Is D.C.’s Loss Virginia’s Gain?

Boarded up store in Washington, D.C.’s chi chi Georgetown district. Photo credit: Washingtonian

by Bruce Majors

Mayor Muriel Bowser — elected to a third term in a June 21 primary where only 27% of registered voters voted, and only 14% voted for her — is lamenting the bus loads of illegal immigrants that Texas politicians are shipping to D.C. Apparently DC homeless shelters are full.

Maybe she should be happy though?

Walking along M Street NW from the Ritz Carlton Hotel in West End, past the Four Seasons in Georgetown, to the Francis Scott Key bridge that takes one to Arlington, Virginia, was usually a pleasant stroll through one of DC’s most upscale shopping districts.

But if you take this walk today, one thing you will notice is that every fourth or fifth storefront is closed, for lease, papered over, or boarded up.

When the city was still mask-mandated and locked down – and other towns and cities were on fire, marred by rioting, or occupied by “autonomous zones” – this might have seemed normal. D.C. isn’t locked down anymore. Yet Georgetown and other areas remain surprisingly vacated.

D.C. is shrinking.
Insurrectionists will no longer need to come here to protest the deep state or the political class. If they just wait until 2050, at the current rate of de-population, Washington, D.C.. will cease to exist.

D.C. has been losing almost 3% of its population every year since 2019, just under 20,000 residents a year. So far it has lost almost 50,000 people, dropping from 705,000 to just over 657,000.

In local news, and on local platforms like Nextdoor, you can see the many problems D.C. is having. Read local residents’ complaints: car jackings; pet owners having their dogs stolen at gunpoint; large homeless encampments on  green space; vagrants and the mentally ill defecating in resident’s yards or on public sidewalks; children on school playgrounds throwing rocks at cars as they drive by; people shooting at cats sleeping on the window ledges of apartment buildings; a naked man walking down 18th street past restaurants in broad daylight; all terrain vehicles noisily racing down urban streets; 2 a,m, fireworks in residential neighborhoods like Kingman Park; constant breaking of car windows and thefts from cars (leading the Georgetown Citizen’s Association to put up permanent warning signs); panhandlers and raving lunatics, some spouting genocidal racism, on Metro platforms; gropers and other sexual harassers on buses and subways. If you read Nextdoor for Arlington, VA, you don’t find the same excitement.

It’s easy to see why — even aside from lockdowns and mask and vaccine mandates — people are leaving D.C.

D.C. elected officials don’t talk about this. Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton had a July 4th tweet with a beautiful photo of Independence Day fireworks, noting that “nearly 700,000” in D.C. do not have the full representation American citizens fought for in creating a constitutional republic.

It’s not just that her numbers are out of date. One of the arguments for D.C. Statehood — making DC the 51st state — is that D.C. has a larger population than some states that have two Senators. But soon this will not be true. While D.C. was shrinking from 2019 to 2022 not only nearby urban areas — like Alexandria, Virginia or Philadelphia — grew, but so did those states that the D.C. Statehood activists often cite. At current rates D.C. will have a smaller population than Vermont in a year or two, and a smaller population than Wyoming in three or four.

From 2019 to 2022, nearby jurisdictions with similarly high levels of Democrat Party voter registration, similar (though not as draconian) lockdown policies, similar all-Democrat mayors and city councils, and similarly exploding housing costs, did NOT shrink. Arlington grew from 236,00 to 239,000; Alexandria grew from 159,000 to 163,000; Fairfax City grew from 24,000 to 25,000; Virginia Beach grew from 449,000 to 461,000; The Richmond metropolitan area grew from 1,105,000 to 1,128,000. From 2019 to 2022, Virginia’s population grew by about 100,000 people, from just under 8,600,000 to just under 8,700,000. (Charlottesville, a university town whose main industry closed down for COVID, had a miniscule population loss.)

Maryland also gained 100,000 residents, growing from 6,062,000 in 2019 to 6,157,000 in 2022. Baltimore did suffer a large drop in population. So, out of all the Democrat-ruled cities in the region, the demonstrated preferences of migrating residents suggests people view D.C. as most like Baltimore, not Alexandria, Arlington, or Richmond. (In D.C.’s Maryland suburbs, Bethesda, MD’s population of 63,000 remained static, as did Silver Spring at 81,000 and Takoma Park at 17,700.)

You’d think D.C. politicians and Statehood activists would argue that the absence of full representation in the Senate is what is driving people to leave D.C. But instead they blamed COVID (which Philadelphia and Alexandria and Vermont and Wyoming also had).

When the D.C. Libertarian Party tweeted out a warning about the shrinking D.C. population, and asked that we consider what policies were leading people to leave, Congresswoman Eleanor Holmes Norton’s communications staffer also blamed COVID. When the Libertarian account tweeted out the infamous Roll Call video of Delegate Norton hitting other cars while she attempted to park, asking if the staffer thought it was Norton’s bad driving leading residents to flee, the comm staffer replied that the question was “ugly” and then tweeted something she has since deleted, saying she had called the national Libertarian Party office and spoken with its Executive Director about the DC LP.  “Have a nice evening!” she snarked. Two or three of her friends attempted a rather weak ratioing. Then two days later twitter suspended the Libertarian account (libertarian_dc) claiming it was “impersonating” some imaginary real D.C. Libertarian Party Twitter account.

That’s one way to NOT discuss which policies of our incumbent political class — incumbents who were just re-elected in the primary with ONLY 27% of DC registered voters turning out to vote for OR against them — are driving DC’s residents away. But for the 73% of D.C. voters who did not find anyone worth voting for in their party’s primary, for D.C. residents who want no more lockdowns and no more mandates, for D.C .residents who want free speech, for D.C. Democrats who didn’t vote for the incumbents in the primary and don’t want to vote for them in the general election, there is an alternative. They should vote Libertarian.

Northern Virginia resident Bruce Majors has written for The Hill, the Los Angeles Times, Reason, and other publications. He writes a Substack column, The Insurrection.


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Comments

78 responses to “Is D.C.’s Loss Virginia’s Gain?”

  1. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    Well, the single biggest reason to live in the district is to be close to your office and shorten or eliminate your commute. In this new age of remote work….not so much. Has to be part of it.

    1. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      The vast majority of individuals employed by the Federal Government cannot afford to live in the District, at least in the areas where you’d want to live.

      However, the Fed pays for their Metro so they just have to live along one of the lines.

      1. Lefty665 Avatar
        Lefty665

        … when of course Metro chooses to run the trains.

        1. Yes as of yesterday a big chunk of the red line in the business district and the wealthiest NW DC neighborhoods that have a metro (really wealthy ones don’t have a subway) are closed. Dupont Circle metro caught on fire.

    2. Bruce Majors Avatar
      Bruce Majors

      True. Though other cities, except Baltimore, are not losing population as badly. And they all had school teachers teaching from home and more remote workers too.

  2. WayneS Avatar

    This is all fine with me. As far as I am concerned, the only residents of Washington, DC, should be the president and his immediate family, and that might be pushing it.

    The constitution states that congress shall have the power: To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States..

    There’s nothing in there about this “district” being a city or about it containing privately-owned property. In fact, the language of this clause implies that the land within the district will be federally-owned.

    We never should have allowed DC to become a city in the first place. I think we should shrink it down to the absolute minimum size needed for federal buildings and offices, allowing all remaining privately-owned property to revert back to Maryland.

    1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      About as much chance of that happening as there is of DC becoming a state. Meanwhile, “nearly 700,000” give or take are taxed with no representation. Maybe we should just not collect federal income tax from DC residents until it can all be straightened out. Probably re-reverse the population trend, eh…??

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        What a concept. Sort of a tax incentive? 😉

      2. WayneS Avatar

        I have no objection whatsoever to DC residents/citizens receiving their representation via Maryland. Since the land originally belonged to Maryland, people who reside in DC could be included as Marylanders for purposes of congressional districting.

        Problem solved.

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          As a part-time resident of Maryland … no thanks. Those DC votes would have been just enough to keep a great Republican governor, Larry Hogan, out of office.

          1. WayneS Avatar

            Sorry. Sometimes you’ve got to take one for the team…

            😉

          2. YellowstoneBound1948 Avatar
            YellowstoneBound1948

            A lot of people down here (Tennessee) are saying good things about Hogan. I am going to check him out.

          3. He is the best Maryland could probably have elected at the time.

        2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          Except it ain’t gonna happen… you know… politically… same reason statehood ain’t happening…

          1. WayneS Avatar

            Yeah, Captain Obvious, I know it’s not going to happen. I was just having a little fun.

            You do know what fun is, right?

          2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            It just seemed a strange post after posting the same thought earlier on the thread. Sorry, to (re-)state the obvious.

        3. Lefty665 Avatar
          Lefty665

          And it would be some poetic justice for the Northwest residents agitating for statehood. Make ’em Marylanders. Hehe. Comes under the heading of be careful what you wish for.

      3. Lefty665 Avatar
        Lefty665

        Maybe we should just not collect federal income tax from DC residents until it can all be straightened out.

        If you look at the percentage of D.C. residents who actually pay federal income tax now, that goal may be largely accomplished already.

        1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          Well then make it official…

        2. DC elected officials and Statehood activists claim the average DC resident pays more federal taxes than any other state. Of course many of them are paying it on the income they receive from the federal government, and others are lobbyists or work in jobs that only exist because of the federal government. These are among the very few groups I don’t want to see reduced taxation for.

          1. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            Statistics are slippery things. D.C. is still bifurcated (half gentrified) isn’t it? Either very high or very low incomes and not a lot in the middle? That makes the “average” an imaginary number. Bet there are more people paying no FIT than a lot.

            I certainly agree with your list of people who should NOT have their taxes reduced.

          2. DC is bifurcated. It used to be along 16th Street – east was poor and black, west was rich (and all races). Then the line moved to 14th Street. Then to 11th. Now it is the Anacostia River, and the federally imported lawyers are beginning to gentrify Anacostia.

        3. Eleanor Holmes Norton proposed that the first 2 times she ran for Delegate to Congress, but then quit. The Republican and the Libertarian candidates for Delegate usually propose it. Eleanor was of course outed her first time out, I believe by city councilwoman Betty Ann Keane, who was running against her (Betty Ann then retired to Rehoboth Beach DE and got elected to the city council there), outed for not ever filing her DC income taxes. Norton, a Yale Law School grad and a feminist who had represented Ms. Magazine as as attorney then said: “Oh, I did not know. My husband does our taxes.”

      4. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        Lol. DC would be the fastest growing city in America! The boys and girls from the Carlyle Group would have a lot of new neighbors from the PE and VC firms.

    2. Coincidentally, there are several cooperative apartment buildings in DC (the pre-condo version of condominiums, common only in DC and NYC) that are air rights/land lease buildings where the units are privately owned though the ground they pay rent to be on belongs to the DC government. I suppose one could have privately owned condominiums or co-ops or even townhouses and detached houses (like Dewey Beach DE) that lease the land underneath them from the federal government. So one could shrink DC – geographically – and still have DC residents who even own their homes on 99 year leased parcels of federal land.

      1. WayneS Avatar

        Or the federal government could bite the bullet, do some takings for public use with just compensation, and the city part of DC could be done away with altogether.

        1. Yea but the people who own homes in DC – Nancy Pelosi at the Georgetown Waterfront condo at 30th and K, former Senator Claire McCaskill in a $2 million condo at 9th and H, the late Harry Reid in the Ritz-Carlton condos across the street from me on 23rd (I watched him go to work from my balcony), etc. have a lot of power. You will only be taking their homes (which I am all for) after you crush the deep state.

  3. Bob X from Texas Avatar
    Bob X from Texas

    Depopulate DC !!!!!!!!!!!!

  4. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    I think a tendency in BR is to take a snapshot of something then develop it into a major theme as if the snapshot is the firm and unchanging circumstance. We see this with respect to things that have changed with regard to the pandemic but it’s really folly to not see and understand that there is significant changes and evolution ongoing and taking a snapshot to develop a theme is risky business.

    talking about things like the homeless defecating or shooting cats as if they reveal some horrible truth about the degradation of society or a city… geezy peezy… Cities are big and messy places, no question but if you want extreme head to some 3rd world cities and compare.

    Are we arguing that cities are creations of liberals and doomed to anarchy or some such?

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      Gee, the human propensity to seek data to support preconceived notions was invented for Bacon’s Rebellion! And never happens on the liberal side of the ledger! You’ve got your boring predictable patterns, too, Larry.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        It happens both sides, yes but in BR, it often seems a primary behavior IMO on many blog posts that are so narrow and lacking context as to be the equivalent of conservative fairy tales and mythology.

        That’s why BR seems to attract a fair amount of comments to “correct the record”!

        The only relief we get is when Dick posts something!

        Sure liberals do this and I find it just as silly when they do but even Bacon has to admit at times that even the Post get’s it right – sometimes – shocking.

        1. Bruce Majors Avatar
          Bruce Majors

          You better get over to Redfin and tell them then. They have #DC as number 4 in the list of cities homebuyers are trying to flee https://www.redfin.com/news/q2-2022-housing-migration-trends/

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Yep, but your narrative of it being a _hithole city that people are fleeing , look at the other places with them on the outmigration.

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/735e7b0b2c518e4e71d8e110b5a149f71154cf2ec072af91aa522c8b060f8d0f.jpg

            See this is what I mean about snapshot. It’s not the whole story by a long shot!

            Are you also claiming people are fleeing these other places for similar reasons?

            These are major cities with high prices because people are willing to pay those prices to live and work there – AND the pandemic had some of them leaving to the suburbs to work remotely – which may or may not be a more long-term thing -we just don’t know, it’s ongoing.

            Right?

            I just think the narratives from Conservatives that people are fleeing the cities is predictable and largely bogus but they like to do it and do it with states also.

            Cities are where the jobs are, where companies like to locate because of the availability of large and educated labor pools.

            Rural Va and USA are where they largely are not.

            is that changing?

          2. That’s hilarious LarryG. You think DC should be proud to be in the exalted ranks of Seattle, LA, NYC etc? When I was a small child I also saw those places on TV and wanted to go live in them (and eventually did live in several). Everyone is leaving them now though, and their former residents do view them as shithole cities, and prefer to move to Austin, Nashville, or Miami. They are all run by Democrats who are doubling down on failed policies regarding crime, housing, and education. If I wanted to do something with data points that might just be a coincidence I would observe how at least 3 of these cities seem to have lesbian (or closeted lesbian) mayors. Apparently our victim card politics means that halfwits can rise to the top of their local Democrat Party as long as they are a “minority.”

            However, I didn’t use the world shithole, though I bet I could interview lots of DC residents who would. This morning on talk radio they are interviewing a woman who was harassed by a lunatic (a large white lunatic for those keeping scores) who screamed sexually explicit derogatory terms at her non-stop until her Metro train arrived. Adult men stood about and did nothing. She started crying. Someone told her to just leave the station since he would not stop. She told them she had to get to work. I don’t think you’ve explained yet why of all these Maryland and Virginia cities, including Richmond (which has similar demographics to DC, with large populations of all races), grew, while only DC (and Baltimore) shrank. Maybe DC isn’t a shithole city. It’s just a Baltimore city.

          3. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            Don’t waste too much time on Larry, he’s clueless but prolific. Same with Sherlock.

            Maybe part of the difference is that in Richmond the County across the river, Chesterfield, is no more attractive than the city. That is opposed to Arlington across the river from D.C. which is.

            D.C. local government has been a calamity forever. That does not help the city grow.

          4. WayneS Avatar

            “Clueless but prolific”.

            I like that. May I use it?

          5. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            Please do as long as you don’t point it at me:)

          6. I agree it is a calamity but I have to offer a small eulogy for one DC pol. When Obama was elected he and Durbin schemed to get rid of the DC Opportunity Vouchers, which grant a tiny number of students, mainly poor and not wealthy, a voucher to go to a private, or Catholic, or Muslim, school, a voucher worth about half of what DC budgets for kids attending government schools. For at least 2 years the program disappeared because of Obama’s opposition to school choice. I went to the protest to bring the vouchers back at Freedom Plaza downtown. The few people who were other than black who were there were white or Asian or Latin libertarians or tea party types I had told about the event (I invited some black friends too but they blended in to the 99% black crowd). I was looking at the stage and the line up of speakers, all (African American) parents, teachers, principals, community leaders. One gentleman, about 4 people back in the line, was someone whose face I knew, though he had on a scarf and a hat. I kept trying to figure out where I knew him from. Then it hit me. It was former Mayor Marian Barry. He was for school choice.

          7. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            “…prefer to move to Austin, Nashville, or Miami…”

            No Liberals there… smh….

          8. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            happens in most cities no matter who runs them.

            there are a lot of varying reasons what cities grow or shrink – way more things besides whether it’s blue or red governance.

          9. How old will you be when you can process new information and change your mind?

    2. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      Gee, the human propensity to seek data to support preconceived notions was invented for Bacon’s Rebellion! And never happens on the liberal side of the ledger! You’ve got your boring predictable patterns, too, Larry.

    3. So all the people leaving DC should be forced to return, and given re-education courses on how at least they don’t live in Zimbabwe?

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        if that were true….but it’s not. Your “interpretation” is one-sided and to serve a narrative that is not the whole context. Bad on you!

        1. What interpretation is that? I pointed out that DC is losing its population, unlike every other jurisdiction in the area except Baltimore. And that its ruling political class is not talking about it and seems to have no idea about how they may be causing it or how they would stop the bleeding. Are you just unhappy because you identify with DC’s political class and don’t like anyone pointing out what a bad job they do? Maybe you should move to DC. Only around 15-20% of registered voters actually show up and vote FOR them. They need you.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            when you say “ruling political class” you give away what you’re talking about. It’s a “tell” about your politics which are partisan and not objective.

          2. That’s just flatulent jargon. There are always people in power or incumbents, and the only “partisan” aspect of this article was to note that they haven’t even started to discuss the fact that the city’s population is shrinking and that their policies are likely responsible. Your knee jerk defensiveness as you identify with them and wish to protect them is the most partisan thing in this whole thread, and pretty much in all your comments on all posts, at least that I have ever read. I’m glad to see you at least pretend to read things from people who do not think just like you, but do you think your replies are persuading them?

  5. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    So context. This is what is happening to many if not most rural towns and cities:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9de98f28eb6b87dfa49db47d41164ba7c543a5d6f43500bf0a03705e7a2b1b81.jpg

    How does this relate (or not) to what is going on to businesses in the bigger cities?

    Rural Va/USA have their own set of problems in society similar to cities and their problems.

    It does not mean that we have “failed” in some philosophy of governance or society has gone to hell in a hand-basket. It means this is a fairly typical human condition that has to be addressed by citizens and governance.

    Making up Conservative fairy tales about the demise of civilization or responsible governance , etc, etc, ad infinitum is really just blather. Put some meat on those bones.

    1. Hey LarryG you began your comments here saying people at BR give us snapshots without context. Then you give us … a literal snapshot with no evidence. Maryland and Virginia each grew by 100,000 people in the same 3 years DC lost 50,000. In Maryland the urban areas either lost people (like Baltimore) or stayed static (Silver Spring, Bethesda, Takoma Park). So the 100,000 in Maryland did not go to the most urban areas. They either went to rural areas, or suburban areas, or they turned rural areas into suburban areas.

      Do you have any actual evidence that rural counties are losing population as quickly as DC is, or at all?

      Cities like DC SHOULD be able to attract population – they have jobs, nightlife, and other attractions. Rural areas mainly only have farms and the great outdoors. But some cities, like Baltimore and DC, are losing people. If one asks why DC politicians, and also it seems you, will do anything but answer the question.

      You should probably ask yourself about your defensiveness and fear of discussion.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I think what is happening to rural America is amply recognized… and I’m pointing it out as also happening at the same time the narrative about people fleeing cities is being promoted.

        Cities DO attract population but the also lose population but at the end of the day, cities do two things -the usually are job center and attract labor pools and some cities can become expensive places to live.

        It’s when you try to tie that to left or right politics, you go astray IMO. It’s been going on for quite some time through many administrations even when the party switches.

        What has happen to rural towns and cities is really quite widespread and longer term and is often accompanied by lower quality education that can make it hard for the kids to escape to the cities for jobs.

        1. Actually you have not presented any evidence that rural populations are losing population, especially in the last 3 years. You just put up a snapshot. I suspect this is like your belief that Seattle or LA are destinations people want to move to, and that DC is in great shape if it is in a list with them. These are things that might have been true in 1970 or 1980 or whenever you last learned a new bit of information.

  6. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    You talk about cities, cities, cities until you get to Richmond. Then, you shift gears to talking about a metropolitan area …

    “The Richmond metropolitan area grew from 1,105,000 to 1,128,000. From 2019 to 2022 …”

    Why?

    What was the population change in the CITY of Richmond from 2019 to 2022?

    1. Great question. I guess I am showing my DC/Nova perspective. I am very aware that the DC metro area has almost 4 million people even though DC is only 650,000. But I was using the same population wesbite as the soruce for ALL of my city population numbers, and it just said Richmond without making it clear it was the metro ares. https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/richmond-population

      But on another site just showing Richmond City numbers, it looks like Richmond (city) is still different from DC. DC lost significant population each year 2019, 2020 and 2021. Richmond only lost in the first year and then started growing again, from 226,000 to 233,000. https://www.populationu.com/cities/richmond-va-population

      DC still remains the outlier, the big loser, along with Baltimore.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        A better, more objective, less partisan way to look at this is MSA.

        There are very few cities that are not regional MSAs.

        Rural America has taken a lot of population loss hits but what does it really mean? Bad/liberal Governance? Nope.

        1. No Larry. I know you are desperate to absolve Democrat city councils from any blame, because in fact YOU are the most knee jerk and partisan person on this thread but MSAs are NOT the best way to look at this. When someone leaves DC because of DC Democrats’ crapulent policies, for a new home in Alexandria or Fairfax County or Spotsylvania, they may be in the “same” MSA and the MSA may even grow while DC shrinks. So what is informative is that DC shrank, which tells us people who could move did not like DC or its policies. You failed.

        2. No Larry. I know you are desperate to absolve Democrat city councils from any blame, because in fact YOU are the most knee jerk and partisan person on this thread but MSAs are NOT the best way to look at this. When someone leaves DC because of DC Democrats’ crapulent policies, for a new home in Alexandria or Fairfax County or Spotsylvania, they may be in the “same” MSA and the MSA may even grow while DC shrinks. So what is informative is that DC shrank, which tells us people who could move did not like DC or its policies. You failed.

        3. No Larry. I know you are desperate to absolve Democrat city councils from any blame, because in fact YOU are the most knee jerk and partisan person on this thread but MSAs are NOT the best way to look at this. When someone leaves DC because of DC Democrats’ crapulent policies, for a new home in Alexandria or Fairfax County or Spotsylvania, they may be in the “same” MSA and the MSA may even grow while DC shrinks. So what is informative is that DC shrank, which tells us people who could move did not like DC or its policies. You failed.

    2. WayneS Avatar

      Good question. I fund this:

      https://www.biggestuscities.com/city/richmond-virginia

      It indicates that the 2019 population (230,436) was higher than at any time since its peak in 1970. By 1980 there had been a significant drop, with a lesser decline over the next 20 years. Low point was 2000, after which there has been more or less steady but slow growth until 2020 & 2021 which showed very small declines.

      Overall, for the last twenty years, the City of Richmond has been within a few places on one side or the other of being the 100th largest city in the United States.

      Assuming the data at that website are accurate, of course.

  7. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    There is always a flux back and forth between the cities and the surburbs. Nothing new here. Of course, Haner is right Covid changed the dynamic significantly. The current shift is toward suburbs and exurbs.

    1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      Another for context… Please note the peak for DC population… about 1940ish… around about the time of the great migration and the white exodus began to the suburbs in response.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b6820e10f387490c3335c7735066a7d7475c75885c5b65460354a49085259bc0.jpg

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Yep, thanks. The snapshot folks also add anecdotal stuff to create something that is devoid of context to promote a viewpoint.

        Standard fare here in BR. It’s like a context to see who can do it the best.

        1. And yet you are always here, reading, and commenting. But do the comments persuade or inform?

      2. Bruce Majors Avatar
        Bruce Majors

        Actually I think the 1940 peak had to do with World War II. The War Department, now the Defense Department, imported a huge number of people to DC. A lot of DC’s (and NoVa’s) 2 and 3 story apartment buildings, now converted to condos, are a 1940s vintage. They were built to house war-related workers.

        DC actually never had white flight exactly. This is a common misconception. I was in charge of driving a group of Floridians to a wedding once, at the Russian Orthodox Church on 16th Street NW near Silver Spring MD, picking them up in Falls Church VA. I drove them almost entirely through Rock Creek Park and they were worried I was going the wrong way, since we seemed to be in a forest. “Where were the slums?” one asked. Specific DC neighborhoods like Columbia Heights – the neighborhood the alien goes to in the 1950’s “The Day the Earth Stood Still” to find the boarding house run by Patricia Neil Warren after he parks his saucer on the White House lawn – did go from white to black after the 1968 riots. But overall DC was the most African American – 70% – in the 1970s – and has been dwindling ever since, now below 49% African American. Middle class African Americans (among others) left DC for also African American majority Prince George’s County MD, where they could have safer streets and better schools, and still be a political majority. Recently another southern Maryland County, I believe Charles County, became majority black. The 1,000 employees a month the federal government has been importing to DC are mainly lawyers and other people with graduate degrees (or lobbyists who work to influence them). These federal imports can be almost any race, but they are likely less than 10% African American. So the federal government has been making DC whiter (and more Asian) and driving up rents and real estate prices. These imports may be the people deciding not to live in DC anymore, even though they once believed buying a home there was a wise investment. In the past, since the mid-90s, the fact that it was expensive did not deter them, as they expected substantial tax free capital gains when they sold their home. They no longer seem to believe the appreciation will happen, or that it is worth living near the museums, restaurants, and Metro stops. Something is driving them away. It’s difficult to believe it isn’t Mayor Bowser et al’s approach to crime, pandemics, and other issues.

  8. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    DC is an up & coming combination of a tourist attraction and industrial park — always has been. The kind of place where no parking space can be had between 9AM and 5PM and where in 1978, at 7PM I parked my car in a spot next to the WH entrance and asked the Secret Service agent at the guard house to “keep an eye on it.”

    The only place open after 8 was the Silver Dollar, and the clubs on K Street which was occupied by Johns, hookers and pimps, whose day jobs were lobbying.

    1. When I moved to DC in 1980, I had not figured out all the ways to drive to National Airport. I’d always drive over to 14th Street to take the 14th Street bridge. “Downtown” along 14th Street – where Google, and Blue Cross/Blue Shield, and the Trump Hotel, and many law firms, are now – was largely boarded up, and every block seemed to have an adult book store and a strip club with a naked woman’s outlines in flashing neon lights. That was all replaced with upscale commercial businesses. But now the population is leaving.

      1. WayneS Avatar

        Maybe it’s time to bring the old flashing neon naked women out of storage…

        1. The live version are still there all along Massachusetts Avenue near the Convention Center. I once went at daybreak to Logan Circle to meet a client and saw someone I thought was an Asian woman I know standing in the street. I wondered if she had had car trouble. Then a realized she had fishnet stockings and a short leather skirt and a bolero jacket. As I drove on every corner had two similarly dressed women, though they seemed to be “leaving work” and going home.

      2. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        It was 1978 and a friend who had lived up there took me to K Street for the “shows”. As we were walking he said, “You’re ugly if you don’t get propositioned within a block.” I turned on to the street and within seconds, I got my first “You need a date, Honey?”

        The “shows” reminded me a lot of Tiajuana.

        1. There are a couple of those places in existence around 18th and M.

    2. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      The 14th St corridor was hopping in the ’60s with lots of lights, glitter and loud music. We’d also get a block over on 13th St for good R&B. Funny being able to drive past the White House on Pennsylvania Ave as we did on the way from Georgetown to 14th St. Being able to park on the street there too, who’d a thunk it?

  9. James C. Sherlock Avatar
    James C. Sherlock

    We must assume that when the price for rental of those storefronts comes down enough that they will rent. Whether the new occupants will be as “high rent” as those departed is the question.

    Will Georgetown lose its exclusiveness? Has it already? Most of the people who pay to live there can afford to live anywhere. They thought they were buying lifestyle. Clubs, restaurants, shops within walking distance, “right-thinking” rich liberal neighbors. Georgetown University.

    Now, with the crime, it appears that lifestyle is disappearing. We have two friends in Georgetown that are approaching the decision to stay or sell from exactly that perspective.

    1. I’m sure Amazon also helped wipe out Georgetown, although a big part of that mix was restaurants and bars that served tourists like the people at the Four Seasons Hotel. Amazon actually opened a bricks and mortar Amazon bookstore on that stretch of M Street, near where a Barnes and Noble had gone under earlier.

      As a libertarian, I do not want to criticize your invocation of homo economicus. But as any good Austrian economist knows, all profit and income are not numerable in currency. People with MD’s move to America and become janitors because they don’t want their children conscripted, raped, or shot, even though the must live in poverty. People may leave DC as well for the same reasons.

    2. I’m sure Amazon also helped wipe out Georgetown, although a big part of that mix was restaurants and bars that served tourists like the people at the Four Seasons Hotel. Amazon actually opened a bricks and mortar Amazon bookstore on that stretch of M Street, near where a Barnes and Noble had gone under earlier.

      As a libertarian, I do not want to criticize your invocation of homo economicus. But as any good Austrian economist knows, all profit and income are not numerable in currency. People with MDs move to America and become janitors because they don’t want their children conscripted, raped, or shot, even though the must live in poverty. People may leave DC as well for the same reasons.

      Before the current wave of crime and police defunding under Mayor Bowser, Georgetown was already a little iffy in a way. The “east village,” east of Wisconsin Avenue, separated from Dupont Circle by Rock Creek Park and Rose Park, may have thought themselves luckier than the people in the “west village,” bordering Georgetown University. The GU students, even though wealthy and “elite,” also tended to get drunk and vomit and urinate (if not maybe as often defecate) on upper class sidewalks, yards, and front steps. There was a lot of local complaining about that. But it mainly happened at night. The huge mentally ill, drug addicted and homeless populations doing it now do it in every neighborhood and in broad daylight, and they do defecate, not just urinate.

  10. Warmac9999 Avatar
    Warmac9999

    Every major democrat run city has become increasingly unlivable. The democrats support the criminal and welfare classes at the expense of businesses and the working classes. People who can leave do – and the pandemic shutdown has taught everyone that a departure can be easily done and be relatively painless.

    In the DC area, the Mayor is also complaining about too many illegals. So add them into the criminal and welfare classes because they are a drag on the economy of DC at the very least.

    1. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      If she gets her way and routinely uses the D.C. National Guard as cops some of them will leave too.

    2. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      If she gets her way and routinely uses the D.C. National Guard as cops some of them will leave too.

    3. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      what’s the alternative to Democratic run cities? GOP-run cities? Fair enough, let’s gt some data together to support that idea.

      I’ll kick it off:

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dae5e3858c9a9b8a0ddf72f48d099ea97be5b3b741da0796ce32738211ac1ab3.jpg

      https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/most-conservative-cities

      so what makes these cities better?

      1. Lol. I am beginning to think you were educated in a school system run by Democrats. The cities in your map have people moving to them, not away from them. It doesn’t matter what you think about how wonderful Seattle or LA and DC are. Most people disagree with you and are moving to those cities.

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