If anyone thought that analyzing the traffic impact of local zoning and planning decisions would lead to more rational land use patterns, it’s time to reconsider. The Kaine administration’s pilot project — using VDOT traffic analysis to inform the land-use debate in fast-growing Loudoun County — took less than a week to become totally politicized. Traffic analysis, it seems, will become just one more tool that political interests use to batter one another.
In a letter last week, the Virginia Department of Transportation criticized a planning proposal to permit 28,000 housing units in the Dulles South district of Loudoun County, up from 5,000 previously allowed. VDOT’s “preliminary analysis” indicated that the development in the South Dulles district of the county would overwhelm the local transportation infrastructure, creating gridlock for miles around. (See “Batteries Not Included.”)
According to Leesburg2Day, Loudoun supervisors responded by describing the letter as a “distortion” and a political ploy by the Kaine administration to make the case for tax increases. Setting aside the rhetoric, VDOT critics leveled two substantive charges during a Board of Supervisors meeting. First:
It was unclear whether VDOT’s study showed that the impacts described in [the] letter would be caused specifically by new homes in the Dulles area or anticipated growth in general. In addition, [VDOT official Dennis] Morrison said a baseline study was not performed to compare the proposed new homes’ impact with a less dense option.
Translation: People gotta live somewhere. If you put those 28,000 households somewhere else, they’re still going to generate traffic congestion. And second: VDOT did not factor in the roads that developers were offering to build as part of their rezoning applications.
“Interestingly enough, they did not take into consideration our network plan, which we believe is the right way to do this,” [Dulles district Supervisor Stephen] Snow said, referring to a package of roads being proffered by several developers. “The didn’t take that into account.”
Translation: Dulles South developers are planning hundreds of millions of dollars worth of transportation improvements as proffers and other contributions.
I’m sure that the Piedmont Environmental Council and other opponents will offer responses to the responses. I’ll do my best to keep up.
Dulles South is shaping up as the hottest zoning/planning controversy in Virginia since the 80s-era controversies over the Manassas Battlefield and the Disney theme park at Haymarket. Watch the sparks fly! I’ll be taking a detailed look at Dulles South in next week’s edition of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine.