Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

by James A. Bacon

I’m so confused. We’ve been hearing for years that air pollution from fossil fuel plants disproportionately impacts minorities. Take, for example, a 2018 Environmental Protection Agency study which found that African-Americans faced a 54% higher health burden from particulate air emissions like soot compared to the overall population. Systemic racism was the culprit. Numerous other studies have reached similar conclusions.

To address the systemic racism embedded in the U.S. energy system, greenies have touted the generation of electricity from non-polluting energy sources such as wind and solar. (Let’s set aside the fact that air pollution is displaced in many cases to unregulated mines in Africa, not known for their health and safety conditions, which produce the materials used in wind turbines and solar cells.)

Now comes a study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology which finds that the health benefits of wind power could quadruple by dialing down production from the most polluting fossil-fuel-based power plants when wind is available. But the study, published in Science Advances, had a disturbing caveat: only 30% of the benefits would reach disadvantaged communities.

“We found that prioritizing health is a great way to maximize benefits in a widespread way across the U.S., which is a very positive thing. But it suggests it’s not going to address disparities,” says MIT co-author Noelle Selin.

An MIT publication explains how the conclusions were reached:

The team then used a sophisticated atmospheric chemistry model to simulate the wind patterns and chemical transport of emissions across the country, and determined where and at what concentrations the emissions generated fine particulates and ozone — two pollutants that are known to damage air quality and human health. Finally, the researchers mapped the general demographic populations across the country, based on U.S. census data, and applied a standard epidemiological approach to calculate a population’s health cost as a result of their pollution exposure.

This analysis revealed that, in the year 2014, a general cost-saving approach to displacing fossil-fuel-based energy in times of wind energy resulted in $2 billion in health benefits, or savings, across the country. A smaller share of these benefits went to disadvantaged populations, such as communities of color and low-income communities, though this disparity varied by state.

In sum, generating pollution from fossil fuels creates disproportionately large negative impacts on minorities but cutting pollution from fossil fuels disproportionately yields disproportionately small benefits to minorities.

This is what I call damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t racism. No matter what you do, it’s racist.

It is doubtful that anyone in Virginia will give much credence to the MIT study because it will undercut the narrative that fossil fuels are racist and, thus, undermine the social-justice justification for Dominion’s offshore wind project and a zero-carbon electric grid. But I could be wrong. I’ll be keeping an eye on The Washington Post, the Richmond Times-Dispatch, The Virginian-Pilot and the Virginia Mercury to see if they acknowledge how minorities are short-changed by wind power.


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43 responses to “Heads I Win, Tails You Lose”

  1. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    The assumptions and wild-ass guesses behind “studies” like that based on models make them useless. All studies are wrong, some are useful, that means many are useless.

    Dense urban areas with concentrations of vehicle traffic and often poor tree cover and urban heat island effects have more air pollution. Duh. They also have greater populations of low-income folks. Duh. Green leafy suburbs far from the interstates and 18-wheelers have far less. Another giant duh.

  2. JAB is so easily confused by a matter of degree.

  3. Deckplates Avatar

    The cost of gasoline, water, food, and electricity are not charged to consumers based on some classification of human genetics. However, the competing choices or options are reduced when the government mandates, well anything. Costs go up for all when government mandates are in place. This should not be confused with not allowing polluting or the mandating of the clean production of food – both beneficial to all people.

    So, if gas prices go up, either by government controls or taxes then all people will be affected. So, does that affect minorities either more or less? BTW, what are minorities anyhow? Are we just talking about one or two minorities, in our country? Or all people who are “classified” (by someone) as minorities? What has Thomas Sowell said, about the social economic effects of government mandates on all people?

    Our continual transition to cleaner and cheaper power will require more innovations to include production & storage. We are not there yet. A president’s EO, mandating use of windmills, will not magically get us off fossil fuels and nuclear power nor will it speed up the transition. Due to its lack of veracity, it is just another government mandate, which will incur more economic and social costs. This has to be done with more wisdom, and not just looking at only one or two possible solutions. How does it help with making everything “racial,” and denigrate people by stating that they are “disadvantaged” due to their race.

    1. I have one question: Why would we want to be off nuclear power?

      1. Deckplates Avatar

        The language in the EO suggest that “Sec. 207. Renewable Energy…” is the solution. Others have put nuclear energy, in addition to fossil fuels, as the culprit. For example, California in replacing their nuclear power plants with solar panels. Those folks paid a price for not thinking about that and suffered the blackouts & brownouts. So, a lot of “show & tell” for a weak idea.

        The transition to something more efficient and less costly than the large nuclear plants, in use today, most probably will take a 2 -3 decades (my best guess). Those plants, as they are today, may well be supported and replaced by the Small Modular Reactor, which are being built. A few are operating today. So, fossil fuel, SMR, perhaps some new and improved (FUTURE) windmill, and a different kind of solar panel, and others should all be on the table. Making power is not the only problem, as distribution and storage are still problems to be solved.

        Considering our continuing ability to solve technical problems, we may in the next few years build an evolved SMR which is smaller and more efficient. All the while reducing the cost to operate through their lifecycle. As we have seen this is NOT just a technological issue, as well as a social & economic issue.

  4. As the distance increases from where power is generated to where its used, many negatives also increase.

    Greater energy loss
    More opportunity for power disruptions
    Higher cost

    I would favor more emphasis on Advanced Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)

    https://www.energy.gov/ne/advanced-small-modular-reactors-smrs

  5. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Your conclusion that this is damned if you do or damned if you don’t racism is faulty. As Steve points out, poor (often minority) communities are disproportionately affected by particulates and smog emitted by traffic. This is the type of carbon-based pollution that will be least affected by wind power. Therefore, one would not expect wind power to ameliorate all the negative health effects experienced by poorer, minorities as a result of pollution. Nevertheless, they would share some of the benefits.

    Additionally, as Wayne points out 30 percent of the country’s population is in disadvantaged communities. If those communities are getting 30 percent of the health-related benefits from wind energy, then that seems proportional.

    Besides, it seems you are employing a straw man. Did the MIT study indicate that the disadvantaged communities getting only 30 percent of the health benefits from wind rather that 54 percent was racist?

    1. If those communities are getting 30 percent of the health-related benefits from wind energy, then that seems proportional.

      To you and me, yes. But not to one of creators of the study: We found that prioritizing health is a great way to maximize benefits in a widespread way across the U.S., which is a very positive thing. But it suggests it’s not going to address disparities,” says MIT co-author Noelle Selin.

  6. William O'Keefe Avatar
    William O’Keefe

    The magic of substituting correlation for causation and pushing co-benefits makes almost anything possible!

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      naw, Rosie got it right: ” you use it as a wedge to just throw up your hands and opt to give up on wind power. It’s racist no matter what!”

      yep. pro forma.

  7. Instead of reading the article and understanding the complexity of the issue, you use it as a wedge to just throw up your hands and opt to give up on wind power. It’s racist no matter what!

    …unless you read the article, which just notes that wind power will still provide health benefits but shouldn’t be treated as a panacea. It’s a multifaceted problem that requires more than one solution.

  8. LarrytheG Avatar

    Good Lord! Fossil Fuels per se are NOT “racist” nor are wind turbines made in caves in Africa any more or less than other pieces and parts of energy infrastructure.

    What has impacted some is WHERE power plants, highways, wastewater treatment plants, etc have been sited LIKE right smack through disadvantaged communities in Richmond!

    Power Plants have often been sited NOT near upscale neighborhoods , ergo to places where there is less money for legal challenges.

    and just imagine who the communities were that got the coal ash dumps or the mountain top removals for coal mining?

    Much of this has changed over time as early on proposals are vetted for impacts on disadvantaged communities.

    Interesting article in Cardinal News this morning:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f90bafe12eb93ecdcbad0c883ec0db8f2f76c8704fbdf343efe29db0a50462e5.jpg

    but the odd thing is that they are WAY BIGGER than the critters on Air Craft carriers!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f159e1d5c8c79990aa31449269ef62848e76cd4452284cca21145d3507d2cf0a.jpg

    I had no idea that Dominion had them in their “plan” but apparently they DO and can do SOON!

    And I BET that Jim Bacon and Haner don’t want one near them !

    1. I would welcome one on the 70 acre parcel adjacent to my property.

      Can’t speak for my neighbors, though…

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Keeps some damned developer from throwing up a bunch of substandard stick houses and putting 5,000 more cars per day on your two-lane road.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          AND provide permanent Quality Jobs! But it would take farming land AND spoil the view!

        2. Bingo!

          Plus, the parcel is land-locked and buying a 50′ right of way from me is the easiest way to get access to the main highway. And, the cherry on top is that I wouldn’t even be able to see their access road from my house.

          🙂

        3. Bingo!

          Plus, the parcel is land-locked and buying a 50′ right of way from me is the easiest way to get access to the main highway. And, the cherry on top is that I wouldn’t even be able to see their access road from my house.

          🙂

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            They’ll drop the speed limit to 35 and put in a stoplight. Be careful for what you wish.

          2. I had not thought of that. I will add it to the minus column…

          3. Here’s one for the plus column:

            If you live near critical infrastructure your roads will be given top priority for plowing, clearing out fallen trees, etc.

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Without my glasses, it looks like a cemetery.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        It does… but look at the cars in the parking lot… it’s WAY bigger than one of those “SMRs” on a carrier!

        The other thing. To this point, they’ll cost quite a bit more than gas/wind/solar and I suspect that’s why we don’t hear much from the OSW is “bad” crowd.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          Yup. It’s shades of Star Wars…

          Some day, all this back and forth will come across as folks arguing about whale oil lamp “technology”.

      2. I have my glasses on and it still looks like a cemetery.

        Maybe that’s not a bad thing, though. Dominion could build mausoleums on the grounds of the SMRs and sell/lease crypts to help offset the construction cost of the plant.

    3. I’m with WayneS. Put an SMR near me!

      And regarding your comment about coal below:

      “and just imagine who the communities were that got the coal ash dumps or the mountain top removals for coal mining?”

      Natural gas doesn’t produce as much CO2 as coal. Nor does it put tons of sulfur into the air resulting in acid rain which is hurting forests. It’s great for steady electrical production or standby capacity to accommodate peak needs. It’s also good to pair nuclear with natural gas as nuclear is steady, but doesn’t lend itself to short term starts and stops.

      The transition could happen quickly, but for the very people who claim to represent the environment.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        That’s true but coal STILL produces about 20% of the electricity. How do you want to reduce that?

        1. Can’t believe you are asking that.

          Read my comments again and perhaps it will come to you. I’ve even bolded it for you.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            60 yr old nukes that melt down and require forever storage of waste are not good sources, have similar long-term effects as coal.

            SMRs, which I support are not yet ready for prime-time and the cost estimate are all over the map no different than the unknowns with OSW.

            Wind and solar have a place also , their own impacts, advantages and disadvantages.

            Representing moderate folks who support wind/solar/nukes as extremists is dumb.

  9. Stephen Haner Avatar
    Stephen Haner

    The assumptions and wild-ass guesses behind “studies” like that based on models make them useless. All models are wrong, some are useful, but that means many are wrong AND useless.

    Dense urban areas with concentrations of vehicle traffic and often poor tree cover and urban heat island effects have more air pollution, PM 2.5, ozone, etc. Duh. They also have greater populations of low-income folks. Duh. Green leafy suburbs far from the interstates, diesel bus routes and 18-wheelers making deliveries have far less. Another giant duh. A gazillion turbines changes none of that. (More use of EVs in city driving situations certainly could.)

    1. The answer is EVs?

      You may already be aware, but:

      “What’s soft, silvery-white and could make it harder for the world to go green?”

      “It might sound like the start of a joke, but it’s most certainly not one. The answer to the question is lithium, and the bad news for the world is that it potentially has nowhere near enough of it to power all the electric vehicle (EV) batteries it wants – and needs.”

      https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-world-enough-lithium-resources/

  10. Carter Melton Avatar
    Carter Melton

    Yep…mix equal parts of the new racism, 21st century McCarthism, and the voodoo social theories, snake oil, and psychobabble of dei/wokeism and you have today’s weapon of choice to damage/destroy ideas, individuals and organizations you elect to target.

    1. Talk about gibberish. This would do Kerry proud.

  11. But the study, published in Science Advances, had a disturbing caveat: Only 30% of the benefits would reach disadvantaged communities.

    Did the people creating this “study” bother to determine what percentage of communities in the United States are “disadvantaged”?

    Wait! I have that number right here, from the Institute for Energy Justice: Amazingly, it’s right at 30%:

    The number of communities identified as disadvantaged communities according to this draft methodology totals around 30 percent of the U.S. population.

    https://iejusa.org/justice-40-and-community-definition-blog/#:~:text=The%20number%20of%20communities%20identified,percent%20of%20the%20U.S.%20population.

    Hardly “disturbing” to a rational person.

    Can we please move on to the next bogus claim of social injustice/inequity?

    1. “Equity” in benefits from clean generation is not enough, we need reparations for excess pollution past. Of course there are limits to how far back to go until we are all serfs in the muck.

      1. …we need reparations for excess pollution past.

        Pretty much. It certainly appears to be a factor in Joe Biden’s “Justice40 Initiative”.

      2. …we need reparations for excess pollution past.

        Pretty much. It certainly appears to be a factor in Joe Biden’s “Justice40 Initiative”.

  12. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Doesn’t matter. We’re all going to get equally sucked into a massive wormhole when they upscale the fusion reaction chamber.

    Oh, but before that happens, Powell’s going to continue to raise rates until companies begin layoffs and he gets the unemployment number back over 6%. That’ll curb inflation!

    1. Doesn’t matter. We’re all going to get equally sucked into a massive wormhole when they upscale the fusion reaction chamber.

      The very definition of equity…

      1. As Tom Lehrer used to sing “We’ll all go together when we go”. He was talking fission not fusion, opposite ends of the curve but still lots of potential.

  13. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    We have almost as fact I think that Liberals have intense hated of the American fossil fuel industry. Now Liberals are coming up with models, somewhat analogous to climate change models, which “prove” (if you accept the models) that infinitesimal trace pollution from fossil fuels is causing (undocumented) premature deaths of millions of Americans. In short, extreme Chemophobia is considered the most noble cause since Lincoln abolished slavery.

    Why shouldn’t the Precautionary Principle be the law of the land? That means all processes, that Liberals do not like, must be stopped. All pollution must be stopped, all combustion must be stopped, American industry must be stopped.

    Everything can be more moralistically manufactured in 3rd world Countries that are not yet worried about trace pollution. The American human body (or at least our mentality) has advanced to that stage making stuff is now unethical. We will *assemble* EV’s as our contribution to society (parts made elsewhere).

    I do not see any change to this until the baby boomers die off, which means I will not see the change.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      see, the problem is the facts that are being ignored by the fossil fuel “lovers”:

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cb8c0e319f43a14d29d56972db8fa5464a19c9789cce4143879b42082ac784ed.jpg

    2. Exactly. Perhaps these people should take a little time to imagine how many premature deaths we’d have had throughout our history if fossil fuel generated electricity, automobiles, and widespread natural gas service to homes and businesses had never been developed.

      We’d either have been freezing to death in winter or continuing to heat our homes and offices by burning wood. Talk about unbreathable air causing health problems and premature deaths.

      We’d either be eating poorly prepared food or cooking it by burning wood. More air pollution and more premature deaths.

      Plus, Burning wood releases more CO2 than burning coal, so let’s talk about accelerated anthropogenic climate change, shall we?

      Without fossil fuel burning automobiles, trucks, heavy equipment, etc., we’d be up to our necks in horse sh!t if we tried to have a truly developed society. “Hello streams and rivers! We never developed electricity in our country so we lack the technology to adequately treat human and animal waste before we dump it on you”. Talk about communicable diseases and premature deaths.

      And think of all the medical advances that would not have been made if researchers had to work by candlelight without lab equipment or computers.

      But the know-it-alls who denigrate fossil fuels do not ever seem to stop and think how polluted our environment might be, and how many people would be sick and dying, without the benefits they brought, and continue to bring.

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