Adam Smith is smiling.
He never did like Tiger Riders, always believed in that invisible hand.
Since 1973 – when I started paying careful attention (and when our Household made decisions to cut non-renewable energy consumption at the Household scale) – every time there has been a jump in fuel prices or lines at the gas stations citizens have changed their habits.
This time is no exception. Yesterday’s headline at the top of WaPo Page 1 reads: “At $4 a Gallon, Rethinking Cars’ Reign.” In a CNN poll, most expect fuel shortages. “$5 a gallon by Fall” is the word on the street and Congress just gave speculators a green light.
Over the same 35 years, every time some one suggests that:
• Industrialized nation-states have to rethink dependence on Large, Private Vehicles for Mobility and Access there has been a chant about Americans loving Autonomobiles, or
• A fair allocation of the cost of location-variable goods and services, the Tiger Riders talk about the inelasticity of gasoline prices, the prospect of cheap alternative fuels and unending supplies inexpensive energy.
These smokescreens are just part much larger and more important deceptions related to the trajectory of civilization.
In December of 2006 we suggested there was a need for “A New Metric for Citizen Well Being” (db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com) to replace consumption and growth.
In March of this year we suggested, for the reasons spelled out in THE ESTATES MATRIX, that MainStream Media was obscuring the need to abandon Mass OverConsumption and Business As Usual in order to preserve – for the time being – its revenue stream. “Good New, Bad Reporting” 24 March 2008.
Today’s WaPo headline is “McCain, Obama Clash over Economy.” One has an 80s solution, the other a 90s solution.
Here are some tentative targets for crafting a realistic economic survival plan. There is no guarantee that this level of conservative action will change the trajectory enough but they will help and they are within limits that most citizens would embrace if they understood the enormity of the consequences of Business As Usual:
One percent annual decline in Gross Domestic Product
Three percent annual decline in Consumer Consumption
Five percent annual decline in Total Energy Consumption
Ten percent annual decline in Energy Imports
After a decade on this new consumption trajectory it should be possible to anticipate a one percent annual drop in total population. Both per capita consumption and total population declines are necessary.
The role of functional human settlement patterns will be critical in achieving these goals. Functional human settlement patterns are the only strategy that can achieve this level of conservation without destroying the Quality of Life for the majority of citizens.
In fact Lewenz argues that changes in human settlement patterns that would achieve these goals at the Village scale would improve Quality of Life. We agree.
In this discussion, we are talking about Quality of Life from the perspective of 75 percent of the economic and social Ziggurat. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.
EMR