Bacon's Rebellion

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Map of the Day: Impact of Conservation Easements

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by

James A. Bacon
in ,

2006 population distribution, Beltway to Winchester.
2006 population distribution, Beltway to Winchester.

Luke Juday is using his mapping tools over at the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Policy to project what Virginia’s population distribution could look like 25 years from now and 50 years from now. You can see those maps here. We’ve re-published many of his maps here at Bacon’s Rebellion, so you may find them familiar. But Juday is always tweaking, and always looking for more geographic databases to play with, and he has done something really new: He shows how conservation easements in Loudoun and Fauquier counties could shape Northern Virginia’s growth trajectory over the next half century.

Beltway to Winchester 50 years from now -- conservation easements in blue.
Beltway to Winchester 50 years from now — conservation easements in blue.

As Juday writes, “Conservation easements matter”… at least when they achieve critical mass, as they have done in the Middleburg-Upperville hunt country area. The easements could play a major role in blocking the western advance of the Washington metropolitan region, forcing development south toward Fredericksburg.

Please note that Juday does not describe these maps as a “forecast” or “projection.” Rather, they are a visualization of how population would be distributed if (a) Weldon Cooper’s planning district-level population projects prove accurate, (b) no “game-changer” roads are built such as the Prince William Bi-County Parkway and (c) regions develop at their current level of density. The visualizations ignore zoning, which is too complex to include in his mapping routine, and it does not reflect the very real possibility that Americans (and Virginians) are driving less, with the implication that trend would have for greater urban density and infill. Finally, I would add, the map doesn’t consider the likelihood that northern Piedmont landowners will continue to place land in conservation easements, meaning that the swaths of blue will get even thicker and more formidable.

Even with all those caveats, the visualization shows how, over a long period of time, conservation easements could become as important as rivers, bays and Interstate highways in shaping Northern Virginia’s future.

— JAB

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4 responses to “Map of the Day: Impact of Conservation Easements”

  1. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    I would continue to compliment Luke for his skill and creativeness and agree with Bacon – some interesting and valuable insights are gained.

    how about a map showing density? (have we seen that)?

    Lukes skills and capabilities might prove invaluable at the Cooper Center and in turn Virginia’s planning districts. Kudos!

  2. mbaldwin Avatar
    mbaldwin

    These are terrific maps and useful projections despite obvious uncertainties. I happen to have one of those small blue dots in northern Loudoun. Zoning in thee parts will curb little of that creeping red, given by-right housing and liberal “clustering,” and vultnerability to development is costly: it vastly increases taxes for schools and public services and reduces landscape and cultural resources that induce increasing tourist and other revenue. But the big farms for hay, corn, livestock are owned and/or operated by older farmers whose sons and daughters will generally prefer development over farming. Conservation easements remain the most cost-effective remedy, but we cannot assume that their tax incentives will prevail over development revenue alternatives. Allowing rural business enterprise on conservation easements is critical, which some disdain. But they (like weddings, etc.) bring in local revenue ($5 for local restaurants, B&Bs, flower growers, etc. for every $1 in wedding venue revenue., plus tax revenue to the county) and they meet needs that suburbanites much appreciate.

    Thanks for this entry.

    1. davidperry Avatar
      davidperry

      mbaldwin: “Allowing rural business enterprise on conservation easements is critical, which some disdain. But they (like weddings, etc.) bring in local revenue ($5 for local restaurants, B&Bs, flower growers, etc. for every $1 in wedding venue revenue., plus tax revenue to the county) and they meet needs that suburbanites much appreciate. ”

      Yes! Assuming that farmers can make a living from traditional means is an antiquated notion when the goal of US food production is to make it as cheap as possible for the consumer and as lucrative as possible to the food processors, not the farmers. Agritourism activities like those you describe should not only be allowed by the big conservation players in the state, but specifically encouraged.

  3. NewVirginia Avatar
    NewVirginia

    Thanks again Jim. I said “conservation easements matter” because that was about the only way I could put it – they clearly have an effect. I don’t know exactly how they ought to be used, though.

    On the one hand, one could make an argument that a liberal sprinkling of them around the outskirts only serves to make sprawl worse by watering down the ability of the city to grow densely. I have also heard arguments that they preserve a certain way of life for an elite few near the city.

    On the other hand, it may be good to have greenbelts and contiguous wilderness close to the center of the city. It gives city-dwellers access to nature and arguably increases their “tolerance” for density by keeping the quality of life high. Manhattan probably couldn’t be what it is today without Central Park. Others argue that well-placed easements on the periphery that form coherent bunches can help to keep development from spreading out. Fairfax County has been proactive about creating contiguous parks and wildlife areas to give some definition to the sprawl.

    Most conservation folks are concerned with creating large blocks of contiguous easements near the edge of cities and that seems to make sense to me, but I need to learn more about it.

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