In the comments section following WHAT ARE THEY THINKING Groveton gives the League of Tiger Riders some things to think about. In this post we have taken several of Groveton’s key observations and re-sequenced them to put the Tiger Rider issue in the spotlight.
Lets start with Groveton saying:
“I agree with EMR about the wealth gap and the inevitable consequences of that gap.”
The Wealth Gap may not be the most obvious front burner driver of society dysfunction but failure to address it NOW may make all the other problems and their solutions moot.
The Tiger Riders who want to stimulate Supercapitalism took down the sign that read: “Welcome to those who want to join us and make a great nation-state.”
In its place they put up two signs:
One sign says: “Come here and get filthy rich, no commitment to hard work or citizen participation required.”
The other sign reads: “We have given up the whole idea of hard work and real creativity. We are into entertainment, consumption and speculation. If you want to work hard doing what you will never see anyone doing on TV you can be better off here than you can where you live now.” (And by the way we are leaving the back door unlocked so you can sneak in…)
When “The Shape of the Future” was written, population was headed towards stability with the long term prospect of slowly decreasing. Those two signs drafted in the 80s and erected in the 90s changed that big time.
Those at the bottom of the Ziggurat who do not know any way to get ahead but to work hard came in droves via the front door and the back door.
Those who had special skills or capital to invest also came in droves. (A lot of that capital came from selling oil and junk to US of A consumers.)
Those who are smart enough to have skills and capital recognize that US of A is like an athlete who has been too long on steroids – cheap energy. They are smart and want to be able to bail when things turn south.
Here Groveton adds an important observation about which I was not previously aware:
“For example, there is a trend among Americans of European extraction to apply for dual citizenship with the European country of their heritage. Of course, as a citizen in any EU country you can live in any other EU country.”
Keep your options open!
Groveton goes on: “America is aging. That’s a demographic fact.”
A caveat: The percentage of those who are over X is going up but there are a lot of young immigrants and even more children of immigrants – especially children of illegals who want to have children born in the US of A.
Back to Groveton: “However, the wealth is aging faster and this is a bigger issue. If you look at the percentage of national wealth held by Americans of different age levels – the older are getting richer relative to the younger over time.”
Very true. The children of “the greatest generation” are stealing from their children and grandchildren for reasons we spell out in “The Shape of the Future.” Former Interior Secretary Stewart Udall and his wife wrote a powerful apology to their grandchildren on this topic. It is worth a read – look it up in the 31 March High Country News.
Groveton observes: “The biggest socioeconomic change is the shift in wealth to the elderly (or relatively elderly). The elderly retire, they stop getting salaries, they have more flexibility as to where (and how) they live.”
Caveat: With the current downturn and hemorrhaging of retirement funds a lot of the older folks will be working a lot longer. Since one of the few real benefits of technology over the past three decades is that those at the top of the Ziggurat are living longer and are healthier, they can work longer too.
Groveton says: “Bottom line – it’s not the Top 5%ers vs. the RHTCs. It is the Americans aged 20 – 40 vs. Americans aged 41 – 60.
Caveat: It is not either / or it is both / and. Recall all those “AOL millionaires” and all those who coasted through college and got the big bucks right out of school.
Here comes the key input from Groveton: “And the capital owned by those in retirement or close to retirement is mobile. So, first you have a wide wealth gap.”
“Then, 51% of the population elects a demigod. Then, the elderly wealthy move their capital (and, perhaps, themselves) to countries that don’t have a demigod as president / prime minister.”
“Then, the US of A is done.”
A very powerful argument for “minding the gap” – as they say in London – and for why we harp on the Wealth Gap issue.
One more caveat on this topic: Elderly and Mobile – especially those who have spent their lives relying on the Autonomobile for Mobility and Access – do not go together.
Some will move money off shore but those are in the top 5% and they rely on ‘money managers.’
As we will note in a review of “How to Build a Village” this demographic may be a key market for a Lewenz / Parallel Village.
Groveton asks: “Tell me where I am wrong here.”
Not at all “wrong,” just some caveats.
Lets go on to another prediction of Groveton’s:
“I predict that the question of proposing a new constitutional convention will begin to be asked of candidates to the state legislature in many states.”
Darrell — Chesapeake says it would not do any good because the Elephant Clan and the Donkey Clan would control the process. Right on Darrell.
That is why humans have to think of Fundamental Transformation in governance structure if citizens are preserve democracies with market economies.
What kind of Fundamental Transformations? Well, just the sort the founding fathers said would be needed: Changes to match changed conditions.
The first one? Evolve the governance so that it is congruent with the organic components of human settlement pattern.
Finally Groveton says: “I wonder about human settlement patterns being a big part of the solution.”
Groveton you need to give serious thought to the economic, social and physical impact of human settlement pattern – there is a book on the topic….
Groveton goes on to suggest that “Beyond that, I believe the wealth gap needs to be solved long before a more rational settlement plan can be implemented.”
Grave settlement pattern Myth: It will take a long time to change human settlement patterns. More on that in THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND
But will citizens change human settlement patterns with backhoes?
Later on in the comments Larry Gross says:
“No one.. I repeat no one is going to get rid of backhoes and go back to men with shovels even if fuel toes to $10 a gallon.”
Since we have far more land devoted to urban land uses than there is a potential market at sustainable patterns and densities, most of the “development” will be REDEVELOPMENT.
There will be a need for some backhoes but more shovels for two reasons:
First, the best way to solve the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis is with large doses of sweat equity.
Second, vast amounts of energy has been wasted on backhoes because of cheap energy.
When I was managing the development of community infrastructure I would often observe the following:
Three able bodied men (this was a while ago) would observe an unanticipated problem in laying a pipe, building a road or installing a storm or sanitary sewer.
They would discuss the problem for a while and then radio the office (this was a while ago >:) and the office would dispatch a lowboy with a bigger backhoe.
After hours of waiting and driving and unloading / loading and minutes of digging the problem was solved.
It could have been done by those three in an hour with shovels and the equipment they already had on the job.
Recall that second sign by the Supercapitalists about not wanting to do the work any more? $10 fuel will change that.
We will deal with inelasticity again soon.
EMR