Moody’s/Economy.com has just published a forecast of single-family housing prices in the nation’s 150 largest metropolitan areas, “The Single-Family Housing Market Monitor.” The news is not good — especially for the Washington metropolitan area. (I cannot link to the report directly. But go here and then click on “View a sample copy.”)
According to a Wall Street Journal article based on the study, economists are projecting a 12 percent price decline in the Washington area from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2005 to the second quarter of 2008 when the market hits bottom.
In Appendix B, the report ranks Bethesda, Md., as the most overpriced market in the country, followed by Washington, D.C. (which appears to include Northern Virginia). Richmond ranked 75th out of 150 metro regions for overpricing — meaning, essentially, that its housing market is in balance. Hampton Roads (Virginia Beach) is ranked 90th, also in balance.
The news about Northern Virginia should come as no surprise to readers of Bacon’s Rebellion. We’ve been predicting a bursting of the credit- and speculation-driven bubble for more than a year. What’s interesting is that Moody’s/Economy.com has put a number on the price decline.
Politically, what happens when housing prices drop 12 percent on average? Long-term home owners who have built up significant equity in their houses will feel relatively little pain. But newbies, many of them leveraged to the hilt, and old-timers who have borrowed against their rising house values, will see their housing equity evaporate. That will severely undercut their ability to borrow and spend.
Under those circumstances, you can be sure that Northern Virginians will perk up and pay attention when local governments jack up nominal tax rates by 12 percent just to maintain the same revenue flow — something they haven’t had to do in years. Paying $3,000 a year in property taxes doesn’t hurt so much when the value of your house has increased $25,000. But it hurts real baaad when your house has lost $25,000 in value, wiping out half of your equity. A political firestorm seems inevitable.
The timing could not be worse for Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, who is threatening to make taxes for transportation an issue in the 2007 General Assembly elections. Kaine and his allies in the Axis of Taxes will be calling for $1 billion or more in state tax increases at the very same time that homeowners are suffering from declines in net worth and, most likely, voluably protesting rising local property taxes. I find dubious the proposition that voters will respond warmly to the call for higher state taxes.
As the Northern Virginia real estate debacle slowly unfolds, the political implications will become increasingly obvious to everyone.