Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

The Malthusian Tendency

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by

James A. Bacon
in

For those who believe our unsustainable civilization’s collapse ought to happen in 3…2…1…now, Reason’s Ron Bailey peeks out of the survival bunker and decides, hey, we’re not so bad off after all:

The Malthusian meme always insists “things just can’t go on like this.” Of course, if “things can’t go on like this,” then they don’t. Humanity changes course and things get better. At least that has been the story of the last two centuries and the evidence is that it will be the story of the 21st century as well.

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  1. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “….the amount of stuff consumed in the European Union 15 was essentially flat while their economies grew by 50 percent. “

    Huh? Howzat? If they didn’t buy stuff, how did the economy grow? Where did the money go? More nail salons and backrubs?

    Oh, that’s right, it’s Europe – much of it went for taxes.

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Or, look at it another way.

    It now costs them 50% more to be able to afford the same amount of stuff.

  3. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Norm, You’re absolutely right. When resource constraints occur, societies often muddle through by adapting. I am confident that the United States will do so, too.

    But I fear that we will be slow in adapting, and that we will suffer far more pain than necessary.

    It is instructive to read Jared Diamond’s book, “Collapse.” Not all societies succeed in adapting. I found it particularly instructive when Diamond compared the fates of the two countries on the island of Hispanola — Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Haiti is the poster child for self-inflicted environmental degradation. The Dominican Republican (starting under the much-maligned dictator Trujillo) has moved much more aggressively to protect its environment. Apparentlly the results are visible to the naked eye from a high altitude — total deforestation on one side of the boundary, viable rain forests on the other. A collapsing economy on one side, a growing Third World economy on the other.

    The key is: We have to understand what’s happening and then actually *do something.* The fact that most societies have adapted in the past is no justification for sitting on our thumbs.

    I’m not worried about free markets adapting. Oil prices will go up, and people will conserve. But I’m very worried that our system of transportation and land use, which responds to political signals more than market signals, may not adapt. The result, as I say, will be much unnecessary harm.

    P.S. In reference to our conversation the other evening, I am *not* a socialist!! The land use system we have now is semi-socialist. Government efforts to regulate growth and development go to the root of our dysfunctional human settlement patterns. One day you will come to understand that I seek to unleash the power of free markets!!

  4. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Mr: Leahy:

    I agree with Mr. Bacon but want to add one note re the quote:

    “The Malthusian meme always insists “things just can’t go on like this.” Of course, if “things can’t go on like this,” then they don’t. Humanity changes course and things get better.

    “At least that has been the story of the last two centuries”

    For the last two centuries that is more or less true but it has not been all that rosey for a lot of folks in Europe and the Middle East of the Jewish persuasion, Half of those of the Muslium persuasion, the majority in Cambodia, and Burma, most in (on)the Horn of Africa, the rest of Aftrics, Many in South America,….

    A few at the top of the economic food chain have really done well but, especailly in the past 20 years…

    The important thing to keep in mind is that same quote could be found by some Roman think tank talking-head in the thrid century AD.

    Citizens of the US of A and the First World are now at such a tipping point now. Unless there is Fundamental Change there may not be any surviving record of these rosey Business-As-Usual bromides from Reason, Cato, Heritage, et. al. a thousand years from now. (The Black Death that turned things around came a thousand years after the Roman taking head that sounds just like Reason, Cato, Heritage, etc.) See THE ESTATES MATRIX and the evolution of Institutions in the Third Estate make these pronouncements suspect.

    “and the evidence is that it will be the story of the 21st century as well.”

    Show us one shred of evidence.

    Three “families” (Waltons, Gates and Buffetts) control about twice the wealth of the bottom 120 million Households in the US of A.

    Democracies with market economies cannot survive in that environment.

    Then there is non-renewable resource consumption, imBalance of trade, the list goes on…

    Show us how to change the unsustainable trajectory of civilization without Fundamental Change in settlement patterns and in governace structure caused by the forces that Robert Reich spells out in “Supercapitalism.”

    EMR

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