Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Interstate 95: Kissing Good-Bye to the Solo Commuter?

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by

James A. Bacon
in

If your image of the typical commuter heading north up Interstate in the early morning is of a solo driver, then you think like I do. And the odds are, you don’t commute on I-95. Because if you did, you’d know differently. According to the “2006 Commuter Labor Study: Fredericksburg Region,” here’s how the ridership breaks down for Fredericksburg region commuters who head north on Interstate 95 in the morning:

  • Drive alone, 5%
  • Car-Van Pool, 22%
  • Slug, 27%
  • Train, 33%
  • Bus, 11%
  • Other 3%
I find the drive-alone numbers extraordinarily, even suspiciously, low. But get this — that 2006 study was largely consistent with a Virginia Department of Transportation study showing that about two-thirds of the trips heading north on a Fairfax County portion of the I-95 corridor were made in buses, vans or carpools.

Bob Burke uncovered both of those studies in an article posted today on the Bacon’s Rebellion website, “Life in the Fast Lane.” I had assigned him to investigate what the impact of the planned HOT lanes would be upon mass transit and shared ridership along the I-95 corridor. Hints in our previous coverage of HOT lanes suggested that the commuting population in the I-95 corridor was served by a large number of private vans and buses. Little did I imagine that shared ridership was so prevalent.

The Fluor Transurban HOT lane proposal will divert hundreds of millions in toll revenues over the life of the project to support mass transit and traffic demand management. But it’s hard to imagine how it would be possible to increase the shared-ridership market share above current levels. Even if vans, buses and carpools get to use the HOT lanes for free, it seems inconceivable that solo driving would drop below 5% market share. Indeed, you have to wonder if easing congestion might increase the level of solo driving!

On the encouraging side, though, if the number of people using vans, buses, carpools and rail outnumbers the solo drivers by 92% to 5% along stretches of I-95, the barriers to shared ridership aren’t nearly as high as many of us thought. Nationally, the percentage of people commuting to work alone in their own car runs around 88 percent (see Table 1 on page three). Just imagine the latent capacity that exists in Northern Virginia’s transportation system if I-95 commuting patterns prevailed on Interstate 66, the Dulles Toll Road and the Washington Beltway!
Update: In the comments section, reader Larry Gross says the survey responses do not remotely reflect his observations of solo ridership on I-95 in the Fredericksburg region. He suggests that the survey may have methodological flaws. I would have to agree.

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42 responses to “Interstate 95: Kissing Good-Bye to the Solo Commuter?”

  1. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Indeed, you have to wonder if easing congestion might increase the level of solo driving!”

    That was one of the results I saw in a study of HOT lanes recently. I can’t recall the source, but I think it was USDOT.

    Those numbers are fascinating, but it brings up the question of what next. When the transportation system is full and it is mostly multiuser vehicles, what then?

    If there are that many buses and vanpools using the HOT lanes for free, they may use up most of the capacity. Then where does the money come from?

    If users of multiperson mass transit are supporting other users of mass transit, who are we kidding about where the money will come from?

  2. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Jim Bacon:

    Bob Burke did a nice job with “Life in the Fast Lane.”

    Rick Hood’s comments and your post raise many very serious questions about the REAL impact of HOT lanes – but that is just the opening gambit…

    I put down my red pencil (working on revision of “Tyson’s Context”) to make a few points but there are far too many serious questions to address in the Blog format.

    The initial problem is achieving a Balance between the traffic generation of the Subregional human settlement pattern and the capacity of the mobility system.

    There is tragic irony in the juxtaposition of “Life in Fast Lane” with your earlier post “Stafford’s Slow Motion Suicide.”

    Add the reality of existing and planned settlement patterns in Spotsylvania, King Georges, Caroline, Orange and other parts the “commuter shed” including the Swiss Cheese parts of the City of Fredericksburg and the real picture comes into focus.

    Bob noted: “Transport decisions are being based in part on land-use projections that reflect what a locality [municipality] hopes to be…”

    The numbers indicate that Shirley Highway / I-95 is already doing a great job of getting people out of their solo cars IN THE CORRIDOR.

    But where are the solo cars? Parked in park and ride lots.

    Those cars (aka Autonomobiles) are needed to access the workers scattered homes (H) and the places they seek services (S), recreation (R) and amenity (A).

    The second most drastic error in the design and function of the National Capital Subregion’s METRO system is surrounding the stations with parking lots.

    Adding to commuter park and ride lots in the corridor as way to spend Fluor / Transurban’s money is a tragedy.

    There is irony here too: More park and ride lots will make the travel demand less susceptible to the “solution” of HOT lanes upon which Fluor / Transurban relies for its income.

    Oh yes and about the Vocabulary:

    With the data presented by Bob concerning where people live (H) and where they work (J), who in their right mind could call Greater Fredericksburg a “region?” Can you say “subregion?”

    (NB a Beta subregion can become a Balanced Community.)

    In the long run what must happen to achieve Balance and sustainablity in the Washington – Baltimore New Urban Reigons is more Js in the Greater Fredericks Subregion and more Hs, Ss, Rs and As to create Balanced Communites out of the Swiss Cheese that is within the Clear Edge (R=20 + / – )around the Core of the National Capital Subregion. In this context, the whole I-95 Corridor project is a way to insure ever more dysfunctional settlement patterns and ever more congested and costly Mobility and Access.

    EMR

  3. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    What is the alternative to more park and ride lots? More of Arlington, more METRO? Without the park and rides, where would VRE be? Riderless, that’s where.

    Take the total of all budget expenditures ever made by Metro and divide it by the total number of all passengers ever carried. I suspect you will come up with a number close to $20. And the entore system now needs a lot more money, just to keep it running.

    RH

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “….more Js in the Greater Fredericks Subregion….”

    Now you are talking sense.

    RH

  5. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    I would invite anyone to get on I-95 in Fredericksburg during morning rush hour and tell me that only 5% are solo vehicles.

    this IS laughable.

    the solo car problem is so bad that at the interchanges – the cars are backing up from the exits back onto I-95 in the evenings.

    guys.. do a little reality check here… if this was true the non-HOV lanes would be EMPTY.. and the HOV lanes would be bumper to bumper.

    I went down to HR/TW the other day. The leftmost lane is HOV-2 … the other lanes were chock-a-block and the HOV had one car per 1/4 mile or so.

    I looked over and sure enough virtually every car on I-64, and I-664 were SOLO cars.

    I looked through the referenced documents for the 5% and I cannot find it…

    can ya’ll point me to where it is?
    thanks

  6. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    …”Thequestionnaire was internet-based. The target market for the surveyswas those commuters who are experiencing the most burdensome
    commutes. In order to focus on this market, GMU students handed
    out business cards at VDOT park-and-ride lots and VRE stations in the morning commute times over a period of weeks.”

    page 2
    http://www.fra-yes.org/docs/Commuter_Labor_Study.pdf

    this is pretty scary… public policy decisions are apparently being based on this…

  7. Michael Ryan Avatar
    Michael Ryan

    Larry,
    If the survey was indeed skewed, that seems like good news to me. If solo drivers were really only 5%, then there is effectively little gain that can be made in reducing overall traffic volume. The best you could hope for would be to move people from 3-4 person pools into 10 rider vans, or even 40 passenger buses. But the easy savings are already done for.

    I’ll confirm what you say about HR traffic. We have nothing like effective mass transit here, but then again it would be going to where? Where is the “central” location people are trying to get to? At least in DC there is a core city, with several other distinct urban centers (Tyson, Rosslyn, Crystal City, etc.) Norfolk’s light rail is going to be a major embarrassment unless they get VB on board.

  8. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    ….”really only 5%, then there is effectively little gain that can be made in reducing overall traffic volume.”

    agree. If this was true than the entire concept of HOT lanes would be seriously called into question.. and rightly so

    and the proponents of HOT lanes could rightly be accused of misleading the public as to their purpose and function.

    with respect to solo commuting in general because ostensibly because there is not central core…

    isn’t this the “more places” condundrum?

    Isn’t this actually what would happen if you did scatter jobs regionally?

    The flaw in the “more places” idea if those “places” are still within commutable range in a region is that folks will STILL not live close to where their jobs is and STILL commute.

    Perhaps HR/TW is an example of the “more places” concept – in practice.

    let’s also separate out the morality/environmental aspect of this also.

    It really does not matter why people drive SOLO. It’s their own business as long as the congestion is acceptable to them.

    It’s when the congestion is not acceptable that the issue of who should pay for the additional rush hour capacity comes into play.

    Should very expensive rush hour capacity be shared proportionally by every driver regardless of whether they live closer to work and/or choose to not drive SOLO at rush hour?

    This is literally what HOT lanes are all about.

    If the congestion is “acceptable”, the current folks who drive SOLO should be just as happy as they are now driving on the non-HOV lanes at rush hour.. just as the folks I observed in HR/TW several days ago and the same folks on I-95 North that I try NEVER to be on the road with at rush hour and if I am.. it WILL be in the HOV lane.

    However, if congestion is NOT acceptable to the SOLO drivers..(and this would including worsening congestion) – then they do have a choice – the same choice that everyone has in terms of how they wish to get to work on a daily basis.

    If ‘more capacity’ is needed to yield less congestion – it HAS to cost money – AND the option that everyone has – is to pay their fair share of the extra available infrastructure.

    That’s what HOT lanes provide. You get your extra capacity and you pay your fair share of it.

    But then HOT lanes go one step further – they will offer you that extra capacity/less congestion option for FREE if you share a vehicle… in a half-dozen different ways….ranging from a simple-carpool to bus to transit.

    The only reasonable alternative to HOT lanes is to add the capacity and let everyone in the region and in the state pay higher gas taxes to fund the extra lanes… for a much smaller group of people that get the benefits of the increased capacity.

    Now.. we’ve moved from folks paying their own fair share to having others – who choose to live closer to where they work and/or not drive solo at rush hour.. having their gas taxes increased .. to help pay for additional rush hour capacity.

    Some will say that they still “benefit” because NOW they can also drive SOLO at rush hour and/or move further away from work.

    and you can see… how this trend..(called increasing VMT) is literally not sustainable because at some point… there is no more room for more roads.

    At that point which is where we are right now – your options are to manage the demand – in an equitable way such that each driver gets an equivalent share of the burden AND options to lessen the burden.

  9. Danny L. Newton Avatar
    Danny L. Newton

    I worked in Seattle in April 2000 and there was an interesting situation over HOV lanes. There was a proposal to eliminate them for the weekend. I could not believe the moaning and carping in the press versus the general attitude that it would be OK by most of the people I talked to. The bureaucracies fought the two day reprieve like demons. You would think someone just proposed using children for slowdown bumps.

    People are encouraged to report HOV violators by calling a number with the last four digits spelling out the word “HERO.” Apparently the cops are wise to the blow up fake people that can be purchased to make it look like there are more than two people in the car.

    HOV lanes have been a transportation failure for years. They just compress traffic to fewer lanes and thus make it more dangerous to drive. Even if they have to be tolled and turned into HOT lanes, everyone will be better off.

  10. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Isn’t this actually what would happen if you did scatter jobs regionally?

    The flaw in the “more places” idea if those “places” are still within commutable range in a region is that folks will STILL not live close to where their jobs is and STILL commute.”

    Actually, no. Whether the jobs are scattered regionally has NOTHING to do with whether people can or will choose to live near where they work.

    The benefit of scattering jobs is that some of the people will be traveling the opposite direction from others, or in cross directions. Using roads in both directions effectively doubles the ROI.

    You could also say that the idea of more places actually includes the idea of more places with centralized jobs, such as Fredericksburg could have.

    But neither of these situations hold in Norfolk/HR because of the geography of water, among other things.

    RH

  11. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I wonder if the 5% riding solo isn’t too low. Even for the ones riding solo inthe car pool lanes.

  12. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Should very expensive rush hour capacity be shared proportionally by every driver regardless of whether they live closer to work and/or choose to not drive SOLO at rush hour?”

    Where they live has NOTHING to do with rush hour. Ask yourself Where they are going and WHEN the need to be there.

    If everyone lived ten miles closer the radus of jam might be smaller but the jam itself would be the same: same number of cars, less space.

    RH

  13. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “That’s what HOT lanes provide. You get your extra capacity and you pay your fair share of it.”

    Nonsense. A complete lie. Congestion will still exist, and there will be very little extra capacity provided. The money will be siphoned off to pay for mass transit.

    RH

  14. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The main traffic issue IS the water situation

    50 and the Bay Bridge

    Woodrow Wilson Bridge

    American Legion Bridge

    14th street bridge

    No additional crossing from MD to VA

    All of these areas are major choke points of congestion and will remain. While I agree with the HOT proposal there is going to be major problems at the 14th street and American Legion Bridge chokepoints

  15. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “HOV lanes have been a transportation failure for years. They just compress traffic to fewer lanes and thus make it more dangerous to drive.”

    Actually this is not true. Even though HOV lanes appear to carry far fewer vehicles, in some places, like 95, they actually deliver more passengers than the other compressed lanes.

    They are a failure, however, at reducing congestions, whihc wecan all see still exists.

    “Even if they have to be tolled and turned into HOT lanes, everyone will be better off.”

    This much is true. The studies I have rad about HOT lanes suggest that they will actually reduce the number of car pools and increase the number of solo drivers. Drivers will prefer to pay the toll and drive alone. And, they will enable slightly more car trips so VMT will increase. This occurs primarily because there will be less overflow from the arteries to the surface streets.

    RH

  16. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    ….”reduce the number of car pools and increase the number of solo drivers.”

    this is truly funny….

    If you built additional capacity without tolls this is exactly what would happen.. and does.

    When you add ‘free” capacity, it encourages people to go back to SOLO driving.

    But how do you reconcile “more SOLO driving” … if the operators of the road will keep raising the price of the tolls to keep the road relatively uncontested?

    How do you think that would happen?

    don’t you think what would happen..is that more and more solo drivers drop out as the price gets higher?

    and you end up with LESS and LESS Solo Drivers?

    If you don’t see this..then I can certainly understand why you don’t see the rest of the logic with HOT lanes.

    HOT lanes ARE.. NEW Lanes… ADDITIONAL Capacity .. but NOT FREE

    got it?

    and if you are a driver and you want LESS (as opposed to NO) congestion, then with HOT lanes you CAN BUY a less congested ride – either with money or by using a multi-passenger vehicle.

    why exactly do you think this a lie?

  17. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    A few questions:

    1. Why can’t VDOT do this?

    2. Is the land needed for the additional lanes already available (i.e. owned by the government)?

    3. Is the Fluor Transurban proposal available in the public domain? If so, where?

    4. Has Fluor Transurban ever done this in an American city before?

    5. Isn’t this a tricky way to bigger government?

    5.1 VDOT used to build roads with tax money.
    5.2 Now, road capacity will be built by private companies and directly charged to drivers via tolls.
    5.3 No tax refunds or reductions are planned.

    Therefore, government will continue to collect (at least) as much as they have always collected only they will now provide less.

    This is a covert tax unless the overt taxes are reduced to reflect the lower costs of government associated with VDOT outsourcing road building to Fluor Transurban with drivers individually footing the bill.

    RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) like this since it is a hideen tax that frees up tax money for ill-conceived social programs instead of tangible road building programs.

    However, the lack of detail and secrecy around this Fluor Transurban deal seems suspicious. It’s almost like some people are constantly willing to take the Commonwealth at face value. I don’t know what to call these people. Maybe:

    Believe
    All
    Commonwealth
    Originated
    Nonsense

    And then there are those who argue just for the sake of argument. Maybe we should call them:

    Generating
    Ridiculous
    Oratory
    Venting
    Emotionally
    Tinged
    Odd
    Notions

  18. Michael Ryan Avatar
    Michael Ryan

    I was amused by a WaPo article some time ago describing how the HOT lane sensors would detect “cheaters”. They kept using that word. But, HOT lanes have no “cheaters” on them. There are those with the passengers to make passage free, and there are the SOLOs who pay to drive.

    They went on about how the technology could recognize a real face, separating the inflatable people, and presumably your labrador, from real passengers. I wonder how well such sensors would have classified me this morning with hat pulled low, scarf up to my nose, and hardly a square inch showing. Would they have recognized the car even had a driver? What will such sensors make of a hijab?

  19. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “….”reduce the number of car pools and increase the number of solo drivers.”

    this is truly funny….”

    It isn’t my idea Larry, it comes from an official government report, as I recall.

    “If you built additional capacity without tolls this is exactly what would happen.. and does.”

    It could be that BOTH of these are true. One does not preclude the other.

    RH

  20. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “If you don’t see this..then I can certainly understand why you don’t see the rest of the logic with HOT lanes.”

    No, youreally don’t get it. According to the report I read, what will happen is that some people who used to car pool will decide it is not worth the trouble and just pay the toll.

    This works great for the toll operators, because they get more money. If they raise the fare, as you sugggest, some toll payers will drop out, but that does not mean they will be replaced by car poolers.

    It goes right back to my old question which you never answered: do you operate the road for maximum income, or maximum throughput.

    RH

  21. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    1. Why can’t VDOT do this?

    Because VDOT does not have the up-front capital to do it and the state cannot afford to borrow that much money without affecting it’s bond rating.

    2. Is the land needed for the additional lanes already available (i.e. owned by the government)?

    at least on the Southern Portion:
    “..The BRT/HOT lanes are planned to be constructed in the median of I-95.”
    page 3 http://www.virginiadot.org/projects/resources/Tab%202.pdf

    3. Is the Fluor Transurban proposal available in the public domain? If so, where?

    Much of it is. a simple GOOGLE of
    “Fluor Transurban vdot HOT” will pull up a ton of info… take out the VDOT part and you’ll learn:

    Fluor-Led Highway Project Takes Top Honors in Roads & Bridges Magazine’s Top Ten Roads List

    Zumbro River Constructors’ TH 212 project for Minnesota DOT Ranks Number One

    http://investor.fluor.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=124955&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1055045&highlight=transportation

    4. Has Fluor Transurban ever done this in an American city before?

    see above

    5. Isn’t this a tricky way to bigger government?

    no.. where would the “more” be?

    5.1 VDOT used to build roads with tax money.
    5.2 Now, road capacity will be built by private companies and directly charged to drivers via tolls.
    5.3 No tax refunds or reductions are planned.

    Therefore, government will continue to collect (at least) as much as they have always collected only they will now provide less

    VDOT used to build AND MAINTAIN roads with the gas tax which has lost 40% of it’s value since 1984 and now generates only enough money to pay for maintenance.

    To date, few political leaders have been willing to raise the gas tax since about 70% of the public says they are opposed while 60% of the public indicates a willingness to pay tolls if the choice was tolls vs taxes.

    the B-A-C-O-N and G-R-O-V-T-O-N

    … Carefully Uttered Thoughts Extroidinare

    JAB indicated in the “Boxed In” thread that Prince William was between a rock and a hard place if they wanted to spend more for roads in that in they borrowed the money it would affect their bond rating.

    Virginia is in the same circumstance.

    They have _some_ capacity to borrow but no where near enough to build the backlog of needed roads..

    so Wall Street wants them to PAY for the new roads.. up front rather than borrow…

    so.. the options are.. raise the gas tax.. find private investors who have the up-front capital and/or both.

    Are there other options?

    Not that I can see and I’ve yet to hear another other bright ideas but anyone can offer new ideas. Go for it.

  22. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    I’m not sure how many HOT lane projects allow HOV for free… I’d have to check…

    but it definitely causes an enforcement problem… which we already have with just plain HOV.

    People WILL be motivated to cheat…no question in my mind.

    I think the answer if they don’t find a slick technological way will be to randomly pull over suspected cheaters and if they are burn them a new one… like a $100 for the first time… $200 for the next, etc…

  23. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Groveton has it exactly right.

    This is like the time Fauquier collected big proffers from Dominion for a new peaking plant. Then they used the money to buy up development rights, and claimed it didn’t cost the taxpayers anything.

    Naturally, the cost of the proffers was added to the electricity bills, and since Fauquier spent the money on conservation easments instead of other stuff, taxpayers paid more for other stuff.

    It actually cost taxpayers twice, but it was “off the books” so it appeared to be free.

    That is what is happening with HOT lanes, too. We are going to pay twice, and get little.

    RH

  24. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Oh yeah, and the Fluor proposal does not include the cost of the flyovers, which will be built at Government expense.

    RH

  25. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “since about 70% of the public says they are opposed while 60% of the public indicates a willingness to pay tolls if the choice was tolls vs taxes.”

    Of course. Because they know the tolls will be locational in nature, they figure they can skip out on the cost. They know the toll system won;t be fair or universal, so it offers more ways to game the system.

    RH

  26. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Virginia is in the same circumstance.”

    Essentially, the state of Virginia can’t borrow any more from savvy investors, so the state of Virginia will have Virginians loan it to them, more or less by force.

    But, the savvy investors don’t mind loaning money as long as they know it will be paid back. Once they understand that Virginia cannot squeeze any more money out of Virginians, then they will begin to worry, and that will affect your bod rating.

    RH

  27. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “Oh yeah, and the Fluor proposal does not include the cost of the flyovers, which will be built at Government expense.”

    this was not my understanding.

    have you got a cite for this?

  28. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    It came from here on the blog, I think.

    The original proposal had the Hot lanes merging across the regular lanes to exit.

    RH

  29. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I thought HOT was supposed to stand fro High Occupancy or Toll.

    If you need a carpool AND pay the toll, that will definitely kill it.

  30. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    I’m pretty sure that Fluor will pay for all the infrastructure including the flyovers and pass that cost onto the folks that pay tolls.

    and as far as I know.. there are no plans to charge tolls to HOV and I’d agree.. that would have serious implications for public acceptance.

    but think about this… not all multi-passenger vehicles are created equal either.

    4 cars with 3 people each (12 people) will take up the same footprint as a 40 passenger bus…even if it is only half-full.

    you know the absolutely most challenging part to participating in this blog?

    It’s that danged word verification… sometimes it takes me 3 tries to get it correct.

  31. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    http://www.virginiadot.org/news/newsrelease.asp?ID=CO-0742

    “Key aspects in the agreement require Fluor-Transurban to:

    Finance and build a 14-mile stretch of HOT lanes (two lanes in each direction) on the Capital Beltway, based on a fixed-price, fixed-time design-build contract. Construction is expected to last 5 years (see map at http://www.virginiadot.org/projects/HOT_ 95.asp”)

    Finance and build three new access points from the Beltway into Tysons Corner, build HOV connections from I-95 to the Beltway (known as Phase VIII of the Springfield Interchange), as well as reconstruction and improvements to many existing bridges, traffic lanes, overpasses, interchanges, and signs

    Finance about $1.3 billion of the $1.7 billion project costs

    Manage and fund all operations and maintenance of the HOT lanes including major repairs and rehabilitation

    Collect tolls from non-HOV vehicles. Tolls will vary and be based on the level of congestion in the HOT lanes. During rush hours, the average trip cost is expected to be $5.00 to $6.00, and Fluor-Transurban must ensure free flow traffic conditions in the HOT lanes.

    Ensure that HOV vehicles, transit and commuter buses travel for free

    Return the HOT lanes to the Commonwealth in good order at the end of the agreement.”

    ——————————-

    This makes it appear that Fluor will do the flyovers, but I’m certain I heard otherwise. Maybe that is where the 0.4 billion goes: Fluor is doing it but we are paying for it.

    Fluor is required to keep free flowing traffic on the lanes and accept HOV vehicles for free. What happens if HOV vehicles take up all the capacity?

    What does free flowing mean? You can have free flowing traffic at 45 mph and move a lot more vehicles than you can at 60 mph.

    “4 cars with 3 people each (12 people) will take up the same footprint as a 40 passenger bus…even if it is only half-full.”

    What planet do you live on? Remind me never to have you following me. ;-).

    RH

  32. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “Fluor is doing it but we are paying for it.”

    oh you mean if VDOT did all of this, that we’d not be paying for it?

    Ray.. I don’t know how to break this to you – but we pay – either way.

    You’re convinced that we pay less if we let VDOT build and operate new roads.

    But where is the money Ray. Show me the money.. for VDOT to do that…

    Virginia .. essentially can borrow maybe 3 billion dollars with a 30 year payback… unless it …

    1. raises taxes
    2. allow investor-built roads

    3. – name your poison .. got a suggestion?

    is 3. “tax&spend” ?

  33. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Brief note on Larry Gross’ observations and Jim Bacon’s note at the end of the post:

    The Shirley HOV lanes have for 25 years been the most effecient lanes of asphalt “in the Free World.” (You can tell from the Vocabulary how long ago that determination was made and it is still true.)

    The images showing the number of cars that one bus, one three car tram and one eight car Heavy Rail shared vehicle system can replace are overpowering.

    We have done some back of the envelope surveys of I-66 HOV – 2 lanes. It surprising how many people actually get to VA Route 234 Bypass from VA Route 243 (Vienna, Fairfax, GMU METRO) via the HOV lane vs the other three, especially when the three “free” lanes come to a crawl as happens almost every day.

    The SOVs from the North Anna River to Quantico may include a lot of drivers who:

    Work at Quantico or South of Quantico.

    Go to a park and ride and catch VRE, Bus, Vans Car Pool or Slug lines.

    Anyone going a far as the Occoquan or beyond knows they better be in a shared-vehicle by then but they may not start out that way in Spotsy.

    The details of the survey should answer the questions, I am just noting some reasons why looks may be deciving.

    If the numbers are anywhere near right, HOT lanes as currently concieved are another joke.

    One last point the Shirley Lanes have been there for year and many job and house decisions were made based on them. Short term surveys may not be a good indication of what will happen in the future.

    Market value of dwellings (H) near Jobs (J) are a better indicator of preference and they say” “put the houses and jobs close together.” More on this re “Critical Mass” soon.

    EMR

  34. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “oh you mean if VDOT did all of this, that we’d not be paying for it?

    Ray.. I don’t know how to break this to you – but we pay – either way.”

    Agreed, or at least the toll payers will pay, but you are changing the subject. Anyway, as Groveton points out VDOT could do the same as Fluor and it isn’t clear that the Fluor plan will be cheaper. It is just a matter of financing, who pays for what, and the politics of whether a private toll is just an off the books additional tax.

    My understanding was that the in the original proposal Fluor would fund the entire plan, but it did not include flyovers: drivers would have had to merge across the other traffic to exit. Now it appears that it does include Flyovers but Fluor is not paying the whole bill. I could be wrong, I don’t know the facts here, it’s just what I recall.

    Therefore, other people, who do not benefit from the toll road will be paying $0.4 Billion of its costs. Unless the tolls are set to recoup the state’s “investment”.

    Those that do use the roads will be paying the tolls, the profit to Fluor and its investors, and something to the state which will probably be used to fund mass transit, on top of their own user costs.

    RH

  35. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “put the houses and jobs close together.”

    Just not all in one place.

    And we can do that by moving jobs and by moving houses. While we are at it, put the jobs and the houses and the open space near each other.

    RH

  36. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “The images showing the number of cars that one bus, one three car tram and one eight car Heavy Rail shared vehicle system can replace are overpowering.”

    It’s the can part that is deceiving. Most of those modes carry no where near full loads, so the images are a deception. It is also a deception to say the cars are replaced. As you point out, they are in the park and rides.

    ——————————

    It is surprising how many people travel via the HOV lanes. The popular perception is that they are a failure, which they are not.

    Neither are they a complete success. The HOV lanes are underused. One way to get more use is to allow (some) others to use them, convert them to HOT lanes. There is still the problem of how do you get OFF the lanes once you arrive at an already crowded destination. There are many places where the HOV’s suffer the same congestion as the other lanes because of this.

  37. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “VDOT could do the same as Fluor and it isn’t clear that the Fluor plan will be cheaper. It is just a matter of financing,”

    Ray – did you read this:

    …”$3 Billion in New debt. Kaine has proposed issuing a total of $3.2 billion in new debt — again, according to the Republican leadership. While the higher ed initiative in particular has merit (see previous post), there are limits to how much the state can prudently borrow. The added debt would bring the Commonwealth “to the brink of its debt capacity limit,” (from BR “Begging and Borrowing to the Point of Being Reckless”)

    So tell me again WHERE VDOT will get the money?

    HELLOooooooo… Ray,,.. I’ve pointed this out more than twice…

    are you listening?

    Virginia does not have the borrowing capacity to build the HOT lane project without sucking up quite a bit of Virginia’s remaining debt capacity and guess what.. we’re not going to do that.

    Now come back and tell me again what our options are after you subtract out the VDOT option…

    taxes?
    Hot lanes?
    ???? name your poison

    hello?

    hello?

  38. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Like you said, we are going to pay for it one way or another.

    Virginias borrowing capacity is rlated to its ability to pay back. That is related to the revenue they get. If the lender think Virginia is serious about raisng the money (no new taxes), the lending will be available.

    Virginians are going to pay revenue to Fluor or to Virginia. If it comes down to taxes or hot lanes, hot lanes will put a bigger burden on a fewer number of people, but much of virginia benefits from the redistribution of NOVA Wealth.

    Fluor lives in Australia. Where would you rather send or lend your money, the state or a foreigner?

    Why can’t VDOT issue bonds and sell them on the open Market, like Fluor? Isn;t that more or less how Rte 28 was rebuilt?

    RH

  39. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “Why can’t VDOT issue bonds and sell them on the open Market, like Fluor? Isn;t that more or less how Rte 28 was rebuilt?”

    what would be offered to investors if VDOT defaulted?

    this already happened on the Pocahontas Parkway in Richmond and Fluor had to bail them out.

    Do you REALLY want VDOT involved in financial issues given their past historh with finances?

    I thought you’d appreciate this quote:

    “There is a consensus among economists that congestion pricing represents the single most viable and sustainable approach to reducing traffic congestion.”

    http://www.virginiahotlanes.com/hotlanes/inunitedstates.html

    “Similar variable charges
    have been successfully utilized in other industries – for example,
    airline tickets, cell phone rates, and electricity rates.”

    page 3
    http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/congestionpricing/congestionpricing.pdf

    Now.. how come you were not taught this in Economist School and how come your Environmental Economists don’t say this also?

  40. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Those other industries have viable competition. Hot lanes won’t.

    I agree that (properly managed) congestion pricing will relieve congestion. I do not believe the HOT lanes will. I also beleive that congestion pricing will cause businesses and people to move, or decline to come.

    We don’t have enough good examples of congestion pricing in practice that are fully studied. The London system uses an extensive system of cameras, rather than electronic tolling or GPS. As a result the costs of operating the system are high. In addition the city made a substantial investment in improving bus service.

    The amount of congestion reduced is subject to various interpretations. Expressed as a change in the time above free flow conditions the reduction in congestion has been reported as high as 30%. But now,if you have to take the (much slower) bus, your time savings may be negative.

    After you add up the costs of operation, the value of less pollution, the time saved(or not), the extra bus service, the revenue to the contractor/operators, and the revenue to the city, minus the costs to those that provide the revenue, it isn’t clear that it is all that huge a public benefit, but that doesn’t mean it might be better someplace else.

    Incidentally, not all economists have joined that consensus. It does make economic sense when modeled on a macro level. But, some economists point out that unlike some other commodities like cell phones, travel is a derived demand: you travel because you need to go get something else. As a result, all the drivers that cause travel are not accurately considered in a macro model. some economists are studying these factors at a more detailed level, and they suggest that we may need a package of different kinds of incentives and disincentives to get a system that really works well: efficiently, and fair.

    RH

  41. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “congestion pricing will cause businesses and people to move, or decline to come.”

    HEY!

    is that the “more places” argument that you and TMT and Groveton have been arguing?

  42. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Many questions about the HOT lane project in terms of what will and will not be done.

    Here’s a concise summary:

    1.4 Billion Dollars

    Fluor will build it
    Transburan will operate it

    The project includes improvements and replacement of a significant portion of the aging infrastructure along a 14-mile stretch of the Capital Beltway in northern Virginia. In addition to improving the existing roadway, Fluor and Lane will construct four, new HOT lanes in the center section of the interstate. Vehicles with three or more passengers, buses and emergency vehicles will use the HOT lanes at no charge. Drivers with fewer passengers can choose to pay a variable toll to use this new express service. Existing free lanes will adjoin the HOT lanes.

    The project will include:

    — Two new lanes in each direction from the Springfield Interchange to just north of the Dulles Toll Road;

    — First-time introduction of HOV to the Beltway and Tysons Corner;

    — Congestion-free network for transit service on the Beltway;

    — Replacement of more than $250 million of aging infrastructure, including replacement of 42 bridges and overpasses;

    — Upgrades to 11 key interchanges;

    — Construction of more than 70,000 linear feet (13 miles) of soundwalls to double existing protection for local neighborhoods;

    — Construction of Springfield Interchange Phase VIII to create a seamless HOV network on I-95/395, Capital Beltway, I-66, the Dulles Toll Road and future HOV lanes on Braddock Road;

    — Improved connection at I-66 to improve traffic flow onto the Beltway; and

    — Three new access points to the Capital Beltway at Rt. 29/Lee Highway, Westpark Bridge and Jones Branch Drive.

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/industries/real-estate/article/fluortransurban-consortium-vdot-sign-contract-design-build-operate-i495-hot_416512_17.html

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