Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

High Housing Costs and Virginia’s Brain Drain

—

by

James A. Bacon
in , ,

Hasta la vista!

Between 2010 and 2018 Virginia’s population grew by more than half a million residents, ranking 9th in the nation, due to strong natural increase (births over deaths) and steady international immigration. But the Old Dominion was only one of two states in the top 10 — the other was California — to experience negative net domestic migration, reports Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for the Virginia Realtor’s Association in the Realtors’ blog.

Nearby southeastern states have shown strong domestic in-migration. What’s Virginia’s problem?

According to Sturtevant, the state’s biggest challenge is recruiting and retaining young workers. In continuation of a decade-long trend, about 6,00 more 25- to 34-year-olds moved out of Virginia in 2018 than moved in 2017 and 2018. These young people aren’t fleeing economically deprived rural areas. They’re leaving the high-cost areas, particularly Northern Virginia.

Says Sturtevant: “Even though professional opportunities are attractive and wages are high, home prices have gotten so high that it is increasingly challenging for young adults to buy homes. Many have been moving to places where jobs are still good but the cost of living is lower and it is easier to buy a home.”

— JAB

Share this article

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

Comments

84 responses to “High Housing Costs and Virginia’s Brain Drain”

  1. wpeabody.fcta Avatar
    wpeabody.fcta

    IRS data shows NC cleaning Virginia’s clock. I wonder what the numbers will show, post riots and 20 new and hiked taxes.

    1. idiocracy Avatar
      idiocracy

      Hiked taxes? New slogan for Virginia: Northern Taxes. Southern Results.

  2. idiocracy Avatar
    idiocracy

    Are you kidding me? Who wouldn’t want to pay $300k for an 1100 sq ft townhouse that was slapped up overnight complete with beercans in the walls, in a neighborhood where you get to hear your neighbors screaming at each other in the wee hours of the morning, with a 1.5 hour commute each way?

    Come to Manassas, VA. Live the dream.

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead V

      So true. That made me laugh. Been like that for about 30 years now.

      1. idiocracy Avatar
        idiocracy

        Believe me, I know it’s been that way for 30 years. Even as a kid of 11 years old, when my family moved to Manassas, it didn’t take me long to figure out that Manassas isn’t quite right.

        And John Bobbitt? Isn’t that just the perfect example of the typical Manassas resident?

  3. Wahoo Avatar
    Wahoo

    My son moved from NOVA after college to Asheville, NC. So did most of his friends. It was a very easy choice.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      My oldest (college educated) moved to Nashville, the second oldest (college educated) moved to Chicago, the third oldest (college educated) still lives in Virginia but is actively looking elsewhere. The fourth oldest (college educated) lives in rural Maryland. The youngest is still in high school.

      Northern Virginia has become a disaster zone under the fiscal neglect of the Imperial Clown Show in Richmond. Leaving is an easy choice.

  4. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    It is far more than home prices. It is also quality of life in Virginia that is falling like a stone. Look at the public schools, that used to be so good. Ever higher taxes are on the way, too. Virginia is emulating California, a failing state that rational people are fleeing like off a sinking ship.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      Exactly right. It is more than housing prices. Virginia is a sinking ship being run by a new cadre of inept tax and spend Democrats.

  5. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    The Imperial Clown Show in Richmond has been pillaging the golden goose of NoVa for decades. The jobs were here, the incomes were here, the taxes were here, the investment was not. The Richmond metropolitan area has a population of 1.3m. The Washington, DC metropolitan area has a population of 6.3m, or 4.8 times more. If I-295 in Richmond can justify 4 lanes then I guess I-495 in NoVa should be 19 lanes.

    I’m in the process of incorporating a new company along with two NoVa-based partners. None of us can imagine basing the company in Virginia. The only place with the technical talent we need is NoVa and NoVa is disintegrating as the Clown Show continues to milk the area to fund things downstate. Meanwhile, taxes are skyrocketing. No thanks.

    1. TooManyTaxes Avatar
      TooManyTaxes

      RoVA efforts to fleece NoVA residents has been aided and abetted for years by our local senators and delegates who seem to prefer pandering to the jerks at the WAPO editorial board than taking care of constituents.

      I’ve lived in Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa and NoVA. It’s clear to me that the least sophisticated voters I’ve seen are from Fairfax County. Asian-American and Middle Eastern-Americans are up in arms about the proposed changes to admissions policy at TJHSST but most likely voted for the Democrats who are proposing the changes. Ditto for many European-Americans.

      1. djrippert Avatar
        djrippert

        I completely agree. Many NoVa residents came to town from failed northern cities which were brought to their knees by the same tax and spend Democrats we are electing in NoVa. They suffer from battered voter syndrome. They are so used to government failing they no longer feel any frustration when the government in their new hometown fails. Once the ship sinks they will swim off (like rats) to a new place to ruin. Look out Raleigh!

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          They didn’t go far enough.

          A NOVA resident is a Yankee who ran out of money before he reached SEVA.

          1. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            Considering that most NOVA residents have Federally-related employment, what would they want with SEVA?

          2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Uh, federal jobs? This place is filthy with them too.

            And crabcakes!

          3. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            The Federal jobs in NOVA pay more.

          4. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Yeah, but not enough to actually live there.

          5. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            Median Federal income in Northern Virginia was $113k it’s probably higher now.

            Wonder what the median private sector income in Northern Virginia is? $60k? Maybe?

          6. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            A salary of $50,000 in Norfolk, Virginia should increase to $84,635 in Fairfax, Virginia (assumptions include Homeowner, no Child Care, and Taxes are not considered. Click here to customize.)

            https://www.bestplaces.net/cost-of-living/norfolk-va/fairfax-va/50000

      2. Mom Avatar
        Mom

        Wait until they get a load of the new person in charge of TJHSST admissions

        https://www.fcps.edu/news/fcps-names-new-chief-equity-officer

        “As Chief Equity Officer, Williams will be responsible for the Ombudsman Office, the Office of Professional Learning and Family Engagement, the Hearings Office, and admissions for Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology.”

        1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
          Reed Fawell 3rd

          Oh, my God, Baltimore no less, unbelievable!!

          1. Mom Avatar
            Mom

            She’s also one of the chief theologians of the religion of Implicit Bias

  6. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    Well, the only reason we stayed in NoVA after retirement was our children decided to move to NoVA because they thought it might be better than north NJ, but they are not so sure now.

    But let’s face it, NoVA is a place where people are transferred later career either typically due to military/gov jobs, or support of that. Also don’t forget NoVA lost ExxonMobil to Texas a few years ago, and that was the biggest non-gov big company around here to my knowledge.

    So when you retire, you ask yourself: Do I want to buy a nice car and pay my life away in annual car taxes PPT, or move to a place where you can buy a nice older persons, like cushy Avalon, in peace. and get better older-persons state tax policy.

    Actually cushy F150 pick-ups seem to be a popular reason to move.

    1. idiocracy Avatar
      idiocracy

      So a significant percentage of folks living in NoVA are there because they had a choice:

      1)Move to NoVA

      2)Find another job

      No wonder it is what it is.

    2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      Some years ago I played golf with a guy who taught at UofM, College Park for 20+ years. Took a cut in pay to take a position at CNU. (I think a divorce might have been his motivation. Talked about his kids alot. Never mentioned his wife.). Aside from his kids, his main topic of conversation was how the Peninsula quality of life was so much better than NoVa and Maryland.

      Besides, we have real crabcakes down here.

      1. TBill Avatar
        TBill

        Had to look up CNU… NoVA transplant litmus test, and I flunked.

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          It’s okay. Tough to know of it. It’s a 3rd tier Va University filled with kids from New Jersey.

  7. wpeabody.fcta Avatar
    wpeabody.fcta

    IRS data shows NC cleaning Virginia’s clock. I wonder what the numbers will show, post riots and 20 new and hiked taxes.

    1. idiocracy Avatar
      idiocracy

      Hiked taxes? New slogan for Virginia: Northern Taxes. Southern Results.

  8. idiocracy Avatar
    idiocracy

    Are you kidding me? Who wouldn’t want to pay $300k for an 1100 sq ft townhouse that was slapped up overnight complete with beercans in the walls, in a neighborhood where you get to hear your neighbors screaming at each other in the wee hours of the morning, with a 1.5 hour commute each way?

    Come to Manassas, VA. Live the dream.

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead V

      So true. That made me laugh. Been like that for about 30 years now.

      1. idiocracy Avatar
        idiocracy

        Believe me, I know it’s been that way for 30 years. Even as a kid of 11 years old, when my family moved to Manassas, it didn’t take me long to figure out that Manassas isn’t quite right.

        And John Bobbitt? Isn’t that just the perfect example of the typical Manassas resident?

  9. Wahoo Avatar
    Wahoo

    My son moved from NOVA after college to Asheville, NC. So did most of his friends. It was a very easy choice.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      My oldest (college educated) moved to Nashville, the second oldest (college educated) moved to Chicago, the third oldest (college educated) still lives in Virginia but is actively looking elsewhere. The fourth oldest (college educated) lives in rural Maryland. The youngest is still in high school.

      Northern Virginia has become a disaster zone under the fiscal neglect of the Imperial Clown Show in Richmond. Leaving is an easy choice.

  10. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    It is far more than home prices. It is also quality of life in Virginia that is falling like a stone. Look at the public schools, that used to be so good. Ever higher taxes are on the way, too. Virginia is emulating California, a failing state that rational people are fleeing like off a sinking ship.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      Exactly right. It is more than housing prices. Virginia is a sinking ship being run by a new cadre of inept tax and spend Democrats.

  11. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    The Imperial Clown Show in Richmond has been pillaging the golden goose of NoVa for decades. The jobs were here, the incomes were here, the taxes were here, the investment was not. The Richmond metropolitan area has a population of 1.3m. The Washington, DC metropolitan area has a population of 6.3m, or 4.8 times more. If I-295 in Richmond can justify 4 lanes then I guess I-495 in NoVa should be 19 lanes.

    I’m in the process of incorporating a new company along with two NoVa-based partners. None of us can imagine basing the company in Virginia. The only place with the technical talent we need is NoVa and NoVa is disintegrating as the Clown Show continues to milk the area to fund things downstate. Meanwhile, taxes are skyrocketing. No thanks.

    1. TooManyTaxes Avatar
      TooManyTaxes

      RoVA efforts to fleece NoVA residents has been aided and abetted for years by our local senators and delegates who seem to prefer pandering to the jerks at the WAPO editorial board than taking care of constituents.

      I’ve lived in Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa and NoVA. It’s clear to me that the least sophisticated voters I’ve seen are from Fairfax County. Asian-American and Middle Eastern-Americans are up in arms about the proposed changes to admissions policy at TJHSST but most likely voted for the Democrats who are proposing the changes. Ditto for many European-Americans.

      1. djrippert Avatar
        djrippert

        I completely agree. Many NoVa residents came to town from failed northern cities which were brought to their knees by the same tax and spend Democrats we are electing in NoVa. They suffer from battered voter syndrome. They are so used to government failing they no longer feel any frustration when the government in their new hometown fails. Once the ship sinks they will swim off (like rats) to a new place to ruin. Look out Raleigh!

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          They didn’t go far enough.

          A NOVA resident is a Yankee who ran out of money before he reached SEVA.

          1. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            Considering that most NOVA residents have Federally-related employment, what would they want with SEVA?

          2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Uh, federal jobs? This place is filthy with them too.

            And crabcakes!

          3. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            The Federal jobs in NOVA pay more.

          4. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            Yeah, but not enough to actually live there.

          5. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            Median Federal income in Northern Virginia was $113k it’s probably higher now.

            Wonder what the median private sector income in Northern Virginia is? $60k? Maybe?

          6. Nancy_Naive Avatar
            Nancy_Naive

            A salary of $50,000 in Norfolk, Virginia should increase to $84,635 in Fairfax, Virginia (assumptions include Homeowner, no Child Care, and Taxes are not considered. Click here to customize.)

            https://www.bestplaces.net/cost-of-living/norfolk-va/fairfax-va/50000

      2. Mom Avatar
        Mom

        Wait until they get a load of the new person in charge of TJHSST admissions

        https://www.fcps.edu/news/fcps-names-new-chief-equity-officer

        “As Chief Equity Officer, Williams will be responsible for the Ombudsman Office, the Office of Professional Learning and Family Engagement, the Hearings Office, and admissions for Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology.”

        1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
          Reed Fawell 3rd

          Oh, my God, Baltimore no less, unbelievable!!

          1. Mom Avatar
            Mom

            She’s also one of the chief theologians of the religion of Implicit Bias

  12. TBill Avatar
    TBill

    Well, the only reason we stayed in NoVA after retirement was our children decided to move to NoVA because they thought it might be better than north NJ, but they are not so sure now.

    But let’s face it, NoVA is a place where people are transferred later career either typically due to military/gov jobs, or support of that. Also don’t forget NoVA lost ExxonMobil to Texas a few years ago, and that was the biggest non-gov big company around here to my knowledge.

    So when you retire, you ask yourself: Do I want to buy a nice car and pay my life away in annual car taxes PPT, or move to a place where you can buy a nice older persons, like cushy Avalon, in peace. and get better older-persons state tax policy.

    Actually cushy F150 pick-ups seem to be a popular reason to move.

    1. idiocracy Avatar
      idiocracy

      So a significant percentage of folks living in NoVA are there because they had a choice:

      1)Move to NoVA

      2)Find another job

      No wonder it is what it is.

    2. Nancy_Naive Avatar
      Nancy_Naive

      Some years ago I played golf with a guy who taught at UofM, College Park for 20+ years. Took a cut in pay to take a position at CNU. (I think a divorce might have been his motivation. Talked about his kids alot. Never mentioned his wife.). Aside from his kids, his main topic of conversation was how the Peninsula quality of life was so much better than NoVa and Maryland.

      Besides, we have real crabcakes down here.

      1. TBill Avatar
        TBill

        Had to look up CNU… NoVA transplant litmus test, and I flunked.

        1. Nancy_Naive Avatar
          Nancy_Naive

          It’s okay. Tough to know of it. It’s a 3rd tier Va University filled with kids from New Jersey.

  13. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
    Eric the Half a Troll

    We’ve been in Loudoun since 94. Seen lots of changes but I can think of no better place to live in the US. Close to family, close to nature, close to the city. Ample employment opportunity. Great schools. Great people. Great communities. We will be staying here for the duration as will at least some of our kids.

    Housing seems high (and it is) but salaries are also high and real estate continues to appreciate. No where is perfect but LC is pretty dang close as far as I can see.

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead V

      Try were great schools once.

      1. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
        Eric the Half a Troll

        LC schools remain best of class.

      2. idiocracy Avatar
        idiocracy

        And he obviously forgot that great housing crash of 2008.

    2. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      LC was a wonderful place to live until you realized the COL. When the median house costs is $525,000 for a townhouse and zero land you’ve got a problem. Housing isn’t just high, child care is high, groceries are high, gas it high. Conclusion everything is elevated because of where you live.

      A high salary just make you middle class thinking you’ve got more than you actually have.

      https://patch.com/virginia/oldtownalexandria/heres-how-much-you-need-earn-live-anywhere-virginia

      When you require $112K plus to live modestly, you’ve got a f’n problem and zero touch with reality.

      1. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
        Eric the Half a Troll

        Hasn’t been my experience. Houses in my neighborhood run around $500-600k and all are on an acre or more. They aren’t McMansions which run $800K or more easily but are really nice 3-5 BR homes. Gas, groceries, and others are not significantly higher than other metro areas. Salaries, OTOH are and support the local residential lifestyle.

        There is a reason the RE market remains tight and has been for most of the time I have lived here. The Greenway Toll does indeed suck.

        1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
          Dick Hall-Sizemore

          Although I don’t live in NoVa, my daughter does. Therefore, I am familiar with the area. My perception is in line with Eric’s: for the most part, prices for goods and services are about what they are in Richmond. It is the price of housing that is the killer. I have checked on housing prices in the area. The closest, other than a tiny condo or town house, that I could afford would probably be in Prince William. I just as well stay in Richmond.

          My daughter’s house had fire damage last spring. While the repairs were being made, they had a short-term rental in Falls Church. The circumstances will illustrate the housing situation. It was a large, older frame house, in a quiet neighborhood, that had been completely modernized. It was very nice. It had been purchased, sight unseen, by an American couple living in Germany whose company was transferring the husband to the Northern Virginia area, but was delaying his return due to COVID. The monthly rent was $5,000 (my daughter’s insurance company covered it), which was less than the owner’s mortgage payment. I figured the sales price to have been more than $1 million. Before finally moving into the house, the owner planned some expensive renovations, including putting in AC in the second floor. Many people up there have lots of money and are driving prices up. With a change in administrations pending, there will be more churning in the real estate market and prices will continue to go up. As they say in real estate: Location, location, location.

          1. TooManyTaxes Avatar
            TooManyTaxes

            Real estate prices in Fairfax County have been increasing. However, before the COVID-19 impacts occurred, prices for higher-end housing were relatively flat for almost ten years. Prices for lower-end housing were increasing faster. For example, price estimates for our relatively smaller house in McLean didn’t overtake the price we paid in 2008 until this year. In contrast, the rental property we own in Manassas Park (Prince William County) started appreciating the very same year we bought it – 2019.

            Too many people ignore the impacts of real estate tax bill increases on the price of housing, both owned and rented. A few Democrats on the Fairfax County BoS were bemoaning the fact that increasing spending on “desired” programs would cause tax increases, which, in turn, makes housing less affordable. Duh!

          2. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            Toomanytaxes:

            If you had bought a townhouse in Manassas Park for the $500k it would have cost you back in 2006….

            You STILL would be underwater. It’s only worth around $300k right now.

        2. Matt Adams Avatar
          Matt Adams

          ” They aren’t McMansions which run $800K or more easily but are really nice 3-5 BR homes” That is absolutely false, given that LC is massive I don’t know where you live in it. The 5 bedroom homes in Chantilly were starting at $900k.

          “Gas, groceries, and others are not significantly higher than other metro areas. Salaries, OTOH are and support the local residential lifestyle.” Yes, yes they are and no the incomes don’t support that at all.

          “There is a reason the RE market remains tight and has been for most of the time I have lived here. The Greenway Toll does indeed suck.”

          The reason the market is high is because of proximity to DC and no one can afford to buy a house in Fairfax or closer. The Greenway, a fixed rate of $4.60 that you get a discount on if you traverse it more than 15 times a month? That is nothing, you’re missing the Dulles Toll Road and or I-66 IBW.

          Given your statement on the “Greenway” I’d venture to guess you live near Leesburg, so you’re between 40 and 60 miles from DC. Yeah, it’s cheaper to live there but those 40 miles take 2.5 hours to travel.

          1. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            Oh, just think of how much goods and services in NoVA would cost if the service sector employees didn’t (largely) consist of people living 15 to a house in the slums of Manassas and Herndon.

            Northern Virginia is no place for unskilled or blue collar labor. Fortunately for the local economy, most of the people doing that work have yet to figure that out.

  14. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
    Eric the Half a Troll

    We’ve been in Loudoun since 94. Seen lots of changes but I can think of no better place to live in the US. Close to family, close to nature, close to the city. Ample employment opportunity. Great schools. Great people. Great communities. We will be staying here for the duration as will at least some of our kids.

    Housing seems high (and it is) but salaries are also high and real estate continues to appreciate. No where is perfect but LC is pretty dang close as far as I can see.

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead V

      Try were great schools once.

      1. idiocracy Avatar
        idiocracy

        And he obviously forgot that great housing crash of 2008.

        1. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
          Eric the Half a Troll

          I don’t weep for the McMansions that is true. I never lost value on my house though and my neighborhood is very much in demand.

          1. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            *EVERY* neighborhood within 50 miles of DC is very much in demand right now.

      2. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
        Eric the Half a Troll

        LC schools remain best of class.

        1. James Wyatt Whitehead V Avatar
          James Wyatt Whitehead V

          Best of class is closed. Your tax dollars down the drain not mine.

    2. Matt Adams Avatar
      Matt Adams

      LC was a wonderful place to live until you realized the COL. When the median house costs is $525,000 for a townhouse and zero land you’ve got a problem. Housing isn’t just high, child care is high, groceries are high, gas it high. Conclusion everything is elevated because of where you live.

      A high salary just make you middle class thinking you’ve got more than you actually have.

      https://patch.com/virginia/oldtownalexandria/heres-how-much-you-need-earn-live-anywhere-virginia

      When you require $112K plus to live modestly, you’ve got a f’n problem and zero touch with reality.

      1. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
        Eric the Half a Troll

        Hasn’t been my experience. Houses in my neighborhood run around $500-600k and all are on an acre or more. They aren’t McMansions which run $800K or more easily but are really nice 3-5 BR homes. Gas, groceries, and others are not significantly higher than other metro areas. Salaries, OTOH are and support the local residential lifestyle.

        There is a reason the RE market remains tight and has been for most of the time I have lived here. The Greenway Toll does indeed suck.

        1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
          Dick Hall-Sizemore

          Although I don’t live in NoVa, my daughter does. Therefore, I am familiar with the area. My perception is in line with Eric’s: for the most part, prices for goods and services are about what they are in Richmond. It is the price of housing that is the killer. I have checked on housing prices in the area. The closest, other than a tiny condo or town house, that I could afford would probably be in Prince William. I just as well stay in Richmond.

          My daughter’s house had fire damage last spring. While the repairs were being made, they had a short-term rental in Falls Church. The circumstances will illustrate the housing situation. It was a large, older frame house, in a quiet neighborhood, that had been completely modernized. It was very nice. It had been purchased, sight unseen, by an American couple living in Germany whose company was transferring the husband to the Northern Virginia area, but was delaying his return due to COVID. The monthly rent was $5,000 (my daughter’s insurance company covered it), which was less than the owner’s mortgage payment. I figured the sales price to have been more than $1 million. Before finally moving into the house, the owner planned some expensive renovations, including putting in AC in the second floor. Many people up there have lots of money and are driving prices up. With a change in administrations pending, there will be more churning in the real estate market and prices will continue to go up. As they say in real estate: Location, location, location.

          1. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
            Reed Fawell 3rd

            You just proved the opposite of your initial assertion. No Dick, up is not down.

          2. Eric the Half a Troll Avatar
            Eric the Half a Troll

            I agree housing prices are too high. especially in close to the city. Location is everything but this is nothing new. McLean has been this way for decades. The effect has simply moved further out. Nonetheless, LC and the DC area have a great deal to offer any family. We’ve tried to figure out if there is a better place for us to retire to and simply can’t identify any so here we stay. YMMV, of course…

          3. TooManyTaxes Avatar
            TooManyTaxes

            Real estate prices in Fairfax County have been increasing. However, before the COVID-19 impacts occurred, prices for higher-end housing were relatively flat for almost ten years. Prices for lower-end housing were increasing faster. For example, price estimates for our relatively smaller house in McLean didn’t overtake the price we paid in 2008 until this year. In contrast, the rental property we own in Manassas Park (Prince William County) started appreciating the very same year we bought it – 2019.

            Too many people ignore the impacts of real estate tax bill increases on the price of housing, both owned and rented. A few Democrats on the Fairfax County BoS were bemoaning the fact that increasing spending on “desired” programs would cause tax increases, which, in turn, makes housing less affordable. Duh!

          4. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            Toomanytaxes:

            If you had bought a townhouse in Manassas Park for the $500k it would have cost you back in 2006….

            You STILL would be underwater. It’s only worth around $300k right now.

        2. Matt Adams Avatar
          Matt Adams

          ” They aren’t McMansions which run $800K or more easily but are really nice 3-5 BR homes” That is absolutely false, given that LC is massive I don’t know where you live in it. The 5 bedroom homes in Chantilly were starting at $900k.

          “Gas, groceries, and others are not significantly higher than other metro areas. Salaries, OTOH are and support the local residential lifestyle.” Yes, yes they are and no the incomes don’t support that at all.

          “There is a reason the RE market remains tight and has been for most of the time I have lived here. The Greenway Toll does indeed suck.”

          The reason the market is high is because of proximity to DC and no one can afford to buy a house in Fairfax or closer. The Greenway, a fixed rate of $4.60 that you get a discount on if you traverse it more than 15 times a month? That is nothing, you’re missing the Dulles Toll Road and or I-66 IBW.

          Given your statement on the “Greenway” I’d venture to guess you live near Leesburg, so you’re between 40 and 60 miles from DC. Yeah, it’s cheaper to live there but those 40 miles take 2.5 hours to travel.

          1. idiocracy Avatar
            idiocracy

            Oh, just think of how much goods and services in NoVA would cost if the service sector employees didn’t (largely) consist of people living 15 to a house in the slums of Manassas and Herndon.

            Northern Virginia is no place for unskilled or blue collar labor. Fortunately for the local economy, most of the people doing that work have yet to figure that out.

          2. Matt Adams Avatar
            Matt Adams

            idiocracy, of this I agree. The number of houses that are basically subdivided to pay the mortgage, is rather humorous.

            Oh the goods and services prices are very high compared to anywhere else in Virginia.

            We lived in NOVA when we had our daughter, a full time daycare center was $435 a week, it’s $245 in Fredericksburg and that’s on the high end.

  15. Rowinguy Avatar
    Rowinguy

    Dr. Sturdevant does not show her sources, but they differ substantially from these:

    https://www.prb.org/usdata/geography/virginia (based on Census Bureau figures) that shows over the 2010-19 period, Virginia had a net migration of +179,174

  16. Rowinguy Avatar
    Rowinguy

    Dr. Sturdevant does not show her sources, but they differ substantially from these:

    https://www.prb.org/usdata/geography/virginia (based on Census Bureau figures) that shows over the 2010-19 period, Virginia had a net migration of +179,174

Leave a Reply

Read More