Bacon's Rebellion

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Loudoun Development: Batteries Not Included

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James A. Bacon
in

Proposed development of 28,000 residential units in the “Dulles South” area of Loudoun County would create regional gridlock for miles around, maintains a Virginia Department of Transportation preliminary analysis of the traffic impact. By 2025, the proposal would generate 300,000 trips per day, creating hours of stop-and-go traffic as far away as Herndon, Fairfax city and into Prince William County.

The Washington Post has the story here. Sayeth the Post:

Investment needed to prevent such gridlock could “easily” reach hundreds of millions of dollars, VDOT spokeswoman Joan Morris said. That’s on top of the billions of dollars already planned to extend Metrorail to Dulles and widen three of the highways in question.

The analysis represents the first application by the Kaine administration of a new law enabling VDOT to conduct detailed traffic impact analyses of local development projects. The Kainiacs picked a good place to start — the tip of the spear of growth… the development frontier of Loudoun County, which has been consistently one of the fastest two or three growing municipalities in the country over the past decade.

Del. Joe May, R-Loudoun, had the best quote:

“This is another excellent example of why we’re going to have to coordinate land use with transportation,” said [May] who believes the Dulles South plan would overwhelm the region. “The plan reminds me of those words on so many toy boxes, ‘Batteries Not Included.’ Only in this case, the words should be: ‘Roads Not Included.’”

But not everyone is panicking. Observed Loudoun Supervisor Stephen J. Snow (R-Dulles): The VDOT project does not include nearly $200 million in road construction and other public improvements that would be financed as part of a proposal by Greenvest, a Fairfax County developer, to build 15,000 housing units and supporting commercial space in the area.

Meanwhile, the Greenvest proposal moved one step closer to approval with an 8-0-1 vote by the Loudoun County planning commission to increase planned residential densities in a “transition” area west of Dulles airport. The transition is designed to segue between the farms and hamlets of western Loudoun and and the suburban-style development spilling from Fairfax County into eastern Loudoun. Leesburg2Day.com has that story.

Update: Here is a copy of VDOT’s letter to the Loudoun County Department of Planning, and the accompanying map showing 2025 traffic volumes and projected levels of service.

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11 responses to “Loudoun Development: Batteries Not Included”

  1. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    OK, so what are the options?

    Assume those 28,000 units will be occupied. (so much for the housing slowdown.) Suppose you sprinkle them all over NOVA. You still have 300,000 added trips, and now you have no idea where the problems will appear.

    Or, you could just put them in SW
    Virginia, and send the jobs down there, too.

    Or, we could put a 28,000 unit mixed use TOD at Vienna by converting the parking garages. 😉

  2. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Ray, you raise a valid issue. Assuming that growth is going to occur in Northern Virginia, the residents of those 28,000 homes are going to live somewhere. They will generate 300,000 trips (maybe less, if the pattern of development is more traffic-efficent)somewhere. Is it possible anywhere in Northern Virginia to put 28,000 residences without swamping the transportation system?

    What the VDOT preliminary analysis doesn’t tell us, and what the Washington Post doesn’t ask is this: How traffic-efficient will development in this quadrant of Loudoun County be? Will it be Business As Usual sprawl? Or will be be designed to reduce traffic?

    I hope to find out some answers. I’m heading up to Loudoun next week to meet with Greenvest.

  3. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    We are already swamped. Or at least a few places are for part of the day.

    It is easy to see why those that moved there first are anxious to prevent the second wave.

  4. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    Wouldn’t it make sense to see the impact of the Greenvest proffer on the overall traffic issue? Whether one supports, opposes or is undecided about the zoning application, shouldn’t the variable considered by VDOT’s model as well?

    Personally, this is probably another case of removing plaque from a small section of the arteries of a person who circulatory system is generally impaired from head to toe, but having more facts and analysis is better than arguing “what ifs” and “maybes.”

  5. RedBull Avatar
    RedBull

    I was listening to The Washington Post Radio Show this morning on this topic and it highlighted the rationale for placing the development in Western Loudoun County.

    Essentially, the BOS believes that if they don’t build the 28,000 homes in Loudoun County, then much of that development will occur westward of Loudoun County. So, at the end of the day, LC will be forced to upgrade its road system for commuters who are simply passing through the county to a point farther west.

    In other words, LC will have to build their infrastructure to support the growth regardless of where it goes. So, they feel it might as well be build it in Loudon. That way they will get a share of the tax receipts that the growth will generate.

    IMHO, the Greenvest Proposal is a risky proposition and I address that here – http://morgansriflemen.blogspot.com/2006/05/community-development-authorities-who.html

  6. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    Loudoun’s argument in favor of building the additional houses is weak unless it can be shown that new residential construction contributes more tax dollars than it would take to pay for its share of the added infrastructure and the costs for the additional county services required by the new residents. Of course, Loudoun County could reduce its likely loss on the new residents by not building sufficient infrastructure to support the new residents. That may be what the county has in mind.

    Keep in mind that if a significant number of the 28,000 homes are constructed to the west and south of Loudoun County, Loudoun’s roads would be carry added traffic, but probably not on weekends. Moreover, all those school children would be learning in schools built by non-Loudoun County taxpayers and would play soccer and baseball on fields somewhere else.

    Of course, if some of the good-paying jobs also migrated to south and to the west as well, Loudoun’s roads wouldn’t be as burdened. As Ray Hyde has correctly observed so many times, “we need more places.”

  7. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    That map is pretty scary.

  8. Tobias Jodter Avatar
    Tobias Jodter

    I have driven the roads around Dulles Airport virtually every day since 1989 – Routes 28, 50, 606 + Braddock Road, Waxpool Road etc – from my house in Centreville. I think everyone is really underestimating how bad traffic in the 50/606 corridor has become.

    As recently as the spring of 2003 I could drive the length of 606 from 50 to the Greenway in 5 minutes without stopping. Now one would be lucky to do it in 20 minutes. I drive these roads daily, I know every shortcut and back road. I know where every development is and is going to go. All I can say is that if the Greenvest thing goes through as planned it will be an unmitigated disaster.

    Jim, if you are driving in that area next week – keep in mind it’s the summer – schools out and people are on vacation. It’s much much worse after the summer is over.

  9. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    Assume that Loudoun County were to approve the rezoning requests in the face of this evidence and also failed to obtain proffers that, along with any other available funds, were still insufficient to address the traffic problems. (By raising this issue, I am not suggesting that the Loudoun County BoS would truly take such action.)

    Under these assumptions, would the approval effectively constitute a violation of citizens’ federal right to travel? The creation of stop-and-go traffic for more than six hours per day does create a substantial burden on people’s ability to travel, including the ability to cross state lines (e.g., to or from the District or Maryland). Such action on the part of the Loudoun Board would likely constitute state action. Would it be possible, under these assumed facts, to file a federal civil rights action alleging a violation of the right to travel by state action under color of law?

    This is a bit out of the box, but might it still be possible to litigate land use decisions in federal court? If so, why? If not, why not (crazier things have been litigated.) I’m not arguing for or against this, just trying to move a few miles ahead of the curve.

  10. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Greenvests entire idea is crazy, from the start. Why would anyone want to build or buy near an airport? One reason is that Fauquier County is closed for business, and no one else wants the growth either. But if you wanted to save important open space, I cant think of anyplace more valuable than land around the Airport.

    On the other hand. The airport is a big feature, just as if it was a large lake, and all the traffic has to go around it, which reduces options and increases VMT.

    The whole idea is dumber than dirt.

  11. HP notebook battery Avatar
    HP notebook battery

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