HOT, FLAT AND CROWDED — A MATTER OF VOCABULARY

Last week Thomas L. Friedman’s most recent book was at the top of WaPo’s nonfiction best sellers list. This week it is number four.

Footnote: EMR got his hands on a nonsanctioned lite book –a LARGE PRINT version – so he went to the Greater Warrenton Borders for one that is easier to read. In these times of financial crisis when citizens really need to understand how the world works, two copies of Friedman’s book were on a shelf in the way-way-back. What was in front piled in great stacks? Fiction, political hack screeds and in-depth reporting on the same insights found in tabloids and Parade: “Daniel Craig is more than a tough guy.”

Friedman’s title, Hot, Flat and Crowed, is provocative, but there are several problems of Vocabulary.

HOT

“HOT” refers to Global Climate Change. It plays to his subtitle” “Why We Need a Green Revolution – And How it Can Renew America.”

There is some debate about whether the earth is really getting hotter – most of the negative assessments come from proponents of Business-As-Usual and from “principled-conservatives” which makes this perspective suspect from the start.

There is even more heated discussion about whether human action is a driver / accelerator of Global Climate Change but Friedman seems to have no doubts.

As EMR has said over and over both the existence of a warming trend and the causes are fine to debate but the larger reality is that does not make any difference.

What ever the trend and whatever the cause, the “alarmists” who have a problem with Global Warming and decry the human impact on Climate Change are calling for actions that for the most part are needed for other very sound economic, social and physical reasons. Jim Bacon and EMR agree on this since he is more of a skeptic on the issue of causation.

Two other thoughts on HOT:

EMR has been carefully watching the well documented melting of glaciers for the past 60-plus years in his home Community – a disaggregated and very Beta Community in the Northern Rocky Mountain Urban Support Region.

Second, one of the biggest non-economic and non-mysterious health problems is that people go to the hospital for a well known cause and come out with an gratuitous infection. Peyton and Kellen had infections in the last few weeks.

EMR spent some time in the Greater Warrenton-Fauquier Community Hospital last week. (“If you want to do great things in your world, spend some time in ours,” US Navy)

It became obvious – while waiting for the medical staff to assembly to carry out a routine exploratory procedure, and while covered with a sheet and pre-warmed double blanket – the special-ops area of the hospital was COLD. The doctors and nurses were wearing two and three (visible) layers. The Hispanic lady who was scrubbing equipment looked like what was once called an “Eskimo” but is now call an “Inuit,” (aka, Aemai – An Earlier North American Immigrant.)

Why so cold in the Hospital? Do infections spread more easily in warmer temperatures? Having spent a month or more in the subtropics for over 30 years – and some time in hospitals on
Tortola and St. Vincent – EMR suspects the answer is “yes.”

Based on direct experience, EMR sees no reason to question the predominance of scientific evidence on both warming and cause but as noted above, that is not the real issue.

So HOT is problematic, However, HOTTER or not, what is important is that what is recommended to stop accelerating Global Warming makes sense to achieve a sustainable trajectory for society. Do we really need to fuss over “HOT” to make better decisions about locations and the allocation of resources?

FLAT

Friedman has ended the lives of thousands of acres of forest in order to tell readers of serial editions an earlier book about FLAT. By FLAT he means “Globality: Competing with Everyone From Everywhere for Everything.” – to use Sirkin, et. al.’s title and explanation – is making the world seem “flat.” As Supercapitalism makes very clear Globality and FLAT is not a good thing from many perspectives.

The fact is, the most important thing is NOT the price of tea in China.

The most important thing for any citizen is the safety, happiness and well being of the other citizens in ones Cluster, the Clusters that make up their Neighborhood, the Neighborhoods that make up their Village…

The complexity of Globality is an excuse for avoiding what is really important. For this reason FLAT is confusing and the analogy is way over-used.

CROWDED

It is with “Crowded” that Friedman goes off the rail.

He fails to understand that “Crowded” is an variable that is dependent upon human settlement patterns. What seems to be “Crowded” is due to a dysfunctional distribution of human activity and the failure to allocate resources equitably.

Six and a half billion people is not beyond the carrying capacity of the Earth.

Six and a half billion citizens is beyond the carrying capacity of Earth if they all were to consume as much per capita as those in the US of A believe to be their birthright.

The primary driver of unsustainable per capita consumption is dysfunctional settlement pattern.

Of course with fewer citizens on Earth, everyone could enjoy more per capita consumption but that is a different issue.

Freedman sees the problem of CROWDED as being due to the expansion of the “middle class.” Never mind that the Middle Class disappeared over the past six decades.

What he means is that there has been an expansion of expectations and consumption of some at the upper levels of the Ziggurat in all the richest nation-states.

It is now quite clear that this level of consumption cannot be sustained even by a super fortunate minority. The cheap resources – natural capital – is becoming more dear and fewer and fewer can afford it.

The critical problem is that a lot of those who are not yet Mass OverConsuming have been told by pandering politicians that they deserve to achieve levels of consumption that they see in ads and in more-real-than-life streaming and screaming images spread around the Globe.

The Business-As-Usual advocates confuse the comfort and consumption of “me and my friends” at the top of the Ziggurat with the welfare and sustainability of an “advanced” technological society.

A green revolution will not solve this problem. It will take a gray-matter revolution.

To make matters worse, driven by Business-As-Usual and MainStream Media, the only interest in “green” that has been discovered outside small, intentional communities has been Green Greed – Buy our product and feel good about consumption.

In a rational world, ads for a “full-size, luxury SUV Hybrid” would be considered pornography.

Energy, technology and meat along with Large, Private Vehicles and Scattered McMansions will never again be cheap.

That is especially true if the there is a delusion that it is possible to fuel, inform, over-feed, provide Mobility, Access and Shelter for six and a half billion citizens with democratic governance and market economies.

EMR


Share this article



ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)



ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)


Comments

9 responses to “HOT, FLAT AND CROWDED — A MATTER OF VOCABULARY”

  1. re: …”…The primary driver of unsustainable per capita consumption is dysfunctional settlement pattern

    …..

    Energy, technology and meat”

    I’d like to point out – that – in EMR’s vision – things like “meat” are to be provided by so-called Urban Support Regions – a term he has not really adequately defined in terms of what it should or should not produce.

    without further explanation – isn’t there an issue of HOW MUCH meat should be produced (or not)?

    As has been pointed out – the amount of energy and resources used to produce meat for human consumption is not trivial, and, in fact, claimed to be part and parcel of the degradation of the environment – both directly and indirectly…

    .. and this is true … even if the meat is produced in an Urban Support Region – for consumption in a Functional Community…

    .. and there-in lies a very huge, apparent contradiction in EMR’s thesis…

    … things that are necessary for folks in Functional Settlement Patterns but cannot be produced within the clear edge – certainly not on a truly sustainable basis…

    EMR conveniently locates such things in Urban Support Regions – in which.. the rules for sustainability are – suspended… because.., it is allowed .. if they are an urban support region…

    No where does EMR talk about how much food should be grown – PER CAPITA in an urban support region…

    that’s because they are the convenient “safety valves” for all things that cannot be accomplished in a sustainable fashion inside the clear edge.

    and of course, that includes electricity… where..again.. EMR does not talk about what a sustainable level of electric consumption is – because.. since the generating plants are located in Urban Support Regions – they are not really an issue….

    If Mass Over Consumption is a key issue – then Urban Support Regions.. in terms of what they produce and how much they produce on a PER CAPITA basis would seem to be not only a key issue but an imperative issue…

    For example, we could grow 20 chickens a year for per capita human consumption ..or 5 or 50.. and the numbers do matter.. in terms of how much feed they need.. how much energy it costs to grow them.. and how much of the environment that is “used” to grow them.

    Why is sustainability on a per capita basis not an issue in Urban Support Regions?

    Oh.. and what about all those folks who have to actually live and work in Urban Support Regions… instead of functional settlement patterns??

    they are necessary evils?

    what would be the correct percentage of “necessary evil”?

    should 10% of the folks who live in functional settlement patterns be the right number for those who live in Urban Support Regions to support those who do live in the functional settlement patterns?

    or is that number 40% …or 2%?

    A LOT depends on how much they must produced – to be consumed.

    do they produce one cow per person per year or is it one cow per 10 people per year?

    10 cows consume 10 times as much energy and resources and produce 10 times as much pollution….

    questions.. questions..

    such pesky things for those who fan dance…

  2. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “…..Scattered McMansions will never again be cheap. “

    So, how come the prices on these things are falling like a stone? how come Wall street is moving off of Wall Street, to less expensive locations?

    RH

  3. Ray Hyde Avatar

    Almost all the benefits of economic growth since the 1970s have gone to a small number of people at the very top. ~Robert Reich, Financial Times (1/29/2008)

    Since the mid-1970s income growth has been confined almost entirely to top earners. ~Robert Frank, NY Times (3/9/2008)

    The modern American economy distributes the fruits of its growth to a relatively narrow slice of the population. ~David Leonhardt, NY Times (4/9/2008)

    Minneapolis Federal Reserve: The claim that the standard of living of middle Americans has stagnated over the past generation is common. An accompanying assertion is that virtually all income growth over the past three decades bypassed middle America and accrued almost entirely to the rich. The findings reported here refute those claims. Careful analysis shows that the incomes of most types of middle American households have increased substantially over the past three decades. These results are consistent with recent research showing that the largest income increases occurred at the top end of the income distribution. But the outsized gains of the rich do not mean that middle America stagnated.

    Claims of long-term middle America stagnation—such as those quoted above—are often part of a broader argument about the adverse impact of globalization, outsourcing and free trade. And middle class stagnation is used as motivation for a specific set of policies. But if middle America has not stagnated—as this analysis has shown—then this motivation for those policies is without merit.

    From the conclusion of “Where Has All the Income Gone?” by Terry Fitzgerald, Senior Economist

    ————————-

    EMR’s proposals are without merit because the underlying premises are demonstrably false.

    RH

  4. Ray Hyde Avatar

    From the Joint Economic Committee of Congress:

    “According to a key Census Bureau measure, income inequality has been unchanged since 2000. The Census Bureau recently confirmed that no statistically significant change in the inequality measure occurred between 2000 and 2007 (see chart above), the last year for which data are available. The measure referred to here is known as the Gini coefficient, a standard gauge of income inequality published by the Census Bureau and widely used by economists and other researchers (Gini coeffients data here for households and families).

    When examining income data for different groups over time it should be recalled that there is a good deal of income mobility between income groups, and membership of various income groups changes significantly over extended periods of time. For example, a household that was in the middle fifth in 1985 is probably no longer in that group now. As a result, changes in the middle fifth’s average income between 1985 and 2005 aren’t a good reflection of the changes in the economic well-being of a household that left that income group years ago. Nearly half of all households move to a different fifth in as little as three years.

    Also, inequality in consumption is much less than inequality in income. For example, the level of consumption in the bottom fifth is nearly twice that of income, indicating that income is not necessarily the best measure of economic well-being. “

  5. Ray Hyde Avatar

    It is a delusion that it is possible to fuel, inform, over-feed, provide Mobility, Access and Shelter for six and a half billion citizens with democratic governance and market economies?

    So much for democracy and free markets.

    RH

  6. Anonymous Avatar

    Thomas L. Friedman’s book refers to “crowded” but seems to mean “overpopulated”, which is an entirely different, but far more important matter.

    Overpopulation relates to carrying capacity, not number of bodies per cubit or whatever.

    The ‘third rail’ of getting your book on any best selling list is to imply that overpopulation is here, now, and everywhere and that all of us everywhere are responsible for it and should stop making babies for a while.

    We’ve already exceed global carrying capacity. We are now in “overshoot”. Global population is nearing 7 billion. Global carrying capacity is about 2 billion. (This assumes some level of social justice and a moderate, low by US standards, standard of living – a higher number is possible if you prefer a cattle car/Matrix esque ‘life’, but not anywhere near 7 billion).

    We will get to some number much lower than 7 billion the hard way (wars, famine, disease, and their accompanying losses of environmental quality, freedom, and social justice) OR the less hard way (immediately and drastically reducing our population voluntarily).

    Suggested reading:
    “Overshoot” Catton

    http://www.paulchefurka.ca

    http://home.alltel.net/bsundquist1/

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2693

  7. Ray Hyde Avatar

    Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data show that the total effective federal tax rate of the middle fifth of households declined after 2001 to its lowest levels since at least 1979, Congressman Jim Saxton, ranking member of the Joint Economic Committee, said today. Under the 2001 and 2003 tax relief legislation, the income tax as a share of income for the middle fifth also has fallen to its lowest levels in decades (see chart above, click to enlarge).

    In 2005, the CBO data indicate that in the middle fifth, the total effective tax rate — the share of federal taxes as a percent of income — was 14.2%, while the effective individual income tax rate was 3.0%. These figures compare to 2000 levels of 16.6% and 5.0%, respectively. Between 2003 and 2005, the total effective tax rate for the middle fifth edged up, but still remained far below the levels of the previous 24 years.

    “The CBO analysis shows that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts have lowered the tax burden on middle income taxpayers to the lowest levels since at least the late 1970s,” Saxton said. “The CBO tax figures, put into historical perspective, also show that the income tax burden of middle income households has been reduced to its lowest levels in many years,”

    RH

  8. Ray Hyde Avatar

    OR the less hard way (immediately and drastically reducing our population voluntarily).

    Who do you mean by “our” population?

    Reducing one U.S population is worth what, 500 Darfurians? 5000?

    RH

  9. Ray Hyde Avatar

    Times are bad, things are tough, housing is down, market in a shambles, sky is falling.

    You just can’t count on anything anymore.

    “FPL Energy, the biggest U.S. renewable-energy operator, said wind conditions in the third quarter were the worst it has seen since starting a wind-power database in the early 1970s. Electricity generated by FPL’s wind farms—esecially in prime wind-power country like Texas and the Great Plains—came in well below the expected output. FPL’s Texas wind generation, for example, was just 72% of expected output in the quarter—and just 53% in September.

    That affects the bottom line. Variable weather (including some good news for hydropower) in the end knocked off about 7 cents a share for FPL, the company said.

    Granted, variable wind is just that. FPL enjoyed a better-than-average second quarter of wind, and for the year the company’s wind-power operations have generated 98% of the juice they expected.

    But the third-quarter doldrums underscore one of the lingering concerns about massive use of renewables like wind power. Even though wind-farm developers use sophisticated tools to pick sites with the best wind, wind turbines generally only produce about one-third as much electricity as advertised. “

    Kieth Johnson, Environmental Capital

    RH

Leave a Reply