consequence, Millennials are inclined to live in urban core jurisdictions longer than they would have otherwise. Writes she:

The Great Recession idled millions of millennials, causing them to postpone marriage and childbearing. Without the nuclear family motive for moving to the suburbs, young adults are staying put in urban centers and boosting city populations. Between 2010 and 2012, the nation’s largest cities (with populations of 50,000 or more) grew 2.1 percent, nearly double the 1.1 percent growth everywhere else. Cities may be growing not so much because they are attracting young adults, but because they are no longer losing young families to the suburbs.

Russell cites the following data:

  • The  median age at first marriage is at a record high (29 for men; 27 for women).
  • The fertility rate is at a record low (62.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44).
  • The number of nuclear families (married couples with children under age 18) headed by young adults fell by more than 1 million between 2007 and 2013. Nuclear families now account for only 24 percent of households headed by people under age 35.

What happens if the economy picks up and traditional marriage and child-bearing patterns reassert themselves? Will the Millennials then move to the burbs? There’s no way to know for sure but Russell is skeptical.

The biggest problem is student loan debt, shifting the age of first-time home buying from the early to the late thirties. Only 37 percent of householders under age 35 are homeowners, the lowest rate on record for the age group. By the time they can afford to buy a home, younger generations will be accustomed to city life and may not be willing to trade urban amenities for suburban sprawl.

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10 responses to “Marriage, Children and the Millennials’ Preference for City Life”

  1. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    I would not disagree with Ms. Russell’s analysis and I would add one more.

    When you go shopping on weekdays – what do you see?

    you see Grandmom with child. Where is Mom? At work… where does Mom live? either with or near to Grandmom.

    the recession and student loan debt are causing some to defer having children but others with handy “grandmom” resources are charging ahead!

    😉

  2. TMT Avatar
    TMT

    The world changes once there are school-aged children. Parents will either pay tuition at private schools or move to neighborhoods with an esteemed elementary school. This applies irrespective of race, national origin, politics, etc., unless the parent(s) is/are living without regard to the welfare of the child. Dopers don’t really care, but damn near everyone else does. The ability to walk to the corner to get a coffee will take second place to what helps the kid get a good start.

    1. larryg Avatar
      larryg

      re: ” The world changes once there are school-aged children. Parents will either pay tuition at private schools or move to neighborhoods with an esteemed elementary school.”

      what determines whether a school is “good” or not so good in a place like NoVa or Arlington Smart Growth?

      I’d say it’s the type of neighborhood that surrounds a neighborhood school

      and if you cannot afford to live anywhere in NoVa/Arlington except in the less affluent neighborhoods.. schools are going to be a concern – to the point where you might get convinced to move to the exurbs – to a place where you can afford the home and the home is in a “good” neighborhood with a “good” school.. it’s what they want and its worth the commute.

      I would assert that the cost of housing in NoVA correlates with the type of neighborhood school and that school is as important as the single family house in a subdivision.

      I think that’s one of the flaws of the Smart Growth advocacy in that they advocate for something without so much trying to better understand the forces that drive the exurb demand.

      moms/dads move to exurbs when they retire also.

      1. TMT Avatar
        TMT

        Well stated. I think school reputation and test scores are more important than neighborhoods though. Active parents also put pressure on schools to achieve and maintain results.

        One of the problems generated from this is people falsifying information to get their kids in schools outside their neighborhood. This leads to more school overcrowding and, in FCPS, a growing backlash against loose enforcement of residency requirements.

        1. larryg Avatar
          larryg

          I notice one of the things that real estate folks do when they list houses is that they also list the schools for that house – so it does influence at least some buyers if that neighborhood school is not so hot.

          Not all schools in NoVa are top notch schools.

          here’s an example of what people are doing now in making decisions about where to live:

          http://fairfax.homebyschool.com/how-to-rank-fairfax-county-schools/

          I think Smart Growth “fails” if the schools in a particular neighborhood are not particularly good.. people don’t want to live there if they have kids and much of NoVa is now sorted out by the cost of housing.. and in the more affordable areas – if the schools are not good – mom/dad are going to look for better alternatives – and if there are no good ones – they’ll commute to the exurbs.

          I think the Smart Growth folks miss this aspect along with safety… of neighborhoods..

          People might tolerate less than wonderful home situations but they won’t live where it’s not safe or schools or bad.

          Smart Growth seems to presume that it’s all nirvana.. but it’s not.

          the living conditions greatly affect people’s decisions in where they will live or not.

  3. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    grandmoms and grandads..that is who then make it easier for son/daughter to follow to live near grandparents.. who will do child care and help with house because it’s much more affordable in the exurbs than Nova and schools generally good across the county, i.e. no “bad neighborhood” schools.

    I think Ms. Russell is on to something – but there are other forces involved also.

    We have folks who retire from NoVa to the Fredericksburg Area – to get out of the traffic rat-race and to sell their NoVa house for twice what an equivalent replacement costs in the exurbs.

    That leaves grandparents with extra financial resources to help their kids..

    that in turn provides more opportunities for millennials contemplating marriage and children.

    these are things that are not going to be easily changed and this is why I think the I-95 HOT Lanes are going to be a huge success.

  4. Peter Galuszka Avatar
    Peter Galuszka

    I think the analysis is right for several reasons. First, the jobs that people of my boomer generation enjoyed are not there. Secondly, the kind of jobs that required people to move around are definitely not there. I joined a New York-based company with global reach in 1983 and moved to major cities five times over the next 18 years. The job eventually paid very well and besides the 401 (k) still has the traditional, old-style pension/annuity.

    Not for my children, however.

  5. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    both IRAs and health care need to be portable in the 21st century. It’s better than the parents situation in some significant ways.

    first and foremost, you are no longer required to stay a a job you hate because you are locked in to the benefits …

    you are free to move to go after what opportunities best suit you – and employers are going to figure out if not right away .. that once people are
    no longer job-locked – the employer will develop a “reputation” on social media as a desirable (or not) place to work and while people might take a job there – if its not a good place, they’ll be looking for better.

    I think this is going to become a major force just as potent as the others to also include the ability to perform work in myriad locations besides the physical site of the company.

    And these forces will likely also affetct lifestyle choices, marriage, kids, and settlement patterns – in ways that we do not even conceive of yet.

    and I still think the Achilles heel of Smart Growth is safety and security for people.

    People are not going to willingly live in an area – no matter the type of housing where they fear for their safety and they are not going to send their kids to schools where their kids are not safe and the school sucks at academic performance to boot.

    It has nothing to do specifically with Smart Growth.. there are such un-safe places in the exurbs also…

    but we have to find a way in urbanized places to weaken the nexus between affluent housing and safety/security. When affluence is the only practical way to find a safe place to live – it’s a “fail”.

    1. TMT Avatar
      TMT

      I’ve argued public schools need to make their retirement systems more flexible and portable. This could help attract people who would like to teach for part of their careers.

      1. larryg Avatar
        larryg

        people become teachers to get health care for their families.

        simple as that for a lot of them.

        it’s one of the last professions where you can have an entire career at one place.

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