Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

A Fresh Look at the Housing/Transportation Crisis

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

We’re all familiar with the housing crisis, and we’re all familiar with the transportation crisis. And readers of this blog understand that the two phenomena are hopelessly entangled because many households seeking less expensive housing are willing to trade longer commutes for lower mortgages.

To gauge a region’s livability, one cannot consider the affordability of housing in isolation. It is far more meaningful to analyze the cost of housing and transportation together. That is the purpose behind the Housing and Affordability Index created by the Center for Neighborhood Technology for 52 major metropolitan regions around the country.

The map above shows in blue the parts of Hampton Roads where housing/transportation is unaffordable (consuming more than 48 percent of area median income). The map below displays Northern Virginia.

Visit the Housing & Affordability Index website here to view other metro areas and experience the full functionality of the mapping tools. (Hat tip to Jonathan Mallard, who referred me to a post on Buttermilk & Molasses.)

Share this article

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

Comments

  1. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    One more piece to the puzzle

    If they could overlay crime rates or education levels disqaulifying an area if it is either below the median for education or above the median for crime rate for the region

    My strong hunch is almost the entire map would be yellow

    Interesting map to say the least

    Note the huge affordable swath in Easter Washington DC and Prince Georges County.

    Interestingly it would appear that much of Arlington south of I-66 is affordable along with a decent chunk south of I-66 and inside the beltway as well.

    Thats where I live but if I had kids I would want to get out of the school district I am zoned for.

    NMM

  2. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Great find!

    More soon.

    EMR

  3. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The one for the DC area was previously published in the Post and I mentioned it here at the time.

    You wonder though how they determined where the transportation was TO? When you see big chunks of Westmoreland County, La Plata and Southern Fauquier in Yellow, where do those people Go?

    All of the 95 corridor is yellow which might explain why the corridor is jammed. Or maybe 95 explains why it is affordable.

    In any case, the data was prior to the current housing crisis and run up in gas prices, so the maps may have changed somewhat.

    The real question though, is what happens to affordability when all the people in blue try to move to yellow?

    RH

  4. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    much of the yellow is a mirage.

    … because they’re using the median household income for the Metro area to assume incomes of people who do not commute to NoVa for higher salaries.

    .. Folks in the outer burbs who do not commute to NoVa make much lower Household Incomes and while NoVa commuters can find affordable housing in the outer burbs.. the folks who live and work in the outer burbs …often cannot – because the price of housing in the outer burbs has risen in price due to demand from commuters.

    this map would do better if it was done per zipcode – I’d not be surprised to see a high correlation in the affordability index – roughly aligned along the corridors like I-95 and the extend of the boundaries delineated by how long it takes to get from a NoVa job to the outer burb home – 60-90 minutes.

    so.. the further away you get from Wash Metro – the more narrow the commuting corridors like I-95…

    until.. you have really narrow corridors around Caroline county – as compared to say Prince William..or Prince Georges…or west of Loudoun…

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    60 to 90 minutes is really a long haul. While there may be a lot of people that do that kind of run, they are still far in the minority. The average time to work around here is 27 minutes, as I recall.

    ——————————-

    the folks who live and work in the outer burbs …often cannot – because the price of housing in the outer burbs has risen in price due to demand from commuters.

    And what will happen in the inner burbs if the commuters move closer?

    Then people in the outer burbs will be wailing because their net worth disappeared along with the home prices.

    I guess I don’t think this map is any surprise, and it prbably could be made more accurate. Also more useful as NMM points out. If you added his indices, you’d be on your way to a map of gross national happiness.

    Actually, similar studies have been done many times, and the ususal coclusion is that people DO make rational choices in trading off commuting and housing costs.

    Even though some people might think they have warped sense of values.

    RH

  6. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Larry’s comments are a good place to start. A lot of good points.

    To be useful the map should data by census blocks and identify where those with what income actually work.

    As gross as it is (sorry, Larry, no pun intended) the map can have real value when viewed from the perspective of Regional Metrics.

    Jim did not include the whole map for the Washington-Baltimore NUR.

    Just the VA part indicates most of the generalizations about what citizens want included in the comments on the NOTE TO TOOMANYTAXES post are just dead wrong. More on that later.

    For starters note that three large areas of afforability are Reston, Fairfac Center / Chantilly /Centreville and Lorton.

    Although small, Burke Centre can also be identified.

    In other words those places with the highest per sq foot values for housing outside R=12 are in Planned New Communities or parts of them (Planned New Villages and larger PUDs) that also have Affordable and Accessible (with Larry’s cavets) housing.

    The same is true for Columbia MD and for the larger PUDs in the 270 corridor.

    Supporting Larry’s perspective re “mirage” I would guess that 75 % of the dwellings that fall within R = 35 in VA are in the yellow.

    EMR

  7. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: 60-90 minutes “long haul”

    Take a look at the AADT for I-95:
    notice that at each exit north, the huge amount of traffic that is added.

    Caroline 75,000
    Caroline/Spotsylvania 74,000
    Spotsylvania/Thornburg 88,000
    Spotsylvania/Fredburg 98,000
    Stafford 111,000
    Stafford CH 125,000
    Stafford/Prince William 118,000
    Prince William/Triangle 142,000
    Prince William /Dale 165,000
    /Prince William Pkwy. 186,000
    Prince William/Fairfax 190,000
    Fairfax 193,000
    Fairfax /Lorton Road 205,000
    Fairfax Franconia 229,000
    Interstate 395/495 245,000

    by my math – more than 50,000 cars a day originate south of Prince William county that are not on I-95 in Caroline county.

    It’s 50+ miles from Fredericksburg and that commute is at least an hour and often 90 minutes – one way.

    so look at it this way…

    probably half the traffic on the I-95 portion of NoVa originates in the outer burbs…and virtually half the working population of Stafford and Spotsylvania commute out of jurisdiction.

    that is 50,000 cars full of folks earning NoVa salaries that are buying homes in the Fredericksburg Area that have bascially squeezed the folks who work locally out of affordable homes at their salaries.

    you asked..what happens if folks who commute from Fredericksburg move back to NoVa.

    I’d ask.. if they work in NoVa, shouldn’t NoVa provide affordable housing for them rather than exporting their workers that need affordable housing to the outer burbs to displace those who chose to NOT commute, take a lower paying job and not add to I-95 congestion?

    does it mean that the burbs subsidize NoVa affordable housing and school costs?

    How expensive would schools be in NoVA if NoVa had to pay to educate the kids of every NoVa worker?

  8. Darrell -- Chesapeake Avatar
    Darrell — Chesapeake

    What’s the point of this map? I looked at HR and what I found were the affordable places are areas where the bulk of the housing is either apartments, or places you don’t go at night.

  9. James Atticus Bowden Avatar
    James Atticus Bowden

    Darrell: Here here on HR.

    The map shows nothing except where the housing is cheaper – for many reasons.

    Also, it shows where it is hard to afford a house IF you are in the lower half of income. When is affordability a problem? There is no mention of persons on the street because there is a housing shortage? Or abandoned housing units etc? When it is a public policy challenge … when purchasing housing is tough for the lowest Tenth? Half? Two-thirds?

  10. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Although small, Burke Centre can also be identified.”

    I wondered when you would bring that up. Congratulations.

    RH

  11. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “To be useful the map should data by census blocks and identify where those with what income actually work.”

    That was pretty much my thought, but I’m not sure how you would display such a thing.

    RH

  12. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “It’s 50+ miles from Fredericksburg and that commute is at least an hour and often 90 minutes – one way.”

    Yes, but just because you know where they got on, how do you know how far they went?

    “notice that at each exit north, the huge amount of traffic that is added.”

    Which was exaclty my point. The number of long distance vehicle may be a large number by itself, but it pales in comparison to the number getting on closer in.

    Also of that hour or 90 minute long trip most of the time is consumed closer in: the trip from my house near Edsall Rd downtown can easily take a half hour.

    RH

  13. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “…shouldn’t NoVa provide affordable housing for them ..”

    You mean as in subsidy?

    “,,,rather than exporting their workers that need affordable housing to the outer burbs to displace those who chose to NOT commute, take a lower paying job and not add to I-95 congestion?

    does it mean that the burbs subsidize NoVa affordable housing and school costs?”

    I think this goes to Groveton’s comments in his epic post (below) that points out we really don;t know who subsidizes whom.

    I tend to agree with you that NOVA is exporting it’s housing, school, and transportation, and garbage disposal problems, while hogging the commercial benefits.

    But what you point out is exactly why EMR’s theories will fail if ever attempted: as people try to move closer, the costs will go up much faster than the benefits.

    I also think that Groveton hit on a key point when he mentioned employment security in Europe. It’s a LOT easier to establish a sane existence if you don’t change jobs every six years.

    RH

  14. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “…that is 50,000 cars full of folks earning NoVa salaries that are buying homes in the Fredericksburg Area that have bascially squeezed the folks who work locally out of affordable homes at their salaries.”

    It’s also 50,000 families that buy services and provide employment to local people.

    It’s also 50,000 families that are probably lobbying aginst growth: to protect themselves from what they did to the locals.

    And that growth war – winds up hurting the old time locals most of all.

    But, if you ever sent them all away, the results would be far worse than what you have now.

    RH

  15. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: where do folks get off of I-95 as they go north…

    the fact that I-95 starts with 90K traffic in Spotsylvania and builds to 170K in Prince William and then to 240K at 395 should tell you that far more folks are getting on than off.

    It’s true.. some folks in Spotsy will commute to Stafford and Stafford to southern Fairfax, etc…

    but any way you cut it 170K – 90K = 80K of cars… on NoVa roads that originate outside of NoVa…

    If you suddenly on any given work day in NoVa took 80K of cars off the road – the resulting traffic would more than likely be smooth and non-gridlocky ….

    re: Fairfax subsidizing RoVa schools.

    I would posit that the localities that are really paying for RoVa schools are the exurbs that are educating NoVa workers kids.

    If NoVa had to pay those costs then perhaps the RoVa exurbs would not need SOQ money.

    and this goes back to the map…

    the map does not recognize the median household income of exurb people who live AND work locally, at much lower salaries, who can afford much less for housing and who suffer regressively as taxes go up to pay for the higher level services that people who flee Fairfax and become NoVa commuters demand.

    For instance, people who live and work locally had a choice all along of whether they want to pay extra for 24/7 EMS service and they choice not too but then when the Fairfax/NoVa crowd moved in – they demanded it – because they could afford it… but the local folks still could not afford it – so their income – is further reduced.

    If you took the NoVa commuters out of the exurbs – you’d have 1/3 less traffic on I-95, lower taxes, and more affordable housing for the folks who live and work locally.

    I’m not advocating any of this but I think we ought to be willing to look at the truth also..

    and the truth is that folks who commute long distances use more resources at many levels and in doing so make those same resources more costly for others.

    NoVa commuters often lobby in the Fredericksburg Area for Higher Taxes at the budget hearings!!!

    then those tax increase hit hard at the Deputy who can only afford to live in a double-wide 20 miles in the most rural parts of the county.

    That Deputy used to be able to live a mile or so from where he worked – but no more… he’s been displaced – because he can no longer afford a home close to where he works.

  16. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The typical resident of Fairfax County does NOT benefit by the mass movement of workers in and out of the County. Clearly, not having all these additional people using schools, etc. helps residents of Fairfax County.

    But that’s along way from saying residents benefit from the jobs. By definition, a job held by a worker from F’burg is one not held by a resident from Fairfax County. The additional commercial real estate taxes generated by the commercial property being leased to the employer has not held down residential real estate taxes. There’s probably some minor benefit from additional sales tax revenues from purchases made. Of course, some local businesses make money selling to these commuters.

    Both the individual and corporate income taxes are shipped to Richmond, where a few pennies for each dollar are returned to Fairfax County.

    Meanwhile, the real estate industry is calling for more and higher taxes to build transportation facilities so that the commuters can keep driving to Fairfax County. But where’s the general benefit?

    I would think that imposition of a small payroll tax on large employers (say more than 100 employees) would likely change the economic equation.

    TMT

  17. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: anti-growth ….NoVa commuters

    at least you recognize that it is the folks who used to live in NoVa and moved to the exurbs that exhibit the anti-growth attitudes so you can add to the other adverse impacts that they brought with them – hypocrisy.

    yes.. these same folks are the first ones to go crying at the hearings that they need “relief” for their commutes.. they want more local roads, more I-95 lanes, more VRE seats, …more… because their commuting lives – the life that they chose – is so awful.

    so when someone mentions that perhaps them paying more of the fair share of the costs of their commutes – via tolls – why not?

  18. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry

    Just wanted to say 8:38 is one of the best posts I have ever seen on here especially the second half of it. I agree 100%

    also agree with 8:48

    I think you have described the gentrification of the outer burbs

    So in summary on the east side of DC. We have the yuppies displacing the poor. The poor moving into PG county. The middle class fleeing to Charles County. Charles County residents dealing with higher taxes and cultural issues from a large African American community moving into a lily white area.

    On the Virginia side we have very high levels of prosperity in the inner core. Gentrification with true affordability issues amongs the lower class which created cultural shock in Prince William. A priority on housing amongst many in the middle class which caused gentrification of the existing residents in the outer burbs.

    Phew… feel free to add anything I may have missed

    So my main point should we even be worried about this. Is this something that even needs to be fixed. How would we do it start to destory the economy to bring costs down in the inner core? Create tons of affordable housing?

    I think business as usual will work everything out in the end. Any tinkering will propably due more damage long term and mostly benefits the ruling elites anyway.

    NMM

  19. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Is there – equity – for the folks who choose not to commute?

    if not, should there be?

    If there should be equity – how should it be done?

  20. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    ” the fact that I-95 starts with 90K traffic in Spotsylvania and builds to 170K in Prince William and then to 240K at 395 should tell you that far more folks are getting on than off.”

    It would appear so at first glance, but you still can’t tell how far the avrage trip is from just that data. Just because more people aegetting on than off doesn’t mean that everyone who gets on in Stafford is going downtown.

    What the experts tell us is that the average trip is still only 27 minutes. And the really long trips are still a minority of all trips.

    “If you suddenly on any given work day in NoVa took 80K of cars off the road – the resulting traffic would more than likely be smooth and non-gridlocky ….”

    We know that’s true because we can see it on federal holidays.

    But what we are ususally talking about here is NOT taking 80k of cars off the roads but taking them off the outer roads and jamming them onto the inner roads.

    And that’s just the commuter trips, which are only 20-25%. When you add the rest, the concept is a joke.

    And don’t even think you are going to handle that with mass transit.

    RH

  21. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    ” and who suffer regressively as taxes go up to pay for the higher level services “

    Yeah, that’s the usual song and dance. But the net worth of their homes and other property goes up, and so does their opportunity for work, and so does the income. And the do get better services or those higher taxes.

    Focusing on higher taxes only and blaming it on outsiders is great sport, but it does not tell the whole story.

    My brother is a local boy who started his business out of high school and stayed local. As Martha’s Vineyard Grew rom 4000 people (year round) to 12,000 year round, his business more than tripled.

    RH

  22. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “so their income – is further reduced.”

    Until they need a 3 AM call to the EMS. I don’t imagine that once the service is available, that they refuse to use it.

    RH

  23. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “The additional commercial real estate taxes generated by the commercial property being leased to the employer has not held down residential real estate taxes.”

    Come on, TMT, you kow better than that.

    This statement, on its face, cannot possibly be true.

    Without the additional real estate taxes from commercial property residential taex would HAVE to be higher.

    Now, if you are saying the the county has spent more money because more money was available, thats different. But it still means you are getting more services for the same level of residential taxes.

    RH

  24. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Any tinkering will propably due more damage long term and mostly benefits the ruling elites anyway.”

    Thomas Sowell would be proud.

    RH

  25. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    “I would posit that the localities that are really paying for RoVa schools are the exurbs that are educating NoVa workers kids.”.

    I am lost on that comment.

    The idea that “core NoVA” has low population and benefits from a huge influx of workers from the exurbs can’t be demonstrated with the population numbers.

    Population of “core NoVA”:

    Farifax County…….1,000,000
    Arlington County…….206,000
    Alexandria………….130,000
    Loudoun County………200,000 (est)
    Fairfax City…………22,000
    City of Falls Churac….12,000 (est)

    Total…………….1,570,000

    I don’t know whether to count Prince William as an exurb or NoVA. But let’s look at some outlying counties:

    Prince William………383,000
    Stafford County……..125,000
    Fauquier County………70,000 (est)
    Clarke County………..15,000
    Warren County………..36,000
    Rappahannock County……8,000

    Total………………637,000

    Even with Prince William as an exurb (a real stretch in my opinion) you have 3X the population in core NoVA that you have in the exurbs. And if PWC is considered core, there’s nothing really left to talk about.

    Putting Spotsylvania into the exurbs would add another 120,000 or so. Fredricksburg would add 20,000.

  26. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    I see that Great Falls is blue on the map.

    Yep, we are really suffering.

    Some of my neighbors are talking about keeping their BMWs for 2 years nstead of getting a new car every year!

    Things are tough.

    Sometimes you have to take these statistics with a grain of salt.

  27. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    If there should be equity – how should it be done?

    First, you take any proposed “equity” adjustment, and subtract out the costs and labor for commuting.

    Maybe the commuters “have” more because they are willing to invest more and work harder.

  28. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    PW is usually counted as NOVA, making Grovetons analysis even worse for Larry’s (NMM?) argument.

    Nevertheless, to the extent that exurbs are educating the children of NOVA workers, to the extent that exurbs are paying for infrastructure that might have been added to NOVA costs, to the extent that exurbs are bearing the cross of “affordable” housing, Fairfax is getting a break.

    It isn’t a very big break to Fairfax/NOVA, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a big burden to the exurbs.

    RH

  29. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “Maybe the commuters “have” more because they are willing to invest more and work harder.”

    Nope. And here’s the proof.

    They’re consuming MORE than others – while having others subsidize what the consume…

    and the proof is that $4 gas as painful as it might be for folks who live close to where they work, it downright scary to folks driving a 100 miles a day…

    using more gasoline is not “investing” or “working harder”.

    If that were true -the people who drove the furtherest and consumed the most gasoline would be considered the hardest working.

  30. anonymous Avatar
    anonymous

    Regarding the fairness of the exurbs versus NOVA, when was the last time the state public school funding formula was analyzed, and what does it encourage? My understanding is that the State worries about a rich county like Arlington attracting (stealing) the best teachers from a county like Prince William. The formula looks at the size of the school system and the size of the commercial tax base.

    Is is fair that Arlington gets to keep all the tax revenue from their office buildings when those office buildings are filled with citizens that live outside Arlington and have kids going to public schools outside Arlington?

    Is is fair that the state pays about 60% of the cost of the Prince
    William school system but only about 15-20% of the Arlington school system?

    Is it fair that Prince William is providing much of the affordable housing base for the Arlington work force?

    Is it fair that Arlington has to pay for more WMATA (Metro) costs than Prince William?

    Why should Fairfax spend money to attract Volkswagen of America to locate in Fairfax? If all those Volkswagen workers make Fairfax’s tax base more attractive, the State will lower the amount of State school funding for the Fairfax School system.

    To what extent does it make sense for a county or city to grow it’s commercial tax base if the state is
    going to lower the amount of school money the jurisdiction gets as its tax base becomes more commercial? On the other hand, Arlington and Alexandria still don’t seem to have any trouble paying about $20,000 per pupil per year for their school systems. Prince William doesn’t spend anywhere near that.

    MJ

  31. anonymous Avatar
    anonymous

    There is something wrong with the map if it shows most of Arlington as affordable, and most of Loudoun as unaffordable.

    The index uses census data on rents and housing cost of homeowners. The problem is that Arlington’s numbers are pulled down by the high percentage of apartments and condos in Arlington, and Loudoun’s numbers are pulled up by the high percantage of McMansions in Loudoun.

    If you compare similar properties, you’ll find Loudoun is much more affordable. I searched in the MLS for a townhouse with a 2 car garage. The cheapest in Arlington was 500K, but the cheapest in Loudoun was 240K.

    MJ

  32. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: SOQ composite index

    I don’t know how often the index calculation changes but the numbers are recalculated on a fairly frequent basis – as this year – Spotsylvania County lost hundreds of thousands of dollars because the composite index showed them wealthier than prior years.

    the way that Virginia funds education virtually assures that the richer counties are going to subsidize the poorer counties – in an effort to assure that each child has access to an equivalent education.

    is this a legitimate public policy?

    are publically-funded schools a legitimate public policy?

    re: weird “affordability” numbers

    yes.. I’m afraid that this effort does not pass the smell test…

    The folks that did it apparently did not go through and try to validate what it was showing…

    they ASSUME that everyone in the METRO Area ..WILL commute.. to obtain the maximum salary apparently because I don’t see how they can justify using the Median Salary for the Metro Area as the salary benchmark for a place to live no matter where you might live and work in proximity.

    it appears also that they don’t consider rental space the same as SFD owner-occupied dwellings.

  33. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Larry points out in a previous post that the census data used to produce these maps are old. much of the economic data has changed, and changed very recently.

    RH

  34. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    There is something wrong with the map. You don’t suppose it might have something to do with the sponsors predilections, do you?

    RH

  35. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    MJ – Agreed that the state aid to education formula screws Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun Counties. But the people in those counties continue to vote for Senators and Delegates who, in turn, vote for legislation that sustains the inequities. Case in point, the Mark Warner – John Chichester tax increases would not have passed without votes from Arlington and Fairfax Counties. What if the GA members from those counties would have refused to vote for the tax increases unless the state aid formula for schools was also adjusted more fairly?

    People in NoVA are egotistical dumb-asses. They emote for more government and higher taxes without first figuring out whether or not they are getting screwed. We get what we deserve.

    TMT

  36. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    I think in order to have an informed discussion about school funding in Va, we all need to be starting from the same set of facts regarding the composite index and rationale an update cycle and ditto for the locality fiscal stress data that I think is part of that formula.

    Then it would shake out to two fundamental viewpoints in my mind.

    1. – the purpose of the state formulas is to insure that each child no matter where they live gets allocated an equitable access to an equivalent education.

    2. – No.. it’s not up to the state to take from one locality to give to another to meet such equity.

    Perhaps there is a third option but in the discussions we have here – I feel like folks confuse the two issues and/or go back and forth on their positions…

    so.. the composite formula and stress index means nothing to those who disagree with the premise behind them.

    so ..at the least..each of us should understand our own positions .. and not be confused

  37. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    “1. – the purpose of the state formulas is to insure that each child no matter where they live gets allocated an equitable access to an equivalent education.”.

    Is this equality coming true?

Leave a Reply

Read More