FENDING OFF ’29 BY DOING WHAT MIGHT HAVEHELPED IN ’73

Anyone still think the stock market is not a gambling venue?

Great day yesterday! Today, not so good.

“We have no idea where things are going.” Robert F. Engle, finance professor and director of the Center for Financial Econometrics at New York University.

Is NYU near Wall Street?

Cool graphic on the front page of WaPo’s Business Section portraying the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index (VIX) aka, the “Fear Index.”

There is reason for fear. This is not your fathers recession. It is not your grandfathers depression.

This is a punctuation in the 200 year equilibrium that has been based on the Agrarian to Urban Transformation. The punctuation is caused by the mass consumption of natural capital and borrowing from grandchildren and global trading partners.

A technologically driven consumer based society costs far, far more than citizens have been paying. Even worse, the small percentage they have been paying – for goods and services and in fees and taxes – has been paid with debt and consumption of nonrenewable resources.

Agencies run by pandering politicians and governance practitioners as well as Enterprises and Institutions run by self-serving “leaders” and all supported by MainStream Media have convinced citizens they can have it all for next-to-nothing. All boats cannot rise indeffinitely on escalating consumption in a finite environment.

This was clear to many in the ‘20s and should have been clear to all in 1973.

We have noted the lynchpins of the current Global Meltdown in prior posts. Tonight, we summarize two human settlement pattern indicators that show how Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions are preparing to address the need for Fundamental Change in settlement pattern.

In summary they are creating plans to taking actions that might have helped in 1973 but are now just pipe dreams.

We have suggested in columns and posts that rebuilding Tysons Corners around an armature of 19th century boulevards, retrofitted for early 20th century Large, Private Vehicles rather than a Balanced Community with Alpha Villages with Ziggurat METRO station-areas in foolish. See “All Aboard” and “A Picture is Worth a Thousand Lies.” Also see over a score of Jim Bacon and EMR columns on Tysons Corner and METRO to Dulles since 2003. (Note where the “Fear Index” cited above was going from 2003 to 2006. Bacons Rebellion was NOT Chicken Little speaking in settlement pattern tongues.)

There are two paths to cut dependence on foreign energy, an imbalance of trade and consumption of natural capital:

1) Fundamental Transformation in human settlement pattern, and

2) Start a long recession / depression.

The second path does not lead to safety and happiness, much less prosperity and the preservation of a democracy with a market economy.

Now the second shoe drops. Maryland’s Montgomery County is planning to “improve” Rockville Pike by turning The Pike into a 19th century boulevard, retrofitted for early 20th century Large, Private Vehicles.

If Tysons had been rebuilt when it was obvious those 1,700 acres would not work as boxes in an asphalt desert – say in 1973,

And if Rockville Pike had been rebuilt when it was obvious The Pike would not work as a string of boxes along an asphalt desert – say in 1973, then

There would been open land outside the Clear Edge in Eastern Loudoun County, VA and in Frederick County, MD.

Now?

Too late.

Every day the resources needed to evolve functional human settlement patterns and replace papier-mache infrastructure are melting away.

According to a CNN pole released today, 75 percent of the citizens of the US of A think things are going badly in this nation-state. If they only knew how badly and for how long the voices of reason had been drowned out by the advocates of Business-As-Usual that supported an unsustainable trajectory, they would be even more concerned.

EMR


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32 responses to “FENDING OFF ’29 BY DOING WHAT MIGHT HAVEHELPED IN ’73”

  1. James Atticus Bowden Avatar
    James Atticus Bowden

    Since 1790 the market averages 7% a year. That’s not a gamble.

    It’s only a gamble if you play it as a gambler.

  2. “A technologically driven consumer based society costs far, far more than citizens have been paying.”

    No, actually it doesn’t. A technologically driven society is more productive, and therefore costs are reduced. Likewise, living in a consumer society provides an incentive to work hard. E.g., I will go to work today so that I can have my Unfortunately Sized Big Screen Plasma TV, as opposed to the “I’ll work where the central planning committee tells me is sustainable so that I can live in my tiny urban hovel and not consume.”

    Newsflash: the Industrial Age has passed. Trade imbalances are about as relevant as strategic reserves of whale oil and candle wax.

    I’m still waiting to hear about my obliviousness. I had my secret decoder ring ready to decipher the gnostic pronouncements, but it turns out EMR is just a tease.

  3. Anonymous Avatar

    Once again EMR you complain about something that occured in the past without any REALISTIC proposals for what to do KNOW

    On the stock market as long as you aren’t dumb enough to sell low this is actually beneficial in the longterm. Just continue to costaverage in every month. You are getting many more shares now.
    For the older folks its all about assset diversification. EMR for your sake I hope you had at least 66% in bonds/fixed assets at your advanced age.

    P.S. I pumped gas for 2.85 in Fairfax this morning

    NMM

  4. I keep asking EMR what happens when our technology-driven world produces GREEN electricity that powers electric cars – which will be ample-sized (large private vehicles which take folks to the wrong-sized house in the wrong-location where he owner goes online to view his 401K.

    What is it about the above vision that probably will not happen in the fast arriving future?

    A shortage of oil, will only accelerate other fuel technologies .. which quite likely will be used to generate electricity for commuting…

    yes.. I know this will come as a shock and a rude upending of the wrong size, wrong location, damnation-is-upon us adherents…

    sigh…….

  5. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “Anyone still think the stock market is not a gambling venue?”

    Yes, I do.

    Gambling is a zero sum game. You take money from the loser and give it to the winner. No value is ever created.

    The stock market is a Delphi negotitiation. A company is worth the present value of its future earnings. At different times, different people are willing to pay differing amounts for that present value, depending on current (and changing conditions) and depending on how long they are willing to wait to collect the value earned.

    Thinking that the stock market is anything like gambling is a fundamental fallacy and an often repeated myth. They are fundamentally different.

    However, if you consider stock as ONLY a trading vehicle, then you are ignoring the difference in value earned and the comparison is somewhat closer. But, to be clear, you are not “betting” on the stock market and the value earned by companies, you are betting on what the other Delphi participants think will happen. As JAB says, it is only gambling if you play it like a gambler.

    I’ve never found a gambling game that consistently pays the profits I’ve earned in the stock market for 35 years. You would have to be an utter fool to take EMR’s economic advice.

    Last years GDP was 13.8 billion dollars. No one I know thinks that next year it will be 9 billion just because the market is down 30%.

    RH

  6. Ray Hyde Avatar

    We’ve been running a trade deficit since the 1970s, but it took off in the late 1990s and has been galloping ever since. All those dollars we send into the world come back to us – some as purchases of our goods and services, and the rest, equal to the trade deficit, as investments.

    Why do you suppose foregn countries invest in America? Because they thinke we are a bad deal, about to founder on the reefs of our own dysfunctional housing?

    No, they invest here because we are still the best deal around, the most reliable, and the most productive.

    RH

  7. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “According to a CNN pole released today, 75 percent of the citizens of the US of A think things are going badly in this nation-state.”

    What does that mean? That our per capita income will grow by less than expected?

    Going badly in what respect?

    RH

  8. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “There would [have] been open land outside the Clear Edge in Eastern Loudoun County, VA and in Frederick County, MD.”

    And that would be a good thing because why? The people who invested in their property would have property that is worth less? They would have saved the money they invested in their property and put it where, in the stock market? Because you presume they drive “too far” to work?

    If open land is such a valuable thing, why not just raise the money and buy it? For the $3million or so PEC WASTED on their power line prevention project, they could have bought and preserved a substantial piece of property.

    RH

    RH

  9. Ray Hyde Avatar

    If foreign energy is cheaper than energy created and bought at home, then how are we better off by spending more for our own energy than we can buy it for.

    Even if we are buying it from our enemies, then we are depeting THEIR resources prior to ours.

    RH

  10. It used to be when you bought a stock – you’d be holding onto it as a major part of the transaction was the annual dividends that you expected.

    You were not really expecting to sell that stock .. unless you thought another company’s stock would give you a better deal on the dividends.

    Because the dividends were the focus – the longer term prospects for those companies was one of the major items on the table of management and the CEOs.

    No longer.

    A stock is expected to “produce”.. by appreciating in value… not over years.. but over weeks and months…

    and it has virtually nothing to do with the concurrency of the company… and, in fact, if a company is well run, with a good bottom line.. and little debt… it is vulnerable to being taken over .. the “brand” exploited and the pieces of parts of the company sold to the highest bidder…

    In this environment.. buying and selling stocks – is basically proffering money on a premise that it will provide a handsome short-term return..

    if it does not..you dump it and go after the ones you think will perform….

    In this context – “Blue Chip” is an oxymoron….

    it’s lost it’s meaning…

    so… you have two choices…

    do your own jack-leg attempts at auto mechanic without a clue about how much of the innards actually work…

    or .. give your money to someone who claims to know how things work.. and pray that he/she will actually represent you .. and not themselves. or their company….

    Some folks may say that it is not a gamble…. but to me.. I feel not so confident …. especially with the DJI varying wildly by hundreds of points from one day to the next…

  11. Ray Hyde Avatar

    The CME volaitility index is no more a fear inex than it is an opportunity index.

    Volitility in the CME market increase the shares traded and the commissions earned. CME stock is doing quite nicely, thank you.

    RH

  12. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “the longer term prospects for those companies “

    “I feel not so confident …. especially with the DJI varying wildly by hundreds of points from one day to the next…”

    QED

    You need to take a longer view than one day to the next, otherwise you are gambling.

    RH

  13. Ray Hyde Avatar

    If it is too late now to do what “might have helped” in 1973, how does that help us fend off what happened in 1929?

    Like Bob said, what do we do now, that is actually achievable, and which will provide us near term benefits? How do we pay for it?

    RH

  14. Darrell -- Chesapeake Avatar
    Darrell — Chesapeake

    Yep, it’s gambling. Yesterday I made 15 percent in about 30 minutes on a gamble. Today the market opened way down, but it’s been a narrow range ever since. Some days you mow the market, others you mow the grass.

    Unless you are in a mutal fund. Then you are the one getting clipped.

  15. Anonymous Avatar

    A lot of the adjustment was done by the individual.

    With the prodding of inflation, households adjusted in the 70’s and 80’s by sending out the wife to work.

    With the prodding of the Fed, households adjusted in the 90’s and 2002 by extracting equity out of their homes.

  16. Anonymous Avatar

    Sending the wife out to work?

    Most women I know were dying to get out of the house. Modern materials and appliances, plus better education made it possible.

  17. Darrell -- Chesapeake Avatar
    Darrell — Chesapeake

    Sept. 29, 2008 RTD — Market jitters don’t shake Va. Pension managers.

    “Before Monday’s record point drop and yesterday’s partial bounceback on Wall Street, the VRS’ return on its investments was down about 7 percent this fiscal year, Schultze said.”

    Oct. 17, 2008 RTD — Va. retirement fund shrinks.

    “The downturn on Wall Street has erased $11 billion — about 20 percent — from the state worker pension fund, but Virginia still has plenty of money to back retirement checks for years.”

    Hey, no big deal. They have plenty of money, and know where to get more. FROM YOU.

    And the hits keep on coming. You ain’t seen nothing yet.

  18. Anonymous Avatar

    Labor participation rate for women have topped out in the high 70s for the last 15 years. The push toward dual incomes was made necessary by the rampant housing inflation in the 70s.

  19. with respect to the stock market, I have a prediction.

    If the market continues it’s drop with another 500-700 point dive… opinions will change.

    I believe some of the more optimistic opinions are based on the belief that the stock market we have today is the same stock market we had before the meltdown…

    .. and I’m not sure that is true any longer but only time will tell…

    only the very truest true believers will hang tough if we drop a 1000 points or more….

    everyone else will be moving/parking their money someone other than the stock market.

    oh… and no.. not one ounce of any of this has anything what-so-ever to do with dysfunctional settlement patterns IMHO.

  20. Darrell -- Chesapeake Avatar
    Darrell — Chesapeake

    “oh… and no.. not one ounce of any of this has anything what-so-ever to do with dysfunctional settlement patterns IMHO.”

    Oh yes it does Larry. Stocks got beat to death in 87 and 91, causing many to shift their investments into real estate. Then after 911, which was targeting Wall street by the way, a huge number of people turned to real estate. Especially when we lowered interest rates to less than inflation. All that money has to go somewhere, ie. EMR’s infamous dysfunctional housing settlements, fancy cars and TVs.

    Now that the bottom has fallen out of housing, and Wall street is once again in meltdown along with pension funds and credit cards, the safe money is heading for the mattress. Settlements are the least of our worries when we have a dysfunctional nation. Everything has a relationship. And guys like Ray and I relish sailing out into this economic maelstrom.

  21. Darrell – are you equating all “real estate” with dysfunctional settlement patterns?

    That was what I meant.

    for the life of me, I cannot see the connection between willy-nilly loan practices across the board having much of anything to do with where homes are located.

    or let me put it this way – I’ve not seen a cogent argument that shows the connection.

    EMR tends to play with generalities and assertions without foundation…

    As far as I can tell.. bad loans were made just about everywhere… urban condos and townhouses, SFH in the exurbs, second homes at the beach and in the mountains, etc.

    and if you buy what the right wingers are saying… that the Government “forced” loan companies to make loans to people who lived in redlinned areas – then why are the bad loans not just limited to (predominately) urban redlinned areas?

  22. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “The downturn on Wall Street has erased $11 billion — about 20 percent –

    1. Most of the 11 billion that was erased came form growth and dividends from investments in the fund. Had those investments not been made, there would have been nothing to erase. The real question is how much of the real investment contributions have been erased.

    2. If they lost 20% in a government managed retirement fund, then it was not sufficiently conservative. I’m down only 17% and I consider my investments to be aggressive. Because of my real estate holdings, I thought that made sense. With real estate and stocks both down, maybe I should have been more conservative.

    In a couple of years, we’ll know.

    RH

  23. Ray Hyde Avatar

    Interestingly, the word arbiters at the headquarters of the Oxford English Dictionary have discovered something odd: “subprime” has suffered a surprising and unusually rapid evolution. Until 1991 it meant something eminently desirable and worthy of aspiration.

    Lexicon is by its very nature a fugitive affair. Over the centuries the meanings of words slip and slide without cease, and dictionaries have to be constantly revised.

    …………

    The dictionary’s New Words Group began looking closely at subprime’s history late this summer, when the bat-wings of the current crisis began fluttering against Oxford’s mullioned windows. Team members discovered that when first applied to financial matters in 1976, “subprime” meant a loan offered below the prime rate and typically was offered only to the most desirable borrowers.

    In was not until 1993 that it took on a much less enticing guise, with Business Wire referring to a company that “buys subprime loans made … to creditworthy buyers unable to qualify for loans from banks.” And an O.E.D. editor was moved to write a new definition: “Of or designating a loan, typically having relatively unfavorable terms, made to a borrower who does not qualify for other loans because of a poor credit history. ”

    And this, one imagines, is the meaning that will go down in history. But what prompted the lexical revisionism? The Oxford lexicographers do not pretend to know why, nor, as dictionary-makers, to care. But they do know the change occurred between 1991 and 1993, …..

    Simon Winchester, New York times.

    So, apparently, sub-prime loans did not necessarily start out as a bad thing.

    RH

  24. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “the safe money is heading for the mattress.”

    If you believe the mattress is safe.

    When you are sailing theopen ocean or the economic maelstrom, you may be getting your ass kicked, but at least you are going somewhere, instead of being caught snoozing on the mattress.

    RH

  25. Darrell -- Chesapeake Avatar
    Darrell — Chesapeake

    Invest in fundamentals. Trade the trend.

    Mutual funds and retirement accounts are investments. When you have an economy that is all over the map, the worst place to have money is in an account with limited control because the pros don’t even know what the fundamentals are. So what we have been seeing is massive distribution from these accounts to the local savings account mattress. Once the storm has subsided, they will move back. Trend watchers will be battered and bruised, but the sunrise is incredible.

    Taking a look at pension funds, CalPers was considered one of the best. They managed around 10 percent a year for the past 20 years, but now they are down 25 with more on the way. They have never lost more than 10 in a single year. On a total account basis, it will take at least 5 years to regain what they have lost, if they can match their average performance. The fund is now seeking an increase in contributions of between 2 and 4 percent minimum. Meanwhile all the fund’s executives are pulling their ripcords, so Calpers participants can expect even more bad news coming down the road. If Calpers was the best, what can the nation’s public employees expect from the rest?

  26. If you have had a 401K for a number of years and you had set a target of 2005-2010 for retirement – what has happened to your plans and how do you get back on track?

    It’s nice to say …that folks need to be thinking of investments over the “long run” but sooner or later – you get to the end of the “long run” and it appears that there is no guarantee that the end of the long run .. achieves one’s personal finance goals – which is what the investment folks have claimed all along -…

    at least, we are better off than Argentina where the Government is taking over people’s pensions……funds

  27. re: subprime

    people can (and will) argue about the meaning and perhaps how it has evolved …but the bottom line is that there has been for many years an accepted standard for a loan said to be “prime” and that is that the collateral for that loan was such that if the loan went into default that the collateral could bring on the market an amount of money sufficient to cover the loan.

    That was accomplished usually by having the borrowing have some “skin” in the game – some equity that he would lose if he did choose to walk away.

    Consider it like a cell phone …early termination fee….

    When you don’t have this in a loan arrangement ..it is “sub”… the level of risk – is no longer an equal proposition – but rather accrues to the one who has loaned the money.

    Now.. any way you cut this… any various definitions and vocabularies will not change the basic premise – that if you make a loan that is “sub” that you are engaging in a risky behavior.

    Under normal bank rules – whether they be governmental or self-imposed – the idea was to only have a certain percentage of these “sub” loans .. roughly what you could cover with your liquid assets if all of the went belly-up at once.

    What we’ve done in all of this is forget that there are “good” loans to folks with good credit and solid employment records who have “skin” in the transaction and the likelihood of default is very small…

    These are folks with credit scores in the 700+ range.

    You have to ask yourself.. why would any “investor” loan money to someone under circumstances that favored the borrow in the event of a default.

    There is also a name for this.

    It’s called “loan sharking” and the “terms” usually involved REAL SKIN and kneecaps…. in place of more traditional collateral….

    😉

  28. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “CalPers was considered one of the best. They managed around 10 percent a year for the past 20 years, but now they are down 25 with more on the way.”

    Well, my personal experience is about as good as CALPERS, and I don’t have dozens of professionals helping me, and I can’t pull the ripcord.

    Once the storm has subsided, there will be no wind. My best runs at sea have been leading up to and out of the storms, not during or between. You can make good runs during the storm, if your stomach is up to it. Like they say, at first you are afraid you will die, then after a few days, you are afraid you won’t die. Either way, the boat usually makes it through, it’s just a question of if you can stand the ride.

    ———————–

    So 10% a year for 20 years is what, 650% compounded. So what if they are down 25%, the only money they have lost so far is money they would never have had without the investments. They are not anywhere near their “mattress money”.

    Like Larry, they have obligations to meet, for which they are out of time. maybe the obligations they took on were too risky for the amount of available money to support them.

    But,they also have payments coming in that they need to put somewhere next month. They can put it in secure investments earning 2% and wait for the calm after the storm, when they will make nothing. Or they can bet on their previous 20 year history of 10% a year.

    Most probable value agrees win NMM: continue to dollar cost average. Why would CALPERS suddenly bet against them selves at this point?

    RH

  29. I can guarantee you that if the stock market drops 1500 points on Monday that Calpers will do some serious thinking…as well as many others..

    it’s all about how much pain you can stand before you lose faith.

  30. the stock market has forever changed.

    The folks that think the stock market will, at some point, return to business as usual are totally not understanding the loss of trust and faith in many people.

    A reputation is hard thing to earn and when you lose it – it’s twice as hard to get back.

    We have a bunch of smart-asses on Wall Street – that think that it’s all about finding loopholes and evading rules ane regs… that ..in the end.. the free market “rules”…

    and these are the guys that you give your money to – to invest.

    I think a lot of people are re-thinking this whole concept..and we will not go back to business as usual…

    I have no idea what it will be instead…but clearly….this mess is a game-changer as they say.

  31. Ray Hyde Avatar

    Calpers will do some serious thinking…

    No doubt. But I don’t see how they can escape the conclusions my most probable value exercise exposes.

    They have a choice of two bad choices, but one of them has an upside, and one doesn’t.

    RH

  32. Ray Hyde Avatar

    I’ll say this though, I doubt if you will hear any Republicans suggest we privatize social security for a long time.

    RH

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