Inexplicable — What Could Be Causing the Surge in Violence?

Portsmouth resident Ebony Pope was hospitalized after being struck by random gunfire. Still suffering from some nerve damage and pain with digestion, she avoids crowds and standing by windows. Photo credit: Daily Press

by James A. Bacon

Wow, you know the crime surge is getting bad when the wokest newsroom in the Commonwealth — which apologized for the whiteness of the reporters writing a series about continued racial segregation in Hampton Roads — starts publishing articles about it.

What’s hilarious about today’s article in The Virginian-Pilot is that reporters and the experts they quoted are baffled about what might be causing the crime wave. Could it be tied to COVID? High unemployment? Social anxiety? Too much free time? It’s such a mystery!

The numbers are clear enough. Sentara Norfolk General, the region’s Level 1 trauma center “pulled out more bullets, stitched more stab wounds and treated more assault victims than in recent history,” the Pilot tells us. In 2020 — a year mostly spent in lockdown, the article notes — the hospital saw 38% more violence-related trauma patients than the year before. Patients with gunshot wounds jumped from 328 to 466. That may be just a bad weekend by Chicago standards, but its a stark reversal from two or three decades of declining violence in Hampton Roads.

The numbers for 2021 — a year when COVID receded and the lockdown eased, I would add — are even worse.

“We did not anticipate this at all,” said Dr. Jay Collins, chief of trauma at Norfolk General and a surgery professor at Eastern Virginia Medical School. “In the last year, we’ve had a huge jump, and I personally don’t think it’s just COVID. It seems like we’re seeing more assault-type weapons.”

Hmmm. Collins doesn’t think it’s “just COVID.” That’s very astute, considering the fact that the spike in violence is not occurring uniformly across the country but is concentrated in big cities and somehow seems to afflict, in the Pilot’s words, mainly “Black men in their 20s.”

Could the jump in violence be attributable to assault weapons? The semi-automatic rifles, the article explains, “spit out ammunition at high velocity” and sometimes use bullets that explode into pieces on impact. “It’s in some ways like getting shot with several bullets, even though you were only shot with one,” the newspaper quotes Collins as saying.

Curiously, though, while an increase in the use of assault weapons might explain the severity of the bullet wounds, it would not explain the increase in the number of shootings.

The Pilot also quotes Christina Mancini, a Virginia Commonwealth University professor, who subscribes to the idle-hands-are-the-devil’s-playground school of criminology. Violent crime tends to be committed by younger men and boys. Because of the pandemic’s impact on schools and social activities, many have less to do. “Combine lost jobs, free time, bills to pay and a whole lot of anxiety, that can lead to trouble,” Manicini said.

Oddly, the violence continues on the upswing even as people go back to work, have less free time, have more money to pay their bills, and experience less economic anxiety. Criminologists will likely “puzzle” over the recent uptick for a while, the Pilot opines.

If only there were something to explain the fact that the number of black murder victims in Virginia jumped by 97, while the number of whites increased only 20, and the number of “others” actually decreased in 2020. Could something have happened  — changes in political rhetoric, stories in the media, new laws to reduce mass incarceration, changes in police practice, ANYTHING — that might have increased the level of social turmoil in African-American communities?

I’m drawing a blank. I can’t think of a thing.

Maybe The Virginian-Pilot eventually will figure it out for us.


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55 responses to “Inexplicable — What Could Be Causing the Surge in Violence?”

  1. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    I’m noticing the idiots raising hell on airplanes these days and the others attacking store clerks over covid rules and surge in threats that public officials are receiving to the point where more and more of them are having to have security teams. From local elected people all the way up to health officials, Congressmen, and even the VP.

    What’s going on with that?

  2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    3.5 million National Instant Background Checks in April. A new record.
    Smith and Wesson doubled sales last year to 1.1 billion dollars. There could be a correlation with current crime and civil unrest.

  3. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Oh, all kinds and manner of things contribute… but certainly NOT readily available guns.

    1. Why hasn’t violence, murders, assaults, etc gone up in Wyoming where every vehicle has at least two firearms in it, most of which go unlocked while the driver is away?

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Mean distance between particles.

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            You’re right. It doesn’t because Wyoming is a perfect vacuum. It sucks.

            Rural Virginia. Stumbled on a meth lab… every 3rd driveway.

          2. Brian Leeper Avatar
            Brian Leeper

            I don’t think any Virginian needs to be talking about how much other states suck.

  4. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    There is something weird going on with the data. Norfolk Sentara reported it had 466 patients with gunshot wounds. The folks at the hospital apparently are seeing a lot of victims of assault-style weapons. However, in the State Police report, Crime in Virginia, the 2020 data for Norfolk shows 4 murders and 14 aggravated assaults. Unless all those gunshot victims shot themselves, there is a major disconnect here. I am going to check with an analyst at the state, whom I know and who works with this crime data extensively.

    1. I’m not sure what you’re looking at, but I see 49 murders for Norfolk. Page 239: https://www.vsp.virginia.gov/pdf/Crime_in_Virginia/Crime_In_Virginia_2020.pdf

      Also, make sure you make apples-to-apples comparisons. Norfolk General Hospital treats gunshot victims from numerous jurisdictions.

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        Dammit! I ignored one of my rules of thumb–if data does not look right, it probably isn’t.

        I had scrolled too far in the Crime in Virginia report and was looking at the statistics for the State Police in the individual localities. I apologize.

        I had thought about the possibility of Sentara Norfolk treating patients from other jurisdictions. Looking at the correct set of data, I compared the combined numbers of murders and aggravated assaults for Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach. There are some interesting results. The total number went up significantly from 2019 to 2020 for Norfolk. However, for Portsmouth, the total number was virtually the same for the two years. And, in Virginia Beach, the 2020 number was lower than in 2019 and , in fact, lower than 2018. Hard to draw general conclusions from this set of data

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Maybe if the CDC were allowed to gather gsw data….

        2. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          I think it’s the modern-day partisan version of “counting coup”! 😉

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counting_coup

  5. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    I was recently moved by comments by the great explainer (Bill Clinton). If I understood, he was asked about the Jan 6 riots on the Congress. Instead of blaming Repubs, he said “better get used to it” if we want to have a divisive society, like we actually do have.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      As violent as that Jan 6 crowd was, there were no firearms. That, to me, has always been the clearest sign that some serious advance planning and discipline was behind the effort. And guns were certainly readily available to all of them….

      The perception has to be that the calculus has changed, and perpetrators have decided the cost of using firearms is lower than it used to be. They seem to have less fear of being caught or being punished, and perhaps the statistics Dick points to demonstrate that to be correct. Lots and lots more gunshot victims than criminal charges….

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I thought this a bit of a curious analysis since we have well seen guns in places like Richmond and Charlottesville and in Michigan and many other places.

        Jan 6 is actually almost unique in that regard. It’s as if they knew if they brought guns, really, really bad stuff would ultimately befall them…they just came to make a point.

        Guns associated with affiliated groups as opposed to individuals not affiliated with political groups – rather as individuals or associated with gangs or organized crime are different.

        REAL criminals – the ones that make no bones about it, can get their hands on even much more lethal weapons than semi-auto AR-15s. You can still find full auto Mac-10s if you are seriously into illegal behavior.

        Down a notch from them are all manner of yahoos who can get themselves an AR-15 with a high-capacity magazine and inflict mayhem because they’re having a mental issue. We see that as a “right’.

        The FBI is not having trouble with these distinctions, by the way – they do know.

        Some folks just want to play “military”. Others are dead serious about their intentions.

        1. WayneS Avatar

          “Down a notch from them are all manner of yahoos who can get themselves an AR-15 with a high-capacity magazine and inflict mayhem because they’re having a mental issue. We see that as a “right’.”

          No one sees inflicting mayhem on others as a right. You are a hyperbolic liar.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            truth-teller for sure.

            Would-be mass killers get their guns per their “rights” then go off to kill as many as they can. We hear it almost every week.

            nothing hyperbolic about it, just the awful reality.

            No other developed countries have this trend.

        2. Hands and Feet killed more people than ALL RIFLES combined according to the latest FBI Crime data — that trend has stayed constant for decades.

      2. WayneS Avatar

        A four word solution: Bring back Project Exile.

        1. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Take Forth Exit Projectile.

  6. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Any thoughts on the mass killings of late? Seems like it’s getting to be a fairly regular thing in the USA and Virginia, it’s share and few perpetrators that are people of color.

    We seem to be unique in the civilized world. We actually rank with the 3rd world countries on violence and guns rather than the other developed countries.

  7. Steve Gillispie Avatar
    Steve Gillispie

    Or anti-white hate rhetoric from the politicians and media — see Don’ Lemon’s latest insightful opinion –; laws and rhetoric justifying criminality from shoplifting to rioting, arson, and murder……..

    It’s a tough topic, though, as it goes to the heart of the profoundly wrong liberal views of what ails society – such that I expect this post will generate its usual dribble of snide scorn and inane non-sequiturs from name-hiding ankle biters.

  8. WayneS Avatar

    “Could the jump in violence be attributable to assault weapons?

    No. The number of documented assaults with rifles was the same (15) in 2020 as in 2019 – and that’s all kinds of rifles. Overall shootings were up, but the increase was mostly by criminals using handguns.

        1. What’s really interesting is when you take out of the US numbers from the major Democratically run cities — the US drops way down the list – by a lot. Chicago is more dangerous that many ‘war zones’ — just this past weekend 8 killed, 48 wounded. Not a word from BLM.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            That would likely be the same for Brazil and Mexico and other countries also, right?

            Beyond that, why do other developed countries in Europe and Asia not have much lower crime rates in cities or rural compared to us?

        2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
          James Wyatt Whitehead

          The CCP of China has announced that witnesses to Uyger Concentration Camps and Genocide are all paid actors. Glad Xi has cleared that up. Would hate to add dark red to Mr. Larry’s map.
          http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202106/19/WS60cd23f3a31024ad0baca156.html

      1. Stephen Haner Avatar
        Stephen Haner

        I still suspect the incredible level of violence in video games and even mass media, dehumanizing the impact, but what do I know…..Advocates spend trillions on media because they know it has no impact….(uh, not.) Stumbled on a bare-knuckle cage fight on some cable channel and it made the Marquis of Queensbury look like a cub scout with one arm. Vicious.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          I would not disagree altogether but point out again that other developed countries don’t seem to have the same level of violence that we do.

      2. WayneS Avatar

        Once again you post a response which is not relevant to the comment made.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          Really? Perhaps in your view, eh?

          If you want to talk about crime in cities, it’s the same around the world. More crime where there are more people living together, no matter the governance.

          That’s relevant IMHO, maybe not yours.

          or did you have some other point?

          1. WayneS Avatar

            My ONLY point was that the increase in shootings was not attributable to “assault” rifles.

            I did not deny that there had been an increase in shootings and I did not speak to “crime in cities”. Those issues are irrelevant to my comment.

            I’m sure that was clear to pretty much everybody who read my comment, except you.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            What I responded to was the increase in mass killings of which quite a few did seem to involve assault weapons with high capacity magazines, ergo more killings per assault because of the more deadly nature of assault weapons with high capacity magazines.

            I thought you said 15 and no increase.

            The chart seemed to show an increase.

            I know you disagree. You have that right. I have a right to make that point even if you think it not relevant, I do.

            Can you provide a cite from a credible sources for your assertion:

            ” No. The number of documented assaults with rifles was the same (15) in 2020 as in 2019 – and that’s all kinds of rifles. Overall shootings were up, but the increase was mostly by criminals using handguns.” ?

            It was the 15 I was skeptical of, ergo, the chart.

            are we now thoroughly down in the weeds – AGAIN? ?

            Here’s a thought – address the point and do not personalize it. Just deal with the words and issue and make YOUR point without going to the person.

            I’m fine with debate and if you can make your point with real data that contravenes my point, I will acknowledge it but when you personalize it, I wonder about your motives in the first place.

            You have a habit this way. Not sure what it bothers you so in the first place, but at any rate – do your cites, deal with the issue not people.

  9. Wahoo'74 Avatar
    Wahoo’74

    You nailed it Jim, as usual. Yes, “probably not COVID.” Duh.

    How about slashing police department budgets, falsely accusing the majority of white cops of possessing inherent racism, and electing prosecuting attorneys who won’t prosecute criminals? Violent crime up here in Baltimore is at historically high levels, and it was already godawful the past 5 years since the Freddy Gray riots.

    The media and selective medical, academic, and political “elites” (sic) seem to have lost any semblance of logical objectivity.

    1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      Please tell us which Virginia localities have “slashed” police department budgets and which Virginia prosecutors will not prosecute violent crimes.

    2. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      as they say, a picture is worth a thousand words:

      https://mronline.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/yjmyhmyhm.png

      all those other words , like “Baltimore” or black on black killings, etc… don’t hold a candle to that picture.

      1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead

        How about this picture. Worth at least a hundred words? Dragged from their vehicle and shot. 1 dead another critically injured. For what? Driving by with the flag of Puerto Rico.
        https://usareally.com/uploads/2021/06/20/full-screenshot-20210620t205304295-1624211591.png

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          not good either but lacks the import of the Floyd photo. The Floyd photo changed a LOT of minds and it’s ongoing. Laws have been changed. Institutions have changed policies. Street violence from yahoos for stupid reasons is just not the same.

          1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            I suppose you are right. 5 dead and 54 wounded in Chicagoland on Juneteenth. No comparison.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Chicago has always had gangland killings, no? Remember Elliot Ness? Bad guys killing each other is not seen the same by many as a Cop actually intentionally murdering an unarmed person on camera. No?

            When people don’t trust the police, that breeds crime, no?

          3. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            Well 363 CPD officers have retired since January. That’s good. No?

            No police and trust returns. Right?

          4. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            pretty sure not that simple but good news is that finally people recognize it that we need the police AND we need the trust.

          5. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            Here here

          6. So you’re saying people don’t care about violence against Puerto Ricans…. terrible that violence is approved for different shades of melanin — Do you have a copy of the spectrum of acceptable victimness?

          7. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Nope. Most folks care about any/all violence, but violence from cops is especially egregious and undermines peoples trust in the police as an institution – a much worse proposition than ordinary crimes.

            It’s not a binary thing. it’s wider and proportional.

          8. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            Don’t forget a federal holiday, Juneteenth would have never have happened without the Floyd tragedy. He has a statue in Newark too. Indeed things have changed.

          9. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Indeed. But we still can’t resist talking about law & order (public school, single parents, academics, in racial terms even as we complain that “liberals” see everything in racial terms.

            Clearly, BR is obsessed with race.

  10. Novel idea – put criminals in jail and keep them there.
    If you dig more into shooting data and stories you will find the vast majority are committed by known and recently released criminals with a history of firearm crimes.

  11. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    After about 20 years with dealing with crime statistics, I learned that one needs to be careful with them and be willing to dig a little bit. For example, the state reports violent crime “offenses”. For offense, it reports “1” regardless of multiple victims. Therefore, if there really is an appreciable increase in the number of assault style weapons used, an increase from 328 gunshot wound patients to 466 could represent an increase in the number of people shot without necessarily representing an increase in the number of people doing the shooting. That does not help those additional people that were shot, but it could shed some light on the nature of increased violence: are there more violent incidents or are the relatively same number of incidents resulting in more victims?

    Therefore, before we speculate on the causes of the supposedly increased violence, we need to figure out what we are dealing with. For example, we do not know if there has been an “increase in the number of shootings” as claimed in the post. From the VP article, we only know there has been an increase in the number of gunshot patients. (One shooting could result in multiple patients.)

  12. “From a surgeon’s perspective, it’s not just a volume issue — violent injuries are getting harder to treat. Assault weapons, used in more cases Collins has handled, spit out ammunition at high velocity with more kinetic energy. Some bullets are designed to explode into pieces upon impact. It’s in some ways like getting shot with several different bullets, even though you were only shot with one,” Collins said.

    This guy is showing his complete ignorance of firearms.

    1. How does he know from the bullet it was a semi-automatic rifle [Assault weapons is a grossly inaccurate term and consistently misused]?
    2. Many firearms have a high velocity — including bolt action and lever action rifles as well as sidearms.

    3. Many sidearm ammunition is designed to fragment… in fact many more defensive pistol rounds compared to rifle rounds are designed as such.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      60 minutes had a segment on the difference in ammunition. There is a difference.

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