Fredericksburg is the Crime Capital of Virginia

Fredericksburg area crime rate map.

by James C. Sherlock

wrote Friday that Fredericksburg has a major crime problem.

After hours of plowing through state crime statistics for 2021, I can now declare Fredericksburg the crime capital of Virginia.

Public safety is the number one job of local government, followed by running its schools.

The statistics suggest the Fredericksburg law enforcement system — the courts, the Commonwealth’s Attorney and the police department — and the school system have failed.

Fredericksburg may wish to acknowledge that by doing something about it. I suggested reversion to town status. I don’t expect that to happen, at least anytime soon.

The Fredericksburg criminal justice system does not work.

  • I don’t have access to their court data, but the Commonwealth’s Attorney proudly does not want to lock criminals up. She call that type of prosecution “community facing.” I call it community defacing.
  • The state Office of Criminal Justice Services currently accredits 104 Virginia law enforcement agencies (LEAs) that meet commonly accepted professional standards for efficient and effective agency operation established by the Virginia Law Enforcement Professional Standards Commission (VLESPSC). But not the Fredericksburg police.
  • Yet Fredericksburg has the largest drug crime problem per capita of any medium or large jurisdiction in the state.

Something needs to wake them up.

The accreditation program. The Commonwealth has under the Department of Criminal Justice Services a Virginia Law Enforcement Professional Standards Commission (VLEPSC).

It functions

to provide law enforcement agencies in the Commonwealth with an avenue for demonstrating that they meet commonly accepted standards for efficient and effective agency operation.

Standards

address administration; operations; personnel; and training.

The non-participating LEAs simply don’t want to adopt and be inspected under those standards. Fredericksburg PD doesn’t.

Virginia’s High Crime Rate Jursidictions. Now, as reported by the Virginia State Police, let’s look at the jurisdictions

  • with Group A crime rates, measured in crimes per 100,000 residents, of over 5,000 in 2021 (report valid as of Mar. 16, 2022); and
  • in jurisdictions with over 10,000 residents, a minimum cut-off point chosen by the author to ensure statistical relevance.

Below is a list, in descending order, of Group A crime rates per 100,000 residents;  the list is limited to jurisdictions with populations greater than 25,000. I have added notable (to the eye of the author) Group A offenses in absolute numbers and have listed the Virginia state accreditation status of the LEAs:

  1. Fredericksburg (Neither PD nor Sheriff’s Office accredited) rate 9,317 / pop. 27,956 / Notable: murder and manslaughter (3); sex crimes (35); assaults and intimidations (914); drugs (382); weapons (60).  Note: State Police reported 13 drug crimes and seven weapons violations in Fredericksburg — presumably on the short stretch of I-95 in that city); Spotsylvania County and Stafford County rates less than 3,000. Of the two, only Stafford showed notable drug crimes with 784 in a population of 159,247.  Meanwhile, on the tiny tree-shaded campus centered among this mayhem, UMW police reported only 40 crimes in 2021, among them three assaults and nine drug crimes. The rest were crimes against property.
  2. Roanoke (City) (PD not accredited, Sheriff’s Office accredited) rate 9,290 / pop. 99,883 /Notable: assaults & intimidation (3,124); arson (26); burglary and B&E (473); drugs (1,068); weapons (334). Note: the state police reported an additional 145 drug crimes in Roanoke City.
  3. Portsmouth (Neither PD nor Sheriff’s Dept. accredited) rate 8,065 / pop. 97,883 / Notable:  murder & manslaughter (36); assaults & intimidations (2,352); drugs (233); weapons (204).
  4. Danville (PD and Sheriff’s Dept. accredited) rate 7,928 / pop. 42,597 / Notable: murders (6); sex crimes (35); assaults and intimidation (1,216); drugs (326) weapons (182).
  5. Norfolk (PD not accredited; Sheriff’s Office accredited) rate 6,860 / pop. 238,102 / Notable — murder (62), sex crimes (245); assaults and intimidations (4,998); drugs (876); juvenile arrests (116). Note: the State Police reported two additional murders/manslaughters and a kidnapping in Norfolk.
  6. Pulaski – rate about 6,500 listed separately:
    1. Pulaski County Sheriff (not accredited) rate 5,596 / pop. 22,425 / Notable: murder and manslaughter (3); assaults and intimidations (473); arsons (5); drugs (92); weapons (26). Note:  The state police reported an additional manslaughter in Pulaski County)
    2. Pulaski Police (accredited) rate 7,578 / population 8,657 / Notable: assaults and intimidations (103); drugs (193)
  7. Winchester (PD and Sheriff’s Office both accredited) rate 6,342 / pop. 28,021 / Notable: assaults & intimidations (525) drugs (282); weapons (51). Note: the state police reported 147 additional drug crimes in Winchester.
  8. Richmond (City) (PD not accredited, Sheriff’s Office accredited) rate 6,163 / pop. 226,623 / Notable : murder and manslaughter (89); kidnapping 35; assaults & intimidation (3,009); drugs (599); weapons (962)
  9. Hampton (neither PD nor Sheriff’s Office accredited) rate 6,037 / pop 136,581 / Notable: murder (27); kidnapping (42); sex crimes (111); arson (24);  drugs (575); weapons (694).  Note: State Police reported 19 assaults in Hampton.
  10. Lynchburg (PD not accredited; Sheriff’s Office accredited) rate 5,661 / pop. 80,054 / Notable: murder & manslaughter (9); sex crimes (77); assaults & intimidations (1,726); drugs (720); weapons (244). Note:  The state police reported 39 additional drug crimes in Lynchburg.
  11. Staunton (neither PD nor Sheriff’s Office accredited) rate 5,535 / Pop. 25,874 / Notable:  assaults & intimidation (404); arson (4); drugs (178).
  12. Newport News (PD not accredited, Sheriff’s office accredited) rate 5,283 / pop 185,082 / Notable: murder (29); kidnappings (108); assaults and intimidations (3.797); drugs (491); weapons violations (1,187); juvenile arrests (100).
  13. Suffolk (PD not accredited; Sheriff’s Office accredited) rate 5,206 / Pop. 96,130 / Notable: murder & manslaughter (6); assaults and intimidation (2,076); arson (15); drugs (259); weapons (218).
  14. Charlottesville (PD accredited; Sheriff’s office unaccredited) rate 5,113 / pop. 51,079 / Notable: sex crimes (68); assaults/ intimidations (795); drugs (159); weapons (41)
  15. Petersburg (PD accredited; Sheriff’s Office accredited) rate 5,050 / pop. 32,912 / Notable: murder and manslaughter (18); assaults and intimidations (438); drugs (98); weapons (168).
  16. Manassas (neither PD not Sheriff’s office accredited) rate 5,028/ pop. 42,733 / Notable: kidnapping (15); sex crimes (51); assaults and intimidations (715); drugs (281).

State Police.

 Another finding from the data: the state police report a lot of drug and weapons crimes.

In addition to the notes above, state police reported an astonishing 284 drug crimes in Harrisonburg in 2021, presumably mostly on I-81. Other major drug crime areas reported by the state police were Frederick County (205), Rockingham (126), Shenandoah County (121), and Warren County (151).

Other Agencies. Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Police reported 57 drug crimes and 770 weapons violations. The state Department of Wildlife Resources reported 161 weapons violations and 30 drug crimes.

Among the university and college PDs,  the busiest were VCU (865, including five kidnappings); Virginia Tech (715); UVa (521, including six forcible rapes); JMU (232 including two rapes and 59 drug crimes); and CNU (156 including three forcible rapes and 39 drug crimes).

Fredericksburg Crime. Fredericksburg is, by state statistics, the crime capital of Virginia. Nearly two out of ten were involved in a Class A crime in 2021 either as perpetrator or victim.

Its drug crime problem is the biggest in the state among middle- and large-sized communities. The users commit property crimes to feed their habit. The sellers assault one another and innocents nearby.

Is there a gang problem? Of course there is. With the massive drug crime problem, Fredericksburg has a gang problem. So does Stafford County.

Yet the Commonwealth’s Attorney recoils against use of the jail and prisons. Or even taking truants and their families to J&D court.

The PD has not bothered with accreditation. Accreditation is not a silver bullet to crime suppression, but it does measure professionalism and, as importantly, it signifies interest in professionalism by participation in the program. And they might learn new skills in the process.

Fredericksburg Schools. Fredericksburg Public Schools have been abandoned by many of their registered students, to the point that the Superintendent directly misrepresented absenteeism to the School Board in 2021. Their SOL scores are abominable.

Even with the numbers public record, the system signals no interest in curing chronic absenteeism.

Does the drug problem, and thus the gang problem, impact the Fredericksburg schools? Yes. Whether they acknowledge it or not.

Fix it, or at least try. The adults who run the school system and the criminal justice system in Fredericksburg clearly either just don’t care, haven’t noticed, are utterly incompetent or all three.

Having among the worst schools and the worst crime problem is not an accomplishment.

Revert to town status, Fredericksburg. Let other adults give suppressing crime and running your schools a try. To save your children. You haven’t.

Updated Nov 14 at 8:07 AM


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Comments

55 responses to “Fredericksburg is the Crime Capital of Virginia”

  1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    So ironic. 30 years ago when I lived on Caroline Street you could not pass wind without attracting the Fred Police. It was once a very safe place.

    1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      My wife is a MWU alumna. So I know the place. You are right about what it used to be.

      Before the street drugs.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        There are no obvious “street drugs” nor gangs.

        I’m not saying there is none but there are no places that are well recognized by most folks who live here. The police obviously know but other than the Section 8 apartments, Fredericksburg is a safe and walkable place.

        They have a 3 mile circular trail that is heavily used and other than some homeless folk, it’s considered safe.

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/25152cf920f165263416815d693db48d1a343e2bf4196e2f9c8301226eb1999c.jpg

        This is one of those deals where it can be claimed that the data does not lie but in my experience, something is amiss here between the data and actual on-the-ground in Fredericksburg.

        What would be helpful is to see the geography of where the crime is and is not.

        1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
          James C. Sherlock

          The statistics are what they are, Larry. They are from the state police annual crime report, not me.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            they are. But I can tell you that they don’t reflect how Fredericksburg is – on the ground.

            It’s actually quite a vibrant place with very little “blight”.

            The schools do have issues but one might thing with that high level of absenteeism , that there would be juvenile crime but that data doesn’t show it.

      2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead

        Crime was confined to Mayfield and Bragg Hill in those days. Those poor Mary Wash kids. 30 years ago if a college kid cracked a beer open on campus you were going to get a all hands on deck visit from the Fred Police.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          Hazel Hill (near JAB’s mother), Mayfield, Bragg Hill along Fall Hill Ave and along Lafayette Blvd both city and Spotsy.

          but again, these stats do not “fit” with my own experiences. But apparently you do see the crime?

          1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
            James Wyatt Whitehead

            I know at my mother’s light shop there are 3 current restraining orders against nutty drifters who consistently come in the showroom and carry on with poor behavior. Town police are so hands off now. I think this policy stems from that George Floyd rioting the city experienced.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar

            is that on Route 1 near JM?

  2. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    I am not sure what the point of this article is, other than Fredericksburg has the highest rate of Class A crimes. Accreditation does not seem to be correlated with crime rates. For example, of the largest jurisdictions, the police departments of Prince William, Henrico, Virginia Beach, and Chesapeake are not accredited, yet they do not appear in the list of localities with high crime rates. At the same time, the accredited police departments of Danville, Winchester, Charlottesville, and Petersburg are in the list of high crime rates.

    Demographics probably play a larger role in this area than whether the police department is accredited.

    Also, it might be worthwhile to look at the mix of crimes. After all, Class A crimes cover a broad range, such as from murderers to pickpockets. So, what is driving Fredericksburg’s high rate? Is it violent crimes (murder, rape, assault, and robbery? Or is it lesser crimes such stealing from parked cars?

    1. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      Prince William County Police is accredited through CALEA.

      https://www.pwcva.gov/department/police/calea-accreditation

    2. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      Look it up, Dick, I linked the reference.

      The point of the article is that they are destroying their children. Do you need any more clarification?

    3. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      Look it up, Dick, I linked the reference. The answer to your question, as I wrote, is drug crimes. Which means the property crimes are linked to that.

      The point of the article is that they are destroying their children. Clear enough?

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        I appreciate your highlighting the problems with the schools, especially the absenteeism. Keep in mind, however, that, according to Matt Hurt, reports from the 2021-2022 school year should not be given much weight. Hopefully, conditions will be better this year.

        As for the crime problem, as I stated in a comment in your earlier post, reversion to town status will not affect that. Towns, even ones much smaller than Fredericksburg, have their own police departments, and sheriffs do not provide law-enforcement within the town boundaries. There would be no difference between a Fredericksburg city police department and a Fredericksburg town police department.

        1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
          James C. Sherlock

          Reversion will affect both crime prevention and the schools.

          The courts will be county courts. The Commonwealth’s Attorney will be the county Commonwealth’s Attorney. The sheriff will be the county sheriff. The School division will be the county school division.

          Clean sweep.

        2. James C. Sherlock Avatar
          James C. Sherlock

          Chronic absenteeism in Fredericksburg schools was horrible two years in a row, not just in 2021-22. Worst in the state by far in 2020-21. I suspect it was bad before that, but the data are not available at the moment now from VDOE.

    4. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      If you think this article was about accreditation, read it again.

      It’s about the adults of Fredericksburg giving a damn.

      1. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
        Dick Hall-Sizemore

        If it was not about accreditation, you sure spent a lot of words talking about a nonissue.

        1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
          James C. Sherlock

          You are correct. I spent too many words on that issue. I updated it to fix the problem. Thanks

    5. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      “I am not sure what the point of this article is, other than Fredericksburg has the highest rate of Class A crimes”

      It actually doesn’t. It just does in Sherlock’s cherry-picked set of jurisdictions.

      1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
        James C. Sherlock

        Cherry-picked the city with the highest crime rate in Virginia. Guilty.

        1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          It doesn’t have the highest crime rate in Virginia… that is the point

          1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
            James C. Sherlock

            It does within the criteria stated in the article.

          2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Which were randomly selected by you in order to ignore jurisdictions with higher crime rates…

  3. Kimball Payne Avatar
    Kimball Payne

    As a local government manager for over 30 years, I don’t recall the accreditation program offered by the Office of Criminal Justice Services. In Lynchburg, the focus was, and still is I presume, on accreditation by CALEA, the Commission on Accreditation of Law Enforcement Agencies. Both Fredericksburg and Lynchburg, as well as other city agencies that you listed as not accredited by the state, have CALEA accreditation. You can check it out here: https://calea.org/calea-client-database

  4. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Now, what was the oxycodone prescription rate in the high crime locales in 2010? Probably more causality.

    1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      It is. See Norton and Bluefield, too small to make this assessment, were centers of the oxytocin trade.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Public hanging is wrong. So is the Sackler civil settlement.

  5. LarrytheG Avatar

    one thing that is driving me nuts is that it’s NOT Mary Washington University!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7da398077336f7ad2df7b535c404f7abff22ee775408ea2245293f52ee8c11ae.jpg

    1. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      Martha?

    2. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      Mary hen pecked the hell out of George Washington. It must have had a good effect since the father of our country turned out all right.

    3. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
      Dick Hall-Sizemore

      It is too bad that it is not Mary Washington University. Every time I see the acronym “UMW”, I think “United Mine Workers”!

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        Me too… but Mary Washington University makes me wince…there is no such place….

        1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
          James C. Sherlock

          You easily wince.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            only when the mistake is repeated over and over and over…by folks who proffer themselves as factual in their views.

  6. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “…in jurisdictions with over 10,000 residents, a minimum cut-off point chosen by the author to ensure statistical relevance.”

    And also conveniently eliminates Bluefield, Franklin, and Norton from consideration… all of which have higher crime rates than the so-called crime capital of Virginia and are closer in population to Fredericksburg than most on your cited list… but who’s counting….??

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      and to be expected… he’s gotta make his “points”!

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Cherry-pickers gotta cherry-pick…

      2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Btw, Bluefield has the highest rate and when we combine population with the other half of the city (technically in WV but the same city) the population falls within his 10,000 minimum value making it significant (supposedly)…. but again, who’s counting…?

        1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
          James C. Sherlock

          No, I am not counting West Virginia. thus the title.

          1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            Bluefield VA has the highest rate in Virginia. Also, Bluefields rate in 2020 was 9427 so the current rate of 10,344 is a significant jump as well… pretty much makes it the “Crime Capital of Virginia” in actuality… alas…

          2. James C. Sherlock Avatar
            James C. Sherlock

            I’ll send them a note.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar

            Bluefield is like Bristol – state line down the middle I believe.

    2. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      I know you care desperately about Bluefield. It is, of course, a split town with most of it in West Virginia.

      Norton is 87% white and was a center of Oxycontin distribution. It is poor. The school quality profiles site has been down all weekend and still is, but if I remember Norton has reasonably good schools.

      Franklin is a Black community with a drug crime problem. It is an industrial/farming community not near anywhere really. It is poor. As is Southampton County that surrounds it. Again, if memory serves, the schools underperform.

      None of the three has anything like the economic resources and geographic and demographic advantages that Fredericksburg has and squanders. Not even close.

      And smaller jurisdictions are, of course, more statistically fragile – the rates are more volitile. More impacted by fewer crimes.

      But whatever.

      Fredericksburg remains the crime capitol of Virginia. Not a good title to win. Don’t you agree?

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        I am more concerned that it has a high rate of crime. I am equally concerned about the other jurisdictions with high rates of crime in Virginia – which you apparently couldn’t give a rat’s ass about. I am not concerned about your contrived and inaccurate title… that is just more Sherlock blather, frankly…

        1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
          James C. Sherlock

          I also did not write about your neighborhood. But I care about that too. Just not the subject of this article.

          1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
            Eric the half a troll

            My neighborhood does not have the highest crime rate in Virginia which IS the subject of your article… hence, the title…

      2. LarrytheG Avatar

        Why is Fredericksburg not also in that “statistically fragile” category?

        1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
          Eric the half a troll

          Because 10,000 is a magic number…

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            shocking! I think you’re onto how Sherlock does businesses. Keep on him!

  7. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “…in jurisdictions with over 10,000 residents, a minimum cut-off point chosen by the author to ensure statistical relevance.”

    And also conveniently eliminates Bluefield, Franklin, and Norton from consideration… all of which have higher crime rates than the so-called crime capital of Virginia and are closer in population to Fredericksburg than most on your cited list… but who’s counting….??

  8. DJRippert Avatar

    Something funny is happening in Fredricksburg. Didn’t that city also have a huge drop in test scores for the kiddies? Are there similar issues in Spotsylvania County or is this just isolated to the city?

    Also, three dead in Charlottesville last night. I heard the report while driving to work this morning. That will impact the violent crime stats.

    1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      It did have a drop in test scores. No way to perform on SOLs if the kids don’t attend school.

      Crime and schools represent a total failure of governance in Fredericksburg. Progressive heaven, though.

    2. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      I have posted and will update the Charlottesville tragedy as I get it..

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        might make Cville the “new” “crime capitol” ?

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