How Fiscally Conservative Is McDonnell, Really?

Fiscal conservative… or pragmatist?

Does Governor Bob McDonnell deserve his reputation as a fiscal conservative? The libertarian-leaning Cato Institute is dubious. McDonnell “hasn’t taken any major actions to shrink the Virginia government,” writes Chris Edwards, author of “Fiscal Report Card on America’s Governors 2012.”

Indeed McDonnell and Virginia rated a “C” for fiscal policy, as measured by seven indicators of state spending, revenues and tax rates. Cato’s system favors states that cut spending and taxes. However, as the report concedes, it does not account for “longer-term or structural changes” that governors make, such as reforms to state pension plans. One of McDonnell’s signature accomplishments in 2012 was a restructuring of the Virginia Retirement System to significantly reduce (though not eliminate) unfunded pension liabilities. On the other hand, Cato made no deductions for McDonnell’s aggressive use of debt to fund his transportation initiatives.

On those criteria that Cato did measure, Edwards was not much impressed:

McDonnell has signed into law a smattering of small tax increases and tax cuts, but he hasn’t proposed any major tax reforms. McDonnell hasn’t been very conservative on spending either. The Virginia general fund budget increased from $14.8 billion in the governor’s first year of fiscal 2010 to an estimated $17.2 billion in fiscal 2013, which is a 16 percent expansion. To his credit, McDonnell pushed to privatize the government’s liquor stores, but he couldn’t get his own party in the legislature to go along with the plan.

Four states — Kansas, Florida, Maine and Pennsylvania — scored “A” under Cato’s methodology, while five — Washington, Hawaii, Minnesota, Connecticut and Illinois — earned an “F.”

I asked McDonnell’s press secretary Jeff Caldwell for a response to the Cato study. Here it is:

When Governor McDonnell took office in January 2010, he inherited a combined budget shortfall of $6 billion. He immediately rejected a proposed $2 billion tax hike left by the previous administration, and instead closed that shortfall by reducing state spending to 2007 levels and making state government more efficient and effective. In his three years in office he has overseen three consecutive budget surpluses totaling $1.4 billion, all without raising taxes.

At the same time, Virginia has approved legislation and budget actions that potentially lower the tax burden on Virginians and Virginia businesses by a combined total of $529.4 million through the end of FY2017.

The governor also advocated for the largest-ever state employer contribution to the underfunded Virginia Retirement System, injecting $596.9 million for state employees and $1.61 billion (state and local) for teachers during this upcoming biennium. This effort, combined with other pension reforms, will reduce state and local unfunded pension liabilities by nearly $9 billion over the next 20 years.

In addition, Governor McDonnell has doubled the size of Virginia’s “Rainy Day Fund”, while also overseeing major reforms to make Virginia government smaller, including enacting a hiring freeze, streamlining regulations, creating incentive programs to improve government efficiency, merging or eliminating redundant agencies and reforming government operations to save taxpayers money. He has also worked to shrink the overall size of the non-college and university state employees. Despite revenues exceeding forecasted amounts since the governor took office, the executive branch has reduced the number of classified employees by more than 1,000.

Governor McDonnell has enacted conservative fiscal policies that have helped retain the Commonwealth’s AAA bond ratings. He has rejected efforts to raise taxes, and overseen three straight budget surpluses.

— JAB


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  1. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    McDonnell’s rating of a “C” from the Cato crew solidifies my support for the man.

    The last thing Virginia (or America for that matter) needs is another far right or far left ideologue in office.

    The only thing better than getting a “C” from the right would be to get another “C” from the left.

    It’s really a shame that Gov. McDonnell presides in the only state in the union where he cannot run for another term (right away).

    Once again, the bizarre thought patterns of the Imperial Clown Show in Richmond (i.e. General Assembly) puts the state in a bad position.

  2. I think a lot of people, Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike, appreciate someone who is just steering the ship. McDonnell, like Doug Wilder before him, steered the ship. No big new programs; no major changes in, or reductions to, government.

    A good barometer is constant criticisms from the loons on the editorial page of the Post. When Fred Hiatt and Lee Hockstetter are ranting, an elected official is probably doing a decent job.

    The Dillon Rule is not going away. It might be loosened for administrative matters, but it won’t go away. It protects the average citizen against runaway government.

    1. DJRippert Avatar

      “It protects the average citizen against runaway government.”.

      I don’t need Richmond’s protection. If I don’t like the way local government is being run, I will vote for different local politicians. If I can’t get what I want at the ballot box I will move to another locality I like better.

      Dillon’s Rule, like the one term governor limit, no recalls or referenda, no term limits for the GA, etc is intended to keep the clowns of the Imperial Clown Show in Richmond in office and in dictatorial control of Virginians.

  3. He HAS advocated an increase in taxes for transportation. correct?

  4. CATO is not very “tight” on their criteria – and more important the baseline from which people were judged.

    For instance, WHERE was Kansas on taxes – compared to other states before he made cuts in taxes?

    and of course… what ends up getting cut as a result of reduced revenues.

    I’ve not been impressed with much of what CATO does as it tends to lean towards sound-bite type concepts and more than once, they leave a wrong impression.

    Let me put this another way. The Fiscal Conservatives I most trust are the ones that make incremental, “steady as we go” type changes. Changes that are effective but more important changes that will “stick” – are sustainable over the longer run.

    When I look at what Brownback did – if I lived in Kansas and I was a taxpayer or a business owner, the size of the changes he made – without showing what will be cut – is worrisome.

    If we made that size of cuts in Va, we all know what it would do to schools and law enforcement.

    I think McDonnell rates a B but he has not shown much courage or leadership in changing the way we think about government. Instead, he’s pretty much nibbled around the edges but to his credit, he has not screwed up the state – like Gimore and Allen did. Gilmore with te bizarre local property tax “relief” and Allen by gutting VDOT and then VDOT having to essentially hire people back as expensive consultants.

  5. yeah, CATO is not doing a very good job. They’ve cherry picked one or two things and their criteria in general is nebulous and not convincing.

    For instance, one of the really big deals in most states is how they are handling their pension obligations and unfunded liabilities.

    there are things that demand courage and leadership to deal with and CATO is AWOL on this issue – which would have been a lot easier to do an apple to apple comparison and rating than the stuff they chose.

    Walker gets short shrift – and no matter what you think about him and his philosophy on public sector unions and employees – he took the bull by the horns at not insignificant political risk and government in Wisconsin was changed but he does not even make the top group. Why?

    I hate it when a think tank like CATO expends time and effort to generate a “study” or a “report” and it is flabby as the proverbial lady Opera singer.

  6. re: “protection”. If citizens had the right to initiate referenda AND to recall elected, we would not need “protection” but the reality is that when someone gets into office… they can turn into the biggest scumball you every would see and they are for all practical purposes immune from any accountability from citizens.

    If I could choose whether to have 2 terms of citizen initiated referenda and recall – it would be no contest. I’d take the former any day.

  7. sorry the LATTER …!!!

  8. […] fiscal conservatives in power, like Governor Bob McDonnell in Virginia are finding it tough to make inroads into their fiscal deficits. This has led some to […]

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