Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

FAIRFAX JOB NUMBERS

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

Alec McGillis reported on the status of jobs in today’s WaPo.

Here is a note we sent Alec:

Nice story on jobs!

Two additions to the coverage would put these facts in geographic context:

1. A map with radial distances out to R=50 miles from the Centroid of the Core graphically showing the location of jobs in 1990 and the growth in jobs from 1990 to 2005.

2. A scaled summary quantification of the total land necessary to support those jobs (Jobs / Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity Balance) at 10 persons per acre at the Community scale.

Hint: There is room in Fairfax County for all the development necessary to support all these jobs within the County if they were distributed in Balanced Communities, and there still would be 50 percent open space in the County. All that is necessary is to let the market work down the vast vacant and underutilized land.

Fairfax has played the hand that was dealt to them by federal and state programs, regulations and laws so it is not all their fault. However, the County has taken advantage of its location to generate employment “tax base” but has failed to evolve the Balanced Communities necessary to curb traffic congestion, energy consumption and other results of dysfunctional settlement patterns.

A lot of folks will read the coverage on job growth and Subregional job distribution and assume that the jobs are scattering to the fringe of the National Capital Subregion. They well also assume that there is no alternative to scattering urban dwellings by the unit, Dooryard, cluster and neighborhood across the Countryside via orphan subdivisions.

There is an alternative.

Keep up the good work…

EMR

Share this article

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

ADVERTISEMENT

(comments below)

Comments

50 responses to “FAIRFAX JOB NUMBERS”

  1. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    We must have read 2 different articles. The one I read in the Post was extremely upbeat regarding Fairfax County creating a lot of great jobs and becoming a second (private industry) job core to go with DC’s federal job core. In fact, Fairfax was seen to be well ahead of SF, San Jose, Boston and Raliegh, NC.

    There was one side comment about congestion.

    Your point in the “Hint:” is baffling. All that is necessary is for the market to work down the vast vacant and underutilized land. What does that mean?

    I’d really like to understand your vision for Fairfax County. If all the existing structures could be bulldozed into the Potomac River – how would you rebuild Fairfax County in this future vision of yours? And – I have to ask you to be patient with me. I don’t know what dooryards, orphan subdivisions and subregions are.

  2. nova_middle_man Avatar
    nova_middle_man

    This article is a must read to understand Fairfax and why traditional landuse/growth patterns wont/dont work in this area. The whole NoVA issue is directly related to the proximity to the DC job engine.

    It should also serve as a lessons learned for PW and Loudoun which are in the middle of managing growth and Fauquier, Caroline and the other exurban counties which are gearing up for growth

    Fairfax has a glutton of business. This was done on purpose to lower the tax rate by avoiding kids and schools. By doing this Fairfax has created a nasty side effect.

    There is a lack of housing relative to jobs in Fairfax

    Because of this one decision, there is an “affordable” housing issue. This has caused people to move out further which has spawned transportation headaches and “wasted” transportation dollars by exapnding routes which are “too far” away from jobs

    To make matters worse instead of addressing the root causes of the problem Fairfax is actually making things worse with the business authority (TMT’s favorite topic 🙂 ) and developing “affordable” housing which just moves the problem to another subset of people who just fall above the housing price line.

    I love the plans on Bacons rebellion but until we correct the jobs/housing imbalance in Fairfax and the reverse effect in PW, Loudoun and other areas all the great ideas in the world will not correct this flaw in the system

    I like to end on hope telecommuting and virtual commuting is a fix to this issue and it is encouraging to see government and private industry continue to embrace this effect. There is also the stagger shift effect which was also discusse in another thread

    Another solution is having more of this development occur in Prince Georges county but the crime/school issues must be resolved first (the same goes for the district itself)

    P.S. growth itself is not bad Fairfax has just taken it to the extreme and caused problems across the whole area.

  3. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Maybe a few facts would help this discussion:

    1. Fairfax County has a population of 1,041,200 (2005). Six US states have lower populations than Fairfax County.

    2. Fairfax County is one of 95 counties in Virginia. However, 1 in 7.5 Virginians live in Fairfax County.

    3. Fairfax County has an area of 1,053 sq. km. It has a population density of 1,018 people / sq km.

    4. Loudoun County has a population density of 126 people / sq km. Prince William County has a population density of 321 people / sq km. Fauqier County has a population density of 33 people / sq km. The City of Richmond has a population density of 1,271 people per sq km.

    5. Fairfax County has a median household income of $94,610/year.

    6. Loudoun has the highest household income at just over $98,000 per year. The state average for Virginia is $53,275 per year.

    7. Arlington County has an area of 67.6 sq km, a population density of 2,932 people / sq km and is the samllest self-governing county in the United States.

    Fairfax County is/has:

    1. 15 times larger than Arlington County.

    2. 31 times the population density of Fauquier County.

    3. Double the state wide household income.

    4. 33.2% African American, Hispanic and Asian vs. a state wide average of 25%.

    5. The lowest homicide rate for all jurisdictions in the United States.

    It’s time to stop lumping dissimilar things together. There is no New Urban Area with both Fauquier County and Fairfax County in it. They are as different as chalk and cheese.

  4. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    NoVA MM – re Fairfax County and businesses. I think that, in the days of Jack Herrity, Fairfax County did have a strategy of trying to attract businesses to keep residential taxes down.

    That doesn’t work anymore. In the late 80 and early 90s, commercial real estate paid c. 275 or 28% of the total Fairfax County real estate tax bill. Last spring, Fairfax County reported that commercial taxpaypers paid 17%+ of the total real estate taxes in the county. Hardly stellar performance!

    Oh, the rhetoric remains. Gerry Connolly and his crowd trumpet their success even as the share of taxes paid by residents keeps its upward trend. If the truth were told, Fairfax County strives to keep the owners of all these new commercial buildings happy without regard to the actual impact on residential real estate taxes. Meanwhile, the BoS argues that we all need to pay higher taxes to let people drive to and from work in Fairfax County because of the great economic benefit to the residents of this county delivered by all the people driving here for their jobs. Huh? That’s what quite a few of us say.

    It’s all a farce, but it keeps the campaign contributions flowing. Fairfax County has government by campaign contribution. You just wouldn’t know by the Post’s articles.

  5. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Time for a commuters’ tax. You work in Fairfax County but live somewhere else – you pay the tax.

  6. nova_middle_man Avatar
    nova_middle_man

    Here is an interesting density map
    from January 2004 too bad its so old

    http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/demogrph/popbut.htm

    Click on Population Density Map at the bottom of the first heading

    The projected population growth map at the bottom of the second heading is also interesting

    Some intersting things to note

    You can draw two concentric cricles radiating out that house more of the density (for EMR :))

    The first one follows the beltway

    The second one arcs out from McLean west to Fairfax City and then curves back around

    This is the “city”

    Then you have the western swatch that parallells 28 running N-S. “the burbs”

    Notice the greenbelt seperating between Reston and Tysons “rural”

    Is it just me or would it make more sense to extend the orange line out 66. (admittedly thats sort of biased Loudoun has more people along the Rt 7 corridor)

    On the projected map in 2025 there isn’t much of a difference the green belt is still there and the densities have increased a tad in the Western sections along the I-66 and 28 corridors
    __________________________________
    Commuter tax thats what DC wants too but it will never happen

    With these congestion pricing ideas you could argue a congestion pricing toll could be placed on the border with Fairfax on 1-95, 1-66 and the Dulles toll road.

    Of course then you would need one on 29, Rt 1, 50, and all the other alternates too or we could use satallites like Oregon 😛

    Did you see the piece about the backlash in London

  7. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    There was an article about the backlash in London? Where?

  8. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    ooooo …. so MUCH to comment on.

    first – “Time for a commuters’ tax. You work in Fairfax County but live somewhere else – you pay the tax.”

    It’s called HOT lanes/congestion pricing

    Then.. if there are TWO urban cores, how come they are SO different in how they are laid out and function… i.e. grid streets vs melange… et al?

    I agree with the comment about the settlement patterns… with respect to the verbiage.

    and it goes along these lines:

    If you want to tell folks how to use their TV remotes, the LAST person you want to do that IS the guy (engineer) who created it.

    🙂

    Besides his life being at risk, his way of thinking is so different from the average person that I’m quite sure the WaPo guy unless he knows EMR probably was scratching his head and saying huh?

    Next, let’s assume EMR is completely correct, it would not suprise me.

    But no.. we cannot bulldoze and start over. Instead, we need an upgrade path which likely would evolve gradually through redevelopment.

    So the absolute most important thing is the need for a white paper/Master Plan for Fairfax to incororporate into it’s development policies.

    That’s the next step I keep alluding to with regard to advocacy.

    It’s sort like the environmentalists decrying the mercury pollution from coal power plants.. but other than generalized advocacy for greener power.. there is no master plan for change.

    FINALLY…. Fairfax IS unique because of the Feds Presence – no question – even if most of the jobs are not direct Fed employment.

    AND .. it’s NOT going to go away. If one agency receives less funding, it’s likely that another will receive MORE funding.

    If it’s a choice between cutting an agencies field office in Cookamunga and it’s headquarters in DC… DITTO.

    HOWEVER, Fairfax is NOT unique with regard to rush hour congestion, no matter where the jobs come from.

    Every major central urban area with Interstates has developed settlement patterns in almost exactly the same way….

    In fact, I would challenge anyone to show me a similiar sized urban area that is different in terms of rush hour congestion… et al.

  9. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    “In fact, I would challenge anyone to show me a similar sized urban area that is different in terms of rush hour congestion, et al.”

    “Then … if there are two different cores, how come they are SO different in how they are laid out and how they function … i.e. grid streets vs. melange, et al.”

    Is everything the same or is everything different?

    We need a white paper or master plan?

    OK.

    Roughly, at a high level – what would the white paper say?

    Create a series of mini-cities in Fairfax County. Let’s say 5 mini-cities (Reston, Springfield, Annandale, Clifton and Fairfax – or something like that). The mini-cities would be high density, mixed use areas capable of housing about 200,000 people (and the associated jobs) each. Let’s say that these 5 mini-cities were developed from a center point, in a circle with a 6 Km radius. That would be a bit over 100 sq Km per mini-city with a population density of 2,000 people per sq km. Arlington County is almost 3,000 people per sq km so there’s room to grow a bit.

    So, now we have room for the entire current population of Fairfax County in 5 mini-cities which comprise about 1/2 of Fairfax County’s land area.

    These population centers would also be transportation centers (commuter rail), Education Centers (schools would occupy much of the outer ring), retail, residential and commercial centers.

    If you lived in the center of the mini-city, you would be within a 6 Km (3.6 mi.) walk to any point in the city.

    The remainder of the county would be low density co-ordinated residential area. There is about 125,000 acres of land left in Fairfax County after the mini-cities are removed. Let’s say that we want no more than 1 home per 5 acres to allow for “green space”, etc. That’s 25,000 homes with an average of 5 people / home gives us about 125,000 people living in the low density areas.

    Is this – even approximately – what you are suggesting?

  10. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Groveton –

    yes.

    Here’s the essence.

    If you cannot explain to someone one page the essential concept – then you’re in trouble in terms of public support which means that you’re in trouble with the public advocating the concept to their elected.

    Specifically, what I am suggesting (which is way more than one page but intended to further explain the one-pager) is a Regional level comprehensive planning document or equivalent.

    I’m not smart enough to know how the terrain and geography SHOULD be allocated in terms of land-use but what I do know that without that map and a white paper explaining it that advocacy for changes in settlement patterns AND transportation is mostly moot.

    We cannot bulldoze Fairfax and I don’t see us ripping up pavement at least just yet.

    I don’t see I-95 and I-495 going away.

    So WHAT IS IT that we should be steering this huge boat TOWARDS.

    AND…

    what is the navigational path for getting us there?

    If these two things are not present in the public dialogue then what should we expect to happen?

    And it could be that I’m totally numnut on this in terms of timeline… if this is not going to happen until 2050.. then I’ll bow out of the discussion.. way too distant for me to deal with.

  11. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Let me add one question.

    What is wrong with the current comprehensive plans for Fairfax and surrounding areas and how would they be changed?

    This would seem to be a logical step to me but if the answer is that the existing political jurisdictional allocation is wrong, I see two paths.

    One would be to change it and I think that would even more unrealistic than bullodzing… but who knows.

    The other path would be regional cooperation to achieve what is being advocated on a regional basis – which I think is a less difficult path.

    And of course all parties need to acknowledge that this will always be a work in progress and that none of us will be around to see the Jetson’s transformation…

  12. Jim Wamsley Avatar
    Jim Wamsley

    No.

    You start with what you have. You add population to places like Tysons Corner, Merrifield, and Reston. You add the supporting transportation systems.

    You set aside low density areas to protect green space and the water supply. You develop the remainder of Fairfax County at the 5 to 10 houses per acre level.

    You provide schools, transportation and municipal services to support this plan.

    This is a major change where you lone large lots and provide schools and roads first to new development in outlying counties with long commutes to work.

  13. Lawrence Avatar
    Lawrence

    JW – right on.

    but we need a more precise articulation in my view.

    This walks and talks a lot like VDOT’s approach to roads – “we need more… and here’s some good ones and no .. we don’t know what comes next or why… just keep building”…..

    Is the idea behind 10X that it is generalized enough to be implementable ANYWHERE or are there specific instances where you start with the same template but you end up with something tailored to existing circumstances?

    Would a 10X re-development plan for Cleveland look the same as Fairfax?

    Where is the map for NoVa that people can look at? … you know.. like the one the pro-road folks put out with all the “future” roads?

    (I’m appealing to JW’s “road” perpsective here) 🙂

  14. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    So many good comments, so much misunderstanding, so little time, such important issues:

    Jim W. thank you for stepping in and helping out.

    First an appology for spelling and omissions.

    Groveton: Here is an edit of the Hint:

    “Hint:” All that is necessary is for the market to work down the vast inventory of vacant and underutilized land in locations that evolve Balanced Communties.”

    It means what Jim W says. You do not need to bulldoze anything. Let the market for urban fabric work. Put in new housing where there are jobs, new jobs where there are houses but do it to create Balanced Communities — Nine in Fairfax Counties 244,000 acres and it would leave 1/2 for open space.

    Perhaps the biggest problem here is that in the planning vocabulary there is no stated standard for what works, what mix, what density at what scale. That is why we examined what the market says and what developers build if they have to pay the full cost. The Five Natural Laws. (A=, U, 10 X, 10 Persons, 87 1/2 %).

    The biggest missing link is an understanding of how little land is needed for jobs / housing / services / recreation / amenity in comparison to the amount that speculators want to sell. Do the numbers. Buy the 50 mile Radius Map, plot the densities yourself.

    Chauk and Cheese? Sorry Groveton is is all one Pizza. If you can prove there is a third ordering system there is a Nobel in it for you. Otherwise, If I were you I would be careful of what you eat.

    Understanding the need for Fundamental Change in human settlement patterns is not rocket science, it is more difficult.

    You have to start with a Comprehensive Conceptual Framework if you do not like ours, build one yourself.

    Then you need a Vocabulary without Core Confusing Words.

    Then you need to look at what works for a democracy with a market economy in the long term, not just a great place for me to do what I want to do today.

    I wish you could all gather in our Studio and look at some maps.

    Alec MacGillis has been here and he understands more than most. That is why I bother to write to him. Problem is he works for editors who do not and a publisher who believes he will loose his company if he has to face Fundamental Change.

    EMR

  15. Jim Wamsley Avatar
    Jim Wamsley

    Lawrence:

    We have had a number of plans that articulate both the problem and the solution. The COG wedges and corridors plan is usually considered the first in the series. Fairfax County zoned for it and then passed one exception that in effect rezoned the County for the current large lot cal-de-sac development.

    Both the Northern Virginia 2010 plan and the Northern Virginia 2020 plan called for spending 50% of the transportation budget on transit to support high density town centers. VDOT instead spent the money on roads creating more congestion.

    10X is not a redevelopment plan. It is the basis for changing large lot zoning to agricultural and forest zoning. The current practice of subsidizing hobby farms creates a situation where agricultural land is over valued and over taxed. Farmers should be able to make a living on the farm. The second income from long distance commuting to town is one facet of our commuter problem.

    One proposal is the Blueprint for a Better Region: http://www.betterregion.org/

    The Blueprint defines and promotes a positive vision to citizens, business community, local and state officials, media, and opinion-makers, and demonstrates the feasibility of the policies necessary to make this vision a reality. Instead of pursuing isolated responses to sprawl, the project is a coordinated and comprehensive strategy that helps put “growth in the right places.”

  16. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    A Few More Notes then I have an appointment.

    Nova Middle Man. Thanks for the map reference! It illustrates what is needed. A job map and a servcies map to overall.

    Then ther is the scale. The cells are so big that they distort.

    Then you need to apply the standards from our last post.

    Since it is all one pizza the Centroid we use for Radius Analysis is the Virginia End of the Memorial Bridge. R=10 is just outside the Beltway. Most of what is inside R=20 is in the Core of the National Capital Subregion. The Clear Edge should be at around R=23 +/-.

    Groveton:

    Your “mini-city” is on the right track. “City” is a Core Confusing word. We call these places Balanced Communities and there are 9 or 10 depending on how you divide things up with Arlington and Alexandria. (Existing municipal borders are historical artifacts, not a reason to delimit a Balanced Community.

    Keep up the good work…

    EMR

  17. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    OK – JW – We’re on the same page, conceptually at least.

    Let me try a little math.

    1 mile – 5,280 ft
    1 Km = .62 mi
    Therefore, 1 Km = 3273 ft
    Therefore, 1 Sq Km = 10,712,529 sq ft

    1 Acre = 43,560 Sq Ft
    Therefore, 1 Sq Km = 246 acres

    Fairfax County has 1,053 Sq Km
    Therefore, Fairfax County has 259,038 acres.

    Fairfax County has a current population of just over 1M people. Therefore, Fairfax County has a population density of about 4 people per acre.

    If we’re looking to the future, let’s say we’re planning for a future population of 2M (Still a lower population density than Arlington County today). That would give us a planned, average population density of 8 people per acre.

    Of course, averages are deceiving. Some land is unbuildable, some is devoted to corprate and governmental use.

    Let’s make some assumptions – just for the sake of creating an example.

    1. 25% of the land is unbuildable.
    2. 25% of the land is devoted to non-residential use.
    3. 50% of the land can be used for residences.

    Of the 50% that can be used for residences:

    1. The high density, mixed use mini-cities will have about the same population density as the City of Philadelphia has today (5,000 per Sq. Km.).
    2. The mid density areas will have the 5 – 10 houses per acre you mention in your post. Let’s call that 10 houses with an average of 4 people / house. That’s 40 people per acre or a population density of 9,840 per Sq Km. Yikes! That’s approximately the average population density in New York City today. Let’s go with the low end of 5 houses per acre. That gives us 4920 per Sq Km. That’s just a bit more than the City of Philadelphia’s current population density of 4,021 per Sq Km. That still seems too high. Let’s go with 1/2 that for the mid density – 2,500 per Sq Km – a bit less than Arlington.
    3. The low density will have one home (of 5 people) per 5 acres. So, 1 person per acre or 246 people per Sq Km. Yikes! Again! Fairfax County’s low density is twice Loudoun County’s average density. That can’t be right. Let’s put 1 home on every 10 acres and try to get (at least) down to the Loudoun average for Fairfax’s low density. That’s 123 people per Sq Km.

    So, where are we?

    1. We have 129,519 acres to use for residential space.
    2. 5 Mini-cities take up about 100 Km each – that’s 500 Sq Km. But they are only about 1/2 residential so that 250 Sq Km. That’s 61,500 acres of Fairfax County’s available 129,519. We’ll use a New York City population density here and plan on about 5,000 people per Sq Km (in the residential space)which puts 1.25M of the county’s 2M people in the high density areas.
    3. We have 60,000 acres left. Or, 244 Sq. Km. We also need to “locate” 750,000 people. If we put them all in mid density housing we’d need … 300 Sq Km. Damn! We’re 56 Sq Km short. Let’s up the mid density to 4,000 per Sq Km (Philly levels). And … let’s allocate 150 Sq Km to mid density at 4,000 people per Sq Km. That’s 600,000 people in the mid-density. We still have 94 Sq Km left. And 150,000 people. 1,595 per Sq Km. That’s substantially worse than today’s Fairfax County average. Certainly not green space.

    This just won’t work.

    If America is to grow then we can’t just keep piling people into the “high growth” counties and keep the “low growth” counties rural. It just doesn’t work.

    Note: I did these calculations on “the back of a napkin”. I am sure that many assumptions are wrong. I am sure that many math errors were made. I’ll try to get the basics into a spreadsheet as I can. However, I think this kind of dialog is useful. At least, it applies some quantitative analysis to the problem that has been qualitatively discussed on this blog.

  18. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Note: The population of Fairfax County roughly doubled in the 30 years from 1975 – 2005. My calculations are based on another doubling in the next 30 years and should be considered in that timeframe.

  19. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    Adding population to Fairfax County, along with the supporting infrasructure. Nice, if it were really to occur.

    Fairfax County does not have the inrastructure to support the people we have today. As I’ve written ad nauseum, Cooper Middle School in McLean serves its first lunch before 10 am because the County did not build sufficient capacity to serve the student growth in McLean and Great Falls. Brand new South County Secondary School is already overcrowded. Ever visit a county park on a weekend? Our wastewater treatment plants need expansion. The BoS support the Silver Line that will force taxpayers to build a new $6 M plus tunnel under the Potomac River. Etc., etc., etc.

    These results, both in terms of deteriorating quality of life and higher taxes, are simply unacceptable to more and more existing residents of the County. Why should we suffer to save other counties in Virginia? If this is the price residents of Fairfax County must pay, IMO, we’d rather see sprawl to Richmond and to West Virginia. People who don’t movoe to Fairfax County place less of a burden on those of us who already live here

  20. nova_middle_man Avatar
    nova_middle_man

    TMT made the NIMBY (Not in my backyard argument again) I agree with him and so do most of the people in Fairfax. The majority of people don’t want any more growth period until the existing inferstructure can “catch up” at a bare minimum.

    After the inferstructure catches up, I agree the best and most practical way is to build out at the already urban centers but do people want this?

    The question still remains do people want a bunch of mini-cities in Fairfax County. Again my “feeling” is that most of the people that currently live there don’t want expansion.

    Vienna fought back and won, Tysons Corner/Mclean is contesting, Merrifield didn’t mobilize effectively and “lost”
    __________________________________

    In many of the redevelopment areas the surrounding community is not as organized as Vienna/Mclean to provide an input. When these areas are redeveloped who does it actually serve? hint its usually not the existing members of the community
    __________________________________
    Groveton,

    Fairfax county is “nearly” built out. It did double over the last 30 years but in the next 30 years it will only increase by 20%
    The silver line might increase this projection a bit but not by too much IMHO.

    heres the link again

    http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/demogrph/popbut.htm

    I would also argue its not practical for Fairfax to have 2 million people as your numbers suggest
    __________________________________

    The next 30 years Loudoun and Prince William will double. (Arlington was first then Fairfax, now its PW and Loudouns turn) Maybe the ideas discussed here could work there. Arlington did well, Fairfax did not. The main hangup of course is that Arlington is so much smaller. How do you properly develop a county?

    Fairfax “messed up” we grew too fast and used too much sprawl we were not “efficient”.

    However, balance that with the fact that “most” people are dying to live in Fairfax so did we really “mess up” or only from the standpoint of efficiency

    At what point do you balance eficiency with quality of life issues

    ___________________________________

    It all boils down to the main debate. Even if the costs of suburbia were priced in would people choose to live in urban city pod based environments or just pay a “suburbia inefficinecy tax”

    P.S. the “rural inefficiency tax would be higher than the suburbia inefficiency tax”

    ___________________________________

    Another link to help out

    http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/maps/gallery.htm

    Transportation map was pretty cool
    Also note the disconnect between planning districts and supervisor districts = no elected accountability

    Agree we need to make sure the local counties are talking to each other.

    phew i’m spent
    have a good afternoon

  21. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    After Groveton posted the density specs for Fairfax… and then alluded to other places… I decided to do a little validation by looking at an established City in Virginia – Richmond.

    60 square miles and 194,000 people.. works out to about 5 people per acre … a density at
    3292 per acre.

    Fairfax is a million at 395 square miles and a density of 2455 per acre.

    http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/51/51059.html

    http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/51/5167000.html

    Pick others cities… if comparing these two doesn’t “work” but I guess I was thinking the same way that Groveton is and that is to look at well established urban core urban area as a reference.

    This is why I asked if there existed a map with suggested densities that clearly illustrated the goal…

    I know this was “sorta” done at Reality Check… and I keep bringing that up … to a resounding silence… 🙂

    Take a look at the site and especially the sponsors which are diverse and includ Smarter Growth folks.

    http://washington.uli.org/Content/NavigationMenu30/Outreach/RealityCheck/default.htm

  22. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    I like your getting into the numbers but you are making some bad assumptions:

    Nova Middle Man noted the population growth problem. Repeated doubling is the growth strategy of cancer cells and is not sustainable in an organic system.

    Your assumption of 25 % of the total county for non residential uses is wildly high. It is typically less that 10 % of the developed area inside a Clear Edge.

    There are a series of 95 % / 5 % ratios that are useful but too detailed to outline here. We do it in Handbook.

    There are two that are of use here. Nation-wide we need 5 % for urban land uses. Commonweath wide is is about 4 % and that is at minimum sustaianable density at the Alpha Community Scale.

    The other is that within a Balanced Community about 40 % of the land is typically open space at 10 persons per acre but only 2 or 3 % is “intensively urban.” In Arlington County — with shared-vehicle station area development that is on everyones (and the markets) best practices list) only 5 % of the land area is intensivelly developed according to County data. The rest is leafy green “traditional” neighborhoods, parks, stream valleys, etc.

    When you get the numbers right, the picture snaps into focus.

    I am with you on the need to convert to metric but few have so stick to feet and acres.

    Also avoid square miles, few other than my dry land farmer friends in Montana can deal with square miles. It is easy to think of Fairfax County as being 400 sq miles but a lot easier to work with 244,000 or round up to 250,000 acres.

    Keep up the good work…

  23. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Larry:

    You may recall we favor the work by Lucy and Phillips at UVA because they use small areas for data analysis. The map you refereced uses Subcensus Tracts and they are quite useless — too big. Municipal borders are completely useless except for gross calculations like the Arlington one cited above.

    You are right to keep referencing Reality Check. We were invoved in the early stages and if one figures out the real densities, those maps were quite sound.

    Also the Blueprint material that Jim W noted is very good for getting a handle on densities around shared-vehicle (METRO) stations.

    I just wish we could all sit down in our studio and go over the maps from North America to the cluster and dooryard level.

    Unfortunatly, no one is willing to pay for that level of understanding because those who make money from development make it, by in large, from dysfuctional scatteration. And those are the ones who provide the political contributions….

    Some are beginning to listen as noted in todays Fauquier Times Democrat.

    Keep up the good work…

    EMR

  24. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    EMR/All –

    Folks should not take my criticsm as something other than constructive.

    My view is that if people that are on your side ask HARD questions that they are doing you a favor… much like the exercise in a mock debate.

    Convince me – and you’ll also convince the average person and probably even some critics.

    If the stuff we are referencing is not useful wrong/scope/scale/etc…. I need to ask… does the data to validate your concept exist so as to be able to validate a different approach?

    I basically have a simple-minded approach and that is that some of this can be solved by just allocating the actual costs to those that incur them.

    and I have one basic rule – and that is that ultimately the market rules. You can put artificial barriers in place but the market will find it’s way around them and ultimately contribute even more to the dysfunctional nature of transportation and settlement patterns.

  25. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Larry, Properly allocating locational costs is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition, for achieving access and mobility. At the micro level, we also need to re-think segregated land uses, density restrictions, zoning codes and all the other regulations that mandate the “sprawl” pattern of development and discourage all others. At the very least, we need to enable alternative development codes. At the “macro” level, we need to steer public resources into creating balanced communities. We need all three.

  26. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Jim – I agree especially with removal of obstacles in the codes and ordinances…

    .. but the term “avoidable costs” comes to mind with respect to not only individuals but governments.

    If you have an environment where existing by-right development ends up with insufficient mobility infrastructure …
    … what is the response of the local government?

    Do you think they are going to change the by-right development rights to be even more dense?

    Is this the reason why localities put ultra low by-right densities on land?

    So .. let’s say you would like to “enable” them to do the right thing and designate the higher densities that are deemed a better approach.. how would you do that?

    Correction – how would you do that if the Virgnia Association of Home builders can and does kill any legislation that would enable localities to fairly price the infrastructure that would be needed by higher densities?

    That leaves one option – raising property taxes on existing residents.

    This will “work” for exactly one election cycle – then what?

    As an aside – when we get to this level – I have a really hard time distinquishing between a “conservative” approach and a “liberal” approach… or am I just dense? (pun intended) 🙂

  27. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Larry:

    Pun or no, your observation is valid:

    When all the facts and parameters are on the table 80 % agree and there is no “conservative” or “liberal” position.

    That scares the devil the Elephant Clan and the Donkey Clan because they loose the ability to scare people to vote for them so they can win by 50.1%.

    I, and I beleive others, do not take offense at hard questions, I just do not have the time to answer all of them that I see and, in addition, miss many others.

    The shorter and the sharper the question, the easier to answer or tell you where the answer is.

    One other thing, there is a role for government because the market does not deal well with futures. It discounts them and perhaps it should leverage them but that is not the way it works.

    EMR

  28. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Many thanks to all for the commentary on my “back of the napkin” analysis. I will use your estimates, links, etc in my spreadhseet model for Fairfax County. I need to model to undderstand the problem – I am not so vain as to expect that I’ll find “the answer”.

    Regarding the impossibility of Fairfax doubling in population in the next 30 years – be careful. I lived in Fairfax County in 1975 and I live here now. If you would have told people in 1975 that Fairfax County would double in population over the next 30 years you’d have been laughed out of the room. I was attending a Fairfax County High School (Groveton High School actually) in 1975. I went to lots of classes in trailers. The county’s infrastructure was insufficient for the 1975 population. It couldn’t possibly double but double it did.

  29. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    By Right Development – Let me propose that, as a general matter, most developers in Fairfax County will not build to what is currently permitted by the Comprehensive Plan. IMO, the costs of construction and the value of land is simply too high. In most locations, they desparately need more density. Why then don’t Fairfax County elected officials call their bluffs? What is the added density worth? Certainly more than the campaign contributions and token proffers that are given today.

  30. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    “Perhaps the biggest problem here is that in the planning vocabulary there is no stated standard for what works, what mix, what density at what scale.”

    Agreed. I have said it shouldn’t be too hard to go examine those communities that DON’T have congestion and which also are not starving, and see what works.

    I doubt we would use Fairfax or New York, or Paris, or Portland, as a model.

    “That is why we examined what the market says and what developers build if they have to pay the full cost.”

    How do you know what developers build IF they have to pay the full cost? Has that ever happened?

  31. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    “until we correct the jobs/housing imbalance in Fairfax and the reverse effect in PW, Loudoun and other areas all the great ideas in the world will not correct this flaw in the system”

    Probably the single most cogent remark ever made on this blog.

    Fairfax is exporting it’s problems, we shoud send them the bill. When they have to pay their full locational costs, then this madness will stop.

  32. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    I listened to a spokesman for the Washington Board of trade on this topic on the way to work. Onthe way home I listened to a spokesman for Montgomery County economic development.

    His take was that Montgomery county was “doing pretty well” while still attempting to maintain a balance between housing, roads, and schools.

    He made a pretty good argument, but, frankly, he sounded a little glum.

  33. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Yeah? So why did it take me almost two years to get a building permit: for a by right construction on a lot with water and sewer?

  34. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Groveton, if you are serious about the model, contact me. I’ve built some extremely complex models. I’d sugggest that it will take more than a spreadsheet.

  35. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    “there is a role for government because the market does not deal well with futures.”

    See. It is possible for EMR and I to agree. At least on premises. Where we have a problem is on conclusions.

  36. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: low-density by-right

    I assume folks know and agree with the philosophy behind designating by-right as low-density.

    Right now, it’s the only way that the county can force a developer to the negotiation table for infrastructure proffers.

    The opposite approach .. and I’d like to hear EMR and JW would be to designate higher by-right densities WHERE the county wants that to occur…

    .. but the problem is that then you have lost your ability to negotiate
    infrastructure proffers (because, in part, that Impact Fees are limited and essentially crippled).

    One other thought – for ALL by-right, you can seriously limit default uses so that a Special Permit is required.

    This gives the locality a little bit more ability to influence what the projects look like.

    Some folks.. in this blog.. unless I misunderstand think that the things I discuss above are wrongheaded and that the best circumstance is not to have any of these restrictions and let the “marketplace” dictate who build what when and where and how.

    Am I wrong about this viewpoint?

  37. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “The current practice of subsidizing hobby farms creates a situation where agricultural land is over valued and over taxed. Farmers should be able to make a living on the farm.”

    Hobby farms are not subsidized, unfortunately, despite their often substantial value to society. (And if you don’t understand why they give back significant value, check out some web sites like the American Livestock Breeds Conservancy.)

    People buy “hobby farms” because they love agriculture and farming, and realize that the economics don’t work for small producers any more. The benefits of locally grown produce are real and substantial (have you read Pollan’s book? You should.)

    You can’t raise horses on a quarter acre lot. You can’t raise organic heritage turkeys in your back yard. But there is real and substantial value to SOCIETY AS A WHOLE when people do so on small farms.

    These are often people whose families have lived and farmed in Virginia for generations, and know and understand, far better than you appear to, the tradeoffs with factory agriculture, and the huge loss to our country in the loss of traditional family farms. They are precious and our country needs them to be preserved. They are not a toy. They are a vital part of our heritage.

    What “subsidies” does a hobby farmer get? Or want? You pay a fortune for land if you buy it, even if you buy it from family, competing with people who want to put McMansions on it – you work like a dog, basically working two jobs, because you love the land and the heritage of it – and then you listen to people who know nothing about agriculture, lecturing you about how “agriculture should pay.”

    I don’t want to be a factory farmer, and I want to preserve something for the next generation. Living close to the land is unique and valuable. You should applaud and encourage preserving our heritage, not criticize it and make unrealistic and uneconomic suggestions.

  38. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Ray:

    “Fairfax is exporting its problems”. I am not sure how that’s true. The jobs are booming in Fairfax. Fairfax also has the lion’s share of the population. Fairfax has intra-county problems but isn’t exporting problems.

    Loudoun is exporting problems. They allow high density development without the necessary job base. Their residents clog Rt 7 in Fairfax County driving to the jobs in Tyson’s.

  39. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Fairfax is exporting it’s affordable housing responsibilities.

    Fairfax is not providing enough housing for the people who work at jobs there.

    Loudoun is a “willing” victim of Fairfax’s policies by good-ole boy manipulation of the approval process to let land speculators develop land without adequate road instrastructure.

    ditto with the outer fringe localities who are being forced to provide housing for those who work in Fairfax.

    And doubly… worse.. all taxpayers are being told they must pay the money to upgrade the roads that these outcast use to commute from the victimized counties to their Fairfax Jobs.

    It’s the same old same old.

    The wealthy are “using” localities as venues to improve their own finances at the expense of taxpayers.

  40. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    Larry,

    You are giving Fairfax County officials too much credit. Importing workers to Fairfax County’s commerical buildings may have increased the County’s cash flow, but it sure hasn’t helped the average resident. In the late 1980s & early 1990s, commercial property owners paid well over 27% of total real estate taxes. This fiscal year, it’s under 18%. Meanwhile the very same real estate investors are screaming for tax increases to keep their personal money machines running.

    The bottom line: real estate development is a net loser for the average citizen regardless of where he or she lives. We need real estate development over time, so let’s change the ground rules.

  41. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    TMT – give them credit on their “theory” but as you point out – it’s a failed strategy.

    Basically you have to ask yourself who WINs with more commercial and residential development if it is not the taxpayers in Fairfax and not the taxpayers in the outer fringe areas including Frederickburg and Loudoun.

    And the answer is….. those that benefit financially from growth .. and it’s certainly not the folks who have to pay property taxes or endure long commutes.

  42. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    Larry:

    “Fairfax is exporting its affordable housing responsibilities”.

    To Loudoun?

    You must be kidding.

    Loudoun County has the highest household income (by county) in Northern Virginia, in Virginia and (I believe) in the United States of America.

    These are not people living far from the jobs because Fairfax County has too little affordable housing. These are the richest people in the country living just where they want to live.

  43. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Groveton:

    You are not listening.

    Those folks moving to Loudoun are well to do but not well enough to do to buy the house they want near the job they have.

    Check out the market: The same house by the same builder with a few superficail upgrades on the same size lot near those Fairfax jobs sells for nearly twice as much as in Loudoun.

    You are getting your preconcieved ideas and political philosphy run over economic reality.

    EMR

  44. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    Groveton –

    Have you ever heard the phrase –

    “drive til you qualify”?

    Also.. have you ever taken the time to talk to people who live in the outer counties and ask them why they bought their house there?

    If you did – the answer you’d get is that they could not afford a house in Fairfax and that they could in the outer fringes.

  45. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Fairfax has a master plan, and it looks nothing like EMR or JW’s.

    495 and 66 are not going away, and neither is alot of other development, not for a long time. The idea of developing the rest of fairfax at 5 to ten homes per acre is ludicrous. That is town house territory, and all those townhouses will have cars. Groveton’s 3.6 miles is far to big to be walkable, if you are carrying anything. 2000 feet is more like it.

    So, you either have to go the PRT route, which has never been done on a large scale, or you have to carve out a lot more of the living area for streets and open spaces, so there goes your ten homes per acre.

    Since it is more expensive to redevelop than to build new, you are back to square one.

    Notice how casually JW says to set aside low density areas for water supply, etc. Does anybody see that this is a giant land grab? Somebody owns all that stuff, developed or vacant, and if you want them to do what you want done, then you should expect to pay them.

    Where will the money come from?

  46. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    I don’t assume that ALL jobs are scattering to the fringe, but some are. My wife has one of them.

    Also, the bulk of jobs are no longer in what was formerly the core, where we spent billions to build Metro. So now we will spend more billions to move Metro to where the core is, an area even less suited to mass transit, money we KNOW will not reduce congestion.

    Sounds like bad planning to me.

    If we really want to promote better living in Fairfax, why are we sending Metro to Loudoun? On the other hand, how can you justify spending more money on places people are leaving? Some people will still claim the answer is ten homes per acre; put the homes where the jobs are, no matter how awful it gets, it is more efficient and saves money.

    Never mind that some people are willing to spend more to live better. Those same people are willing to slam the door behind them, as if they had the right to use up the last bit of freedom.

  47. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    “So now we will spend more billions to move Metro to where the core is”

    is this true?

    Isn’t the idea that WHERE you plan and develop transit that you are explicitly expecting “cores” to grow around transit?

    Are is it that you believe that designating land for specific uses and intensities is a wrong approach?

    If you believe the latter, then I can understand why you think that transit “follows” development and also understand why you think transit should only occur where development has already occurred at a certain density – often without adequate roads to serve it.

    In other words.. you see transit as a pallative treatment for bad planning.. right?

  48. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    re: Transit that does not reduce congestion.

    two points –

    Let’s get straight on this.

    If an area NEVER grew – would transit reduce EXISTING congestion?

    In other words, take out the growth and then tell me if transit reduces congestion.

    or, let’s turn this around. REMOVE transit – and using your theory – congestion would not get worse – right?

    and oh by the way…

    when you say that transit does not reduce congestion have you ever used that same criteria to judge road projects.

    Go take a look at the Inter-County Connector – and see what it claims as benefits… and try to find the phrase “will reduce congestion” –

    Now, I’ll ADMIT that a project like the Springfield Interchange does reduce LOCAL congestion with the privso that by doing so, it really that speeds cars to other congestion bottlenecks that have not been fixed.

    But let’s get to the point.

    If the Springfield Interchange was built the way it should have been to deal with the traffic that they knew would be there – it would have been VERY, VERY expensive just as folks claim that transit is.

    What we do with roads… is NOT equivalent to transit because when transit extends – it has to plan and account for congestion and impacts on the rest of it’s network.

    If transit extended a line – and the result was degraded service on a network basis because of that extention… transit – as a concept would fail.

    But you don’t use the same criteria for roads – and the reality is that by adding new and uncoordinated segments to the existing road network – you don’t improve it – you actually feed MORE traffic onto it and end up overloading other segments and actually making congestion worse.

    With transit, when the car is full, you wait for another.

    Why don’t we do that with congestion on the roads?

  49. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Let us get this straight:

    Shared-Vehicle Systems (aka, “transit”) do not remove congestion by allowing everyone to jumping on the train and go where ever they want to go when every they want to go there. That does not work any better than Private-Vehicle transport systems (aka, Autonomobility).

    Shared Vehicle Systems work because they support some high value trips for those who live and work in staion-areas and at the same time support patterns and densities of settlemetn that allow many “trips” to be taken without resorting to any vehicle.

    Shared-Vehicle systems allow citizens to assemble the elements of a quality life without taking nearly as many vehicle trips to do it.

    The market for jobs, houses, services, redreation and amenity demonstrate that these shared-vehicle served patterns and densities are more highly valued, and consume far less resources per square foot than scattered urban land uses.

    Not everyone likes these patterns and densities but these patterns and densities are also not “Manhattan.” Many do favor them as demonstrated by the market.

    These settlement patterns also consume far less resources, especially energy for travel.

    Shared-Vehicle settlement patterns also take up a tiny percentage of the land, especially when they encourage air-rights development over what are otherwise transport system created barriers.

    The Autonomobility crowd, land speculators and other elements of Business-As-Usual like to cite irrelivent data in an attempt to keep citizens and their represetives from taking actions in the market and in the voting booth to reflect spacial reality.

    EMR

  50. Larry Gross Avatar
    Larry Gross

    when I see this – the first thing that comes to mind – as stated earlier –

    take an infill redevelopment proposal…

    one just one?

    because this is how this plays out… one decision at a time.

    What are the elements of such a proposal that would make it a good move towards better settlement patterns?

    Is it something the project itself can control with it’s elements or is it the local jurisdictions ordinances and policies or is it a Region solution .. or as Rodger Advocates – a state level solution with new laws and a new Planning Agency that can overule local and regional jurisdictional decision-makers.

    For me – this is a huge chasm between what is advocated conceptually verses what needs to happen “on the ground” for change.

    For any change to go forward – you have to have an army of advocates… at all levels… vice one or two lone voices in the wilderness.

    If advocated changes are so complex and complicated that only die-hard wonks can understand them.. then you have a very steep uphill to climb….

    as usual – these are not “unfriendly” questions – just questions – that ultimately will need to be answered … before this concept gets bigger/stronger “legs”.

Leave a Reply

Read More