In my recent column, “The Next Transportation Crisis,” I quoted Department of Transportation figures to the effect that federal gasoline tax receipts had declined slightly in the first few months of 2007, possibly foreshadowing a long-term slowdown in gasoline consumption.
Reader Bill O’Keefe, a consultant who closely tracks the oil and gas industry, offers different numbers and a different interpretation. According to the American Petroleum Institute, he says, gasoline deliveries in 2007 set a first half record, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day — 1.5 percent higher than the first half of 2006. Gasoline imports set a record of 1.3 million barrels per day for the second quarter.
On a month-to-month basis deliveries may not match up with consumption, says O’Keefe, but they do track closely over longer periods of time. Monthly comparisons are tricky because a number of variables, such as weather, can briefly skew the numbers. “For example, if last February was unseasonably warm and this one was colder, there would be less driving and less gas consumed. But that would be weather driven and not an underlying change in demand.”
Let it never be said that I don’t entertain both sides of the story!