Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

A Great Place to Live — Except for the Traffic

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

As a follow-up to our recent articles about Prince William County transporation and land use planning…

Prince William County, much to its credit, surveys its citizens every year to gauge their satisfaction with county amenities and services ranging from public safety to help for the elderly, waste management to voter registration. The 2006 telephone survey of 1,439 randomly selected individuals is overseen by a third party, Dr. Thomas M. Guterbock, a University of Virginia sociology professor. (View the report.)

The overall picture is very positive. States the 2006 report: “Prince William County residents are on the whole very satisfied with their County government and quality of life.” On most items, changes since the baseline survey of 1993 have been positive. Among the critical indicators, satisfaction with the county’s “value for tax dollars” is up 11 percentage points since 1993.

(As an interesting aside, blacks and Hispanics consistently gave higher rankings to the County’s quality of life than did whites. Income was not a significant variable in influencing opinions.)

However, there are two major exceptions to the happy picture: land use and transportation. States the report: “Satisfaction with how the County is doing in planning how land will be used and developed … is down 9 points.” As a generality, the longer residents have lived in Prince William, the more dissatisfied they are with the way growth was outpacing the County’s ability to accommodate it.

Remarkably, only half the residents pronounced themselves dissatisfied with traffic conditions; half actually declared that they were “satisfied” or “very satisfied.” There were pockets of deep discontent, however, in North County, Gaineville/Linton Hall and Brentsville.

The Prince William Conservation Alliance drew these conclusions in a press release commenting on the survey:

This years’ survey reports that only 39.6% of citizens say they are satisfied with in-county travel conditions. This is an 18 point drop since 2002, and a 23 point drop since 2000.

This steady and statistically significant decline in citizen satisfaction with in-county travel is perhaps especially troubling because it coincides with the time period during which Prince William invested substantial amounts of local tax dollars to construct new and improved roads.

Prince William’s 2006 Citizen Satisfaction Survey continues to show declining citizen confidence in land use planning, growth and transportation processes. This information echoes the visible and growing consensus that we cannot build our way out of traffic congestion.

Share this article

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

Comments

14 responses to “A Great Place to Live — Except for the Traffic”

  1. James Young Avatar
    James Young

    It is hardly surprising that newer residents would express higher satisfaction that long-time residents. The former have recently made the decision to move into PWC, and therefore should be expected to express a high level of satisfaction. The latter have the advantage of the longer view, and have experienced rising taxes and worsening transportation.

    Of course, so long as both groups vote, politicians will only care about the views of those constituting the majority. So long as immigration remains high, and there is a one-third annual turnover in the voting roles, don’t expect the long-term views to receive much regard from the politicians.

  2. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    That’s an interesting point. I never heard it expressed that way.

    I wonder where the immigration is FROM? Could it be that the newcomers are more satisfied because they came from someplace even worse?

  3. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: “they came from someplace even worse?”

    that’s what the folks who move down to Fredericksburg from NoVa say….

    🙂

    Seriously…. people who have lived here for 20-30-40 years will tell you how bad things have gotten …but those 5000 folks who moved down here in the last few years.. think our congestion is just wonderful compared to where they lived in NoVa (except for the I-95 commute).

    We’ve also had folks who moved here from Chicago and New York and L.A. who say they can’t understand what all the bellyaching is about… cause it’s nirvana compared to where they came from….

    so a couple of questions for today:

    1. can anyone tell me of a time/place where there is truly gridlock as a normal daily event – as opposed to a bad wreck or similiar?

    2. is there a certain level of population verses existing lane miles of road where adding more population will lead to daily gridlock? Got an example?

    There are some analyst type folks out there who claim that you’ll never see true gridlock.. because people will change their driving behavior and/or where they live.. once it gets “bad enough”.. so congestion is a normal progression… that ultimately results in changes … where folks adapt to the congestion – not without much whining though. 🙂

    .. let me know.. when folks start moving away from Virginia because of the congestion.. and I’ll take notice!

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    You should note the reason why the County does this survey: it is part of its budget process.

    The County finds out from the users of its services, e.g., its citizens, how they view the services they receive. These results are then used to re-allocate funds and change budget priorities to ensure that service levels remain high and/or to address problem areas. This is Performance Based Budgeting in action.

    Imagine if the State Government did this!

  5. tobias jodter Avatar
    tobias jodter

    I wonder where the immigration is FROM? India, Pakistan, El Salvador, Bolivia, Mexico, Korea, Vietnam, Liberia, Ghana…

    Could it be that the newcomers are more satisfied because they came from someplace even worse?
    I would think so…

  6. NoVA Scout Avatar
    NoVA Scout

    An abundance of in-laws leads me to spend substantial time in PW. It’s difficult to sort out how much congestion is caused by population gorwth and how much is caused by an aggressive County program to construct roads to deal with congestion. Prince William more than any of the other high growth counties gave up on Richmond a long time ago and just started taking matters into its own hands on road construction. Connaughton’s stated theory (particularly after the failure of the regional transportation tax referendum) was that putting things off any longer waiting for Richmond to get its act together would just lead to higher costs. I consider it a sub-optimal solution from a policy standpoint, but it is probably the wisest course from among an array of unpalatable alternatives.

    The Prince William Conservation Alliance can’t have it both ways: complaining about congestion and complaining about the (hopefully temporary) disruption caused by trying to address the congestion. The latter is transitory.

  7. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    For the record: When people refer to “Richmond” this and “Richmond” that, they’re usually referring to the General Assembly (whom we Richmonders don’t elect), the Governor (whom we don’t elect) or the state bureaucracts (whom we don’t appoint). We Richmonders are as afflicted as the rest of you by the apparatus of state government.

  8. Jim Patrick Avatar
    Jim Patrick

    “As a generality, the longer residents have lived in Prince William, the more dissatisfied they are with the way growth was outpacing the County’s ability to accommodate it.”

    Given that change is continual —‘the only thing constant is change’— older residents will always be less satisfied than others.

    It’s straight statistics that the longer the residence, the greater the accumulation of changes, and the higher the probability they will find (some) change objectionable.

    Rephrased culturally, a resident with zero months of residence simply can’t complain about change at all, a five-year resident can complain a bit, and a lifelong resident can complain all they want!

  9. tobias jodter Avatar
    tobias jodter

    1. can anyone tell me of a time/place where there is truly gridlock as a normal daily event – as opposed to a bad wreck or similiar?

    Anywhere in VA? Define gridlock.

  10. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Ghana, etc. That’s a good one, Tobias.

  11. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    OK for what it is worth, I have a different perception of gridlock vs congestion.

    I figure gridlock is when no one can move because the intersections are blocked with traffic backed up from the next signal.

    This happens at the intersection of K sreet and the Key bridge where it can be impossible to make a left turn for several lights. Likewise in Downtown DC you may be trapped at a light for several changes when vehicles “block the square”. Articulated buses seem to cause some of this.

    So my definition of gridlock is when you have to wait more than three cycles to get through a signal or intersection because of an signal on the next intersection. This condition occurs mostly in, guess what, a grid like street system.

    The intersection of 29th street and Wisconsin near the Naval Obsrvatory is a classic. When traffic is moving on Mass Ave, you can’t get out, and when the light changes at the Observatory, 29th street is immediately blocked. The only way out is if someone takes mercy on you. When I lived there, I would regularly see a Jag with diplomatic plates drive over the sidewalk and use that as a merge lane to Wisconsin, on his way to the British Embassy.

    For a Virginia example I’d look at Route 123 in Vienna, Merrifield, as well as parts of Falls Church.

    My definition of major congestion is when it takes more than 20 minutes to travel 2 miles. At that point you would be nearly as well off (speed-wise, not counting freight) walking.

    Tobias is right, though, 40% of congestion problems are incident related. Recently there was a crash on Route 66 that involved 2 medevac helicopters and the road was closed for more than two hours.

    At that point, route 55 directly parallels 66 and could easily have been used as a detour, with an easy re-entry to the highway after the crash. This would likely not be known to most of the highway travelers. Even with dozens of emergency vehicles and police on the scene, no one was given the task of setting up the detour.

    It does seem to me that road construction projects take entirely too long. When you think of what that heavy machinery costs, it’s hard to imagine you wouldn’t want it working around the clock, yet there it sits, nights and weekends.

    Apparently there are rules that say you cannot start until after six or seven because it disturbs the neighbors. And the night shift does raise costs. The costs to the traveling public are not considered when making the construction plans, because they are external costs.

    Road construction seems to be utterly disorganized: something happens everyday, but yet there is little progress. Given the amount of time allowed for construction, I guess I’m not too impressed when the projects are finished “on time”. The Greenway (a private project) was built in record time as compared to the comparable widening of 66 that occured around the same time.

    I have seen it written that some construction projects actually cause more delays than they will EVER alleviate compared to the previous condition. If that is true, then there is something seriously wrong with our construction plans. In such a case it would be literally true that you can’t build your way out of congestion.

    For a daily congestion situation it would be hard to beat the situation near the intersection of 66 and 495. 66 gets continuously narrower as you apporach the city from Manassas, which is backwards by any way of thinking. At the intersection you must carpool or get off. But since 495 is jammed, both the left hand exit and right hand exit back up. When the left exit lane backs up it blocks the carpool lane, so that even those going through, can’t get out of the way. Even the Vienna Metro station contributes to the problem in that area.

    The double switchback ramp from 495 to 66 west is a gem, too. Two lanes merge right into one lane near the bottom of the ramp, and then immediately merge left onto the highway. This is Guaranteed Confusion, that could be eased by changing the sign and the merge arrows painted on the lane.

  12. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    Another thing that has always amazed me was the failure of VDOT to open the shoulder lane (the one with the big red “X”) on 66 when there is heavy congestion. I’m sure that some backups could be eliminated in a reasonable period of time by using this simple tact. It’s one thing to bemoan the lack of transportation facilities, but something else to let existing ones sit unused.

    I also suspect that the construction and use of reverse lanes (depending on traffic conditions) might add quite a bit of flexibility. But these small, but partial solutions, are never discussed by the “let’s tax and pave more” crowd. Just more evidence that they are much more concerned with other issues (e.g., opening up their landholdings for development or obtaining more VDOT contracts) than with moving traffic safely.

  13. tobias jodter Avatar
    tobias jodter

    Well, we have 2 Ghanian and 1 Liberian immigrant(s) in our employ here at Dulles. It was a serious comment. They do like it better here as you might imagine. But I won’t beat the immigration horse again as I think it is expired…

  14. tobias jodter Avatar
    tobias jodter

    Ok… a few examples.

    I should start off by saying that traffic congestion/gridlock is the main source of my opposition to the Dulles South CPAM’s.

    a) Intersection of 606/621 (Loudoun County Parkway/Evergreen Mills Road). At 8:00AM northbound 606 will be backed-up from 621 to Route 50, that’s about a mile. It can take as much as 15 minutes to clear this intersection. I should mention that after you have cleared the intersection 606 is still backed up stop-and-go another 3 miles or so until you reach the Dulles Greenway (my GPS has already recorded it took me 20 minutes to drive 1.5 miles). A Loudoun County OTS memo from May 2006 refers to this intersection as having a serious congestion problem .
    http://inetdocs.loudoun.gov/planning/docs/route50_/82806_/attachment06ots/attachment06ots.pdf

    I watched this intersection go from no back up, 1 light cycle clearance to a 10-15 minute hurdle. There is a direct correlation imo to the expanded developments in South Riding, Stone Ridge and Kirkpatrick Farms. But I have expounded on the disaster of 606 and how it is hurting our airport business elsewhere.

    b) Intersection of Pleasant Valley Road/Braddock Road. This is a 4 way stop. At 8:00AM eastbound Braddock will be backed up stop-and-go for about .6 to 1 mile. It will take about 10-20 minutes to clear this intersection depending on how backed up the other 3 directions approaching this 4 way stop are. At around 5:30PM westbound Braddock will be backed up anywhere from .5 mile to past Old Lee Road (more than a mile).

    Again, these back-ups are a result of the developments along Route 50. The congestion on Route 50 is so bad that people will bail off onto any and all side roads they can find – they are willing to sit in 20-minute backups for the chance to drive on dirt roads and ford creeks. These are but 2 small examples – I could cite many more.

    I am not sure why it has happened that all these developments have gone in without any significant planning or road improvements. And contrary to the propaganda almost all the developments were re-zonings not by right (i.e. South Riding, South Riding Station, Loudoun Valley Estates, Brambleton, Stone Ridge, Kirkpatrick Farms etc. etc. etc.).

    I fail to understand why no one is sympathetic to the plight of tens of thousands of commuters. It is dismissed as of no consequence. Everyone thinks I’m just another environmentalist whacko trying to conserve land. I am merely in favor of having adequate infrastructure in place before massive developments are approved and built. And the local politician/developer cabal has more than amply demonstrated they are incapable of planning, financing and building such infrastructure. And now we are to trust that this time they will get it right?

Leave a Reply

Read More