House Prices and Killer Commutes

Others have made this point on the blog, but it bears repeating and emphasizing: While home prices are getting hammered everywhere, they are falling fastest in neighborhoods located the farthest jobs. Long commutes are a killer. This comes from National Public Radio:

Economists say home prices are nowhere near hitting bottom. But even in regions that have taken a beating, some neighborhoods remain practically unscathed. And a pattern is emerging as to which neighborhoods those are.

The ones with short commutes are faring better than places with long drives into the city. Some analysts see a pause in what has long been inexorable — urban sprawl.

The Washington, D.C., metropolitan area has been hit hard. Prices tumbled an average of 11 percent in the past year. That’s the big picture. But a look at Ashburn, Va., about 40 miles from the center of town, finds a steeper fall.

In parts of the county, housing prices have dropped 18 percent over that same period. New construction has ground to a halt.

Realtor Danilo Bogdanovic surveyed two rows of neat, new, brick townhouses on Falkner’s Lane. “These were selling for about $550,000 at the peak, which was about August ’05, and they’re selling right now for about $350,000,” Bogdanovic said. “Fifty percent of this community has been ether foreclosed on or is facing foreclosure.”

For residents who work in the city, their commute is around an hour on trouble-free days. But that can extend upward toward two hours.


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  1. Groveton Avatar

    Dispatch from Tokyo:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

    The resulting economic stagnation lasted about 14 years. 14 years from now it will be 2022.

    Thing have been much better since 2004 but 14 years is a long time in economic purgatory.

  2. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Groveton, I hereby dub you Bacon’s Rebellion’s international correspondent.

  3. In other words: “location, location, location.”

    This is a perfect example of why social engineering zealots should not be behind the levers of government policy. There’s no need for the government to dictate where people live when the market does a pretty good job of keeping things in balance.

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Let’s see. If I save $200,000 on my home, I can buy 40,000 gallons of gas and drive 1.4 million miles.

    The interest on $200,000 will let me drive 5000 miles a month.

    When house prices fall because of high gas prices, it effectively resets teh equation on how far it makes sense to drive.

    Those people hat got foreclosed on – how many of them moved closer tothe city, and how many of them just moved away? How many of them got foreclosed on because of gas prices, or would they have been in trouble anyway?

    RH

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “…or would they have been in trouble anyway?”

    IMO, many were were doomed from the beginning. It was a classic bubble driven by pure speculation….not to mention the house as ATM mentality.

    I was working in the NOVA real estate industry and the first signs of trouble were when gas prices spiked up in the summer of 2006….people quit driving out to the open houses in places like Purcellville, Lovettsville, Waterford, etc….and the funny thing was, Realtors couldn’t figure out why.

  6. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    wait until the one buck per mile HOT lanes come online….

  7. RH,
    It’s not gas that’s the issue, it’s time. Let’s say you save $200,000 by adding an hour each way to the commute by moving 15 miles further away. That’s 2 hours a day x 5 days a week x 50 weeks a year or 500 hours (= 20 days) total. What’s 20 days of your life per year worth?

    When HOT hits, it will be exceedingly miserable. More congestion in the free lanes and a hit-or-miss guess whether spending a $20 toll will actually get you where you want to go faster. The lanes themselves will introduce on/off bottlenecks that ripple throughout the system just like the HOV lanes do on I-395 by the Pentagon and where HOV ends on I-95 do now.

    I’ve seen this first-hand with California’s SR91 HOT lane. That project has been a disaster in every respect, but that doesn’t stop it from being celebrated by the think tankers who just happen to neglect disclosing the wads of cash they get from tolling companies.

  8. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Humm maybe its time for me to buy that place in Ashburn

    Nah I’ll stay in my lower miles and faster commute condo :-p

    I do have some sympathy though. If I would have gotten married recently/planning on kids I propably would have ended up in Ashburn and facing the same situation. Althought in that situation I don’t think young families are planning on selling anytime soon so there is really nothing to worry about.

    Suburbia is taking an expected breath/pause/correction its not dead by any means

    NMM

  9. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    The Virginia HOT lanes .. MAY be different.

    they are going to rebuild several existing old/obsolete/ overpasses and ramps and new flyover ramps for exiting and merging…

    much further south on I-95 than the current HOV merge..

    Fluor/Transurban are well aware of the bottleneck potentials as well as the larger potential that if HOT lanes fail in the Wash Metro area.. it may well so damage the concept that other HOT lane projects could be canceled.

    But methinks the gloom and doom folks really overlook two very significant “pluses”.

    1 – new lanes – the existing lanes will not be co-opted for toll lanes so if you drove solo before, the congestion should not be worse – and may be better if enough folks switch to the toll lanes.

    2. – the new lanes, ramps, etc are being built in years.. not decades.

    How long would it take VDOT to add new lanes and ramps without the HOT lane concept?

    Because the funding will be available up-front instead of waiting for VDOT to scrape enough together.. the upgrades can be done concurrently.. instead of sequentially.

    The whole thing might turn out to be an enormous steaming heap.. but .. it might not also..

    it’s worth trying… IMHO

    The alternative is “no build” … nothing.. and no prospects of anything in the next decade or two.

    So this is a bad thing?

  10. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    There is an alternative that is not being explored that would solve the “congestion problem”

    Put congestion pricing on all lanes of the I-495, I-95, and I-66. Give a break on HOV-3 during the peak period and be done…

    “Congestion problem” solved.

    You solve it from an economic perspective and people’s behavior will find the new maximum benefit…

    Why is this transportation “problem” so difficult to fix?

    Next…

  11. Accurate Avatar

    The problem I have with this is it is going under the assumption that the ‘jobs’ are ‘in town’. At least in my area, that is not a true statement. Portland has done a GREAT job of driving jobs out of it’s boundaries. However, since all freeways (pretty much) force you to drive through the city to get to the other side, we have gridlock. There are literally boatloads of jobs (in this area) that are NOT in the city.

    This posting also begs the old question – which comes first, the job or the place to live? And it’s follow up question – so do you move everytime you get a new job? Or do you get a new job everytime you want to move to a new place to live?

    My experience is that usually you get a job and try to find a place to live. If you get a new job within a reasonable distance of where you presently live (and if you like where you are living) you stay in your abode. Rarely do people choose the place they want to live and then try to find a job.

    The fact that the ‘city’ is NOT (at least in this area) the ‘hot bed of jobs’ is one more reason why ‘smart growth’ and all it’s permutations (see EMR’s ideas) doesn’t work for the majority of the population.

  12. Groveton Avatar

    NMM:

    Trust me on this – marriage and kids are a far greater risk to your financial health than any house in Ashburn.

  13. Anon,

    There will be congestion pricing on 395 and 95 as HOT includes congestion pricing.

    It doesn’t work. Sure, it sounds great in the think tank vacuum (funded by the companies that get the lucrative contracts) but it’s much more complex in practice.

    Take the $5 billion that was going to be wasted on five people per day who would have used the Dulles train, add 2 lanes in each direction to 395, 95 and 66. If NIMBYs complain, send them to Guantanamo. Problem solved.

  14. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Bob, You said, “When HOT hits, it will be exceedingly miserable. More congestion in the free lanes and a hit-or-miss guess whether spending a $20 toll will actually get you where you want to go faster. The lanes themselves will introduce on/off bottlenecks that ripple throughout the system just like the HOV lanes do on I-395 by the Pentagon and where HOV ends on I-95 do now.”

    Wrong, wrong, wrong.

    (1) There there will be little guesswork to whether your $20 toll gets you to your destination faster. The tolls are set dynamically to keep traffic flowing at an optimal level. If $20 doesn’t do the trick, the toll will rise to $25. If that’s too high and the toll road is performing sub-optimally, the toll will drop to $15.

    (2) There will NOT be more congestion on the free lanes. That’s because the tolls are being used to pay the cost of constructing NEW lanes. They are financing an expansion of road capacity that the state cannot afford.

    (3) People who choose not to pay the toll also come out ahead. The new toll lanes take existing commuters off the old lanes, thus relieving traffic at least temporarily.

    (4) The on-off bottleneck issue is an interesting one that I cannot answer with any authority. But I would find it hard to believe that the toll road operators would build new lanes without also adding the capability for cars to get on and off. Otherwise, why would anyone pay the toll?

  15. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    I think the bottleneck issue is real but it’s not like we don’t already have them in spades.

    Folks familiar with the current HOV merges know about these choke points. But there are many other choke points and despite the fact that they are known and there are known upgrades, there is NO MONEY to fix any of them under the current funding streams.

    I think that is one reason why the recent toll study looked at various flavors of area-wide tolling of major roads and bridges – was – the bottleneck potentials.

    But Fluor and Transurban are very focused on this – because they know that..(and this is the difference between a private profit-seeking entity and a VDOT) .. if people pay the toll and don’t get something of value that is worth it to them – they can and will walk away.

    So, there has to be some level of performance and the reality is that even if only 5% divert from the existing old lanes – that’s a 5% reduction in congestion from those lanes.

    The naysayers will say …”yeah but then traffic will grow and swallow up that 5%”. True.. but without the 2 HOT lanes.. wouldn’t the additional 5% further the gridlock?

    But a trip that becomes more “reliable” but still ends in a bottleneck/wait will still deliver value if the combination of the toll lanes + the exit bottleneck.. STILL deliver a faster and more reliable trip than the non-toll lanes.

    This is the entire concept of road pricing.

    RH and others talk about penalizing people but you’re actually doing the opposite.

    You’re offering more/different options to people that they did not have before and because it’s is not a DOT.. the companies involved have a major dog in the hunt – because the better the service, the better their company will do.

    You’re giving people opportunities that they did not have before – to have less congestion.. to be able to save time on both ends of their trip because they don’t have to “allow” extra time in case of backups.

    Today.. many, many people leave earlier for work for important meetings or trying to catch a plane. Having a known trip time can actually deliver more hours to some people .. those additional hours.. put to productive use instead of sitting in traffic.

    Which is .. ironically.. the class congestion argument – i.e. the “time lost” due to congestion.

    There one more thing that has been ignored.

    The HOT lanes will FREE UP the gas tax to be used for other projects that normally would not be funded either including fixing old bridges that there is not money for right now.

    People are concerned about the way the Dulles Toll road has been co-opted for back-door funding of projects that are not cost-effective and I admit that this has me concerned also.

    But this still beats.. sending the money to Richmond and wondering where it went to.

  16. Mr. Bacon,

    My statement of “misery” is based on experience with the 91 freeway in Orange County, CA. My family endures it daily and I spend a lot of time there myself. The history of the 91 toll lanes makes a good read — built as a wonderful model of PPP, the county was forced to buy it out from the private developers at more than the cost to construct the lanes in the first place. Brilliant! Unless you’re a taxpayer…

    Fact: It is currently a crapshoot whether paying the $1 per mile (=$10) toll on the 91 gets you to the destination faster. Maybe a third of the time I see cars parked in the toll lane. This also happens in the HOV lanes here sometimes.

    Some of the factors involved: credit cards, bottlenecks, and accidents. (1) The whole idea of the toll transponder is to allow toll increases without people noticing — sort of like income tax withholding. If you had to pull out a $20 bill every day to drive to work and another $20 to go home, you’d feel it more and probably would act more according to your economic theory. See the MIT study. The credit card seems to nullify somewhat the effect of the jump from $20 to $25. (The I-95/395 HOT lanes will be ~20 miles, hence the $20 figure.)

    Your theory requires that there be no ultimate limit on the charge, but no toll system in reality allows infinite tolls. I’d love to see what happens when the toll board driving on 95 south says, “Toll Lane: $60.” You want a Rebellion? You got one… Toll roads have been causing them for centuries 1844 toll riots.

    (2 & 3) Bottlenecks. To enter the left-hand lanes toll lane, you need to cut across five lanes of bumper-to-bumper traffic. This cutting causes brake lights to flare and traffic to slow. It also increases accidents. You’re stuck in the lanes if there’s an accident. After you take your ten mile cruise, if you live in the miserable city of Corona you need to cut right back over another five lanes before you miss the exit. Sure, you can build crazy fly-over bridges and on-ramps. Expensive. Wasteful. More crumbling bridges to take care of!

    As for your point #2, there won’t be new lanes on I-95/395. Read the contract. They’ll put in one extra lane one way for part of the route. So that’s like one-half of a lane. The road configuration could support TWO free lanes in both directions if all the tolling/HOV nonsense were removed. This doesn’t even bring into consideration the non-compete clauses which will mandate congestion to ensure the tollers a 13% annual return on their money. The Beltway project does get an extra lane. That’s good.

    As for point #3, it’s not going to take any commuters out of the free lane. It will have the same congestion level as the HOV currently have. It will make little net difference. The Beltway should be better. I concede that. Just not as good as it could be for less money and effort. And no big brother spying infrastructure needed.

  17. Mr Gross, you say: “Fluor and Transurban are very focused on this – because they know that..(and this is the difference between a private profit-seeking entity and a VDOT) .. if people pay the toll and don’t get something of value that is worth it to them – they can and will walk away.”

    This is precisely the problem. Under the current system, VDOT has no WILL (but plenty of cash) to fix the chokepoints. VDOT is merely lazy and stupid, leading to congestion.

    Transurban and Fluor have a financial incentive to create congestion in “competing” free lanes. In fact, to ensure they get better financing they write their congestion producing ideas into the contract. Less risk = easier cash, leading to congestion.

    So which do you prefer? Lazy or malevolent?

    A powerful governor can fix VDOT. Nothing fixes the market incentive to create congestion created by tolling — except to toll every road. How convenient!

  18. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    HOT lanes will not do ANY of what they claim. Most of what they claim is an outright lie.

    Won’t pay for more roads.
    Won’t reduce congestion.
    Won’t offer most people any real choice.
    Won’t solve the problem.
    Won’t be equitable.
    Will reduce Carpools.
    Will cause employment centers to move.

    That’s my story and I’m sticking with it.

    RH

  19. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    true or false:

    VDOT is alone in being the stupidest/laziest DOT in the entire country as no other urban areas are dealing the the problem they have in the Wash Metro Area. (T/F)

    There are obvious better ways to deal with congestion.. that have been implemented Nationwide and even Worldwide that do not involve tolls. (T/F)

    (fill in the blanks)

    The BEST way to deal with Wash Metro is the follow the excellent approaches used in ________ which have clearly shown that there are beter ways.

    The city that has clearly proven that you CAN build your way out of congestion with non-toll lanes is ____.

    batter up…

    Everyone’s got ideas of what does or does not work.. fine..

    show me where those ideas actually do work..

  20. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Here’s VDOT’s latest screw-up in Fairfax County. VDOT just clear-cut a multi-acre plot at the intersection of Georgetown Pike and Balls Hill Road (right near the Beltway) in Fairfax County. VDOT and Transurban are making a staging area for HOT lanes construction equipment and materials. This is in the middle of a residential area and across from two schools.

    But guess what? VDOT did not notify anyone that it was going to take this action. VDOT did not notify Chairman Connolly, Supervisor Foust, the principals of the two affected schools, any local civic associations, nearby residents — no one.

    Further, VDOT made no arrangements to address storm water runoff (as early today anyway). How long will this site be operative? What about the affect on traffic congestion? What about security? Noise?

    As Ricky Ricardo would have said: “VDOT, you have some splainin to do.”

    TMT

  21. Jim Wamsley Avatar
    Jim Wamsley

    Bob at 7:42AM missed one point. When VDOT finally gets around to solving the congestion problem Transurban and Fluor will get the concession to run the tolls on what are now the “competing” free lanes.

  22. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    so which is it?

    Do we want VDOT to do transportation or do we want private industry?

    The reports of VDOT’s chronic ineptitude ..and to acknowledge.. fairly.. mixed in with some of their successes…

    only really demonstrates in my mind just how dumb and ham-fisted government approaches can be.. and in VDOT’case – a 9000+ employee organization.. thoroughly embedded in it’s role.. and secure enough to not infrequently do arrogant things that anger the public.

    But then the same folks not happy with VDOT express fear and suspicion to having private entities collect revenues and build/maintain transportation…

    I personally don’t think the answer of “reforming VDOT” is any more or less likely to produce a lean, mean DOT in Virginia anymore than so in other states – because the basic problem is when you have a government agency so thoroughly entrenched ..and who gets 4Billion dollars a year (only Education gets more).. they are seriously unafraid of “reform”.

    They have a “take it or leave it” proposition. “Let us do transportation OUR way or risk screwing things up worse than we are now.. especially if you turn this over to profit-seeking charlatans.

    So I see it here in this blog.

    Invariably, when options are discussed and debated.. the biggest vote-getting [with respect to options] is: “none of the above”.

    Just to be fair… any critic of VDOT surely must acknowledge that despite the screw-ups and serious policy and fiscal issues – that they do a pretty good job.. with maintenance and even some new roads.

    the problem is that it costs us dearly for VDOT to do this work and this is what happens when you have 9000 employees.. no matter what your workload is.

    Private industry “flexes” in terms of hiring.. to ramp up or down according to their business….so they can stay viable as a business

    But VDOT goes on and on and needs more and more… no matter what.

    but .. this is like asking the public which tax they want to see increased for more transportation and the answer invariable comes back – “none of the above” and that’s the fundamental quandary in Va with BOTH VDOT AND funding.

    so we shove a bunch the GA in a room with Kaine… and expect them to do something “satisfying”…

    right….

  23. Larry Gross asks: “The city that has clearly proven that you CAN build your way out of congestion with non-toll lanes is ____.”

    Unfortunately, you offer a false choice. Under existing federal law, it’s extremely difficult to add general purpose lanes to a freeway in an urban area. 1990 additions to the “Clean Air Act” (more properly the Rape Motorists to Subsidize Empty Buses Act) forces a state DOT wanting more capacity to implement one of sixteen of super-expensive boondoggles called Transportation Control Measures: light rail, etc. The least offensive of these options is HOV. Federal law must be changed.

    I wish I had kept it, but I remember reading a newly minted Democrat VDOT head (Warner’s?) proudly proclaiming “No more new roads!” That’s not an institutional problem, the direction came ultimately from the governor. If VDOT is told to do the right thing, VDOT will do it.

    Will VDOT do it in the best way? No. It’ll be inefficient. But it won’t be anywhere near as inefficient as doing it with the absurd and expensive big brother tolling infrastructure. And guess what? VDOT can contract out the construction work to Flour if it wants to.

    The idea of the “no new roads” crowd is that by making the roads miserable, people won’t want to move in to the area. Well, guess what, this crowd was only one-half right.

  24. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Pittsburgh doesn’t seem to have a lot of congestion, but they shed a lot of jobs to do it. No tolls involved.

    RH

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