The McDonnell administration has entered into a comprehensive agreement with 95 Express Lanes LLC to build roughly 29 miles of express lanes on Interstate 95 in Northern Virginia. Construction will begin early next month and is scheduled for completion in late 2014.
The I-95 express lanes will tie into the Capital Beltway express lanes already nearing completion, creating one of the largest networks of tolled expressways in the country. Arguably, Virginia is conducting the most significant experiment in subjecting a regional highway system to supply-and-demand economics anywhere in North America.
The $925 million project will expand existing express lanes and add new ones over a 29-miles of length of I-95 in Fairfax, Prince William and Stafford counties. Drivers will pay a toll that will vary according to the level of traffic in order to avoid congestion on the free lanes. Express lanes will remain open for buses, van pools, motorcycles and high-occupancy vehicles, and 95 Express Lanes will add 4,300 parking spaces to new or expanded parking lots to make it easier for commuters to shift to buses.
“The 95 Express Lanes combined with the nearly completed 495 Express Lanes will bring a transportation network that manages congestion efficiently, saving time and better connecting commuters with some of Virginia’s most important employment centers and military sites,” said Transportation Secretary Sean T. Connaughton in a prepared statement released late this morning.
In theory, the project should be well received. First, it will take only $71 million in public subsidies, a far smaller sum than other mega-projects approved by the McDonnell administration. And second, it will expand options. No one is forced to use the express lanes. Drivers can continue to use the old lanes as before. Indeed, insofar as the new lanes divert traffic from the old lanes, drivers will enjoy somewhat reduced congestion at no cost to themselves. Meanwhile, the project will expand the bus option and allow anyone who is in a hurry or who otherwise places a high value on his or her time to pay to use the express lanes.
It’s anybody’s guess how the project will influence human settlement patterns. By reducing the unpredictability of travel times for marathon commutes, the project could foster sprawl by reducing the pain of driving long distances. Conversely, the shift of growth and development back toward the Washington region’s urban core could dampen demand for expressway tolls below what project partners Transurban DRIV and Fluor Enteprises have forecast. Transurban has already announced one write-down in Virginia, an investment in the Pocahontas Parkway outside Richmond, because expected residential growth never materialized.
The 95 Express partnership will provide $854 million in funding, of which $3oo million will be backed by federal TIFIA guarantees. The $71 million contribution from the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) will be less than the original estimate of $97 million, due to lower-than-expected financing costs at closing. Tolls will be collected electronically using the E-ZPass, including the new E-ZPass Flex , eliminating the need for toll booths.
The concession will extend 76 years. 95 Express will assume the risk of delivering the project on time and on budget. The project will pay to beef up the Virginia State Police presence on the Interstate to reduce HOV violators.
Among the questions not answered in the press release:
- What happens if traffic volumes and toll revenues do not increase as planned? Does the state have any exposure?
- To what extent is 95 Express protected from competition? Are VDOT’s hands tied in any way from making improvements to U.S. 1, which runs parallel to I-95? Is the state limited in the support it can provide to van pools and buses, or the extent to which it can promote Transportation Demand Management programs?
- How will the project change traffic patterns in the I-95 corridor? Will new congestion hot spots arise, and how much will it cost the state, if anything, to ameliorate them?
— JAB
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