by James A. Bacon
Many economists contend that the economic deck is stacked against America’s small cities. Labor markets in the knowledge economy favor large cities; corporations are drawn to large labor markets where they have a bigger pool of prospective employees to recruit from; employees are drawn to larger labor markets where they have more employers to choose from. By this line of logic, smaller metros suffer an enduring competitive disadvantage. Geographically speaking, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
But Joel Kotkin, perhaps America’s most vocal urbanism critic, says decline is not inevitable. While the smallest metropolitan/micropolitan regions (under 100,000 residents) have lost population, a group he classifies as “small cities” (regions between 100,000 and 250,000 residents) actually has seen 13.5% population growth since 2000 — 10% percent faster than the national growth rate, and twice that of New York, Los Angeles or Chicago.
Small cities, Kotkin suggests, are large enough to support the basic infrastructure — hospitals, schools, airports, broadband — critical to economic growth. Not all have prospered, but many have. He categorizes the successful small cities into four categories: (1) Boomer Boomtowns, which are attracting retiring Boomers; (2) Energy Towns, which are benefiting from the fracking revolution, (3) College Towns and (4) Government towns, which benefit from federal and state government spending, typically military spending and state capitals.
Recent performance suggests that small cities have better economic prospects than commonly acknowledged, Kotkin argues, although he quickly adds that declining government spending could hurt the Government Towns and that all small cities face a challenge of attracting young families.
Virginia’s small cities have been fair-to-middling performers in comparison to the 167 cities ranked according to a composite of four metrics: population growth, job growth, real per capita personal income growth, and growth of regional GDP per job, all between 2000 and 2012. Three of Virginia’s “small cities” fall into Kotkin’s category of College Towns. The economies of Charlottesville, Blacksburg and Harrisonburg are dominated by local state universities. (See the list above.)
I have long argued that the challenge of most of Virginia outside the urban crescent is to decline gracefully. In the long run, it is hopeless to prop up every small mill town through economic development subsidies. The best bet for Southside Virginia, Southwest Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley is not to intensify industrial recruitment — it’s to concentrate growth in cities that are large enough to potentially become self-sustaining in the knowledge economy.
I know that’s a hard pill for many to swallow, but if rural Virginians want to create a future for their children anywhere near home, it will most likely be in a city large enough to recruit and retain 21st-century jobs. As a practical matter, that means focusing resources on the five cities listed above, plus Roanoke, Lynchburg, Bristol-Abingdon and Danville.
These regions also can help themselves by embracing the smart-growth and smart-cities strategies advocated on this blog. By keeping the cost of government low, they will have more leeway to provide an attractive trade-off between taxes and urban amenities that creative-class workers are looking for.
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