Let Me Get This Straight…

by James A. Bacon

Wyatt Gordon writes about smart growth issues for the Virginia Mercury and Greater Greater Washington. Sometimes, he’s worth reading. But, then, sometimes, he’s not. As an example of the latter, he recently posted this on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter:

So, let me get this straight. If Gordon avoided emitting 54,000 pounds of carbon pollution by driving 1,000 miles on his electric bike instead of driving a car, he says he’s saving 54 pounds per mile. Is that physically possible?

Now, I never took high school chemistry, but I do know that a pound of gasoline does not translate into a pound of CO2 emissions. According to the EPA, when gasoline is combusted, it frees up carbon atoms and hydrogen atoms. The hydrogen atoms combine with oxygen atoms in the air to create water. The carbon atoms combine with oxygen atoms to create CO2. Most of the weight of a CO2 molecule comes from oxygen atoms that were not present in the gasoline. In that way, says the EPA, a gallon of gasoline does indeed transmute into about 20 pounds of tailpipe carbon.

But unless Gordon toodles around town in a monster truck, he’s likely getting 20 or more miles to the gallon. Basic arithmetic tells us that a car that gets 20 miles to the gallon consumes 1/20th of a gallon per mile. Therefore, it generates 1/2oth of a gallon’s worth of tailpipe carbon per mile… or about one pound.

Gordon appears to have overstated his reduced CO2 emissions by a factor of 50.

That’s not the scary part.
If people follow Gordon’s lead and start riding electric bikes, they’re not hurting anyone. They might even help reduce CO2 emissions (though at one 50th of the efficacy that Gordon suggests). What’s scary is this Twitter post.

Here’s what Next City says about itself: “Next City’s journalism centers marginalized voices while amplifying solutions to the problems that oppress people in cities.” VPM, of course, is Virginia Public Media.

Oh, great, one of the leading media properties in Virginia will disseminate the work of a journalist whose beat is “reparations and Virginia’s racial reckoning” — from a leftist perspective, of course.

Maybe that reporter will be better at arithmetic than Gordon, but I’m anticipating the usual misuse and abuse of statistics to “prove” the existence of systemic racism everywhere. The consequence will not be as harmless as converting people into electric bike riders. The constant drumbeat of “racism… racism… racism…” will engender an unjustified sense of grievance, victimhood and polarization that will do nothing to improve the lives of minorities — indeed, it will likely induce unproductive attitudes and behavior — but it will advance narratives that allow the predominantly White woke educational/cultural elite to bask in their superior virtue.


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56 responses to “Let Me Get This Straight…”

  1. DJRippert Avatar

    My guess? The difference in estimates is probably due to the inefficiencies of internal combustion engines when a car is started and over a short drive.

    My understanding is that cars pollute a lot more when they are first started than on average.

    So, assuming the eBike trips are short they avoid the “pollution expensive” part of a car ride.

    Not sure this justifies the claim but it bears further examination.

    As far as the opening for a reporter …. ugh! To a hammer everything looks like a nail. A reporter hired to report on reparations is very unlikely to find that reparations are unfair, unnecessary, etc. Built in bias.

    1. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
      f/k/a_tmtfairfax

      Even Woke California doesn’t like reparations. But if reparations are warranted for harm caused by governments allowing bad things to happen to people based on their categorization, I’m looking for reparations for the mini-Blaine Amendments.

    2. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      “My understanding is that cars pollute a lot more when they are first started than on average.”

      That is true, but over the years changes have been made to emissions control systems to reduce start up emissions.

      A couple of examples:

      1)Starting in about the mid 80s, heated oxygen sensors, with a 12V heater. (An oxygen sensor doesn’t produce a signal that can be used to control air/fuel ratio until it is at operating temp, therefore, the quicker they warm up, the less emissions they produce. Some vehicles at idle, the unheated oxygen sensor would cool down too much and stop producing a signal, increasing pollution)

      2)Starting in about the mid 2000s, planar oxygen sensors that get up to operating temperature quicker than the older thimble style.

      3)Catalytic converters integrated into the exhaust manifold, bringing them closer to the engine so they heat up and start working that much quicker.

    3. Electronic/computer control of ignition timing and fuel injection mapping have greatly reduced that phenomenon.

      It is perfectly acceptable to use average fuel mileage to compute an estimate of the emissions from a modern ICE automobile.

      I think the reporter’s overestimation of the carbon emissions he “saved” is more likely due to him not being very good at math.

      RE: As far as the opening for a reporter …. ugh! To a hammer everything looks like a nail. A reporter hired to report on reparations is very unlikely to find that reparations are unfair, unnecessary, etc

      Well put.

    4. LarrytheG Avatar

      I have a device called a scan gauge in my Tacoma. Once it’s warmed up and running at a rational speed, it gets 20mpg.

      But in the first mile right after starting, it’s lucky to give 5 mpg.

      A van or full-sized pickup lucky to get 2 mpg.

      In that time period, pretty sure it’s dumping significant pollution into the air.

      Sitting at traffic signals while running has got to be even worse.

      Journalism does have a LOT of warts.. even on display right here in BR at times! Pot. Kettle. Black!

      1. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        “In that time period, pretty sure it’s dumping significant pollution into the air.”

        Your scan gauge is also capable of displaying other info, specifically, “closed loop status”, either “open” or “closed”.

        Next cold start, see how long it takes to get into “closed” loop. Once that happens, the oxygen sensor is hot enough to control the air/fuel ratio, and the catalytic converter has lit off as well. At this point nox (nitrous oxide), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbon emissions are being oxidized and reduced by the catalytic converter.

        Most vehicles I’ve checked get into closed loop status very quickly, within a minute or less.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          Yes. My driveway is one mile from the county secondary. I check the scan gage on the way to see when it gets warm in the winter.. and gas mileage normal. Not every vehicle has all the metrics though. The scan gage can present instantaneous and average on fuel use. Speaking of catalytic converters… would you say they were created by the free market or govt regulation to reduce emissions? IOW, would we have the reduced emissions if the govt had not required it?

          1. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I’d be curious how long your vehicle is taking to get into closed loop. It definitely takes longer in the winter on the ones I’ve checked.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar

            how would I know again? want to know how many seconds/minutes? Are you knowledgeable about this related to your work or schooling, hobby?

          3. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Set your scangauge to display the closed loop status (I think it shows this as CL). Start the engine and note how long it takes to go from OPEN to CLOSED. It will go to closed loop quicker if you don’t let the vehicle sit and idle to warm up (letting a vehicle idle to warm up wastes a lot of gas and creates a lot of pollution, therefore it isn’t recommended–in the coldest of winter days I might let it warm up for 15-30 seconds, then we’re off–if the windshield is covered in frost then I’ll clean it off while the engine is running to warm up).

            Computers and electronics are a hobby of mine, so naturally I take in interest in engine control systems too.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar

            I seldom warm up even in winter. I give it the one mile to switch on the defrost to work! 😉

          5. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Everything I’ve ever read says that prolonged warmups are not beneficial in anyway, even to the engine.

          6. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            Exactly. The fuel/air mixture is cold at start up. The atomized mixture is too rich at start up. The motor basically is running on a choke until you reach operating temperature. The best thing you can do is start the motor and drive immediately.

          7. LarrytheG Avatar

            hmm… not familiar looking.. I may have an older model? I’ll look.

          8. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I know the Scangauge II supports it, the original Scangauge is so old that it won’t work with anything newer than about 2004 (it doesn’t support can-bus).

            There have been other versions of the Scangauge since the Scangauge II, I have not used any of them.

          9. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            That’s it. On a cold start, see how long that takes to get from OPEN to CLSD. I bet it’s pretty quick.

          10. LarrytheG Avatar

            It took a little more than a mile.. the subdivision road then maybe 1/8 mile on secondary. It goes back to closed for most of the time except when I decelerate. I think the temp was maybe over 100 when it flipped to open on the way out of the subdivision.

          11. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            It’ll change to OPEN during deceleration (foot off the gas pedal), because the fuel injectors are commanded off and no fuel is going into the engine, therefore the computer ignores any oxygen sensor input because it’s meaningless at that point.

            On my 1998 Nissan Frontier, it has changed to CLOSED within 1/4 mile of a cold start.

          12. LarrytheG Avatar

            has to be SOME fuel on deccel or the engine would quit, no?

          13. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Generally not, when you’re decelerating the transmission is driving the engine(and you’re getting some engine braking), so no fuel is required to keep it going. This ability to shut off the fuel to the engine during deceleration is one way that fuel injection produces less emissions than carburetion–can’t do this with a carburetor. The name for this is DFCO, “deceleration fuel cut off”.

            On a vehicle with a manual transmission, when you’re decelerating in gear (clutch not pushed in), when the fuel is turned back on (it’s often turned back on around 1000RPM to keep the engine from stalling, though this varies by engine and manufacturer) it can be pretty noticeable. On some vehicles I think this may be intentional, to alert the driver that they need to push that clutch in NOW to keep the engine from stalling.

          14. Generally not, when you’re decelerating the transmission is driving the engine(and you’re getting some engine braking), so no fuel is required to keep it going.

            That phenomenon is why oil injectors were added to many later model two-stroke motorcycle engines. Oil injectors allow you to do away with mixing gas and oil for fuel. It provides continuous lubrication to the top end.

            On a bike that uses pre-mix, the lack of fuel during deceleration also means a lack of lubrication to the piston & cylinder, which shortens engine life.

            You have to keep that oil tank topped off, though.

          15. Generally not, when you’re decelerating the transmission is driving the engine(and you’re getting some engine braking), so no fuel is required to keep it going.

            That phenomenon is why oil injectors were added to many later model two-stroke motorcycle engines. Oil injectors allow you to do away with mixing gas and oil for fuel. It provides continuous lubrication to the top end.

            On a bike that uses pre-mix, the lack of fuel during deceleration also means a lack of lubrication to the piston & cylinder, which shortens engine life.

            You have to keep that oil tank topped off, though.

          16. Matt Adams Avatar

            With EFI after the initial up idle it will enter closed loop. O2 sensors roughly take 20 seconds to warm up.

          17. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            The R&D for catalytic converters was done by the private sector before any government mandated their use, as it should be.

      2. DJRippert Avatar

        Your scan gauge describes what I was talking about. But … even a 4X difference in the first mile vs average doesn’t explain the 50X overstatement in Gordon’s tweet.

        As far as your journalism point …

        BR has bloggers from different perspectives. If NextCity.Org simultaneously was hiring a journalist to report on excesses of DEI your point would be more valid.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          Yeah.. I think the article is bogus.. ditto for some of BRs!

          😉

      3. Also, the computer in your Tacoma computes and maintains a rolling average of your fuel mileage.

        That average includes the brief times when it is getting 5 mpg, it includes the brief times that it is getting “99” mpg (coasting down a hill), the times it is sitting still getting 0 mpg, and every other time the engine is running.

        So, if you use the average fuel mileage to compute the vehicle’s carbon emission load, you won’t be too far off.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          it has both, yes. The instantaneous is not too useful on the Tacoma but is on the scan gage. I think it has to do with the sample frequency. Bottom line, the first mile gets horrible gas mileage, even worse on the Van… suspect it’s true of most vehicles.

          1. Yes. That is true of all ICE powered vehicles. But the extra carbon being released while the vehicle is getting 5 mpg is accounted for in the average fuel mileage.

        2. Matt Adams Avatar

          Do you find it ironic that someone who champions Unions drives a vehicle from a manufacture who doesn’t use them.

  2. Does he not charge up his 3-bike? What about that carbon footprint?

    I have another question. If large numbers of people switch to e-bikes, how will that impact existing vehicle traffic? Unless we completely rebuild our road system to accommodate bicycles on separate roads, it will slow traffic, and result in greater CO2 emissions from gasoline powered vehicles.

    Virginia’s Three Feet Rule
    Virginia’s three feet rule requires drivers to keep a distance of at least three feet when passing a bicyclist. If it is not safe to provide three feet of clearance, the driver must wait until it is safe to pass. Motorists must follow this rule when passing bicycles, electric personal mobility devices, mopeds, and e-bicycles. This law applies to all roadways in Virginia.

    https://www.tavss.com/blog/three-feet-rule-when-passing-bicycles-in-virginia.cfm#:~:text=Virginia's%20three%20feet%20rule%20requires,it%20is%20safe%20to%20pass.

    1. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
      f/k/a_tmtfairfax

      If you buy an EV, an E-bike or an E-scooter, you don’t have to count the emissions from the generation of electricity. You may assume that all of your electricity came from renewable sources. The fossil fuel electricity is all consumed by those people who drive ICE vehicles. The laws of physics have been changed to accommodate the self-righteous.

      As to E-bikes, we rode them in Europe this spring. I truly enjoyed the ride.

      1. James Kiser Avatar
        James Kiser

        How cold was it ?

  3. Some people believed in the healing properties of snake oil, too. And there’s all that “trouble in River City.”

    1. Wait. Snake oil doesn’t restore hair?

      Darn it!

      Another $74.99 down the drain…

  4. There may be a limit on how much “talent” they can get in a “journalist” for $50k. We can hope.

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Well, we have more than a few here. We could ask.

  5. “Next City’s journalism centers marginalized voices while amplifying solutions to the problems that oppress people in cities.”?

    Word salad. With wilted lettuce, overripe tomatoes and stale croutons. And dressing that has been left out on the picnic table all afternoon.

    1. DJRippert Avatar

      And those disgusting anchovies soaked in oil!

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Wait! Can a crouton be stale? I thought they found croutons in the pyramids…

      1. Slaves transported them hundreds of miles from where they were quarried and pushed them up ramps to put them in place. Some weighed up to 40 tons and were precisely sliced.

        Although I think you’re right, croutons are by definition stale. Dunno what they’re called before they achieve staleness, little pieces of bread subsequently known as croutons I suppose. I also suppose they could identify as cis-croutons before they transition.

      2. I think once bread becomes croutons the definition of “stale” is reversed.

        Bread dries out, hardens up and becomes stale, allowing the formation of croutons.

        If croutons sit out in an unsealed container the humidity makes them soggy and they becomes stale.

        Interestingly, stale croutons do not form bread – they are just stale croutons.

        It’s a complicate process that scientists still do not fully understand.

  6. Do they still include a Free 5-Year Unlimited Mileage Transferrable feeling of smug moral superiority with each purchase of an e-bike? I know they were doing that a few years back…

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      South Park’s smug v smog episode was great.

  7. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    First, break everything down to moles. Then take Avogadro’s number of octane molecules…. Yeah, go ahead, not me.

    Maybe not, but he’s saved a clear ton of kWh generation. 1000 miles in a typical car is ~40 gals of gasoline at something like 35 kWh per gallon.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      The folks who “get” moles and Avogadro’s number are a step up …. and often weird… 😉

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        My daughter called me two months ago in the middle of conducting a lab cleanup and started asking me to do chemistry. She was yacking away for about five minutes about acids, bases, this and that, and I finally said, “Two points, Honey. Avogadro’s Number, and I flunked high school chemistry after the fire.”

    2. As the mole turns:

      The mole was originally defined as the number of atoms in 12 grams of carbon-12, but in 2018 the General Conference on Weights and Measures announced that effective May 20, 2019, the mole would be just 6.02214076 × 10^23 of some chemical unit. — from Britannica.com

      DEI in chemistry. All moles are now equal. It’s about time…

      1. But voles are always smaller. It’s the power of consonants.

      2. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        What about warts?

        When I was in college, there were only 6 basic units of measurement. The mole was added to the CRC in one of the following editions.

  8. I’m trying to wrap my head around the nextcity.org rant. They are building websites that do reporting on local issues from a strongly left wing perspective. You are running a website that does local reporting from a strongly right-wing perspective. They wear their political perspective on their sleeve. So do you and most of your contributors. What’s the complaint exactly?

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