Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Loudoun’s Metro Marriage

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by

James A. Bacon
in

This guest column was contributed by David LaRock, a Loudoun County resident and member of the Loudoun Opt Out Group.

Speak now, or forever hold your peace.

Spring is here, romance is in the air, and the arranged marriage between Loudoun County and D.C. Metro seems destined to take place. Although the courtship has spanned decades, the moment draws near when Loudoun must choose whether to whisper the final words of acceptance.

The people of Loudoun know a little about their persistent suitor, but do they know enough? Metro appears to have serious character and money problems.

Around 2004, the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) initiated a fund-raising campaign to address an unfunded $1.5-billion, six-year capital program. Today, according to WMATA’s 2012 budget, the Capital Needs Inventory — the stuff that needs to be replaced as it wears out — has soared to $13.3 billion projected through 2020. That is a total increase of $11.8 billion over 8 years — an addition of $1.5 billion per year. Where will these funds come from?

Beyond 2020, where will the $1.5 billion per year come from to keep the 35-year-old, 106-mile Metro system in good repair? If there is a schedule or plan showing how WMATA will address the ongoing physical depreciation of equipment and facilities, it is nowhere to be found.

For all of its life, Metro has struggled with a lack of dedicated funding sources, relying heavily upon annually appropriated support from state and local governments. That dependence makes the agency vulnerable to recurring financial crises. What if anything, is being done to change that? Loudoun needs to know before tying the knot.

Metro has been hounded for many years by a series of setbacks: lethal accidents, mechanical problems and breakdowns on buses and trains, overcrowding, communications troubles, and ongoing elevator and escalator hassles. Is there any evidence to support the idea that this is changing? Loudoun is listening. Read more.

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  1. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    Let me guess. This is the part of the wedding ceremony where the preacher asks “… if anyone feels this couple should not be united in Holy Matrimony..speak now..or forever hold your…” and the bride Loudoun herself shouts “boy did I ever screw up!”

    One thing we’ll find out if Loudoun changes their mind, we’re going to find out who really wants this rail …eh?

    Oh and one snarky question… of the long list of “issues” with Metro, which ones was Loudoun unaware of from the get go?

  2. constructionandlaborguy Avatar
    constructionandlaborguy

    Consider Wednesday’s meeting with LaHood and the funding partners some Pre-Cana counseling:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dr-gridlock/post/concern-about-metros-silver-line-grows-talks-planned/2012/04/19/gIQA7SIOUT_blog.html

    And it appears that MWAA will delay the release of the RFQ until after Loudoun and Virginia have committed to funding the project:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/process-to-start-second-part-of-dulles-rail-line-delayed/2012/04/18/gIQAvVUfRT_story.html

    The decision has pros and cons (like living with your spouse before your wedding). Pro: Why advertise the RFQ and waste resources of the contractors and MWAA staff if the project is not a green light. Con: MWAA can take the money and sneak in pro-PLA language and inflate costs with little accountability if the stakeholders aren’t careful.

  3. TMT Avatar
    TMT

    Loudoun does not have the density to support heavy rail. But then, according to the FTA, neither did the Dulles Corridor. If it were up to me, I’d build the Silver Line to the Airport and stop. I would also require MWAA and WMATA to impose a $5 surcharge on rail fares that begin or end at IAD. Given Economy Parking is $10 a day and Uncle Sam’s mileage allowance is $0.555, $10 bucks extra on rail passengers is pretty reasonable, IMO.

  4. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    I agree with TMT. Get the rail in – in a minimum configuration and charge a reasonable rate that gives some savings over the cost to drive there and park.

    Make the benefit of the line be – a reliable trip no matter the weather or traffic conditions. People will be more than willing to pay a fair price for that.

    I’m not sure who tells Metro and MWAA to get straight on cost-effectiveness but the Ga telling them to go fish for 300 million was a good start.

    I suspect that BRT on the HOT lanes would function quite well for a lot less money and next year they could actually start that service if they wanted to.

  5. Restonian Avatar
    Restonian

    Larry G:

    The magnitude of potential capital replacement costs for the 35 year old Metrorail system did not become known until the last two years. Even now, WMATA has not answered most of the fundamental questions raised by
    Dave La Rock.

    Some Dulles Rail supporters seem to want to get the bride pregnant before the wedding so as to ensure that a ceremony will take place. Never mind the consequences. This is not a marriage of equals. WMATA, like MWAA, is a multi-state compact whose Board is not elected by voters. Its labor unions are out of control and the WMATA Board has not been able to make much progress in curbing the demands for ever increasing wages while employees insist on employer paid benefits.

    The Board, claiming a lack of dedicated funding sources to maintain its existing system properly, instead seeks to expand its system before working out remedies to the current funding problems. Only a fool would accept such a marriage. MWAA, USDOT, Virginia and Fairfax County apparently are playing us like fools.

    WMATA has deliberately evaded answering most important questions about the feasibility and operating economics of the proposed 23 mile Dulles Rail project, including during its appearance before the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors this week.

    TMT is correct, compared to the areas served by the 103 – now 106 mile – system, the population density of Dulles Rail suburbs is less than one half of what is needed for heavy rail cost effectiveness. Don’t forget, the federal government provided grants of $10+ billion to pay for over 75%
    of the initial 103 miles of Metrorail. Dulles Rail funding is premised on massive debts – not to paid by the WMATA rail riders as might be reasonable, but by others. Democrats love to spend other people’s money. Simply put Dulles Rail, if completed, will cause a huge transfer of wealth from jurisdictions outside the Capital Beltway for the primary benefit of those who live or work Inside the Capital Beltway.

    If a marriage is to occur, and based on the present financial plan it does not seem that it should, a watertight pre-nuptial agreement is needed first.

  6. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    I think there are heavy hitters that are secret supporters.

    there are those who believe that the Capital of the Western Hemisphere is befitting of a first class heavy rail system that connects Washington with a major 24/7 International Airport.

    they see the cost much the same way as they believe that 14K per kid for K-12 education is pricey but necessary.

    The arguments against METRO and the expansion of METRO, and unions have always existed but have become entwined of late in the politics of the culture wars and the move to the right by Conservatives against government in general and unelected govt specifically but unelected governance in both authorities and agencies like VDOT/CTB have been that way for decades without the current anti-govt crusades.

    I’m trying to be fair in my assessment here. Things HAVE changed and METRO/MWAA are really not that different as of late than before and no one that complains about METRO/MWAA seems to have the same concern with VDOT/CTB or the Fairfax Water Authority or dozens of other unelected authorities in the region.

    the focus of the right is on transit and unions… more than it is on unelected governance and transportation decision-making in general.

    fair is fair and this is the truth.

    I’m not particularly thrilled with MWAA but then I was never thrilled with CTB or other unelected authorities and decision-making before, either.

    I think the forces that cherry-pick which authorities and agencies to oppose undermine their own credibility by ignoring very similar things while focusing on other things – because of political considerations rather than true governance or transparency or accountability of all agencies and authorities.

    that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

  7. TMT Avatar
    TMT

    Keeping up with the Jones. I don’t understand why so many people think having a heavy rail connection with IAD is so important when so few people will likely use to get to and from the Airport. If we were talking heavy use, I’d probably agree. But most of the people arguing for rail to IAD are not likely to use it on a regular basis. “But _________ has heavy rail, so we must too.” Reminds me of my mother saying, “If all your friends were going to play on I-94, would you do it too?”
    While we are too far down the road not to build the Silver Line to Dulles, the avearge person in Fairfax County would likely be better off had special BRT lanes have been built in the median of the DTR with stations at Tysons, Reston, Herndon and the Airport. As the Dulles Corridor grew over time, rail could have been built.
    But Bechtel would not have the rail construction project (Phase I); the Tysons landowners would not have unlimited density at four rail stations in Tysons. This suggests who should be paying the most for rail. But this area runs on other people’s money.

  8. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    but for the capital of the free world, and the center of the US govt, one would think that we ought to rate at least as good a airport/subway combo as NY, LA or Chicago.

    from that perspective alone, I’d not be surprised to see a successful earmark from Congress supported bipartisanly.

    at that point, mere cost-effectiveness becomes a mere niggly detail.

    🙂

    Most industrialized countries see transit the same way they do education and health care – basic, fundamental things that are provided.

    In this country, we do not accept transit and health care as fundamental and basic aspects of society – like we do K-12 and higher education.

    In fact, we seem to be moving away from the basic elements of what actually defines industrialized countries themselves.

    transit and health care are under heavy attack and for that matter public education is also.

    basic institutions that once were accepted as basic elements of our country are now questioned and even reviled as parasitic and blood-sucking and need to be done away with or at least turned over to the private sector.

    there is no other country in the world much less no industrialized countries that have moved this far away from what used to be the basic tenets of a modern society.

    MWAA and WAMTA have basically accelerated the self doubt and skepticism that what we once thought was part and parcel of the “great society” is now viewed by many as pre-cursors of a society eroding… deteriorating from the core.

    I don’t think there is 100% agreement on this. In fact I think we’re split but the side that has lost faith is not quiet any more but assertive and demanding.

  9. TMT Avatar
    TMT

    I think Larry has hit the nail squarely on the head and drove it deep into the board. We don’t trust many institutions any more. But many institutions behave in ways that prohibit public trust. WMATA is one of the worst managed government agencies in the United States. It’s costs increase annually faster than income growth or increases in spending by many other government agencies. It lacks many fundamental management controls in the areas of contract management, safety, employee relations, etc. WMATA is a machine designed to suck up other people’s money and provide transit which whatever is left after the corruption and incompetence is funded.
    MWAA, on the other hand, is much more competent as a manager. While there have been a number of management control/reporting problems with its contracting process, MWAA does a reasonably good job of running the airports. MWAA’s problem is arrogance and a penchant for secrecy. MWAA wants to fund corruption, but less than WMATA. MWAA has played cozy with Bechtel and with organized labor. It conducts much of its business in closed meetings. I have a friend who attends virtually every MWAA board meeting as part of his job. He keeps me up-to-date on the board meetings, so I know about what I am writing.
    What bothers me is the failure to expose and reform these institutions. Few elected officials have the stomach to challenge the. And the Post gets its rocks off with any institution that spends more and causes a need for tax increases in Virginia. And the feds; hopeless!

  10. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    we’ve lost faith in our institutions but did most of them fail all at once or did our attitudes about institutions change with regard to them in general?

    We seem to have lost faith in both MWAA and WAMATA but did both of them suddenly get much worse or did we just get to know them too well and the familiarity bred contempt?

    Is WAMATA truly any worse than most other large urbanized transit systems or are we fed up with the way that all of them “work”?

    It seems to me that MWAA has been like it is for quite a while but politics about PLAs has changed the game… am I wrong?

    Have our institutions actually degraded and they’ve reached the end of our patience?

    TMT exemplifies a mindset where he has lost faith in the folks who plan METRO and the folks who run METRO but he would not shut it down… and I’ve heard no realistic reform proposals so it is what it is?

    that’s a question.

  11. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    I can clearly remember the “Don’t Fairfax Loudoun” bumper stickers which appeared in great numbers on cars in Loudoun County. Then came the massive development from the Fairfax County line out to Leesburg.

    Funny, you don’t see those bumper stickers much any more.

    As long as the Washington, DC area remains an economic engine its population will grow faster than the national average. That’s been the case since I was born in Washington in 1959.

    Sprawl is a fact of life in fast growing regions. Every fast growing region in the United States has the negative effects of sprawl. There is nothing unique about Washington or Northern Virginia when it comes to sprawl.

    While sprawl can’t be eliminated, it can be managed. However, that management needs to start before the sprawl has become uncontrollable. Arlington has done a good job of managing their population growth since 1980. The Metro was a big part of that. Reston is one of Northern Virginia’s most livable / workable areas. It is a planned community founded in 1964. Apparently, the plan is working since office space in the town center is going for $45 – $50 per sq ft while space in most of Tyson’s can be had for $30 – $35.

    Funny how planning ahead actually increases the value of an area over time.

    All the whining about Rail to Dulles makes the fatal assumption that things will remain the way they are now. Robert E Simon conceived Reston on April 10, 1964 – 48 years ago. For quite some time there was serious question as to whether this “planned community” would work. Some people openly favored the approach taken in Tyson’s Corner where “private property rights were king”. In retrospect, which of the two areas – Tyson’s or Reston – was more successful. Funny how planning ahead actually increases the value of an area over time.

    Given the observable failure of the “Don’t Fairfax Loudoun” program in Easter Loudoun maybe we need a new bumper sticker. Something like:

    “Let’s Ballston Loudoun”
    “More Restons, Fewer Tyson’s”
    “Thinking Ahead – It’s Not Just for Liberals Anymore”

  12. TMT Avatar
    TMT

    The Fairfax County Comp Plan for Tysons envisions many expensive additions to transportation and other public facilities, with some of the costs being assigned to the Tysons landowners and some to “taxpayers.” One of the key assumptions underlying the Plan is additions to public facilities should not be made well in advance of the development. For example, it makes no sense for an elementary school to be built in Tysons before it would be needed. We don’t’ want a school building to sit empty for 15 years. Nor do we want to make either the landowners or taxpayers funding this school 15 years in advance of its use.
    Likewise, we don’t want to build the $800 M internal circulator before it’s needed. We want to time additions to infrastructure and development to match each other to the greatest degree possible. Both developers and citizens groups agree with that. From what I understand about Loudoun’s Comp Plan, it too tries to achieve optimal timing of growth and infrastructure.
    Is heavy rail different? Why do many who would oppose adding road capacity years ahead of when it is needed tend to support building heavy rail years ahead of when it is needed? Is it because we are likely to use so much “Other People’s Money” for rail? If “build it and they will come” is OK for the Silver Line, why is it not OK for the $5.46 B needed for non-rail transportation infrastructure for Tysons by 2051? Keep in mind VDOT estimated new passenger growth for Dulles Rail will be 1000 per year (on average) through 2030. Don’t we need one set of rules?

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