Bacon's Rebellion

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C’Ville Bypass Won’t Reduce Congestion, Consultant Says

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Spending $197 million to complete construction of the Charlottesville Bypass would do nothing to improve traffic congestion along the bypassed three-mile stretch of U.S. 29 north of Charlottesville, and it would induce development and traffic growth north of the South Fork of the Rivanna River, making traffic conditions there worse than they are already.

Those are among the conclusions of a review of official Virginia Department of Transportation traffic forecasts for the Charlottesville Bypass by Norman Marshall, a Vermont-based traffic engineering consultant hired by the Southern Environmental Law Center. The SELC issued a press release and released Marshall’s report earlier this afternoon.

Marshall based his analysis on a 1990 VDOT report on the grounds that, despite its flaws, the research was more comprehensive and authoritative than more recent updates. Even if the bypass is built, the Level of Service on the bypassed portion of U.S. 29 would remain an F, Marshall notes. Thus, the putative benefits of the project would accrue not to local drivers but to thru traffic — trucks and motorists passing through the Charlottesville area to another destination.

What the 1990 VDOT study doesn’t take into account is the phenomenon of “induced demand,” says Marshall. The bypass would tie into U.S. 29 just north of the South Fork of the Rivanna River, an area that has seen considerable development since the study. There are already nine traffic lights on a 6-mile stretch north of the river with proposals for three more. In 2003, Albemarle County approved construction of another 3,000 residential units plus 3 million square feet of commercial space in that area, much of which has yet to be built. In the meantime, there is increasing development further north in Greene County, where many people live and use U.S. 29 to drive to work in Charlottesville.

Writes Marshall: “If the 29 bypass makes travel to and from areas in Albemarle and Greene Counties in the greater Route 29 corridor more accessible, it will encourage both residential and commercial development in those areas. This increased development will cause increased traffic volumes, again partially offsetting any benefit of the project.”

Marshall says that VDOT should analyze alternative investments, such as grade-separated intersections at Rio Road, Hydraulic Road and Greenbrier Drive as well as other other elements listed in the Places29 master plan.

I have asked VDOT for a response, which I will append to this post if I receive one.

— JAB

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14 responses to “C’Ville Bypass Won’t Reduce Congestion, Consultant Says”

  1. Andrea Epps Avatar
    Andrea Epps

    I’m not trying to complain (at least until I read the entire report) but
    1. Vermont. Generally understood to be really conservative in modeling anything for land use and transportation.
    2. Vermont firm reviewing a VDOT study that is too old and giving opinions.
    Might be a good thing, might not.
    3. If they are going to use transportation engineers, why didn’t SELC hire the firm to do a study?

  2. Andrea Epps Avatar
    Andrea Epps

    Oh, and a question:
    Is this road proposal being pushed by any particular landowners within the service area?

  3. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    The impetus for the project is not coming from local landowners or developers, believe it or not. It seems to be driven by business interests in Danville/Lynchburg who are frustrated by the congestion on one of their major highway connections, as well as local retail/business interests.

  4. Groveton Avatar
    Groveton

    “Spending $197 million to complete construction of the Charlottesville Bypass would do nothing to improve traffic congestion along the bypassed three-mile stretch of U.S. 29 north of Charlottesville, …”.

    Think about that statement. How could it possibly be true? People heading down Rt 29 to Danville and Lynchburg will certainly take the bypass. And that will reduce congestion on the “old Rt 29”.

    Maybe it won’t do enough …. maybe it’s not worth $197M … there are legitimate arguments. However, “do nothing”? Please.

    Then, there’s this …

    “Writes Marshall: “If the 29 bypass makes travel to and from areas in Albemarle and Greene Counties in the greater Route 29 corridor more accessible, it will encourage both residential and commercial development in those areas. This increased development will cause increased traffic volumes, again partially offsetting any benefit of the project.”

    Partially offsetting any benefit?

    I thought the bypass would DO NOTHING to improve traffic congestion.

    How do you partially offset nothing?

  5. James A. Bacon Avatar
    James A. Bacon

    Groveton, I apologize for not making myself clear enough. The bypass would do nothing to improve congestion on U.S. 29 — the Level of Service is an “F” now, and it would remain an “F” even with the bypass. The only things that can improve the Level of Service are the improvements described in the Places29 plan, most importantly the three grade-separated exchanges at Rio, Hydraulic and Greenbrier… which will NOT get built. So, local motorists get hosed.

    The bypass will improve service for “thru” traffic, accounting for roughly 10% of the total traffic. However, there will not be as much relief as anticipated. The project will induce additional growth north of the Rivanna River, leading to more congestion there — costing “thru” drivers more time. So, even the 10% that benefits from the project will see those benefits erode over time.

  6. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    if you build a limited access road from the center of Charlottesville to the northern less developed suburbs – the result is going to be the same as if you build a western “bypass” for NoVa.

    the initial years of the bypass will be good but ultimately it will end up like the roads to the suburbs in NoVa.

    VDOT says they are instituting access management for 29 business.

    How do they intend to prevent the new bypass from being co-opted as a dedicated road to the suburbs?

    Let’s include in the environmental study a toll version of that road and see how it affects projected future traffic…

  7. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    Induced demand is a theory long since abandoned by serious traffic analysts.

    Besides, we are so far behind that latent demand is a far bigger problem than Induced demand.

  8. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    Induced demand is a theory long since abandoned by serious traffic analysts.

    Besides, we are so far behind that latent demand is a far bigger problem than Induced demand.

  9. Andrea Epps Avatar
    Andrea Epps

    The current ADT does not seem to justify this kind of investment at this point. (If the folks over there don’t want this bypass, they can move it over here, where I can think of at least two roads currently carrying between 70-80,000 trips per day that could use it).
    But when you add in the development potential, it seems as if some form of future congestion relief beyond three grade separated crossings is warranted. It also seems as if they need to look at the location/alignment of the bypass and make some modifications to accommodate the development potential to the north. They could redesign the whole thing and make better use of the road, depending on the amount of right of way they have already obtained.
    I have seen how a new facility such as this can make a growth situation worse. The BOS/City Council have the ability to prevent it, they just need the will. Their action or lack thereof will impact the potential induced demand, which most engineers I have worked with build into the modeling when looking at future land use. This point also strengthens the need for an updated study. The differences in land use in the area between the last study and today are going to affect the output of the model. There is no way around this, and if they use the comp plan alone the numbers will not accurately project future volume.
    I would also like to know how nine lights within six miles have been approved and understand how they were warranted by VDOT. Someone needs to do some consolidation and if possible, they need to build parallel roads on both sides of 29.
    So I see the points they are making and I think some of them have merit.
    Albermarle, the City and the TJPDC are doing joint regional project. They should include this with that.

    But, to say that the future through volume is that overstated is wrong.
    Because of all of the development potential, the future volume on the bypass will be there. And because the bypass is so short and the LOS on 29 isn’t projected to be much better, there is also the possibility of the local trips using the bypass to bypass all of the lights and that will change the ADT on both roads.
    In any event, it is never easy to predict the route future traffic will use. I would like to see how VDOT responds to this, if at all.

  10. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    those who advocate and build roads will argue that there is such thing as induced demand that it’s latent demand bu clearly when a new limited access road is built from an urbanized area to outlying regions – it directs land-development.

    this is not theory. Any air photo of the interstate highways that go out from the urban areas have growth clustered around the exits and proximity.

    the same thing is going to happen to the Cville Bypass. It will become the way to buy a home in the surburbs and get to/from work quickly – until of course sprawling development eventually makes that road – just like the urban interstates – unusable for folks outside the region trying to travel through the region.

    the only way I see to keep that from happening is to make it a toll road.

    people trying to get through CVille will pay the toll… gladly… not to get tangled up in Cville traffic.

    people who want to move to the suburbs will not pay the toll on a daily basis or at least they’ll incorporate that cost into any gains they might get from moving to cheaper digs in the suburbs.

    The 197 million gives one a perspective into the cost if we allocated that cost to people that live in Cville and Albemarle.

    Perhaps 200K population. that’s about $1000 per capita that I doubt seriously few people in Cville or Arbemarle would agree to pay out of their own pockets so the state takes that money from other Virginians – which is also the reason why most Virginian’s do not want to pay a higher gas tax – they fear the money will go to other localities and not theirs and indeed it’s true.

  11. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    In this climate, what could possibly be worse about a growth situation?

    Bring it on.

    Can’t build your way out of congestion? Compare 28 between 66 and 7 from 15 years ago to today.

  12. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    Its a thousand per capita over thirty years, during which time the population doubles. Works out to $20 per year, and a whole lot less than what tolls would cost.

    Plus maintenance, of course.

  13. Hydra Avatar
    Hydra

    Why is it that when metro directs development it is a benefit and when roads direct development it is a disbenefit?

    Correct way to do this is count all development t as a benefit, reduced by the cost of infrastructure to support it.

    Measure consistently and you will find yourself arguing for different results.

  14. larryg Avatar
    larryg

    would Charlottesville use 200 million of it’s credit rating to finance this road and tax people $20 a year to pay for it?

    this is one road…. and one capital project….

    How about this?

    would the good people of Charlottesville vote in a referenda to support such a proposal ?

    I bet not.

    I bet the only way this road has support is if someone other that the people of Charlottesville is perceived to be paying for it.

    How do you tax people for infrastructure ? telling them that someone else will pay the tax?

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