Bacon's Rebellion

Democracy Thrives in Sunlight

Did Protesters Spread the Virus? Too Early to Tell

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James A. Bacon
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by James A. Bacon

I have read some speculation that Virginia might see an uptick in COVID-19 cases following the mass protests in defiance of limits on gatherings. Given the delays between the infection of a person, the time at which he or she shows symptoms, and the time he or she is tested and is hospitalized, not to mention the volatility and noise in daily data, it is impossible to address that issue authoritatively. But there are some hints of possibilities….

At the risk of going way out on a limb — we’re talking rhesus monkey here — let me observe that we can discern a flattening in the significant decline in the seven-day moving average of new cases reported. The number of new cases reported this morning, 570, was the lowest in week, but it must be seen in the context of the previous day, which reported 1,284 new cases, one of the highest in recent weeks.

Assuming that the flattening is real, what is driving it? We can get some clues by breaking out the numbers by geographic region.

The Virginia Department of Health website compares Northern Virginia (NoVa) with the Rest of Virginia (RoVa). This graph shows an uptick in the virus in Nova.

But this graph shows a continued downward slope for RoVa.

Could the protest marches have influenced these numbers? On the one hand, a  large number of the marchers in Washington, D.C., hailed from Northern Virginia. On the other hand, there are reasons to be skeptical. First, a large percentage of the protesters were wearing masks. Second, the weather most days was warm and sunny, creating a less hospitable environment for the virus.  Third, there were plenty of protest marches downstate. Moreover, the protesters were overwhelmingly young and healthy with strong immunological systems.

Still, look at who’s been contracting the disease. The 20-to-29 age cohort accounts for 16% of all confirmed cases. The actual incidence may be significantly higher because young people are more likely to be asymptomatic.

The VDH dashboard breaks down the age brackets  for total cases only, which makes it impossible to track age-related trends over time. If the numbers in the 20-to-29 cohort surged in the past few days (allowing time between infection and the onset of symptoms), it would tentatively confirm the protesters-spread-the-disease hypothesis. If there was no surge, we could pretty well discount the theory. VDH has the data. I would love to see an analysis.

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16 responses to “Did Protesters Spread the Virus? Too Early to Tell”

  1. kls59 Avatar
    kls59

    The most salient question in future COVID-19 testing.
    Which activities have you participated in?
    ___ Protests in support of George Floyd
    ___ Phase 2 reopening operations [going to in-door restaurants, etc]

    Those implementing the tests must begin asking this question of patients immediately for transparency and analysis.

    One of two things will happen in the coming two weeks:
    COVID-19 positives will increase, proving the Governor and local officials were idiotic in allowing for these mass protests without enforcing the anti-COVID-19 steps which have been mandated for the past months, or

    COVID-19 positives will not increase, proving the Governor and local officials were idiotic in shutting down and destroying our economy for the past months: the lack of social distancing does not accelerate the spread.

    Then people will argue over the ‘why’ with emotion and prejudices from per-determined stances. The media and leftist will decree the phase 2 reopening premature and scream for another economic closure. Those who want to get back to work will blame the protests.

    Let’s make the unknown knowable.

    Ask the relevant question so we will know which stance was ignorant, ill conceived, and poorly administrated. We will know from facts where the blame should fall.

    1. UpAgnstTheWall Avatar
      UpAgnstTheWall

      – By a wide margin most of the police brutality protesters I saw were wearing masks.
      – This combined with the lower outdoor transmission rate and the fact that the protesters comprise a minority of the overall population means…
      – Phase 2 reopenings will be largely but not wholly responsible for any spike.

      Also, when your only two conclusions lead to people you don’t like being idiotic, you should be careful about calling other people emotional and prejudiced.

      1. Steve Haner Avatar
        Steve Haner

        Goody. Another argument with no data that will become a partisan tennis ball.

        1. UpAgnstTheWall Avatar
          UpAgnstTheWall

          Yeah, life is ambiguous sometimes and you’re not always going to have data. My analysis wasn’t partisan, it was based on a set of falsifiable axioms…if you care to prove them false be my guest.

          But the person name checking the governor and leftists is the one making it partisan, not me, so it’s interesting that I’m the one at whom you choose to level your attempt at a high minded broadside.

        2. Steve Haner Avatar
          Steve Haner

          Right, the other guy is partisan, not you. As it was I meant you both. But with a blog pseudonym intended to refer to mass murder, you need to be ready….

          1. UpAgnstTheWall Avatar
            UpAgnstTheWall

            If by mass murder you mean the words shouted by cops at citizens then you’re more radical than I thought.

            I’m still waiting for you to point out the partisan bias in my chain of logic.

      2. djrippert Avatar
        djrippert

        But, but, but …. the “science”.

        Now the WHO says that asymptomatic carriers very rarely spread the disease. And in WHO – speak “very rarely” means “never”.

        So, a person can exist in one of three states – infected / symptomatic, infected / asymptomatic and uninfected.

        My guess is that symptomatic / infected people didn’t generally protest because they felt sick.

        https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

  2. V N Avatar
    V N

    The incubation time was supposedly 2-14 days from what I saw, so its been more than a week since the riots started. Even more so, only one person from the Ozarks on the Lakes got COVID, so that right there said a lot about the bogus “pandemic”.

    1. djrippert Avatar
      djrippert

      And it’s been since May 1 since Texas started aggressively reopening. Today is June 8. Where is the crisis in Texas?

      1. UpAgnstTheWall Avatar
        UpAgnstTheWall

        Before May 1, Texas’s single highest day of new cases was 1,441. Since May they hit 1,801 on May 16; 1,855 on May 28; 1,941 on May 31; and 1,940 on June 6. They haven’t had a day with fewer than 1,400 new cases for the last week.

        Is that a crisis? Not for me to say – I’m not a public health expert and neither are you – but clearly, aggressively reopening in Texas has not been without consequence.

        1. mbd Avatar
          mbd

          But Texas has been increasing testing pretty dramatically since May 1. Number of cases doesn’t tell you much in isolation.

          1. djrippert Avatar
            djrippert

            Right. The only thing that counts is deaths. If COVID19 made people sick but didn’t kill anybody it would be a nuisance, nothing more. In Texas, deaths from COVID19 peaked on May 14 at 58. That number has fallen since. Yesterday Texas recorded 11 COVID19 deaths – the lowest total since March 31.

            Contrary to liberal hysteria people are not dying in droves because Texas reopened.

            https://www.google.com/search?q=texas+covid19+cases&rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS814US814&oq=texas+covid19+cases&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.4156j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

          2. UpAgnstTheWall Avatar
            UpAgnstTheWall

            I’ll address you both at once.

            Yes, the number of tests has gone up, but so has the test positivity rate, which means the number of absolute cases is growing even as the amount of tests grow.

            Deaths aren’t the only thing that matter – they’re the only thing you’ve decided matter. The previous peak was April 30 with 50 deaths, after that there were three days with 50+ deaths and a trendline of deaths higher than before the reopening. Deaths have gone down in June because – jokes aside – Texans aren’t stupid and the vulnerable saw the writing on the wall and took steps to protect themselves.

            Hospitalizations are up from pre May 1 levels, too. And this doesn’t even begin to address the damage the disease can do to people who don’t die, which is much harder to count.

            Is this a crisis? Again, I don’t know and neither do you, but you don’t get to handwave away evidence you don’t like just because it leads you to a conclusion you don’t want to be true.

        2. MAdams Avatar
          MAdams

          “Yes, the number of tests has gone up, but so has the test positivity rate, which means the number of absolute cases is growing even as the amount of tests grow.”

          If you’ve expanded testing instead of instructing those feeling ill to stay at home of course the percent positive will increase (sic) “test positivity rate”. That’s just simple math.

          How could it be a crisis, the goal was to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the system. That seems to have been achieved around the Nation. There is not 100% positive chance we’ll see a vaccine, an effective one or one that simply only handles this years virus. Sheltering in place is not the answer, it was a mitigation step.

  3. djrippert Avatar
    djrippert

    Texas, as of June 8, had 74,978 confirmed cases and 1,830 deaths with a population of 29 million. Virginia had 51,251 confirmed cases and 1,477 deaths with a population of 8.5 million.

    Despite reopening on May 1 Texas has a case per million rate of 2,585 while Virginia has a case per million rate of 6,029. Deaths per million – Texas: 63, Virginia: 174.

    “Deaths have gone down in June because – jokes aside – Texans aren’t stupid and the vulnerable saw the writing on the wall and took steps to protect themselves.”

    In other words, the disease could be controlled by protecting the vulnerable rather than shuttering the economy.

  4. Reed Fawell 3rd Avatar
    Reed Fawell 3rd

    Don says:

    “Deaths have gone down in June because – jokes aside – Texans aren’t stupid and the vulnerable saw the writing on the wall and took steps to protect themselves.”

    In other words, the disease could be controlled by protecting the vulnerable rather than shuttering the economy.”

    Yes, exactly, the truth emerges at last, despite all the experts’ reams of faulty and ill founded advice, mandates, and modeling projections.

    Meanwhile, in the alternative universe of Virginia, it’s been reported that 56% of all Covid 19 deaths were directly related to the elderly and staff of Virginia supervised nursing homes, while Covid 19 deaths among public in Virginia is estimated at .00007%. Or 7 per one hundred thousand.

    Meanwhile, at the University of Virginia, among its experts, and its army of crony Administrators, UP continues to be Down, and Down stubbornly continues to be Up. For example, this claim from UVA experts:

    “The (UVA) model estimates that the community mitigation strategies have prevented 865,067 confirmed cases in Virginia so far … However, if the rebound is strong and detection does not improve, the model forecasts new confirmed cases will peak at 52,265 per week during week ending July, 26, 2010”

    Another words, UVA wants you to stay scared, do as you are told to do by UVA experts, and UVA as is always the case wants Mo’ Money, A lot Mo’ of your money.

    Of course, surprise, surprise, The Virginia Department of Health endorses the UVA message:

    “The Virginia Department of Health is working to increase testing and is hiring over 1,300 contract tracers, investigators, and other personnel to improve detection. However, we need your help. If Virginia’s do nothing, we expect cases will peak in Virginia at 146, 863 per week ending July 5, 2120.” (All according to UVA model.)

    For more see: https://www.dailyprogress.com/news/uva/virginia-could-peak-at-more-than-5-000-new-covid-19-cases-a-day-this/article_4e2d2b61-8d9b-522b-9be5-29cca641834f.html

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