Development and Sea-Level Rise in the Tarheel State

by James A. Bacon

People love living on the water. They just can’t get enough of it. If they can’t afford to live on the waterfront, they will pay a premium just to live near it. Signs of the human proclivity for water views are evident all around Beaufort, N.C. (pronounced Bow-fort, not Bew-fort), a waterfront town of 4,000 to 5,000. The heart of Beaufort is a charming hamlet dating back to the 1700s. The walkable small-town core with restaurants, boutiques, marinas and quaint historical buildings is the nucleus from which development radiates in all directions.

Coastal North Carolina in these parts, just south of the Outer Banks, is as low-lying and vulnerable to flooding and hurricanes as Tidewater Virginia. I know nothing of what preparations the Tarheel state might be taking in anticipation of the kind of extreme weather events that Jim Sherlock has described in recent posts. I will simply observe that whatever restrictions exist, they don’t seem to be slowing the pace of development on the state’s barrier islands and along its sounds, channels and estuaries.

The photo above shows construction of an affordably priced development within a short bicycle distance from downtown Beaufort. The average elevation, I would guesstimate, is about 10 to 12 feet above sea level (depending upon the tide). The saving grace is that the houses are far enough inland that they are not likely to see any heavy wave action. But a good storm surge will flood them.

The positive aspect of the Carolina approach to coastal development is that waterfront property is accessible to the common man — there is an abundance of trailer parks, apartments, condos and townhouses. Waterfront living is not just for elites.

The downside is that there will be hell to pay at some point. One need not embrace the worst-case global warming scenario to believe that sea levels, which have been rise steadily since the end of the last Ice Age, will continue to push waters inland. I dare say that  North Carolina has more miles of developed coastline than any state outside Florida. I see no sign that the state has been applying the brakes to coastal growth.

Sherlock writes of building hard infrastructure, or “castles,” to protect areas of high-value development. There isn’t much of that in North Carolina. Development is smeared over miles and miles of low- to medium density on fragile and shifting sand foundations, which I expect will be massively expensive to protect. Sherlock also speaks in passing of preserving natural systems — wetlands and the like that can absorb rising tides and buffer against waves. North Carolina has preserved substantial swaths of its coastline but they are in remote areas. I don’t see much to protect the populated coastline.

A third long-term solution to sea-level rise and flooding is to limit development. The question for conservatives and libertarians is to identify mechanisms that reconcile property rights with the public good. Speaking abstractly, I would suggest that people should be able to build where they please as long as they assume the costs and risks associated with locating in flood-prone areas. People should have no expectation that society shall subsidize their flood insurance when they build in vulnerable areas. They should have no expectation that public authorities will continue to repair and maintain roads and utilities in disaster-prone areas at endless expense.

Those are the core principles. One can see them clearly when one is discussing building and development in a neighboring state, not one’s own. The devil, as always is in the details.


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40 responses to “Development and Sea-Level Rise in the Tarheel State”

  1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “The question for conservatives and libertarians is to identify mechanisms that reconcile property rights with the public good.”

    Those mechanisms exist and are called zoning ordinances and they are fully consistent with our Constitution and system of government. They need to be tightened to address the issues you outline and enforced. It is really as simple as that.

    “People should have no expectation that society shall subsidize their flood insurance when they build in vulnerable areas. They should have no expectation that public authorities will continue to repair and maintain roads and utilities in disaster-prone areas at endless expense.”

    Oh but they do and they will. That also needs to change.

  2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “The question for conservatives and libertarians is to identify mechanisms that reconcile property rights with the public good.”

    Those mechanisms exist and are called zoning ordinances and they are fully consistent with our Constitution and system of government. They need to be tightened to address the issues you outline and enforced. It is really as simple as that.

    “People should have no expectation that society shall subsidize their flood insurance when they build in vulnerable areas. They should have no expectation that public authorities will continue to repair and maintain roads and utilities in disaster-prone areas at endless expense.”

    Oh but they do and they will. That also needs to change.

  3. LarrytheG Avatar

    Even when disasters were “pre-climate-change) and somewhat predictable ( I’ll explain below) – There was STILL a moral hazard question if the government interfered with private insurance – which they did starting in 1968. Until that date, FEMA’s primary role was to RESPOND to disasters and give aid after them, including lower costs loans, emergency housing, rebuilding of infrastructure, etc but not private homes.

    Once FEMA got involved in flood insurance, they essentially subsidized the risk to make insurance “more affordable”.

    They also tried a novel non-insurance concept – encourage those flooded to move and only provide flood insurance in the first place if the jurisdiction wrote ordinances to prevent building in the flood plain.

    Even then they lost money hand over fist .

    And that was back when disasters were more or less “predictable” – in that over some period of time – several years, a certain number of tornados, hurricanes, and heavy rain events would occur – but statistically a predictable number even if a given year was higher than normal (other years would be less).

    That made private insurance available to some but not to those in high risk areas – private insurance was good at assessing the risk and was not going to sell it at a loss like FEMA would.

    Now the question is – what IF weather has become LESS predictable?

    what if the ocean IS rising and catastrophic rain events ARE becoming MORE numerous, etc.. what happens to risk assessment?

    1. – Private insurance becomes much more expensive and even more unavailable in some places, especially coastal areas and rivers.

    2. – the FEMA flood insurance program loses even more money and requires even more subsidies OR it needs to take Draconian action, not unlike what private insurance does.

    I did read about the govt-built “castles” and did wonder who would pay if we also needed to build a lot more “castles”. All of us?

    Finally, when a structure is no longer insurable – it affects more than the owner. It affects the jurisdiction that depends on taxes to fund services and infrastructure.

    1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      You have to ask yourself why the government should be in the flood insurance business in the first place.

      Private decisions, private risk and private insurance.

      As for flood protection, that is an inherently governmental function. Common defense is the primary reason why people band together to form governments.

      Flooding knows no political boundaries, just geographical ones.

      That is why local governments need to defer to states and states to the federal government, which needs to be in charge.

      That happens also to be what federal law requires. Waters of the United States has meaning here.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        So the govt should not sell subsidized insurance to those who live in floodways but instead should build “protection” for them instead?

        I’m confused here.

        So all these folks who bought property in places that will flood should expect the govt to put up flood walls and other infrastructure?

        1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
          James C. Sherlock

          No, as I have written before, the federal government completes benefit/cost assessments of proposed projects for federal interest. If the project receives a minimum score of 6:1 benefits over costs, it is eligible to be nominated for Congressional authorization (planning) and appropriations.

          The idyllic small coastal towns like the one Jim described would not make those multiple cuts. If they did, they would have to provide their share of the costs.

          Castles – engineered defenses – non-natural barriers at government expense – can generally only be justified economically in urban areas.

          Power plants, to give one example, are responsible for protecting their own facilities from flooding.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            re: 6 to 1 . Does that mean it delivers $6 in economic benefits for every dollar in cost?

            Does it count preventing a loss of a road or bridge as a “benefit”?

          2. James C. Sherlock Avatar
            James C. Sherlock

            Yes to number 1. The Corps of Engineers runs a very sophisticated and constantly updated economic model to derive the answers. That is why I don’t know the answer to number 2.

            A project has to exceed 6:1 to even be considered of “federal interest”.

            The projects that get funded are often assessed to provide benefit:cost ratios of better than 20:1.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar

            I found the following to be interesting and a bit instructive:

            Officials Seek Long-Term Plan to Save N.C. 12

            https://islandfreepress.org/outer-banks-news/officials-seek-long-term-plan-to-save-n-c-12/

          4. Does it count preventing a loss of a road or bridge as a “benefit”?

            Apparently the COE does [usually] take loss/damage prevention into account:

            https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-319.pdf

            https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-20-43.pdf

            From the document at the 2nd link:

            The monetary benefits most commonly included in the economic analyses of the Corps feasibility studies we reviewed were reduced damages and emergency costs avoided

          5. Does it count preventing a loss of a road or bridge as a “benefit”?

            Apparently the COE does [usually] take loss/damage prevention into account:

            https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-319.pdf

            https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-20-43.pdf

            From the document at the 2nd link:

            The monetary benefits most commonly included in the economic analyses of the Corps feasibility studies we reviewed were reduced damages and emergency costs avoided

  4. Perhaps we need something like the wetlands equivalent of RECRA, the hazardous waste statute, which allows reachback even to a prior seller of a property to remedy contamination. The problem here is the developer offers a beautiful view to the home buyer and walks away with all the profit leaving the potential storm liability for the poor sucker who bought it — and the government who bails the suckers out. What if the developer was still on the hook for some of that liability?

    1. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
      energyNOW_Fan

      You might be thinking about Superfund which has “joint and several” liability. That means that even if 300 companies were involved in creating the problem, only one of the “deep pocket” companies could be held responsible for the whole clean up.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        I’m not sure I’d hold developers responsible. They just market land according to laws and rules and it’s up to the buyer to know and understand what they are buying and a key thing for many is getting a mortgage. Well, most mortgages require flood insurance in flood prone areas and guess who is providing flood insurance? Uncle Sam!

        So Uncle Sam is the real culprit. If Uncle Sam refused to provide the insurance, no sale on the property.

  5. vicnicholls Avatar
    vicnicholls

    Not everyone loves living on the water. If they want to pay for it, fine, but why should we subsidize folks’ requirement to live on the water?

  6. James C. Sherlock Avatar
    James C. Sherlock

    Property rights are the public good. Rights and responsibilities go hand in hand.

    The property owner should absorb the risk, and earn the reward (or loss).

    Government-backed flood insurance is an abomination. Public absorption of private risk is not capitalism, it is one of the many roads to perdition.

    The government’s only job should be to give the property owner and his insurer adequate and accurate information on which to base their decisions.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      Agree but the idea of “Castles” to essentially protect private property and/or infrastructure that serves private property doesn’t seem any better.

      Is the concept of “castles” only for public infrastructure that serves all properties including those not in the flood plain – like water treatment plants and regional highways and bridges?

      If that’s all that is being protected – it’s a very different thing than miles of walls, or similar.

      1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
        James C. Sherlock

        No.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          If castles are NOT just and only for public infrastructure – then are they for private properties also?

          1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
            James C. Sherlock

            Yes, but integrated with an area that in total earns federal interest.

            Larry, read the column and look at the maps. You will see that walls of the new castle in New Orleans encompass both private and public interests.

            The Hampton Roads castles (South and Peninsula) would similarly protect public and private interests.

            As much of Hampton Roads would be protected by the two castles as justified by the economic/strategic analysis.

            For example, parts of each city in South Hampton Roads except Norfolk and Portsmouth would be outside the castle walls, including the southern portions of my own city of Virginia Beach.

            The extent of the walls will be determined by economic/strategic assessments.

            That doesn’t mean the rest of the areas are abandoned to their fate, it just means that they will be protected by natural improvements rather than engineered steel bulwarks and floodgates.

          2. LarrytheG Avatar

            The ACE has a long tradition of building protective infrastructure from flooding but it was based on a premise that floods and such were more or less quantifiable , i.e. 100-year floods and flood ways that were not increasing and expanding.

            And the money is not regular budget. Each project had to get Congressional approval.

            Even after that, that infrastructure DID fail with Katrina and it cost billions to build it back and it is STILL vulnerable to another mega storm like Katrina.

            What Sandy did to New York and New Jersey did not (as far as I know) result in any kind of “Katrina-like” protective infrastructure.

            I’m a sketch on this idea. I’ve not seen or read anything from the COE purporting to develop “castle” type infrastructure for all the Coastal USA.

            Knowing what we know now about sea level rise – such planning should have already started. It would be a massive and very expensive undertaking that would have become a major budget itself in Congress.

            So pretty much a skeptic at this point.

          3. James C. Sherlock Avatar
            James C. Sherlock

            Ida was a megastore like Katrina.

            The pre-Katrina infrastructure in the New Orleans are was levees only. The new system includes all of the modern flood protection systems pioneered by USACE and the Dutch.

            The portions of greater New Orleans inside the castle not only did not flood during Ida, but the pumps associated with the engineered defenses pumped our excess rainwater.

            It is a matter of choosing. Virginia is choosing not to organize the way Louisiana did to get the results Louisiana has gotten. And Virginia has chosen not to play the role of nonfederal sponsor of federal flood control projects.

            Be a skeptic if you wish.

            If you live in Virginia, as we all do, then your skepticism is well founded.

            But don’t blame it on the federal programs.

          4. LarrytheG Avatar

            I can just imagine every urban coastal area up and down the east coast lobbying for a Katrina type infrastructure. It would be trillions of dollars.

            No?

            I don’t think Virginia is going to go to Congress to ask for this without all the other urban coastal areas also wanting their share.

            And I have not seen this yet – from any of the urban coastal areas on the East Coast (or educate me).

            So I remain a skeptic.

            There IS about 20-30 billion for coastal infrastructure in the 3+ trillion dollar proposal, but not trillions… and it’s a 10 year budget proposal.

            I think the Feds are likely to concentrate on their military infrastructure and leave the rest up to the state and their representatives in Congress. Have Warner and Kaine been asked to lobby for Virginia coastal infrastructure?

          5. James C. Sherlock Avatar
            James C. Sherlock

            “I can just imagine every urban coastal area up and down the east coast lobbying for a Katrina type infrastructure. It would be trillions of dollars.”

            Yes, they will. And no, what gets approved for federal funding won’t cost trillions of dollars.

            But the scientific consensus the two most threatened and unprotected urban areas are Miami and Hampton Roads. In both of those areas, the value of the projects will exceed by many times their costs.

            In other words, if Virginia got its act together, we would be at the front of the line.

            But no-one in the federal government is going to drag Virginia to the line.
            And, with the Northam approach, we won’t get there.

            I’m signing off of this discussion.

          6. LarrytheG Avatar

            off topic but potentially interesting to you

            http://jlarc.virginia.gov/pdfs/reports/Rpt455.pdf

  7. FEMA flood insurance rates have been going up and will go higher: https://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance/risk-rating
    “FEMA is updating the National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) risk rating methodology through the implementation of a new pricing methodology calledRisk Rating 2.0.
    The methodology leverages industry best practices and cutting-edge technology to enable FEMA to deliver rates that are actuarily sound, equitable, easier to understand and better reflect a property’s flood risk.”

    Additional note: “Existing statutory limits on rate increases require that most rates not increase more than 18% per year.” 18% can be a pretty penny for those with already high rates. But there are also going to be loopholes: “FEMA will continue to offer premium discounts for pre-FIRM subsidized and newly mapped properties.”

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      So I’m still a skeptic because even though FEMA says they will not employ individual property actuarial risk, the question remains, why is the government doing this and not the private sector?

      We actually did check into flood insurance because we live near a creek but 100 feet away from the 100-year flood shown on FEMA maps.

      What we found out is that FEMA/NFIP does not actually sell the insurance, but instead insurance companies do and apparently how it works is that the Government essentially subsidizes the insurance premium.

      Think about this. I have no idea how much the insurance would cost if not subsidized, but even with the subsidy, it was several hundred dollars a year for what would be a 500 year (or higher) flood.

      The whole idea is problematical in my view.

  8. William O'Keefe Avatar
    William O’Keefe

    Zoning and removing the federal subsidy are two actions to reduce the risk. But let’s remember two things. First, most of the Netherlands is below sea level and the Dutch have figured out how to counter flooding. Second, according to EPA since 1998 sea level has been rising .13 inches per year. That hardly enough to constitute a near term threat.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      .13 per year times 20+ years = ?

      and the Netherlands is extremely worried about additional ocean rise:

      When will the Netherlands disappear?
      The low-lying country has centuries of experience managing water. Now climate change is threatening to flood it completely.

      https://www.politico.eu/article/when-will-the-netherlands-disappear-climate-change/

    2. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      The Netherlands area is 16,000 square mile. Florida alone (most of which is at risk from rising sea levels) is 66,000 square miles. The Netherlands Delta Works cost some $8 billion – or 20% of their GDP. That seems pretty threatening to me.

    1. Paul Sweet Avatar

      0.13 inches per year = 13″ per century. One meter is about 300 years rise, and 3 meters is about 900 years rise. DOD has plenty of time to adapt.

      Storm surge is another story. It can happen almost any time with little warning.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        Is the degree of storm surge higher if sea level is higher?

        1. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
          energyNOW_Fan

          Sure I assume so. But if you look at Katrina, for example, storm surge max I believe was 27.8 feet, so the sea level rise is secondary in some cases.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar

            How about Sandy?

      2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        OK but this gets into, what is the assumption for the future? Some states are adding a projection of + 3 to 5-ft sea level for climate change by about 2100.

        The reality is we are not yet seeing that extreme, and until we start to actually see that enormously rapid increase in sea level, it is business as usual for shore home buyers.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar

          Not if they can’t get flood insurance……..

  9. Merchantseamen Avatar
    Merchantseamen

    Here is my .02 cents. there is only so much water in the world. It is in three states, Gas, Liquid and Solid. Of all the comments below, no one pointed this out. Why not?

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      It’s THE issue. Global warming = melting of ice sheets = more in oceans which are warmer and put more in atmosphere which comes down in storm events.

      no?

      1. Merchantseamen Avatar
        Merchantseamen

        No….The climate is going to do what it is going to do. They figured out Hurricanes many years ago. Have them in all the hemispheres as they act like relief valves. The planet(s) are in continuous flux always moving always changing never resting. Our tilt, our orbital wobble, causes all kinds of “climate change”. Follow the money who is getting rich on “Climate Change”. You know the Sun will burn out in about 10 Billion years. Better start planning now.

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